本刊专稿
我国境内商业银行信贷利差变化及对策研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (5)
The Change of SALIBLI of Domestic Commercial Banks and the Counter-measures
The Study Group, Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC (5)
理论研究
中国银行业市场化改革的效率效应——基于宏观投资效率的实证分析
刘仁和 米运生 (13)
The Efficiency Effect of Liberalization Reform in Chinese Banking——An Empirical Analysis Based on Macro- efficiency of Investment
LIU Ren-he MI Yun-sheng (13)
区域金融发展与区域经济增长——对北京、上海两地区域金融发展与区域经济增长关系进行比较
谢太峰 王子博 (19)
Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth——Comparative Analysis of the Relationship between Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth in Beijing and Shanghai
XIE Tai-feng WANG Zi-bo (19)
应用研究
国债收益率曲线构建的国际比较研究——兼论商业银行人民币收益率曲线的构建
胡新华 徐志宏 (23)
International Comparative Research on the Construction of Treasury Bond Yield Curves——To Establish Commercial Bank's RMB Yield Curves
HU Xin-hua XU Zhi-hong (23)
企业网上银行客户模糊聚类分群分析——兼论工商银行网上银行的目标市场定位和市场细分
孙尤嘉 (30)
An Analysis on Fuzzy Clustering and Grouping of E-banking Corporate Customers——With an Example of the Market Positioning and Segmentation of ICBC E-banking
SUN You-jia (30)
中国上市公司违约率的顺周期效应实证研究——评估巴塞尔协议II顺周期效应的初步尝试
鹿 波 (38)
Empirical Analysis on Procyclicality Effect of Default Probabilities of Chinese Listed Companies——Evaluation on the Procyclicality Effect of Basel Accord II
LU Bo (38)
调研报告
商业银行“1＋X”营销的成效、问题与配套措施——来自工商银行宁波分行的营销实践
胡茂祥 (45)
The Effect, Problems and Supporting Measures of "1+X" Marketing Approach in Commercial Bank——A Marketing Practice from ICBC Ningbo Branch
HU Mao-xiang (45)
中西部地区基层行调整经营结构和增长方式研究
卢晓秋 (51)
A Research on Transformation of Operating Structure and Growth Pattern of Basic Business Outlets in Central and Western China
LU Xiao-qiu (51)
业务探讨
全球金融动荡下的澳大利亚经济与金融——兼论当地中资银行的应对策略
韩瑞祥 (56)
The Economy and Finance Status of Australia Under Global Financial Crisis——The Counter-measures of Chinese Banks in Australia
HAN Rui-xiang (56)
汇丰私人银行案例研究及启示
叶 菲 张红军 (63)
Case Study on HSBC Group Private Bank and the Enlightenment
YE Fei ZHANG Hong-jun (63)
中国中小企业信贷风险评估研究
杨元泽 (69)
A Research of Credit Risk Evaluation on Chinese SMS Enterprises
YANG Yuan-ze (69)
商业银行票据业务事业部制改革研究
陈江伟 邹 江 (74)
The Reform of Bill Business of Commercial Bank into Strategic Business Unit
CHEN Jiang-wei ZOU Jiang (74)
我国境内商业银行信贷利差变化及对策研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］ 本文通过对我国境内商业银行信贷利差的分析，得出以下结论：首先，从宏观视角看，商业银行信贷利差与宏观经济周期性变化、融资结构和金融市场结构等宏观经济和金融生态环境密不可分；其次，从微观视角看，信贷利差差异与不同商业银行选取的利差决定模型、发展战略、资产负债结构和产品结构等密切相关。针对当前境内商业银行信贷利差管理中存在的问题，本文提出商业银行应在有效区分客户综合贡献度的前提下以利差作为议价的重要手段，构建盈利能力综合评价指标体系，提高中小企业信贷业务占比，多方配合以提高综合服务能力，并建立市场化的融资制度。
［关键词］ 商业银行；信贷利差；净息差；净利息收益率
［Abstract］ Through analyzing the spread between average loan interest and benchmark loan interest (SALIBLI) in Chinese commercial banks, the paper makes the following conclusions: first, from the macro-perspective, commercial bank's SALIBLI is closely related to the ecological environment of finance, such as the business cycle, the financing structure and the structure of financial market; second, from the micro-perspective, the difference of SALIBLI among commercial banks depends on their differences in interest spread pricing model, developing strategy, the structure of assets and liabilities and the product structure. Centering on the problems in managing SALIBLI, the paper proposes that under the premise of effectively distinguishing the composite contribution of customers, commercial banks should use SALIBLI as an important bargaining tool to build an integrated evaluation system on profitability, increase the proportion of credit business on small-and-medium-sized enterprises, improve the comprehensive service capability through multi-cooperation and establish the market-oriented financing mechanism.
