关于中国发展战略调整和未来增长前景的分析 （余永定）
金融业服务扩大内需发展战略研究 （ 邱兆祥 李奂哲 安世友）
中国通胀目标的估计与影响分析 （陈汉鹏 卜振兴）
金融膨胀对经济增长的抑制效应及缓释机制检验 （王爱萍 胡海峰 张 昭）
智力资本信息披露对股权资本成本的影响 （傅传锐 黄 娴 王焰辉 李婷婷）
重大灾害冲击、政府救助行为与保险需求 （李 红 王新军）
疫情冲击下组织冗余对股票收益率的影响研究 （金顺姬 张俊瑞 金 玲 苏 洋）
新冠疫情对全球股指的冲击影响研究 （刘晓孟 马晓燕 周爱民）
货币政策、政府干预与城商行流动性创造 （申嫦娥 史海霞 张博雅）
关于中国发展战略调整和未来增长前景的分析
余永定
出口导向发展战略取得了成功，同时出现了一些新情况：一是国际市场容纳能力有限；二是产业体系抵御外部冲击能力下降；三是自主创新动力不足；四是资源跨境跨时错配。要提高自主创新能力，我国须加大研发投资力度，深化教育和科研体系改革。未来中国经济增速将受到来自第三产业比重上升但效率较低、人口老龄化、绿色发展等因素的综合影响，建议采取更为扩张性的、积极的宏观政策，使经济增速保持在6%左右。
An Analysis of China’s Development Strategy Adjustment and Future Growth Prospects
YU Yong-ding
China’s export-oriented development strategy has been successful, while some new situations have emerged. First, the capacity of the international market is limited; Second, the ability of the industrial system to resist external shocks has decreased; Third, the independent innovation power is insufficient; Fourth, there has been mismatch in the cross-border and time-transcending allocation of resources. To improve the ability of independent innovation, China must increase investment in R&D and deepen the reform of educational and scientific research system. In the future, China’s economic growth will be comprehensively affected by the rising proportion of the tertiary industry whose efficiency is relatively low compared, aging population, green development and other factors. It is suggested that China adopt a more expansionary and active macro policy to keep the GDP growth rate at about 6%.
金融业服务扩大内需发展战略研究
邱兆祥 李奂哲 安世友
在新发展格局下，无论是国内大循环还是国内国际双循环，带动经济健康良性循环的主要动力是扩大内需，拓展国内市场。金融作为现代经济运行的核心和社会资源配置的枢纽，具有引导和优化资源配置等多方面功能，在促进实施扩大内需战略中具有极其重要的作用。支持实施扩大内需战略是助推构建新发展格局的着力点，是中国金融业的职责和使命。中国金融业应以问题为导向，通过高效服务扩大内需战略，在促进中国经济体系的良性循环和构建新发展格局中更好地发挥推动作用。
Research on Financial Sector Serving the Development Strategy of Expanding Domestic Demand
QIU Zhao-xiang LI Huan-zhe AN Shi-you
In the new development pattern, the main driving force for a healthy economic cycle is to expand domestic demand and the domestic market. As the core of modern economic operation and the hub of social resource allocation, finance has many functions such as guiding and optimizing resource allocation, and plays an extremely important role in promoting the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Supporting the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand is the focus of building a new development pattern, and is the responsibility and mission of China’s financial industry. China’s financial industry should be problem-oriented, and expand domestic demand through efficient service, so as to play a better role in promoting a virtuous circle of China’s economic system and building a new development pattern.
中国通胀目标的估计与影响分析
陈汉鹏 卜振兴
本文利用变系数不可观测要素模型，以拓展后的卡尔曼滤波估计政府的通胀目标并评估其对于实际通胀的影响。研究发现，本文估计的通胀目标自2012年以来显著高于实际通胀，其有效拉抬通胀预期，成功抵消经济增速放缓对总体通货膨胀的抑制。通胀目标与实际经济行为对通货膨胀的影响在危机后均显著提升，中国不存在菲利普斯曲线扁平化现象，政府通胀目标对于实际通胀起到良好的锚定作用。
Research on Estimation and Impact of China’s Inflation Target
CHEN Han-peng BU Zhen-xing
This paper uses the variable coefficient unobservable component model and the extended Kalman filtering to estimate the government’s inflation target and evaluate its impact on real inflation. It is found that the inflation target estimated in this paper has been significantly higher than the real inflation since 2012, which effectively raises inflation expectations and successfully offsets the inhibition of economic slowdown on overall inflation. The impact of inflation target and real economic behavior on inflation has increased significantly after the financial crisis. There is no flattening of Phillips curve in China, and the government inflation target plays a good anchoring role in real inflation.
