《金融论坛》2009年第2期中英文目录及摘要

　　理论研究
　　银行业市场约束机制的框架阐释
　　孙龙建 (14)
　　An Illustration on Market Discipline Mechanism of the Banking
　　SUN Long-jian (14)

　　我国商业银行公司治理的特殊性分析
　　刘 懿　罗 希 (20)
　　The Particularity of Corporate Governance of Chinese Commercial Banks
　　LIU Yi　LUO Xi (20)

　　信用衍生产品创新及监管路径选择
　　赖劲宇 (27)
　　The Innovation of Credit Derivatives and the Supervision Approaches
　　LAI Jin-yu (27)

　　应用研究
　　组合管理视角下银行信贷的退出——基于Creditrisk+模型的应用分析
　　郑 冲 (34)
　　Research on Credit Retreat of Commercial Bank from the Perspective of Portfolio Management——Based on the Analysis of the Application of Creditrisk+ Model
　　ZHENG Chong (34)

　　商业银行信息科技风险的量化计量研究
　　何茂春 (42)
　　A Quantitative Research on Information Technology Risk of Commercial Bank
　　HE Mao-chun (42)

　　解读信贷推动下的美国房地产泡沫与金融危机——基于2000～2008年月度数据的理论分析与实证检验
　　李 成　王建军 (49)
　　An Interpretation on US Real Estate Bubble and Financial Crisis under Credit Expansion——The Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Verification Based on the Monthly Data from 2000 to 2008
　　LI Cheng　WANG Jian-jun (49)

　　基于价值链的商业银行汽车金融业务战略设计
　　牛大勇　李柏洲 (55)
　　The Design on Strategy of Commercial Banks in Auto Financing Service Based on the Theory of the Value Chain
　　NIU Da-yong　LI Bai-zhou (55)

　　业务探讨
　　商业银行预算管理技术支持体系研究
　　陶能虹 (62)
　　The Technical Back-up System of Budget Management in Commercial Banks
　　TAO Neng-hong (62)

　　票据理财产品的银信合作模式、市场概况与政策思考
　　汪办兴 (69)
　　The Cooperation Pattern Between Commercial Bank and Trust Company, Market Survey and Policies of Wealth Management Products Backed by Bill Assets
　　WANG Ban-xing (69)

　　中国大型商业银行境外机构的营销策略研究——以中国工商银行（伦敦）有限公司为例
　　方 斐　肖 文 (74)
　　Marketing Strategies of the Overseas Subsidiaries of Chinese Large-sized Commercial Banks——With a Case of ICBC (London) Ltd.
　　FANG Fei　XIAO Wen (74)

　　全球金融危机深化 中国经济增长“保八”——2008～2009年宏观经济金融走势分析与展望
　　中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组

　　［摘 要］　2009年，发达经济体陷入全面衰退已成定局，新兴市场经济增速也将显著放缓。受外需继续大幅收缩的影响，中国出口形势非常严峻，实际投资增速及工业增长形势也不容乐观。同时，2009年尤其是上半年中国的通缩既表现在信贷需求走低等金融层面，也表现在社会供求失衡导致产能过剩的实体经济层面。2009年宏观调控将立足于扩大内需，防止经济过快过大下滑，“保八”成为第一要务。商业银行应在加强信贷支持的同时加强信贷风险管理，严防贷款质量大幅下滑，同时注重防范流动性风险，提高资金运营效益。
　　［关键词］　金融危机；全球经济衰退；宏观调控；经济刺激计划

　　［Abstract］ Developed economies will fall into comprehensive recession and the economic growth of emerging market will markedly slow down in 2009. Affected by the sharp decrease of foreign demand, China faces severe export situation, and the growth of real investment and industrial output is far from optimistic. In 2009, especially the first half of the year, China's deflation reflects in both the financial level, such as the decreasing credit demand, and the real economy, represented by the over-capacity of industrial output resulting from imbalance between social demand and supply. The macro-control in 2009 will take expanding domestic demand as the basis and prevent the economy from declining too fast and sharply, so ensuring the 8% GDP growth comes into the first priority. Commercial banks must reinforce credit risk management during the course of augmenting credit support to escape the sharp decline of loan quality. Moreover, commercial banks must pay more attention to the liquidity risk and improve the operational earnings of funds.
　　［Key words］ financial crisis; global economic recession; macro-control; economic stimulus package