［Key words］ commercial bank; the spread between average loan interest and benchmark loan interest; net interest spread; net interest margin
中国银行业市场化改革的效率效应——基于宏观投资效率的实证分析
刘仁和 米运生
［摘 要］ 在解决因信息不对称而引发的代理冲突方面，金融系统有比较优势和规模优势，因此也具备监督经理和提高投资效率的功能。但在金融抑制政策体系中，行政力量对金融中介的替代使这一功能基本消失。抑制政策在长期内降低投资效率，不利于经济发展。相应地，金融市场化改革能提高宏观投资效率。以银行部门为主，中国自20世纪90年代逐渐推行金融市场化改革。以1992～2006年为样本区间，就银行业市场化改革对宏观投资效率的影响问题，本文提供了实证分析。研究发现，银行业市场化显著提高了宏观投资效率。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；市场化改革；效率效应；宏观投资效率
［Abstract］ The financial system has the comparative and scale advantage when dealing with the agency problem resulting from the information asymmetry. Therefore, the financial system has the function of supervising managers and improving the investment efficiency. However, this function has been undermined because of the substitution of administrative power for financial intermediaries in a system of finance restrain. The restrain policy decreases the investment efficiency in a long run, which is unfavorable to economic development. Therefore, the financial liberalization reform can advance the macro-efficiency of investment. Focusing on the banking, Chinese government began to carry out the financial liberalization reform since 1990s. With the data from 1992 to 2006, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the influence of the liberalization reform of the banking on the macro-efficiency of investment. The result reveals that the liberalization of the banking remarkably improves the macro investment efficiency.
［Key words］ Chinese banking; liberalization reform; efficiency effect; macro-efficiency of investment
区域金融发展与区域经济增长——对北京、上海两地区域金融发展与区域经济增长关系进行比较
谢太峰 王子博
［摘 要］ 本文通过构建误差修正模型（ECM）并进行Granger因果检验，实证研究京沪区域金融发展与区域经济增长的内在逻辑联系，得出结论：京沪两地区域金融发展对其区域经济增长均有正向带动作用，而且上海地区金融发展对经济增长的影响力更大，北京地区金融发展对经济增长的影响更多地体现于后一期。北京地区金融发展和经济增长之间存在双向因果关系，而上海地区只存在金融发展引起经济增长的单向因果关系，京沪两地均存在经济增长内部的跨期影响。因此，对于京沪两大中心城市而言，为了推动地区经济高速增长，都要继续着力发展金融业。
［关键词］ 北京；上海；区域金融发展；区域经济增长；误差修正模型；Granger因果检验
［Abstract］ This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between regional financial development and regional economic growth in Beijing and Shanghai by using Error Correction Model (ECM) and Granger causality test. The results show that the financial development and economic growth are positively correlated in both Beijing and Shanghai, the influence of financial development in Shanghai is more significant and that in Beijing lags for one period. In addition, the financial development in Beijing is the Granger cause of regional economic growth and vice versa. However, the financial development in Shanghai is only the Granger cause of local economic growth. Furthermore, economic growth's lagged variables show influence on regional economic growth in the two areas. Therefore, as for the two center cities, Beijing and Shanghai, rigorously developing the financial industry will advance the rapid growth of local economy.