金融膨胀对经济增长的抑制效应及缓释机制检验
王爱萍 胡海峰 张 昭
本文从人才竞争的角度切入，构建数理模型，分析金融部门和实体经济部门之间的竞合关系及其对经济增长的影响，结合中国2002-2018年省际层面的面板数据进行实证检验，发现金融相对于实体经济的过度膨胀会抑制经济增长。机制检验结果表明，全社会人力资本水平的上升和直接融资途径的完善，分别会通过降低金融部门与实体经济部门之间的人才竞争程度、增加实体经济部门的筹资渠道而改善上述负面效应。
The Inhibition Effect of Financial Expansion on Economic Growth and the
Test of the Alleviation Mechanism
WANG Ai-ping HU Hai-feng ZHANG Zhao
From the perspective of talent competition, this paper constructs a mathematical model to analyze the competition and cooperation relationship between financial and real economy sectors and its impact on economic growth. Based on China’s inter-provincial panel data during 2002-2018, the empirical test shows that the excessive expansion of finance relative to the real economy will inhibit economic growth; the mechanism test results show that the increase in the level of human capital in the whole society and the improvement in direct financing channels will diminish the above negative effects by reducing the talent competition between financial and the real economy sectors and increasing the financing channels of the real economy sector.
智力资本信息披露对股权资本成本的影响
傅传锐 黄 娴 王焰辉 李婷婷
本文利用智力资本信息披露大样本数据，研究智力资本信息披露对股权资本成本的影响机制。研究表明：（1）总体智力资本、人力资本信息披露与股权成本负相关。（2）相对于内控质量较低的企业，内控质量高的企业披露智力资本与人力资本信息，能够更有效地降低股权成本。（3）与竞争缓和环境中的企业相比，激烈竞争环境中的企业的智力资本、人力资本信息披露对股权成本的降低作用更强。此外，总体智力资本、人力资本信息披露能够通过缓解信息不对称、减少买卖价差的中介路径发挥降低股权成本的作用。
Impact of Intellectual Capital Information Disclosure on Cost of Equity Capital
FU Chuan-rui HUANG Xian WANG Yan-hui LI Ting-ting
Using the large sample data of intellectual capital information disclosure, this paper studies the impact mechanism of intellectual capital information disclosure on the cost of equity capital. The research shows that, (1) the information disclosure of overall intellectual capital and human capital is negatively correlated with the cost of equity; (2) compared with enterprises with low internal control quality, enterprises with high internal control quality can reduce the cost of equity more effectively by disclosing intellectual capital and human capital information; (3) compared with enterprises in relaxed competition environment, the information disclosure of intellectual capital and human capital by enterprises in fierce competition environment plays a stronger role in reducing the cost of equity. In addition, the information disclosure of overall intellectual capital and human capital can reduce the cost of equity through the intermediary path of alleviating information asymmetry and reducing bid-ask spread.
重大灾害冲击、政府救助行为与保险需求
李 红 王新军
本文选取非典时期全国208个城市416组数据，对非典疫情与商业健康保险需求的关系进行实证研究。研究发现：（1）针对保险需求不足的问题，利用保费补贴来补救的方法是可行的。（2）证实了人们在灾前灾后对风险发生的主观概率呈先低估后高估的特点，同时证明了最优承保水平与人们对灾害风险可能发生的主观概率之间存在正相关关系。（3）重大灾害事件发生之前，公众对政府灾后救助的预期会对灾前保险购买需求产生挤出效应，但需要满足两个重要前提：保险公司公平定价以及个人绝对风险厌恶递减。
Impact of Major Disaster, Government Bailout and Insurance Demand
LI Hong WANG Xin-jun
This paper selects 416 sets of data of 208 cities across the country in the period of SARS to conduct an empirical research on the relationship between the impact of major disasters and the demand for commercial health insurance. The study indicates that, (1) It is feasible to use premium subsidies to deal with the problem of insufficient insurance demand; (2) the public’s subjective probability of risk occurrence before and after the disaster shows a characteristic of underestimation at first and then overestimation, and there is a positive correlation between optimal underwriting level and public’s subjective probability of disaster risk; (3) before a major disaster event, the public’s expectation for government post-disaster bailout has a crowding-out effect on the purchase demand of pre-disaster insurance, but there are two important premises including the fair pricing by insurance companies and the decrease in personal absolute risk aversion.