　　银行业市场约束机制的框架阐释
　　孙龙建

　　［摘 要］　新巴塞尔协议将市场约束列为银行监管的第三支柱，市场参与者控制银行风险的作用日趋重要。研究从总体层面阐释约束机制运作方式的目的是明晰加强银行业内生稳定性的途径。在委托-代理框架下提出约束主体及其激励结构，揭示市场在改进风险控制、资源配置、政府监管方面的潜在优势。将市场约束区分为监督和影响两阶段，理清约束程序的关键环节和路径，全面展示市场约束的形成传导、程序。市场约束准确、及时、有效的发挥作用，需要具备信息、参与者、金融工具等方面的条件。中国银行业的市场约束需要从市场参与者、金融市场和银行公司治理等进行全面改革。
　　［关键词］　银行业稳定；市场约束；监管；委托－代理

　　［Abstract］ Market discipline is listed as the third pillar of the banking supervision in Basel II, and market participants play increasingly important role in controlling bank's risks. The research that analyzes the discipline mechanism from macro-level, aims to explore the approaches to improve the inherent stability of the banking. On the basis of principal-agent theory, this paper proposes the restraining subject and its incentive structure, and reveals the market's potential advantages in risk control, resource allocation and government supervision. In addition, the paper divides the market discipline into two phases: monitoring and influence, and outlines the key steps of the discipline procedure, which fully display the transmission of the market discipline. To accurately, promptly, and effectively play the market's function, some conditions are required first, such as information, participants, financial instruments, etc. The market discipline of Chinese banking must begin with the overall reform of market participants, financial market and bank's corporate governance.
　　［Key words］ the stability of the banking; market discipline; supervision; principal-agent

　　我国商业银行公司治理的特殊性分析
　　刘 懿　罗 希

　　［摘 要］　本文从实证角度提出我国商业银行与一般性公司在公司治理方面存在着许多差别。从治理目标来说，商业银行公司治理不仅要以股东利益最大化为出发点，还要考虑所有投资人的利益；从内部治理机制看，我国商业银行的股权治理单一，独立董事流于形式；从外部治理看，债权产品匮乏，金融市场欠发达。商业银行可从引入战略投资者；重视商业银行独立董事的作用；大力发展金融债券市场，积极推进利率市场化的进程；加快商业银行的产品创新，丰富商业银行的债权人结构，同时加强与企业除资金借贷以外的多种服务联系等方面入手建立起一套符合商业银行特征的公司治理机制。
　　［关键词］　商业银行；公司治理；外部约束；债券市场；产品创新

　　［Abstract］ From the angle of empirical study, there are many distinctions in the corporate governance between Chinese commercial banks and other ordinary enterprises. First, the target of governance is different. While maximizing the shareholder's interest, commercial bank has to pay attention to all investors' interests. Second, from the perspective of the internal governance mechanism, Chinese commercial bank's ownership structure is monotonous, and the board of directors fails to play the due role. Third, given the deficient debt financing products and the underdeveloped financial market, the external governance environment is also far from being satisfactory. Therefore, Chinese commercial banks should take following measures to build a corporate governance mechanism to match their characteristics: (1) introducing the strategic investors; (2) emphasizing the function of independent directors; (3) vigorously developing the bond market, and pushing the market-oriented reform of interest rate; (4) accelerating the product innovation; (5) diversifying commercial bank's creditor structure; (5)strengthening various service contacts with enterprises other than loan business.
　　［Key words］ commercial bank; corporate governance; market discipline; bond market; product innovation

　　信用衍生产品创新及监管路径选择
　　赖劲宇

　　［摘 要］　信用衍生品金融创新是一把“双刃剑”，在本轮次贷危机中，它暴露出一系列监管问题。本文系统分析了信用衍生产品的合约特性，进而指出在我国发展该产品时，应该坚持现行的政府监管和市场自律监管相结合的模式。2007年，中国银行间交易商协会的成立和《中国银行间金融衍生产品交易主协议》的出台虽然在一定程度上为信用衍生品在我国的发展创造了有利条件，但这仅为其发展做了基础性的铺垫，实践中推广这类金融产品还需要更加完善的自律监管、标准文本适用、信息披露和中介机构管理等制度。
　　［关键词］　信用衍生产品；次贷危机；政府监管；市场自律监管；NAFMⅡ协议文本