［Key words］ Beijing; Shanghai; regional financial development; regional economic growth; Error Correction Model (ECM); Granger causality test
国债收益率曲线构建的国际比较研究——兼论商业银行人民币收益率曲线的构建
胡新华 徐志宏
［摘 要］ 各国由于债券市场发达程度不尽相同，收益率曲线的构建方法各有特点、各有利弊。大多数国家采用Nelson-Siegel拟合法或其拓展的Svensson拟合法，还有平滑样条方法。由于我国债券市场发展滞后，且利率市场化刚刚起步，还没有形成具有基准意义的国债收益率曲线。商业银行人民币收益率曲线的构建可考虑在以下方面做出突破：一是推出基于现券交易的实时收益率曲线，为债券交易员提供交易参考；二是构建人民币利率互换曲线，为形成商业银行完整的收益率曲线体系提供基础；三是构建随机利率模型，为利率市场化和自主定价做好准备。
［关键词］ 债券；收益率曲线；利率期限结构；曲线拟合；Nelson-Siegel 模型；随机利率模型
［Abstract］ Different countries use different methods to construct their yield curves due to their different development level in bond markets. Most countries have adopted Nelison -Siegel model or its extension edition, Svensson model, as well as the smoothing spline method. With the lagged development of bond market and lack of market-oriented interest rate in China, the meaningful benchmark yield curve of treasury bonds has not come into being in the RMB market. In the process of establishing RMB yield curves, commercial banks can take the following steps: first, establishing a real-time yield curve based on the spot transaction to provide a reference for bond traders; second, establishing the RMB interest rate swap curve to construct the basis for a complete yield curve system; Finally, setting up stochastic interest rate models to prepare for the market-oriented interest rate and independent pricing capability.
［Key words］ bond; yield curve; term structure of interest rates; curve fitness; Nelson-Siegel model; stochastic interest rate model
企业网上银行客户模糊聚类分群分析——兼论工商银行网上银行的目标市场定位和市场细分
孙尤嘉
［摘 要］ 本文将模糊聚类分析方法应用于网上银行特征分析，并从客户行为和客户价值两个层面加以比较，将工商银行企业网上银行客户分为高端客户群、中小客户群和新兴市场客户群。高端客户对功能和服务需求简单，较少关心网上银行服务的提升和改进，营销应注重基础功能普及与完善；中小客户群为工行网银带来的直接收入少但对业务发展关注度高，应尽量向其提供个性化、方便快捷的功能；新兴市场客户群是最重要的潜力客户，要加强对客户回访营销和沟通以有效挖掘新需求。“稳定高端、站稳新兴、不放松中小”应是工行企业网上银行的目标和市场定位。
［关键词］ 工商银行；网上银行；模糊聚类；市场营销
［Abstract］ This paper uses fuzzy clustering approach to analyze E-banking features and makes a comparison from two levels: customer behavior and customer value. Then the paper divides ICBC E-banking corporate customers into three types: high-end customers, small-and- medium-sized customers and emerging customers. High-end customers require simple functions and services and care little about the improvement of E-banking, so the marketing activity facing them should emphasize the prevalence and enhancement of E-banking's basic functions. Small- and-medium-sized customers create less direct income for ICBC E-banking but pay close attention to E-banking's development, so ICBC should try to provide them with personalized and convenient functions. Emerging customers are the most important potential customers, and ICBC must strengthen return visit marketing and communication to dig for their new demands. “Stabilizing high-end customers, winning emerging customers and not relaxing SMS customers” should be the suitable market positioning of ICBC corporate E-banking business.
