形势分析
金融危机背景下的美国经济周期研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (5)
Business Cycle of U.S. Under the Background of Global Financial Crisis
The Study Group, Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC (5)
理论研究
风险竞争、银行效率与监管有效性——“金砖四国”的经验研究与政策建议
邹朋飞 廖进球 (12)
Competition, the Efficiency of the Banking and the Validity of Regulation——Experience of BRICs and Policy Suggestions
ZOU Peng-fei LIAO Jin-qiu (12)
关于商业银行规模的再思考
蔡宁伟 (17)
Rethinking About Commercial Banks' Scale
CAI Ning-wei (17)
银行中年员工的职场心理养生探讨
何茂荣 (24)
An Exploration on Mental Health of Middle-aged Employees in Banks
HE Mao-rong (24)
应用研究
基于分销理论的银行核心竞争力研究
中国工商银行上海市分行课题组 (30)
Study on Core Competence of Commercial Banks Based on Distribution Theory
The Study Group of Shanghai Branch of ICBC (30)
中国商业银行海外并购经济后果研究——以招商银行并购永隆银行为例
胡 挺 刘娥平 (37)
The Study on Economic Consequence of Overseas Mergers and Acquisitions of Chinese Commercial Banks——Based on the Case of China Merchants Bank in the Acquisition of Wing Lung Bank
HU Ting LIU E-ping (37)
业务探讨
商业银行集团授信客户行业分散风险研究
张晓宏 (43)
Multi-industry Decentralization Risk Faced by Group Customers of Commercial Banks
ZHANG Xiao-hong (43)
假按揭贷款非现场排查思路与方法研究
林跃武 许大庆 黄慧君 王 浩 陆晓芸 (48)
Research on Ideas and Approaches of Off-site Risk Scanning of Fake Mortgage Loan
LIN Yue-wu XU Da-qing HUANG Hui-jun WANG Hao LU Xiao-yun (48)
能源类商品贸易融资方案设计、风险防范及发展策略——以工商银行新加坡分行为例
徐 力 甄福来 (53)
The Design, Risk Prevention and Developing Strategies of Commodity Trade Financing
Business in the Energy Sector—With the Case of ICBC Singapore Branch
XU Li ZHEN Fu-lai (53)
商业银行保证金账户的法律性质与风险防范措施
王娇莺 (59)
The Legal Nature and Risk Control Measures of Commercial Banks' Margin Accounts
WANG Jiao-ying (59)
商业银行对信用证欺诈风险的防范
原擒龙 夏 霖 (65)
Analysis on Commercial Bank's Precaution Against Fraudulence Risk
YUAN Qin-long XIA Lin (65)
调研报告
经济周期性波动下商业银行支持中小企业发展研究
中国工商银行江苏省分行课题组 (70)
Research on Commercial Banks' Support for the Development of SMEs Under the Influence of Business Cycle
The Study Group of Jiangsu Branch, ICBC (70)
本刊2009年总目录 (76)
金融危机背景下的美国经济周期研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］ 本文以经济周期为切入点，对美国实体经济近百余年的周期演化历史进行了实证分析和比较分析。结果表明：本次全球金融危机导致美国经济短、中、长三条周期弧线出现“相切”现象，并改变了周期“稳定性增强”的长期演化特征；预计NBER将于2010年下半年判定2009年6～10月中的一个月为本次经济收缩阶段的波谷；这个拐点之后，美国经济将同时进入新的短、中、长周期的扩张阶段。由于金融危机导致结构要素深度调整，复苏将是一个缓慢、曲折和渐进的过程，伴随着短周期向中、长周期的过渡，复苏将呈现出“先抑后扬”的整体特征。
［关键词］ 金融危机；美国经济；经济周期；NBER；马尔科夫区制转换模型
［Abstract］ This paper empirically studies the cyclical evolution of U.S. real economy in recent century from the perspective of business cycle. The result shows that the global financial crisis leads to a tangent phenomenon of short-, medium- and long-term business cycle curve of the U.S. economy, and has changed the long-term characteristics of the business cycle, named by gradually enhanced stability. The paper expects that NBER will determine one month between June to October of 2009 as the trough of this cycle in the second half of 2010. After this turnning point, the U.S. economy will enter a new expansion phase of the short-, medium- and long-term business cycle. As the financial crisis leads to the deep adjustment of structural elements, the recovery will be a slow, tortuous and gradual process. Accompanied by the transition from the short-term cycle to the medium- and long-term cycle, the recovery vigor will go depressed first and surge afterwards.
