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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-September 21, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but signaled it still expects one more increase by the end of the year despite a recent bout of low inflation. New economic projections released after the Fed's two-day policy meeting showed 11 of 16 officials see the "appropriate" level for the federal funds rate to be in a range between 1.25 percent and 1.50 percent by the end of 2017. The Fed, as expected, also said it would begin in October to reduce its approximately $4.2 trillion in holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities by initially cutting up to $10 billion each month from the amount of maturing securities it reinvests. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference after the end of the meeting that the fall in inflation this year remained a mystery, adding that the central bank was ready to change the interest rate outlook if needed. Financial market was muted to the statement and forecast. The U.S. Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in December and raise borrowing costs three more times in 2018, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank will also reduce the size of its asset stock pile by about $1.4 trillion over the next several years as it seeks to restore a normal environment for monetary policy, according to the poll of Wall Street's top banks taken after the Fed's latest policy meeting.

2. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged on Wednesday to implement "daring policies" targeting taxes, the budget and regulations to promote domestic investment as well as promising to push for further corporate governance reforms. Abe, in a speech to investors at the New York Stock Exchange offered no firm details of the promised reforms, but said he was "absolutely" confident his government could deliver changes that would offset a dwindling population and other challenges facing the world's third-largest economy. Abe made a plea to investors in the audience to put money into Japan's equity markets. "I will invest the entirety of my political resources to open up the future of Japan," he said.

3. U.S. home resales fell to their lowest in a year in August as Hurricane Harvey depressed activity in Houston and a perennial shortage of properties on the market sidelined buyers. The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales decreased 1.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units last month. That was the lowest level since August 2016. Economists had forecast sales rising 0.3 percent to a 5.46 million-unit rate.

4. Growth rates among the world's major economies are synchronising at levels not seen in years as the euro zone catches up with United States, the OECD said on Wednesday in an update of its forecasts. The global economy is set for growth this year of 3.5 percent before reaching 3.7 percent next year, up marginally from estimates in June and the best rate since 2011, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said. The Paris-based policy forum raised its outlook for euro zone growth this year to 2.1 percent, up from 1.8 percent the last time the OECD issued forecasts and putting it on par with the United States, whose forecast of 2.1 percent was unchanged. Among the major economies not within the 35-nation OECD, India was a rarity in seeing its estimates cut. India's growth estimate was cut to 6.7 percent from 7.3 percent previously, due to the impact of reforms on goods and services tax. China, on the other hand, was looking stronger with its growth revised up to 6.8 percent for 2017 and 6.6 percent for 2018.

5. Apple Inc on Wednesday conceded its latest smartwatch unveiled a week ago has problems with its most important feature: the ability to make phone calls and access data without an iPhone nearby. Several prominent reviewers said Wednesday they could not recommend the device because of a wifi glitch that causes cellular connectivity problems. Apple said the watch can experience LTE connectivity problems when it connects to open wi-fi networks that require a login screen. The mixed reviews weighed on Apple shares, which closed down about 1.68 percent at $156.07.

Domestic News
6. Zhang Wei, Vice President of Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, MOFCOM, said that the Ministry of Finance encourages the building of free trade zone among the “One Belt One Road” countries to facilitate trade and investment and build more buffer zones for Chinese enterprises.

7. Zhu Shumin was named deputy chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission and Zhang Shenfeng was named assistant chairperson of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in a statement in the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the People's Republic of China (MOHRSS).

8. Several banks in Beijing have adjusted the mortgage rate for first-time home buyers. Mortgage lending rates that are 5 percent to 10 percent higher than the benchmark lending rate have become "a mainstream phenomenon" in Beijing. The business management department of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said commercial banks made the adjustments according to changes in market capital levels and their own needs for asset and liabilities management, amid Beijing's strict control measures on the real estate market and overall rising interest rates. The moves conformed to policy requirements and goals and thus were supported by the department, it added.