［Key words］ ICBC; E-banking; fuzzy clustering; marketing
中国上市公司违约率的顺周期效应实证研究——评估巴塞尔协议II顺周期效应的初步尝试
鹿 波
［摘 要］ 正确评估内部模型的顺周期效应有助于监管机构审查银行的内部模型。通过上市公司的交易数据并利用结构性模型得到上市公司每年的违约率，按照时间序列取均值发现，在1997年之后的通货紧缩时期这些公司的违约率却并没有上升，2006年以前上市公司违约率不具有顺周期效应，2007年的违约率则具有顺周期效应。从银行内部资产的相关数据和指标来构建内部模型更可能带来顺周期效应。对横截面特征的考察表明，得到的违约率数据能够很好地区分不同信用等级的上市公司。不同国家由于其金融市场的结构不同，顺周期效应带来的系统性风险也会不同。
［关键词］ 顺周期效应；内部模型；巴塞尔协议 II ；违约率；上市公司
［Abstract］ Correctly evaluating the procyclicality effect of an internal model of a bank can help the supervision agency to examine the model. By using a structural model and listed companies' trading data, the paper obtains the default probabilities of listed companies in each year. The time-series mean value of default probabilities demonstrates that default probabilities did not possess procyclicality before 2006 and did so in 2007. The internal models based on internal asset data and indicators of banks incline to be procyclical. An evaluation focusing on cross data characters shows that default probability is a suitable indicator to differentiate listed companies' credit rating. The procyclicality effect brings different systematic risks for various countries due to their discrepancies in the structure of financial market.
［Key words］ procyclicality effect; internal model; Basel Accord II; default probability; listed company
商业银行“1＋X”营销的成效、问题与配套措施——来自工商银行宁波分行的营销实践
胡茂祥
［摘 要］ 随着客户使用商业银行产品的增加，客户的依存度和忠诚度不断提升。中国工商银行宁波分行摸索出一条以融资业务为突破口，带动其他业务发展的营销策略，简称“1+X”营销。本文以该分行为例，在总结2008年以来“1+X”营销实践的基础上，分析了“1+X”营销取得的成效和存在的问题，并有针对性地提出了坚持实施“1+X”营销的相关配套措施。这些措施包括：统一认识，大力推进“1+X”营销；更新营销理念，进一步提升“1+X”营销效果；明晰产品线，尽力消除产品同质化；加大“1+X”营销的过程管理；全力提升营销人员队伍建设。
［关键词］ 商业银行；工商银行；营销策略；“1+X”营销
［Abstract］ Along with customers' increasing demand on a commercial bank's products, their dependence and loyalty to the bank are improving as well. ICBC Ningbo Branch creates a "1+X" marketing approach, which centers on the financing business to drive the growth of other business lines. This paper first reviews the practice of Ningbo Branch on the "1+X" marketing approach in 2008. Furthermore, the paper analyzes this approach's effect and problems, and proposes the supporting measures to better fulfill the marketing approach, which include: （1 ） unifying all staff's understanding on "1+X" marketing approach to make their best to employ the approach; （2） upgrading the marketing notion to improve its effect; （3） clarifying the product lines to eliminate the homogenization among product lines; （4） intensifying the process management in the marketing activities; （5） sparing no effort to cultivate the marketing staff.
