形势分析
当前扩大内需应该把握好的几个问题
田秋生 牛江涛 (5)
Several Principles in Expanding Chinese Domestic Demand
TIAN Qiu-sheng NIU Jiang-tao (5)
理论研究
商业银行经济资本“组合效应”与分配方法研究
陈 阳 郑新广 (10)
The Portfolio Effect and Allocation Approaches on Economic Capital
CHEN Yang ZHENG Xin-guang (10)
商业银行跨国经营模式的理论分析与实证检验
李伟杰 宋 焱 (18)
Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Testing on Organizational Models of Multinational Commercial Banks
LI Wei-jie SONG Yan (18)
社会责任视角下提升商业银行核心竞争力研究
刘亦文 (26)
To Improve Chinese Commercial Banks' Core Competence from the Perspective of Social Responsibility
LIU Yi-wen (26)
应用研究
商业银行操作风险高级计量模型的分析与应用
范洪波 (32)
Analysis and Application of Advanced Measurement Models of Operational Risks in Commercial Banks
FAN Hong-bo (32)
商业银行行长胜任力测评量表的编制及应用研究
黄勋敬 (38)
The Compilation and Application of Competency Appraisal Scale for Governors of Commercial Banks
HUANG Xun-jing (38)
资本监管压力下的商业银行风险承担行为——基于不同性质商业银行(2004－2007)的比较研究
曹艳华 (45)
Commercial Banks' Risk-taking Behaviors Under the Pressure of Capital Regulation——Comparative Analysis on Commercial Banks with Different Properties (2004-2007)
CAO Yan-hua (45)
业务探讨
美国次贷危机对我国房地产信贷风险研究的启示
张 雯 (51)
The Enlightment of Subprime Mortgage Crisis in U.S. for Study on Credit Risks in Chinese Real Estate Industry
ZHANG Wen (51)
信用卡消费偏好与营销策略制定——以北京、天津、上海和深圳地区青年白领人群为例
王大海 韩德昌 郑玉香 (57)
Consumption Preference for Credit Cards and the Marketing Strategies——With the Sample of Young White-collar Consumers in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzhen
Wang Da-hai HAN De-chang ZHENG Yu-xiang (57)
中小商业银行实施战略采购研究
王 新 贾自强 (65)
Strategic Procurement of Middle and Small Commercial Banks
WANG Xin JIA Zi-qiang (65)
利率市场化改革对商业银行经营的影响及建议——以山西省商业银行为例进行分析
周 梅 扈照轼 (72)
The Influence of Interest Rate Liberalization Reform on Commercial Bank's Operation and the Suggestions——An Analysis Based on Commercial Banks in Shanxi Province
ZHOU Mei HU Zhao-shi (72)
新作评介
经济学思维范式的“失真”与“危机校准”——评《次贷危机正在改变世界》
李 念 (78)
The Distortion and Crisis Calibration of Economics Paradigm——A Review of Subprime Mortgage Crisis Is Changing the World
LI Nian (78)
当前扩大内需应该把握好的几个问题
田秋生 牛江涛
［摘 要］ 扩大内需必须把握好五个问题：第一，扩大内需必须以增加就业、减少失业为第一目标。第二，中小企业是吸纳就业的主力军，但目前生产经营困难最大，因此扩大内需必须以保护中小企业生存发展为核心。第三，消费需求是总需求中最大的部分，投资需求最终也决定于消费需求，扩大内需必须撬动居民消费需求。第四，有些人“花钱没有钱”，有些人“钱少不敢花”，有些人“钱多花不了”，扩大不同群体的消费需求应该有不同措施。第五，此次中国经济下滑，在很大程度上是因为经济结构严重失衡引起的，因此扩大内需必须与经济结构调整相结合。
［关键词］ 扩大内需；促进就业；消费信贷；结构调整
［Abstract］ When expanding domestic demand, five principles must be followed. First, the primary objective to expand domestic demand is to increase employment and decrease unemployment. Second, the core is to protect the development of small-and-medium sized enterprises, which are the main sector to absorb working force and face the most serious operating pressure as well. Third, consumption accounts for the biggest part of the total demand and investment is virtually decided by consumption, so expanding domestic demand must focus on stimulating the household consumption. Fourth, Chinese residents can be classified into three types: “with consumption desire -without money”, “not dare to consume- with little money” and “no channel to consume- with money”. Therefore, different measures should be utilized to satisfy different groups' demand. The last but not the least, the slowdown of Chinese economy growth, to a large extent, is derived from serious disequilibrium of economic structure, so expanding domestic demand must be fulfilled with combination of adjustment of economic structure.