［Key words］ financial crisis；American economy；business cycle；NBER; Markov Switching Model
风险竞争、银行效率与监管有效性——“金砖四国”的经验研究与政策建议
邹朋飞 廖进球
［摘 要］ 中国银行业改革的总体思路是走市场化道路，以竞争提高效率。本文利用1999~2007年的面板数据测度了“金砖四国”银行业市场的竞争程度和效率状况，检验了竞争、效率与监管有效性之间的关系。研究表明：中国和俄罗斯银行业市场的竞争程度最高，巴西银行业市场竞争程度最低，很多年份都表现为完全垄断或接近完全垄断；印度银行业市场的效率最高，而巴西和俄罗斯银行业市场的效率较低；竞争程度的高低与银行业市场效率的高低之间并不存在必然的因果关系；竞争能否提高银行业市场的效率，关键在于竞争是否公平，监管是否有效。
［关键词］ 竞争；银行效率；监管有效性；金砖四国
［Abstract］ The general idea of the reform on Chinese banking is to insist market-oriented development and improve the financial efficiency through competition. The paper uses the panel data from 1999 to 2007 to measure the competition degree and efficiency status of the banking in BRICs and test the relationship among competition, efficiency and the validity of regulation. The results show that Chinese and Russian banking have the highest competition degree and that in Brazil banking is the lowest. Brazil banking has showed features of complete monopoly in many years. The efficiency of Indian banking is the highest, and that of Brazil and Russian banking is the lowest. There is no necessary causality between competition degree and the market efficiency of the banking. Whether competition can improve the efficiency of the banking mainly relies on the fairness of competition and the validity of regulation.
［Key words］ competition; the efficiency of the banking; the validity of regulation; BRICs
关于商业银行规模的再思考
蔡宁伟
［摘 要］ 在众多中资商业银行规模化的同时，相伴而生的是一系列显性或隐性的问题，特别是由于自身定位、企业边界等问题所引发的规模经济或不经济，值得银行业关注和反思。在组织生态领域，每家商业银行通过寻找合适的生态位，开展差异化竞争从而拥有自己的比较优势，如提供相对独特的产品和服务等，最终实现规模经济。因此，在寻找合适的生态位、发掘自身比较优势和实现规模经济三者之间存在一种循环逻辑关系。中国的商业银行，特别是中小商业银行在辨识自己的生态位，寻求良性发展过程中应高度关注三方面问题：一是隐性准入壁垒，二是合理的经济边界，三是效率与质量并重。
［关键词］ 商业银行；生态位；比较优势；规模经济
［Abstract］ Along with increasingly enlarged scale of many Chinese commercial banks, a series of dominant and recessive problems come up. Especially economies or diseconomies of scale, resulting from elements such as positioning and enterprise boundaries, should attract the concern and introspection of the banking. In the field of organizational ecology, each commercial bank can own its comparative advantage, such as providing unique products, by searching a suitable niche and fulfilling differentiated competition, and finally achieve economies of scale. Therefore, there is a logical cycle among suitable niche, comparative advantage and economies of scale. In the process of identifying their niches and pursuing sound development, Chinese commercial banks, especially medium and small ones, should pay more attention to hidden entry barriers, sound economy boundaries and the balance between efficiency and quality.
［Key words］ commercial bank; niche; comparative advantage; economies of scale
银行中年员工的职场心理养生探讨
何茂荣
［摘 要］ 中年员工作为员工队伍中的重要力量和家庭的重要支柱，中年阶段往往是其人生和职业生活的拐点。无论从他们在业务发展和改革中始终承担着的重要职能，从他们在推动银行发展中体现出的自身价值和贡献的角度考量，还是从企业的可持续发展、建设充分体现人文关怀的企业文化出发，了解中年员工的生理心理特点，理解他们的幸福和困惑，帮助他们解决职业生涯中面临的心理和现实挑战，创造宽松和谐的文化环境，不仅是引导和激励包括中年员工在内的全体员工在为企业创造效益的过程中，享受自我成长的幸福和快乐的基础，也是企业经营管理和文化建设的题中应有之义。
［关键词］ 中年员工；生理特点；心理特点；压力管理；心理养生
［Abstract］ As the core of staff and the pillar of family, middle-aged employees often face the turning point of their life and professional career. They shoulder important responsibilities in business expansion and play an important role in the development of banks. With consideration of the sustainable development of banks and the enterprise culture that emphasizes humanism, it is valuable to acquire their physiological and psychological characteristics, understand their happiness and confusion and help them solve problems in psychology and reality. Paying attention to middle-aged employees’ mental health and creating a relaxed and harmony enterprise environment not only can instruct and inspire all staff, including middle-aged employees, to enjoy the happiness of self-development in the process of creating value for enterprise, but also are integral parts in enterprise operation and culture construction.