　　［Abstract］ The innovation of credit derivatives (CDs) is a double-edged sword, which exposed a series of supervision problems in the US subprime mortgage crisis. This paper analyzes the contractual characters of CDs and puts forward that it is necessary to combine the administrative supervision and self-regulation to instruct the development of CDs in China. Although the foundation of National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) in 2007 and the promulgation of NAFMII ACT create favorable conditions for the development of CDs in China to some extent, more integrated rules are required to popularize these financial products, especially in the aspects of self-regulation, standard agreement documents, information disclosure and the management on agencies.
　　［Key words］ credit derivatives; subprime mortgage crisis; administrative supervision; market self-regulation; NAFMII agreement documents

　　组合管理视角下银行信贷的退出——基于Creditrisk+模型的应用分析
　　郑 冲

　　［摘 要］　组合管理视角下的信贷退出框架由信贷退出对象的识别、信贷退出数量的确定以及信贷退出方式或工具的运用三部分构成。而覆盖组合非预期信贷损失的经济资本能够体现银行风险偏好，反映真实风险大小，因此成为信贷退出框架中的核心指标。应从经济资本耗用绝对量以及单位信用敞口经济资本占用相对水平两个角度评价信用风险大小，据此选择信贷退出对象。将经济资本同银行实际持有的可用资本水平相比较，可以确定银行最大风险承受能力下可接受的信贷限额规模，通过其与现有信用敞口的比较，能够判断实施信贷退出与否以及信贷退出数量。
　　［关键词］　信贷退出；信贷组合管理；Creditrisk+模型；经济资本

　　［Abstract］ The framework of credit retreat, based on the theory of portfolio management, is composed of three parts, which are credit retreat target's identification, retreat amount and retreat approach. Because Capital at Risk (CaR) can cover unexpected credit portfolio loss and reflect bank's risk preference and real risks, it is selected as the core indicator of this framework. The model assesses the credit risk from two angles: the absolute amount of depleted CaR and the relative level of CaR on single credit exposure. The result will offer ground for choosing retreat objectives. By comparing bank's CaR with available capital, a bank can decide the credit scale under its maximum risk tolerance, and by comparing this credit scale with the current credit exposure, it can judge whether to implement the credit retreat and the amount.
　　［Key words］ credit retreat; credit portfolio management; Creditrisk+ model; Capital at Risk

　　商业银行信息科技风险的量化计量研究
　　何茂春

　　［摘 要］　信息科技风险管理已经成为银行风险管理的重要组成部分，但目前信息科技风险的管理却存在着计量缺失的问题。信息系统事件量化定级是对银行信息科技风险量化计量和加强信息科技风险管理的一个探索。将影响信息系统事件级别的影响度、紧急度等关键因素的基本属性进行评估量化分解，以多因子事件等级量化方法，按照加权处理的原理，同预先设定的对应等级数值表对照比较，准确地给出事件等级的定级，为后续的事件处理和风险防范提供明确的依据。正确的事件等级的确定将有助于运行维护风险计量和控制，有利于合理调配资源和提高处置效率。
　　［关键词］　商业银行；风险管理；信息科技风险；事件定级；多因子方法

　　［Abstract］ Information technology risk management is an important component of risk management in commercial banks, but it still fails to use proper quantitative methods. Quantifying the classification of information system accidents is an exploration to quantify bank's information technology risk and strengthen such risk management. This method is to quantitatively break down the key factors affecting the grade of information system accident, such as the impact and urgency. By providing the factors of an accident with different weights, commercial banks can compare those factors with the table of classification criterion and get the classification of the accident, which can provide the definite standard for the follow-up disposal and risk precaution. Correctly grading the accident will benefit the safe operation of risk qualification and control and improve the efficiency of resource allocation and accident disposal.
　　［Key words］ commercial bank; risk management; information technology risk; the classification of accident; multi-factor method