9. Xiongan New Area will say no to “land finance”, shifting to city balance from land balance to benefit urban residents, make property rights the common wealth of the society, or create a new distribution system of urbanization benefits.

10. It is uncertain whether struggling Chinese conglomerate LeEco founder Jia Yueting could meet his promise considering its frozen assets, and as he failed to unwind his funds as promised, Zhong De Securities said.

11. UBS Securities published a survey suggesting Chinese business leaders overall hold a positive outlook for the next six months, with the majority of firms planning to increase capital expenditure over the next year, suggesting benign business environment will boost banking and consumer sector, including diary, furniture, electric appliances, duty-free, etc.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar rose broadly on Wednesday, hitting a two-month high versus the yen, as the Federal Reserve signaled it may raise interest rates for a third time this year even as inflation has remained below its 2 percent goal. The euro slid 0.8 percent to $1.1894, its lowest in four sessions, while the greenback gained 0.5 percent to 112.17 yen after touching a two-month high at 112.51 yen, Reuters data showed. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.7 percent for its biggest one-day increase since Aug. 4 at 92.426.

2. Home Market
China's yuan rallied against the dollar, regaining the ground lost in the previous session, while the official yuan midpoint hit a two-week low. Yuan rose as the dollar slipped unexpectedly after the bulls squared positions. The Chinese currency is not expected to swing widely in the near term.

Precious Metals
Gold prices fell 1 percent on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled it still expected to raise interest rates by year-end. Spot gold was down at $1,301.00 an ounce from 1,311.18. The most active U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled up $5.80, or 0.44 percent, at $1,316.40 per ounce.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled up 2 percent on Wednesday despite a rise in U.S. crude inventories, with the market heading for its largest third-quarter gain in 13 years after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its partners were considering extending or deepening output cuts. Brent crude futures rose $1.15, or 2.09 percent, to $56.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 93 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $50.41.

2.Base Metals
Aluminium soared to its highest in five years on Wednesday on reports that mammoth Chinese producer Chinalco was cutting output two months early and would soon pare back stocks of available metal. Benchmark aluminium on the LME closed 2.5 percent up at $2,177 a tonne after touching $2,194.50, its highest since September 2012. LME copper finished 0.2 percent down at $6,527 a tonne, ending three days of modest gains. Nickel finished 2.2 percent up at $11,380. Lead closed with a 1.7 percent gain at $2,460 a tonne. Zinc was 0.9 percent up at $3,133 while tin closed 0.1 percent down at $20,625

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. Bonds
Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields jumped to their highest levels in six weeks on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's statement from its policy meeting was interpreted as keeping a December interest rate hike on the table. Benchmark 10-year notes fell 11/32 in price to yield 2.29 percent, the highest since Aug. 8.

2. Chinese bonds
China's cash bonds were little changed in interbank bond market on Wednesday. The auction of 80-billion T-bonds put investors in the secondary market on the sidelines. The final pricing was also relatively high.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 and the Dow ended slightly higher on Wednesday, adding to their string of closing records, after the Federal Reserve signaled it expects another interest rate hike by year-end and would begin in October to cut its balance sheet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 41.79 points, or 0.19 percent to end at 22,412.59, its seventh straight record close. The S&P 500 gained 1.59 points, or 0.06 percent, to 2,508.24, clocking its sixth record closing high in the last seven sessions. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.28 points, or 0.08 percent, to 6,456.04, with Apple Inc as its biggest drag.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong shares rose on Wednesday, with the benchmark index hovering around 28-month highs, as shares of Chinese metal producers continued to rally. The Hang Seng index rose 0.3 percent to 28,127.80 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.4 percent to 11,173.51.

3. China Equities
China's stocks inched up on Wednesday in a tight trading amid lingering solid sentiment and accomodative expectations, despite the 20-day moving average was breached in the previous session. The Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3,366, up 9.16 points or 0.27 percent. The trading volume of Shanghai A shares rose to 225.5 billion yuan from 220.5 billion yuan. The CSI300 rose 0.27 percent to 3,842.44.


(2017-09-21)
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