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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-November 9, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan on Wednesday left the door open to a possible delay in implementing lower tax rates for corporations, s lawmakers try to overcome differences. The U.S. Senate will not release its version of a tax reform bill on Thursday, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing a senior Republican aide. The U.S. Senate is still on track to release on Thursday its version of a bill to overhaul the nation's tax code, a congressional source said.

2. New Zealand's central bank on Thursday said added fiscal stimulus and a lower local dollar would lead to faster inflation and likely an earlier rise in interest rates, sending the currency 1 percent higher. While holding rates steady at 1.75 percent as expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said policies proposed by the new Labour government could boost economic growth by around half a percentage point in each of the next three years.

3. Protectionist sentiment has not yet gone beyond mere words, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday, but would hurt Asian economies with open and free markets if it did. Lagarde brushed off the concerns of some investors that the divergent monetary paths of major central banks could disrupt Asian capital flows, stressing that policymakers had the tools and means of communication needed to prevent market upheaval. The IMF head said there had been no massive capital outflows from Asia thanks to central bankers' cautious approach and clear communication around their policy shifts.

4. Bank of Japan board member Yukitoshi Funo on Wednesday stressed the need to continue the BOJ's current easing programme as its 2 percent inflation target remained distant, although price momentum was being firmly maintained. "It is important that the bank continue to tenaciously pursue powerful monetary easing under QQE with yield curve control," Funo said. He also said it was important to watch developments in firms' price-setting behaviour and a possible delay in the increase of consumers' inflation expectations.

Domestic News
5. China's exports and import growth eased in October with exports rising at a slower pace, but import growth beating forecasts in a sign domestic and foreign demand remained robust that analysts say will reduce factory output and crimp overall economic growth. Exports are contributing to China's economic growth once again. October exports rose 6.9 percent from a year earlier, slightly lagging analysts' forecast of a 7.2 percent increase. Imports grew 17.2 percent year-on-year in October, beating forecast of 16.0 percent growth. The nation's overall trade surplus for October was $38.17 billion, according to a Reuters calculation of data from the Administration of Customs. Expectations centred on a surplus of $39.5 billion.

6. The trial replacement of business taxes with a value-added tax in all sectors reduced taxes by CNY1.0639 trillion between its rollout in May last year and September this year, citing State Administration of Taxation information. The program cut CNY575 billion worth of taxes from January to September this year. An average of 207,000 new taxpayers in the construction, real estate, financial and service industries joined the tax base each month in the first three quarters of this year, compared with 84,000 per month last year.

7. China's official media said that international society shall safeguard the peace and stability of Korea Peninsula and push forward the movement toward denuclearization by dialogue and negotiation. U.S. and China share the same benefits in this respect and shall respect each other and stay close communication and coordination to properly solve the nuclear problem in North Korea, People's Daily said.

8. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee unanimously backed new sanctions targeting Chinese banks that do business with North Korea on Tuesday, just before President Donald Trump visits Beijing for the first time since taking office. As well as strengthening existing sanctions and congressional oversight, the measure will target foreign financial institutions - in China and elsewhere - that provide services to those subject to North Korea-related sanctions by the U.S. Congress, a presidential order or U.N. Security Council resolution.

9. China plans to allow global banks to take a stake of up to 51 percent in their onshore securities joint ventures for the first time and tie up with local non-financial firms, people familiar with the matter said. The move, if implemented, would form a key part of China's pledge to ease foreign ownership curbs and would allow banks including Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS to bolster their presence in the securities business — from underwriting to trading — in the world's second-largest economy.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar slipped to a more than one-week low against the yen on Wednesday, pressured by worries over possible delays to President Donald Trump's tax reform plans. The dollar was down 0.19 percent to 113.78 yen. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.04 percent at 94.875. The British pound weakened against the dollar, weighed down by a spiraling political drama in Westminster and growing doubts over Prime Minister Theresa May's ability to deliver a good Brexit deal.

2. Home Market
China's yuan edged down against the U.S. Dollar, following the lower official midpoints, in the morning session on Wednesday. U.S. President Donald Trump started to visit China. But the market was muted as foreign exchange is not the focus of his visit. Seeing balanced forex settlement, Yuan is expected to extend two-way volatility in the near term.

Precious Metals
Gold rose on Wednesday, hovering near a three-week high as the dollar retreated on expectations of possible delays in long-awaited U.S. tax reforms. Spot gold was up at $1,280.91 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $7.90, or 0.6 percent, at $1,283.70 per ounce. In other precious metals, palladium was up 2.4 percent at $1,016 an ounce, after hitting its highest since 2001 at $1,019. Palladium's premium over platinum hit $85 per ounce, also its highest since May 2001. Meanwhile, silver was up 0.9 percent at $17.11 an ounce while platinum was up 1.2 percent at $933.60 an ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled slightly lower on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed rising domestic crude production, a surprise build in U.S. stockpiles and a decline in monthly Chinese crude imports, a triple blow that was offset somewhat by rising tensions in the Middle East. Brent futures fell 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $63.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 39 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $56.81 per barrel.

2.Base Metals
The price of aluminium slipped further on Wednesday as investors judged its recent rally as being mainly driven by speculators rather than supply/demand factors. Other base metals were pressured by weak imports in top metals consumer China. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange shed 1.1 percent to close at $2,109 a tonne. Benchmark LME nickel rose 0.4 percent to end at $12,700 a tonne. LME benchmark copper rose 0.4 percent to end at $6,855 a tonne. LME zinc gained 0.8 percent to finish at $3,192 a tonne. Lead added 0.4 percent to end at $2,506.50 a tonne while tin shed 0.5 percent to $19,475.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Wednesday with the yield curve close to its flattest level in a decade, as investors reduced their existing bond holdings to make room for this week's government and corporate bond supply. The yield spread between two-year and 10-year Treasuries was 68.0 basis points. Earlier in the session it contracted to 66.7 basis points, the tightest since November 2007, Reuters data showed. On the open market, the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 2.0 basis points at 2.327 percent. The 30-year bond yield was up 1.6 basis point at 2.786 percent in late U.S. Trading. The two-year yield increased 1.6 basis points to 1.645 percent.

2. Chinese bonds
Yields of China's cash bonds rose sharply in China's interbank bond market in the morning session on Tuesday, with the yields of 10-year CDB active bonds crossing over 4.58 percent, yields of 10-year Treasury bonds edging up, while Treasury bond futures turning lower. China's bonds sustained yesterday's weakness on bearish sentiment. Market drivers were little changed, while foreign trade data was muted.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street closed at a record high on Wednesday as videogame makers rallied and Apple's market value climbed above $900 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 6.13 points or 0.03 percent to end at 23,563.36, while the S&P 500 gained 3.74 points or 0.14 percent to 2,594.38. The Nasdaq Composite added 21.34 points or 0.32 percent to 6,789.12.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks retreated from a 10-year peak on Wednesday as investors took profit from a rally in tech stocks although the red-hot debut by digital publisher China Literature kept sentiment in the wider market buoyant. The Hang Seng index dropped 0.3 percent, to 28,907.60 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.6 percent, to 11,576.13. Earlier in the session, the HSI rose by as much as 0.5 percent to its highest since December 2007.

3. China Equities
China's stocks bounced off highs on Wednesday, but managed to close in the positive territory, led by brokers on solid import and export report. But selling pressure emerged, dragging the index down. The Shanghai Composite Index closed 1.89 points or 0.06 percent higher, while the CSI 300 index ended down 0.15 percent to 4,048.01.


(2017-11-09)
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