　　解读信贷推动下的美国房地产泡沫与金融危机——基于2000～2008年月度数据的理论分析与实证检验
　　李 成　王建军

　　［摘 要］　本文在回顾了四代金融危机理论发展之后，从房地产泡沫、银行次贷资产膨胀的联动切入，将Allen-Gale模型加以发展应用于对本次美国次贷危机生成机理的理论分析，实证检验的结果与现实完全相符。研究得出以下结论：银行房地产信贷非理性扩张激励投资者投资风险资产，并引起房地产泡沫；本次金融危机的根源在于美国房地产泡沫的破裂；过度的金融创新和金融监管的缺位对泡沫的破裂负有责任。针对中国现状，作者提出我国应严格住房按揭贷款资格审验，避免向不合格客户发放贷款；鼓励合理金融创新，但防止过度金融创新。
　　［关键词］　美国房地产；金融危机；房地产泡沫；银行信贷

　　［Abstract］ After reviewing the development of four generations of the financial crisis theory, from the perspective of the interaction between the real estate bubble and the expansion of subprime assets in banks, the paper uses Allen-Gale model to analyze the formation mechanism of American subprime mortgage crisis, and the result is completely consistent with the reality. The main conclusions are: the irrational expansion of bank credit on the real estate industry encouraged investors to invest in risk assets and blew up the real estate bubble; the collapse of American real estate bubble is the root of this financial crisis; the excessive financial innovation and the absence of financial supervision have to take responsibility for the bubble burst. In view of China's situation, the author puts forward that China must rigorously enforce the qualification survey of residential mortgage to avoid offering loans to unqualified clients. Moreover, we should advocate the moderate financial innovation rather than the excessive financial innovation.
　　［Key words］ American real estate industry; financial crisis; the real estate bubble; bank credit

　　基于价值链的商业银行汽车金融业务战略设计
　　牛大勇　李柏洲

　　［摘 要］　随着汽车金融公司的崛起，我国汽车金融服务领域的市场竞争越来越激烈，商业银行在该领域的原有优势地位也受到挑战。商业银行应充分发挥其在价值链中的比较优势，根据汽车产业价值链的特点，积极制定相应的汽车金融业务发展战略。本文提出商业银行的汽车金融业务战略设计框架，具体包括建立汽车金融专门机构并培育汽车金融专业化团队，适时推出汽车金融业务创新产品，围绕汽车产业价值链拓展汽车金融业务，力争与保险公司建立战略联盟，适时与汽车金融公司由竞争转向合作关系，积极与我国具有汽车自主品牌的汽车金融公司建立紧密的合作关系等。
　　［关键词］　商业银行；汽车金融；价值链；自主品牌；战略联盟

　　［Abstract］ With the rising of the auto financing companies, the competition in the field of Chinese auto financing service becomes increasingly fierce. The dominant position of commercial banks in this field is also being challenged. Commercial banks should fully utilize its comparative advantage in the value chain and actively formulate the strategies of auto financing business according to the characteristics of the value chain in auto industry. This paper designs the strategy framework of auto financing business, which includes that commercial banks can set up specialized auto financing agency to cultivate the professional team, grasp the opportunity to provide the market with innovative products focusing on auto financing business, expand auto financing business centering on the value chain of auto industry, try to establish strategic alliance with insurance companies, timely switch the relationship with auto financing companies from competition to cooperation, and proactively fulfill the close cooperation with auto financing companies possessing their own auto brands.
　　［Key words］ commercial bank; auto financing; value chain; proprietary brand; strategic alliance

　　商业银行预算管理技术支持体系研究
　　陶能虹

　　［摘 要］　要充分发挥预算管理的效能，既要在组织体系建设、管理制度完善等方面打好基础，也需要必要的技术条件辅助。就整体而言，构建商业银行预算管理技术支持体系要从预算管理系统建设、核算体系配合和预算管理机制建设等方面入手，具体来说包括：围绕股东价值最大化目标，通过构建利润预算模型，引进科学的内部资金转移价格，开发综合性的预算管理系统，在会计科目体系及营业费用核算体系构建时注意考虑预算管理需求，从动力机制、决策机制、控制机制和评价机制角度建设预算管理机制等。
　　［关键词］　商业银行；预算管理技术支持体系；预算管理系统；预算管理机制；核算体系配合

