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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review - December 12, 2017
 

I. Yesterday’s News
International News

1. Newly launched bitcoin futures on Monday suggested that traders expect the cryptocurrency's blistering price gains to slow in the coming months, even as it blasted to a fresh record high of $17,270 in the spot market. Chicago-based derivatives exchange Cboe Global Markets launched the futures late on Sunday. The one-month bitcoin contract opened at 2300 GMT on Sunday at $15,460. By late afternoon on Monday in New York, it was trading at $18,650, roughly 8 percent above bitcoin's spot price of $16,900 on the Bitstamp exchange. Given bitcoin has almost tripled in value over the past month, and was up more than 15 percent on Monday alone, the futures pricing suggested investors see price increases moderating. Backers said the U.S. market debut would confer greater legitimacy on the volatile cryptocurrency and encourage its wider use.

2. A Bangladeshi man Akayed Ullah set off a homemade pipe bomb strapped to his body in a crowded New York City commuter hub during the morning rush hour on Monday. New York Mayor Bill DeBlasio said it was "an attempted terrorist attack." Three people, including a police officer, suffered minor injuries. The police think the explosion was caused by a pipe bomb. New York governor Andrew Cuomo said the weapon used in Monday’s attack was “amateur-level”. Following the explosion, U.S. Treasury debt prices rallied on safe-haven buying, while the dollar pared losses, safe-haven currencies the Japanese yen and Swiss franc had also gained.

3. UK Prime Minister Theresa May hailed "a new sense of optimism" in Brexit talks, telling parliament on Monday an agreement to move negotiations on to future trade ties is progress and will reassure those concerned Britain may leave with no deal. But she warned that the government will only pay a financial settlement if Britain and the EU secure a future trade deal.

4. U.S. President Donald Trump's trade chief said on Monday that the World Trade Organization (WTO) is losing its focus on trade negotiations in favor of litigation, and was going too easy on wealthier developing countries such as China. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has said he does not want major agreements out of the meeting, voiced concern that the WTO was becoming a litigation-centered organization. Too many countries were not following WTO rules, he complained, and too many wealthier members had been given unfair exemptions as developing countries.

Domestic News

5. Fan Gang, a member of the PBOC monetary policy committee, was quoted as saying by the China Securities Journal on Saturday, that China’s monetary policy will remain neutral, and there is neither catalyst nor tightening in the future. Chinese economy lingered at lows in the past two years, and will keep a growth rate at 6.5-7 percent this year.

6. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the country to accelerate implementation of big data strategy to better serve social and economic development and improve people's lives. Efforts should be made to advance national big data strategy, improve digital infrastructure, promote integration and sharing of digital resources, and safeguard data security, Xi said during a collective study session of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee's Political Bureau on Friday.

7. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Monday announced a loan of $250 million to China to reduce its dependence on coal by 650,000 tons annually through connecting around 216,750 rural households to a natural gas distribution network. The Beijing Air Quality Improvement and Coal Replacement Project is expected to be completed by 2021.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market

The U.S. dollar retraced most of its early weakness on Monday before the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates on Wednesday, though concerns about tepid inflation were seen weighing on the greenback. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was last down 0.09 percent at 93.82, after earlier falling as low as 93.666. Safe-haven currencies the Japanese yen and Swiss franc had also gained after the explosion at New York’s Port Authority. The dollar was last down 0.01 percent at 113.47 yen and down 0.22 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.99 francs. Bitcoin was up around 16 percent above 17,000 on the Luxembourg-based Bitstamp exchange. The most-traded futures contract opened at $15,460 before leaping to a high of $18,850. It last stood at $17,900.

2. Home Market

China's yuan lingered around last session’s closing prices against the U.S. dollar in the morning session on Monday, while the official midpoint rates snapped a ten-day losing streak. A firmer dollar index had an impact on the guide prices and pushed up the yuan index. But investors stayed on the sidelines, awaiting further clues from Fed’s policy meeting this week.

Precious Metals

Gold steadied below $1,250 an ounce on Monday after its biggest weekly drop in more than six months as markets anticipated an interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. Spot gold was down at $1,241.87 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled down $1.50, or 0.1 percent, at $1,246.90 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil

Oil prices rose on Monday, overcoming declines early in the session, after a North Sea pipeline shut for repairs and investors focused on commodities following an explosion in New York. Brent crude futures settled up $1.29, or about 2 percent, at $64.69 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $57.99 a barrel, 63 cents or 1 percent above their last settlement. The difference between the two benchmarks was the greatest since late October, as Brent rallied after the shutdown of the pipeline that carries the biggest of the five North Sea crude oil streams that underpin the benchmark.

2.Base Metals

Copper prices gained for a fourth straight session on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and data from top consumer China that indicated higher demand. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.5 percent, its highest intraday jump in nearly two months, to close at $6,670 a tonne. London Metal Exchange zinc was 1.4 percent higher at $3,125 by the end of trade. LME aluminium closed 0.5 percent higher at $2,002 a tonne, nickel ended 2.7 percent higher at $11,240, lead ended the session up 1.6 percent at $2,488 and tin finished 0.3 percent lower at $19,400.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds

U.S. Treasury debt prices were little changed on Monday after rallying earlier in the session on safe-haven buying following an explosion in midtown Manhattan which New York Mayor Bill de Blasio described as an "attempted terrorist attack." Overall investors were hesitant to extend current positions ahead of the U.S. 30-year bond supply and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies in New York. U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields fell as low as 2.35 percent on safe-haven demand before they retraced back to 2.386 percent by afternoon trading. U.S. 30-year bond yields were last at 2.773 percent, slightly down from 2.775 percent late on Friday. Three-year note yields rose to 1.940 percent, up from Friday's 1.915 percent.

2. Chinese bonds

The cash bond yields and IRS in China’s interbank market rose sharply in the morning session. 10-year CDB active bond yields regained the ground of 4.80 percent, up 6 bps from the previous session. The Treasury bond futures also gaped down, with its 10-year benchmark contracts falling over 0.3 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities

Wall Street indexes closed higher on Monday and the biggest drivers were technology and energy sectors as oil prices rose and investors waited for an expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike later in the week. Technology stocks were back in favor with the biggest boost from Apple Inc as investors eyed a continuation of strong fundamentals in the sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.87 points, or 0.23 percent, to 24,386.03, the S&P 500 gained 8.49 points, or 0.32 percent, to 2,659.99 and the Nasdaq Composite added 35.00 points, or 0.51 percent, to 6,875.08.

2. Hong Kong Equities

Hong Kong stocks rose the most in nearly three weeks on Monday, as index heavyweight Tencent rebounded for the third consecutive session. At close of trade, the Hang Seng index was up 325.44 points or 1.14 percent at 28,965.29. Tencent rose 2.9 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index rose 1.26 percent to 11,431.62.

3. China Equities

Chinese stocks closed higher for the second consecutive day on Monday, led by software and IT sector. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the ground of 3,300, and is expected to keep rebounding amid relatively loose environment. But Thursday’s macro economic report and an interest rate hike from U.S. central bank would weigh on the market.


(2017-12-12)
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