［Key words］ middle-aged employees; physiological characteristics; psychological characteristics; stress management; mental health
基于分销理论的银行核心竞争力研究
中国工商银行上海市分行课题组
［摘 要］ 核心竞争力在很大程度上决定了商业银行未来的发展前景。本文认为，在当前银行业竞争日益激烈的环境中，我国大型商业银行需要发挥其传统优势，以强大的分销能力为突破口实现其核心竞争力的培育和提升。充分利用其业务覆盖面广和品牌认知度高的特点，在保持服务效率的同时更好地识别和感知客户需求，并以此推动产品和服务的开发；通过实施“经济区域级战略业务单元”等组织结构变革以实现适应市场变化与兼顾我国国情的平衡；并培育以“全员营销、积极营销”为特征的企业文化，最终实现在不断变化的市场环境中培育和加强核心竞争力，保持并提升竞争优势的目标。
［关键词］ 商业银行；核心竞争力；价值链；分销理论；分销能力
［Abstract］ Core competence determines the prospects of commercial banks to a large extent. In the current market environment characterized by increasingly fierce competition, Chinese large commercial banks should play their traditional advantages and make full use of their powerful distribution capability to cultivate and enhance the core competence. Comprehensive product line and excellent brand recognition can contribute to ensuring service efficiency, better identifying customers’ demand, as well as furthering product and service innovation. By reforming organization structure, such as establishing regional strategic business units, commercial banks can adapt to market change and follow China’s national conditions. Furthermore, commercial banks should cultivate a marketing-oriented enterprise culture to strengthen their core competence in the continuously changing market and further enhance their competitive advantages.
［Key words］ commercial bank; core competence; value chain; distribution theory; distribution capability
中国商业银行海外并购经济后果研究——以招商银行并购永隆银行为例
胡 挺 刘娥平
［摘 要］ 目前国内商业银行趋向于选择通过海外并购来增强自身的综合化与国际化经营能力。本文以招商银行并购永隆银行为例，从资本市场和财务指标两个角度检验并购的经济后果。研究发现，从招商银行发布并购公告的市场反应来看，其累积超额收益率跑输市场，原因是投资者认为收购价过高；从财务指标变动趋势发现，招商银行盈利能力稳健，竞争力逐年增强，风险水平下降，长期来看将产生协同效应。最后，作者总结三点启示：采取由近及远的并购战略；适时稳健地开展并购在内的资本运作；政府要在市场规则下维护公众利益、规范监督行为。
［关键词］ 商业银行；海外并购；招商银行；永隆银行
［Abstract］ Currently, domestic commercial banks generally incline to strengthen their integrated and international operation by overseas M&A. This article analyzes the economic consequence of M&A from the angles of capital market and financial indicators, with the case of China Merchants Bank (CMB) in the acquisition of Wing Lund bank. On the one hand, since the publication of M&A announcement, the accumulative abnormal return of CMB stocks has underperformed the market due to the exorbitantly high acquisition price in the eyes of investors. On the other hand, given CMB’s stable profitablility, growing competitiveness and constantly decreasing risks, the M&A will achieve synergy in the long run. Finally, the paper summarizes three inspirations as follows: carrying out a step-by-step M&A strategy, timely and steadily developing capital operation, and giving full play to the regulation and supervision function of the government to protect the public interest under market rules.
［Key words］ commercial bank; overseas M &A; China Merchants Bank; Wing Lung Bank
商业银行集团授信客户行业分散风险研究
张晓宏
［摘 要］ 集团授信客户对一个国家的国民经济和银行经营具有双重重要意义，它们面临的行业分散风险已经成为其出现经营危机的主要诱因。本文以《国民经济行业分类与代码（GB/T 4754－2002）2002》为基础，建立了包括集团行业集中度、行业分散相对风险度和综合行业分散风险度在内的集团授信客户行业风险指标体系，并据此构建集团授信客户定性评级分类矩阵，对集团授信客户的行业分散风险进行全方位、多维度的有效识别、计量、监测和控制。银行可以充分利用灵活的贷款定价策略和拨备政策控制和缓释集团授信客户的行业分散风险，对不同评级的客户采取不同的经营策略。
［关键词］ 商业银行；集团授信客户；《国民经济行业分类与代码》；行业分散风险
［Abstract］ Group customers of commercial banks are playing a more and more important role in macro-economy and the operation of commercial banks. Group customers gradually show a trend of multi-industrious operation, which has become a main cause that triggers operational crisis of group customers. With reference of Classification and Code Standard of National Economy Industry (GB/T 4754－2002）2002, the paper establishes a indicator system to measure multi-industry decentralization risk faced by group customers, which includes industry concentration, relative multi-industry decentralization risk and comprehensive multi-industry decentralization risk. According to the system, the paper constructs a qualitative rating matrix, which can comprehensively identify, assess, monitor and control group customers’ multi-industry decentralization risk. Commercial banks can flexibly use different pricing policies on loans and provision policies to control and mitigate group customers’ multi-industry decentralization risk and carry out different operating strategies towards customers with different ratings.