［Key words］ commercial bank; ICBC; marketing strategy; "1+X" marketing approach
中西部地区基层行调整经营结构和增长方式研究
卢晓秋
［摘 要］ 本文通过对我国商业银行经营结构和增长方式现状的分析指出：市场资源相对贫乏的中西部地区基层行传统的经营结构和单一的增长方式已经无法适应新的金融竞争形势，经营发展面临着四大挑战：利率市场化趋势导致利差不断收窄；传统的业务发展方式受到抑制；日益开放的金融市场导致银行间的市场资源竞争进一步加剧；日益优化和升级的产业结构和消费结构，导致客户的金融服务需求更加个性化、综合化与复杂化。对此提出应对挑战的对策是：及时转变业务发展方式，尽快实现经营结构的转型，建立起多元化的业务结构、产品结构、客户结构和收入结构。
［关键词］ 中西部地区；商业银行；基层行；经营结构；增长方式
［Abstract］ By analyzing the status quo of operating structure and growth pattern of Chinese commercial banks, the paper points out that short of market resources, basic business outlets in central and western China fail to accommodate to new conditions of financial competition with traditional operating structure and single growth pattern. They generally face four big challenges in development: the trend of interest rate liberalization gradually narrows down the interest spread; the traditional mode of business development is increasingly restrained; the growing openness of financial market results in exacerbating competition among banks for market resources; continuously upgrading industry structure and consumption structure bring about increasingly personalized, integrated and complicated financial service demand of clients. The paper puts forward the following counter-measures: timely changing the development pattern of business, achieving the transformation of operating structure as soon as possible and establishing diversified business structure, product structure, client structure and income structure.
［Key words］ central and western China; commercial bank; basic business outlet; operating structure; growth pattern
全球金融动荡下的澳大利亚经济与金融——兼论当地中资银行的应对策略
韩瑞祥
［摘 要］ 虽然受到本轮全球金融危机的影响，但澳大利亚家庭、企业、政府的资产负债情况基本良好，每年数十万新移民可为经济发展提供稳定的需求，资源出口具有成本优势，积极的货币和财政政策将推进房地产行业及公共设施领域发展。澳大利亚银行业盈利相对稳定、资产质量指标良好，政府对银行融资提供担保，故银行业整体风险较小。在澳大利亚的中资银行应在风险可控以及风险可承受的前提下，把握市场机遇，明确发展重点，优先发展贸易融资和资源性银行业务等，提升和打造核心竞争力，同时要密切关注危机的后续影响，力争实现又快又好发展。
［关键词］ 金融危机；澳大利亚；银行业；中资银行
［Abstract］ Although impacted by the global financial crisis, the financial status of families, enterprises and the government in Australia is still good. Hundreds of thousands of new immigrants each year provide a stable demand for the economic development. Cost advantages stimulate nature resource's export. The active monetary and fiscal policies boost the development of real estate industry and public facilities. Both the profitability and asset quality of Australian banking keep stable and healthy, especially with the guarantee of the government for banks' financing, so the overall risks of Australian banking are relatively low. Under the premises of controllable and tolerable risks, Chinese banks in Australia must grasp the opportunity, clarify the development stress and put trade financing and business on nature resource trade in priority to establish their core competence. At the same time, they have to pay close attention to the impacts of financial crisis to ensure a rapid development with high quality.
［Key words］ financial crisis; Australia; the banking; Chinese banks
汇丰私人银行案例研究及启示
叶 菲 张红军
［摘 要］ 与有着百年历史的瑞士私人银行相比，汇丰私人银行的高速成长不过是最近10年的事。是什么原因使汇丰集团在短期内打造了国际一流私人银行？本文认为收购、量身订制和协同效应是汇丰的主要成功经验。国内私人银行业务的开展尚在起步阶段，我们认为汇丰经验对中国商业银行的启示有三：一是选择适当的时机通过海外收购搭建私人银行业务平台，获得领先的产品、技术和专业人才；二是推出独立的专家咨询服务，以高效的咨询流程和高质量的咨询建议提升私人银行的服务水平和竞争能力；三是发挥协同效应，有效利用客户转移和交叉销售推动私人银行业务发展。
［关键词］ 汇丰；私人银行；收购；协同效应
［Abstract］ Compared with Swiss private banks, which have more than 100-year history, HSBC Group Private Bank just grew up rapidly in the past 10 years. How could HSBC Group make such brilliant achievement in its private banking services in short term? This paper argues that acquisition, tailored services and synergy are major factors which made HSBC successful. In the context that domestic private banking is still on the initial stage, HSBC provides precise experience for Chinese commercial banks as follows: (1) Chinese commercial banks should grasp opportunities to acquire overseas private banks to obtain their leading products, technologies and professional talents; (2) Chinese commercial banks should provide independent professional consulting service, using efficient consulting process and high-quality advices to improve private banking's service quality and competitiveness; (3) with the help of synergy, Chinese commercial banks can use customer shift and cross-selling to promote the development of private banking.