　　［Abstract］ To exploit the utility of the budget management, both the solid foundation, including the organization and management system, and necessary technical support are required. Generally, establishing commercial bank's technical back-up system should begin with developing budget management system, the cooperation of accounting system and the budget management mechanism. In detail, centering on the target to maximize the shareholder's value, commercial banks can introduce scientific transfer price mechanism of internal funds with the help of profit budget model, and develop a comprehensive budget management system. Commercial banks must pay attention to the budget management demand when establishing account headings and accounting system of operating expenses, and construct the budget management system from the perspectives of motivation mechanism, decision-making mechanism, control mechanism and evaluation mechanism.
　　［Key words］ commercial bank; the technical back-up system of budget management; budget management system; budget management mechanism; the cooperation of accounting system

　　票据理财产品的银信合作模式、市场概况与政策思考
　　汪办兴

　　［摘 要］　2008年初，在从紧的货币政策下，银行开展票据理财产品成为市场的关注点。票据理财产品基本采用的是票据资产集合资金信托计划模式，其具有短期投资收益较高且稳定，流动性好和简化资产打包过程等优点。银行开展票据理财产品可以缓解信贷规模压力和获得中间业务收入，银行票据理财产品正迈入系列化和规模化发展的方向。由于自身独特的优势，票据理财产品可以成为商业银行经营票据业务的一种模式；但从监管层面考虑，商业银行开展票据理财也面临着政策性风险，中国应采取措施保证货币政策更为有效，并帮助商业银行更好地开展票据业务。
　　［关键词］　商业银行；信托公司；银信合作；票据理财产品

　　［Abstract］ In early 2008, under the tight monetary policy, commercial bank's wealth management products backed by bill assets come into the highlight on the market. With the form of trust, the products have many advantages, such as short maturity, high and stable return, good liquidity and simple structure. Through this business, commercial banks can not only relieve the pressure of credit scale, but also earn substantial intermediate business income. Wealth management products backed by bill assets are striding towards the serialization and large-scale. Given the specific advantages, commercial banks can use the products to operate bill business. However, from the perspective of supervision, commercial banks have to face some policy risks when operating those products. Therefore, the government should adopt measures to ensure the validity of monetary policies and help commercial banks to operate bill business better.
　　［Key words］ commercial bank; trust company; the cooperation between bank and trust company; wealth management product backed by bill assets

　　中国大型商业银行境外机构的营销策略研究——以中国工商银行（伦敦）有限公司为例
　　方 斐　肖 文

　　［摘 要］　金融全球化推动了越来越多的国内大型商业银行走出国门开展跨国经营。本文主要从市场营销的角度对中国大型商业银行境外机构的运营进行分析，首先概括了境外机构所处的成熟市场、港澳新市场和新兴市场各自的特征，然后从客户结构、业务品种、产品定价和营销渠道等方面对境外机构的营销现状进行考察并找出存在的问题。在此基础上，结合中国工商银行（伦敦）有限公司的营销案例，从市场定位、市场进入和市场拓展三方面策略阐述了可行的营销路径，从而进一步发展和巩固目标客户群，扩大市场份额，提高营销业绩。
　　［关键词］　中国大型商业银行；境外机构；营销渠道；市场营销策略

　　［Abstract］ The financial globalization is stimulating more and more Chinese large-sized commercial banks to go abroad and make their business multi-nationalized. This paper analyzes the operation of overseas subsidiaries of Chinese large-sized commercial banks from the perspective of the marketing. The paper first summarizes the characteristics of three main types of overseas markets-- the mature market, the markets of Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore, and the merging market. Then it explores the overseas subsidiaries' marketing status and scrutinizes their problems in customer structure, product mix, product pricing and marketing . Combing with the case of ICBC (London) Ltd., the paper expounds feasible marketing approaches by using strategies in market positioning, market entry and market expansion. This marketing approach will help ICBC (London) Ltd. to further develop and consolidate its niche market, increase the market share and improve the performance.
　　［Key words］ Chinese large-sized commercial banks; overseas subsidiary; marketing channel; marketing strategy

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