［Key words］ commercial bank; group customer; Classification and Code Standard of National Economy Industry; multi-industry decentralization risk
假按揭贷款非现场排查思路与方法研究
林跃武 许大庆 黄慧君 王 浩 陆晓芸
［摘 要］ 假按揭贷款对银行造成的经营风险、对金融秩序的破坏以及对房地产和汽车市场健康发展的影响不可忽视。本文分析了假按揭贷款的表现形式及其危害性，并介绍了国内针对假按揭贷款的相关监管行为和法律定性，同时从银行内部审计角度出发，对假按揭贷款的非现场排查思路与方法进行了探讨。本文主张，在明确审计目标对象的基础上，确定相应的审计排查思路和基本方法，即通过机器自动筛选和经验判断筛选、排查模型优化和排查参数调整、贷款业务系统数据和账户往来交易系统数据、静态数据信息分析和动态数据信息分析等四个结合来实施有效排查。
［关键词］ 商业银行；假按揭贷款；非现场排查；内部审计；风险防范
［Abstract］ Fake mortgage loan (FML) brings huge business risks to banks and causes great damages to the financial order and negative impacts on development of the market of real estates and cars. This essay analyzes the forms and harms of FML, introduces domestic regulatory measures and legal definitions centering on FML, and discusses the ideas and approaches of off-site risk scanning of FML. The essay argues that on the basis of defining auditing targets of FML, auditors should combine suitable solutions to carry out effective scanning. In detail, the paper expounds four main solution combinations, which are combination of Computer-Auto-Scanning and Subjective-Experience-Scanning, combination of Model Improvement and Index Adjustment, combination of Credit System Data and Transaction System Data and combination of Static and Dynamic Data and Information.
［Key words］ commercial bank; fake mortgage loan(FML); off-site risk scanning; internal auditing; risk precaution
能源类商品贸易融资方案设计、风险防范及发展策略——以工商银行新加坡分行为例
徐 力 甄福来
［摘 要］ 新加坡已经发展成为全球重要的石油交易中心之一。工商银行新加坡分行通过长期的业务实践，逐步建立起服务于能源类大宗商品贸易融资的产品体系。本文以背对背信用证融资模式和大型石油公司融资方案为例，详细阐述了石油类贸易融资方案的具体设计，并系统分析了融资银行在开展此类业务中面临的定价、存货、信用证价格浮动条款、保证书等方面的风险，以及应采取的规避风险的措施。为进一步加快能源类大宗商品贸易融资的发展，新加坡分行应推动境内外分行的联动，积极拓展商品融资业务，不断完善风险管理并加快业务创新。
［关键词］ 新加坡；工商银行；能源类大宗商品贸易融资；石油；供应链；结构性融资产品
［Abstract］ Singapore has become one of the most important global oil trading hubs in recent years. Through long-term practice on commodity trade financing business, ICBC Singapore Branch has gradually established an integral product system covering commodity trade financing in the energy sector. This article elaborates how to design the commodity trade financing structures in energy sector, by illustrating the Back-to-Back LC financing model and specific financing structure for large-sized oil companies. Besides, the risks that financing banks face, such as pricing risk, inventory risk, LC price escalation clause risk and Letter of Indemnity etc, as well as the applied mitigations of those risks are systematically analyzed in the article. To further speed up the development of energy commodity trade financing, ICBC Singapore Branch should promote linkage between ICBC branches home and abroad, be more active in expanding the commodity trade financing business, constantly improve the risk management and accelerate business innovation.
