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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-October 20, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. President Donald Trump has concluded interviews with the five candidates he is considering to chair the Federal Reserve and could announce a decision as early as next week, a source familiar with the process said on Thursday. Trump met with current Fed chair Janet Yellen on Thursday. That meeting "went well," the source said, adding that Trump had not made up his mind one way or the other about his list. "I don't think he's leaning yet," the source said. Other contenders to lead the U.S. central bank are top Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn, Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Stanford University economics professor John Taylor. Powell, who is viewed as representing a continuation of Yellen's gradualist approach to raising interest rates, along with Warsh, are seen as the top contenders.

2. Spain's central government said on Thursday it would suspend Catalonia's autonomy and impose direct rule after the region's leader threatened to go ahead with a formal declaration of independence if Madrid refused to hold talks. In a move unprecedented since Spain returned to democracy in the late 1970s, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he would hold a special cabinet meeting on Saturday that could trigger the move.

3. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped 22,000 to its lowest level in more than 44-1/2 years last week, pointing to a rebound in job growth after a hurricane-related decline in employment in September. The labor market outlook was also bolstered by another report on Thursday showing a measure of factory employment in the mid-Atlantic region racing to a record high in October.

4. Oil producers are working to build consensus on extending their deal to reduce supplies, OPEC's secretary general said on Thursday, with the potential for continuation throughout 2018 forming a basis for talks. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, the OPEC president, and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak "are taking cue from the open statement of President Putin and engaging the rest of the participating countries ... to build consensus before Nov. 30", Barkindo said.

Domestic News
5. China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Thursday that it is a long process to allow the market play a bigger role in determining the exchange rate of the yuan and time is not ripe for exchange rate reform despite of a move toward more opening. He said the trading range of the Chinese yuan exchange rate is not a key issue at the moment, and that the width of the current yuan exchange rate band rarely constrains supply and demand, adding that leverage rate will drop fast as long as we take good control of the deleveraging process.

6. The latest data comes as China's economy remains on track to meet the government's growth target of about 6.5 percent this year, despite that the economic growth slowed down in the third quarter. The troika was more balance, echoing President Xi Jinping's opening speech in the 19th National Congress that China looks to move from high-speed to high-quality growth.

7. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a guidance on using price leverage and water quota to reign in water usage, requiring local governments to design specific plan on progressive tariff scheme to punish water intensive users by the end of June 2018, and implement the tiered pricing across the board before the end of 2020.

8. The NDRC warned that power outages in natural gas could be "serious" this winter as China will be heated by gas rather than coal, underscoring worries that the country's insufficient infrastructure and construction of pipelines. Colder weather later in the season would be more challenging because it is harder to pull gas from storage.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The euro climbed to the highest in nearly a week on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields fell, pulling back from a two-year high, with the dollar weakening further late in the day on a report that President Donald Trump was leaning toward Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The euro rose to $1.1858, its highest since last Friday.

2. Home Market
China's yuan edged down against the dollar in the morning session on Thursday, dampened by buying demand and economic data. The dollar index pulled back overnight, but was lifted in Asia trading; while brisk mid-month buying demand dragged yuan down, trader said. Yuan is widely expected to keep wide rangebound in the near term, with resistance at 6.7.

Precious Metals
Gold prices recovered on Thursday from the more than one-week low they had reached overnight as a rally in both the dollar and equities ran out of steam, but the precious metal remained vulnerable to further declines. Gold was up at $1,289.40 an ounce, after earlier hitting its lowest since Oct. 9 at $1,276.22. Gold has lost 6 percent since Sept. 8. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $7, or 0.6 percent, at $1,290 per ounce, hitting $1,277.60, its lowest since Oct. 6.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday, breaking four days of gains, pressured by larger-than-expected product inventories in the United States and profit-taking after a recent run-up in markets. Brent crude settled down 92 cents, or 1.6 percent, at $57.23 a barrel. The global benchmark is still about 30 percent above its mid-year levels. U.S. light crude settled down 75 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $51.29, but is still nearly 25 percent higher than June's lows.

2.Base Metals
Copper prices fell for a third straight day on Thursday after data showed economic growth in China, the world's biggest metals consumer, was in line was expectations. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 0.3 percent down at $6,967 a tonne, taking losses since Monday's high of $7,177 to nearly 3 percent. LME aluminium closed with a 1.6 percent gain at $2,153 a tonne. Nickel closed 0.8 percent up at $11,740 a tonne, zinc finished 0.2 percent lower at $3,114, lead was down 2 percent at $2,470 and tin fell 1.2 percent to $19,850.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as U.S. stock prices stalled near record highs and on a report U.S. President Donald Trump is leaning to nominate someone who is seen unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's current easy policy stance. The two-year yield also scaled back from a near nine-year peak as some traders booked profits on bearish bond bets tied to expectations of reduced stimulus from major central banks. The two-year Treasury note yield was down 2.4 basis points at 1.539 percent after reaching 1.571 percent, the highest since October 2008, Reuters data showed.

2. Chinese bonds
China's central bank injected 100 billion yuan into the open market for the third consecutive day in the second day of the 19th National Congress. Liquidity in China's inter-bank market remained loose.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The Dow and S&P 500 eked out record closing highs on Thursday, turning higher at the last minute after a Politico report that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is the leading candidate for the nominee for Fed chair.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks on Thursday fell by the most in over two months, triggered by a slump in property shares. Also denting sentiment was news China's economic growth eased slightly in the third quarter, with investors scrambling to take profits in recently outperforming sectors such as auto and telecom. The Hang Seng index fell 1.9 percent, its biggest one-day drop since mid-August, to close at 28,159.09 points.

3. China Equities
China's stocks fell to an over half-an-month-low in a choppy trading on Thursday, as investors stayed on the sidelines on disappointing economic data. Defensive names and blue-chips, led by health care, insurance, white wine, transportation and logistics sector, bucked the weaker trend, while cyclical sector remained weak. The Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3,370.17, down 11.62 points or 0.34 percent, not far from previous lows at 3,348.94 hit on September 29.


(2017-10-20)
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