疫情冲击下组织冗余对股票收益率的影响研究
金顺姬 张俊瑞 金 玲 苏 洋
本文以2019年12月至2020年3月中国A股上市企业为样本，分析组织冗余对疫情冲击下股票收益率的影响。研究发现，疫情发生后上市公司的股票收益率普遍下降，而组织冗余作为调节变量，缓解了疫情对股票收益率的冲击；这一效应在非国有企业中尤为明显。并且，当组织冗余水平达到当年同行业的49%时，这一缓冲作用才得以显现。由此可见，企业内部适当的冗余资源对有效防范、应对突发性的灾难事件具有重要意义。
Research on the Influence of Organizational Redundancy on Stock Return against the
Background of the Impact of the Covid-19
JIN Shun-ji ZHANG Jun-rui JIN Ling SU Yang
This study takes China’s A-share listed companies during December 2019-March 2020 as samples to analyze the influence of organizational redundancy on stock return against the background of the impact of the Covid-19. The study shows that, after the outbreak of the Covid-19, the stock returns of listed companies generally declined, and organizational redundancy as a moderating variable alleviated the impact of the Covid-19 on stock return; this effect is particularly significant in non-state-owned enterprises; the effect appears only when the enterprise’s level of organizational redundancy reaches 49% of that in the same industry of the same year. Therefore, the appropriate redundant resources within enterprise are of great significance for effectively preventing and responding to unexpected disasters.
新冠疫情对全球股指的冲击影响研究
刘晓孟 马晓燕 周爱民
本文研究全球11个主要股指在新冠疫情暴发初期的收益率与波动率及其长期记忆性变化情况。通过干预分析，研究发现多数股指收益率预期水平均受到新冠疫情的负向冲击，半数股指波动率预期水平受到疫情的正向冲击；通过长期记忆性突变检验，发现半数股指，尤其是美股的波动率在疫情暴发后出现显著的长期记忆性上升。各股指中，上证综指是唯一未出现波动明显加剧的股指，这从侧面体现出资本市场对中国本次抗疫工作的高度评价以及对中国疫情后经济快速复苏的信心。
Impact of COVID-19 on Global Stock Index
LIU Xiao-meng MA Xiao-yan ZHOU Ai-min
This paper examines the changes in the yield and volatility of the 11 major stock indexes at the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19 and changes in their long-term memory. Through intervention analysis, it is found that most of the expected levels of stock index yields are negatively impacted by COVID-19, and half the expected levels of stock index volatility are positively impacted by COVID-19. Through the long-term memory mutation test, it is found that the volatility of half the stock indexes, especially US stocks, has increased significantly after the outbreak of COVID-19. Among the stock indexes, the Shanghai composite index is the only one without obvious increase in volatility, which reflects the high evaluation of China’s anti epidemic work by the capital market and the confidence in China’s rapid economic recovery after the epidemic.
货币政策、政府干预与城商行流动性创造
申嫦娥 史海霞 张博雅
本文基于2006-2017年中国68家城商行的非平衡面板数据，采用系统GMM方法，研究货币政策对城商行流动性创造的影响，以及地方政府干预对货币政策与城商行流动性创造关系的调节作用。研究发现，不同货币政策工具对流动性创造影响不同：存、贷款基准利率对城商行整体、表内及表外流动性创造的影响均显著为正，法定存款准备金率对城商行整体及表内流动性创造的影响显著为负，对表外流动性创造的影响为正但系数很小；地方政府干预抑制货币政策与城商行流动性创造之间的关系。
Monetary Policy, Government Intervention and Liquidity Creation of Urban Commercial Banks
SHEN Chang-e SHI Hai-xia ZHAGN Bo-ya
Based on the unbalanced panel data of 68 urban commercial banks in China during 2006-2017, this paper uses the systematic GMM method to study the impact of monetary policy on the liquidity creation of urban commercial banks and the regulatory effect of local government intervention on the relationship between monetary policy and the liquidity creation of urban commercial banks. It is found that each monetary policy instrument has different effect on liquidity creation: the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans have a significant positive impact on the overall liquidity creation, balance sheet liquidity creation and off-balance sheet liquidity creation of urban commercial banks; the statutory deposit reserve ratio has a significant negative impact on both overall and balance sheet liquidity creation of urban commercial banks, and has a positive impact on off-balance sheet liquidity creation, but with a very small coefficient; local government intervention inhibits the relationship between monetary policy and liquidity creation of urban commercial banks.