I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices rose 1 percent to a 3-1/2-month high on Thursday after minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting further dampened expectations for an interest rate hike in March, lowering U.S. bond yields and pressuring the dollar. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled up 1.5 percent at $1,251.40. Gold investors should be paying close attention to upcoming european elections, as political risks would drive the metal well above current level on any signs of split in euro zone. Marine Le Pen, leader of the French National Front party, has said she will put together a referendum for France to exit the European Union if elected. However, more details on promised government spending, infrastructure investment or tax cuts would likely push the dollar and U.S. asset prices higher and gold lower.
On technical front, gold rose and is likely to hit the 200-day moving average of $1,260. In case of a successful breakthrough, the yellow metal would pick up further.

Silver
Silver tracked gold, maintaining its upward movement although at a slower pace than the latter. Technically, the momentum column of the MACD failed to blow up, suggesting divergence between the two metals if silver could not follow gold’s strength. The white metal had advanced over 10 percent since late December last year. A downturn triggered by profit-taking shall be watched.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose on Thursday but gains were pared after U.S. government data showed a seventh straight build in crude stocks, suggesting high inventories could undermine OPEC's move to cut output. Benchmark Brent crude oil rose 74 cents a barrel to settle at $56.58 after touching a high of $57.26. U.S. light crude traded up 86 cents at $54.45 a barrel after touching $54.94 a barrel. Both benchmarks are near the top of relatively narrow $4 ranges that have contained trade so far this year, reflecting a period of low volatility since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters agreed to cut output. On Thursday, sources told Reuters that the joint OPEC/non-OPEC technical committee reported an 86 percent compliance on the oil cuts in January, suggesting effective enforcement of the cut deal. Oil is expected to continue to strengthen in near term. 

Copper
Copper prices tumbled on Thursday as worries about demand in top consumer China resurfaced after the country's housing minister suggested moves were afoot to stabilise the property market, while a firm dollar reinforced negative sentiment. China's deputy housing minister Lu Kehua said preparatory work was being undertaken for a nationwide property tax. If China is going to try and cool the property market, it's not good news for demand.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures extended losses to a six-week low on Thursday on expectations for a big South American harvest and an expansion in U.S. plantings this spring, analysts said. The Chicago Board of Trade March soybean contract was down 11-1/4 cents at $10.11-1/2 per bushel after dipping to $10.10, its lowest since Jan. 12. The contract drifted below the support of the 100-day and 200-day moving average. Traded volumes of soybean, soymeal and soyoil were expected to stood at 360,996 lots, 118,867 lots, and 132,241 lots respectively.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Cheng Yu