［Key words］ Singapore; ICBC; commodity trade financing business in the energy sector; oil; supply chain; structured financing product
商业银行保证金账户的法律性质与风险防范措施
王娇莺
［摘 要］ 根据商业银行的角色，商业银行的各类保证金账户可以细分为两种类型：银行作为债权人的保证金账户与银行作为第三方存管人的保证金账户。第一种类型的保证金账户从本质上讲属于金钱质押，特定化与移交债权人占有是设立有效金钱质押的基本要件。实践中，保证金账户尚存在成文规定层面的滞后性、司法层面的随意性与操作层面的模糊性等问题，由此引发的法律风险不容忽视。商业银行应审慎评估保证金账户面临的各种风险，采取有效措施做好保证金账户的规范管理与风险防范工作。相关部门也应尽快统一各地法院对保证金账户法律性质的不一致认识，维护银行债权安全。
［关键词］ 商业银行；保证金账户；金钱质押；账户质押
［Abstract］ Margin accounts in commercial banks can be categorized into two types: one with commercial banks acting as creditor and the other with commercial banks acting as custodian. In essence, the first type is a pledge over cash, with the characteristics of appropriation and transfer of the possession to creditors. In practice, the legal risks of margin accounts, which are caused by the delay in legislation, the randomness of judicial disposal and the ambiguity in terms of operation, cannot be ignored. Commercial banks must prudentially assess the risks of margin accounts and take efficient measures to streamline the management of margin accounts and prevent the risks. Relevant authorities should also unify different understandings of local courts on the legal nature of margin accounts to safeguard commercial banks' legal rights.
［Key words］ commercial bank; margin account; pledge over cash; pledge over account
商业银行对信用证欺诈风险的防范
原擒龙 夏 霖
［摘 要］ 国际贸易和国际结算业务中经常发生欺诈风险。本文从对一则信用证开证行对于客户的开证申请进行前期审查，发现欺诈疑点的案例进行分析着手，探讨了商业银行如何防范信用证欺诈风险。商业银行自身防范欺诈风险应注意进行专业化审查，注意了解客户，加强与代理行的选择和信息交流，健全银行内部管控与培训制度，如万一欺诈业务发生应通过司法途径解决。商业银行还应协助客户防范欺诈风险，应协助客户慎重选择交易伙伴，妥善签订贸易合同，及时跟踪合同及信用证执行进程，并协助客户进行专业培训。
［关键词］ 信用证；商业银行；国际结算；国际贸易；欺诈风险
［Abstract］ Fraudulence risk often happens in international trade and settlement business. Beginning with analyzing a fraudulence case in which a L/C issuing bank discovered fraudulence risk through pre-check of L/C application, the paper explores how to prevent the fraudulence risk from the perspective of commercial banks. Commercial banks should carry out professional inspection, know their customers, closely communicate with correspondent banks, and improve the internal control and training system. In the event of fraudulence occurrence, banks should seek legal procedures. Moreover, commercial banks should assist their customers to guard against the fraudulence risk by helping customers prudentially select trade partners and properly sign trade contracts, timely monitoring the execution process of contracts and L/Cs, and instructing customers to train their employees.
［Key words］ letter of credit; commercial bank; international settlement; international trade; fraudulence risk
经济周期性波动下商业银行支持中小企业发展研究
中国工商银行江苏省分行课题组
［摘 要］ 深入剖析经济周期性波动对江苏中小企业经营发展的影响，研究并制定促进江苏中小企业健康平稳发展的金融支持举措，是商业银行的必然选择。本文借助金融经济周期理论，深入剖析了经济周期波动下的江苏中小企业金融市场特点，详尽分析了商业银行支持中小企业的不适应因素，通过借鉴国内外商业银行的经验做法，从明确发展战略、重塑运营模式、提升金融服务、健全风险控制机制和培育金融支持体系五个方面，提出了支持中小企业发展的具体对策，为解决中小企业融资难题提供了金融视角的思路和范式。
［关键词］ 经济周期；中小企业；江苏；商业银行
［Abstract］ Facing the current market environment, commercial banks have necessity to deeply scrutinize the influence of business cycle on the development of SMEs in Jiangsu province and formulate suitable financially supportive measures to further the healthy and stable development of SMEs. By using theories on business and financial cycle, the paper analyzes the characteristics of financial market faced by Jiangsu SMEs under the influence of business cycle, and expounds the factors that result in the fact that commercial banks fail to effectively support the development of SMEs. By drawing experience of foreign commercial banks, the paper proposes detailed counter-measures from five aspects, including identifying development strategies, rebuilding operational pattern, improve financial service, amplifying risk control mechanism and cultivating financial support system. Those measures can provide a model from the angle of finance to solve the financing difficulty faced by SMEs.
［Key words］ business cycle; SMEs; Jiangsu province; commercial bank