［Key words］ HSBC; private bank; acquisition; synergy
中国中小企业信贷风险评估研究
杨元泽
［摘 要］ 近年来各家金融企业都加大了对中小企业的贷款力度，与之相适应，国内对于中小企业融资以及信贷风险管理问题的研究也在不断深化。本文结合当今国内外中小企业信贷管理的经验和我国中小企业的特点，针对中小企业信贷风险管理的零售化趋势，分析了金融企业应如何针对中小企业的特点发展信贷风险评估技术，并对完善中小企业的信贷风险管理技术提出了具体的建议，包括：建立标准化的中小企业信贷风险评估体系；建立与小企业授信相符的风险评估管理流程；建立中小企业信贷基础数据库，为完善中小企业信用风险评估技术奠定基础。
［关键词］ 金融企业；中小企业；信贷风险管理；风险评估；零售化
［Abstract］ In recent years, financial institutes generally pay more and more attention to issuing loans to small-and-medium-sized (SMS) enterprises. Accordingly, domestic research on the financing of SMS enterprises and the credit risk management is continously deepening. Combining the experience of the credit management facing SMS enterprises with Chinese SMS enterprise's characters, especially the retailing trend of credit risk management on SMS enterprises, the paper analyzes the approaches of financial institutes to develop credit risk evaluation technologies suitable to SMS enterprises and proposes some suggestions on how to perfect the credit risk management technologies, including establishing a standardized evaluation system on SMS enterprise's credit risks, setting up a risk evaluation management process synchronous to the process of credit rating to SMS enterprises and creating a database for SMS enterprise credit to lay the foundation for perfecting evaluation technologies on SMS enterprise's credit risks.
［Key words］ financial institute; small-and-medium-sized enterprise; credit risk management; risk evaluation; retailing trend
商业银行票据业务事业部制改革研究
陈江伟 邹 江
［摘 要］ 我国商业银行票据业务先后经历了探索起步、制度建设、快速发展三个阶段，在法律体系、风险防控、利率市场化、业务创新等诸多方面取得非凡成就的同时，在经营机制改革、风险技术推广、经营作用发挥、区域发展平衡等方面也暴露出一定的发展瓶颈，票据业务在整体金融市场中的作用仍待进一步发挥。针对上述情况，本文提出商业银行应通过事业部制改革促进票据业务的新发展，并从组织管理体系和组织架构、业务运行模式、与内部分行的关系、经营管理模式四个方面阐述了大型商业银行票据业务事业部制改革方案的初步设想，具有一定的应用价值。
［关键词］ 商业银行；票据业务；事业部制
［Abstract］ Chinese commercial bank's bill business has experienced three phases: start-up, system construction and rapid development. Besides making many brilliant achievements in legal system, risk control, interest rate liberalization, business innovation, etc., the bill business also face the bottleneck for the future development, especially in the fields of operating mechanism reform, the spread of risk control technology, the role in the operation and the balance in regional development. The function of bill business in overall financial market is yet to be fully played. Therefore, the paper puts forward that commercial banks should reform the operating structure of bill business into strategic business unit (SBU) to promote its development. In addition, the paper presents a preliminary reform plan, concerning organization management system and structure, business operation mode, the relationship between SBU and internal branches and operation and management pattern.
［ Key words］ commercial bank; bill business; strategic business unit
往期内容：
《金融论坛》2009年第2期中英文目录及摘要
《金融论坛》 2009年第1期中英文目录及摘要
《金融论坛》2008年中英文目录及摘要