［Key words］ expand domestic demand; stimulate employment; consumption credit; structure adjustment
商业银行经济资本“组合效应”与分配方法研究
陈 阳 郑新广
［摘 要］ 由于银行资产发生损失之间具有相关性，信用资产组合的经济资本一般不等于组合内部分项计算的经济资本的总和，经济资本存在着组合效应。本文分析了影响“组合效应”的基本因素，使用蒙特卡罗模拟的方法对经济资本分配方法中“组合效应”的影响进行了比较分析，将“组合效应”进一步分解为“组内效应”和“组间效应”，根据这两种效应的反应特性，对各种分配方法的优点和局限性进行了考察。分析的结果表明，目前银行业正在使用的各种分配方法中，不存在适用于所有情况的最优分配方法，需要根据管理目标的不同及信贷组合的结构现状选用不同的分配方法。
［关键词］ 商业银行；经济资本；组合效应；蒙特卡洛模拟法
［Abstract］ Because the loss occurrences of bank's credit assets are correlated, the economic capital of a credit portfolio is usually not equal to the sum of the economic capital on sub-portfolios in the portfolio. In other words, there is portfolio effect in economic capital. The paper analyzes the factors influencing the portfolio effect and contrasts portfolio effects among different allocation approaches of economic capital with Monte Carlo simulation. The portfolio effect is broken down to intra-group effect and inter-group effect, the response characteristics of which reveal the advantages and limitations of an allocation approach. Because there is no optimal allocation method applicable to all circumstances, the appropriate allocation method is required to select according to the management objective and the structure of credit portfolio.
［Key words］ commercial bank; economic capital; portfolio effect; Monte Carlo simulation
商业银行跨国经营模式的理论分析与实证检验
李伟杰 宋 焱
［摘 要］ 商业银行一般可以通过代表处、办事处、分支行、代理行及附属行等不同的组织模式实现跨国经营，概括起来可分为分支行和附属行两大类。而在实际中，由于经济责任、竞争环境、东道国风险及监管等方面的限制，商业银行跨国经营模式选择需要有多方面的考虑。本文从理论上分析了可能对商业银行跨国经营模式产生影响的四类因素，并应用全球最大的100家商业银行在东欧和拉美地区的业务数据，建立离散因变量模型，研究各类因素对商业银行跨国经营模式选择的影响。理论分析和实证检验的结果对中国商业银行跨国经营的模式选择有参考意义。
［关键词］ 商业银行；跨国经营；组织模式；分支行；附属行
［Abstract］ Commercial banks usually make multinational operation through various organizational models such as representative office, agency, branch, affiliated bank and subsidiary, which fall into two types: branches and subsidiaries. In practice, limited by economic responsibility, competitive environment, risks in host countries and supervision, commercial banks have to consider a variety of factors when choosing suitable organizational model. This paper theoretically analyzes four major factors affecting commercial bank's choice in organizational models of multinational operation and creates a Probit model with 100 commercial banks' business data in Eastern Europe and Latin America to test the influence of those factors on commercial bank's choice. The results would provide positive reference for Chinese commercial banks to select organizational models in multinational operation.
［Key words］ commercial bank; multinational operation; organizational model; branch; subsidiary
社会责任视角下提升商业银行核心竞争力研究
刘亦文
［摘 要］ 金融体系作为经济活动的一个重要组成部分，与社会责任存在互动关系。本文基于社会责任视角对我国商业银行核心竞争力的提升进行研究。研究表明：社会责任和我国商业银行核心竞争力在0.05的显著性水平上显著相关；社会责任对商业银行核心竞争力的影响主要表现为对商业银行核心风险和投资风险的影响。社会组织对社会承担的责任是最具影响力的要素，相关因素也会在一定程度上影响我国商业银行的核心竞争力；社会组织对环境的责任对我国商业银行核心竞争力的影响程度最小。我国商业银行应树立承担社会责任的新理念，这有利于银行的长远发展。
［关键词］ 社会责任；商业银行；核心竞争力；社会组织
［Abstract］ As an important part of the whole economy, financial system interacts with the social responsibility. The paper makes a research on how to improve Chinese commercial banks' core competence from the angle of social responsibility. The results show that the social responsibility and commercial banks' core competence are significantly correlated in the 0.05 significance level. The impact of social responsibility on the core competence mainly concentrates on commercial banks' core risks and investment risks. Social organization is the most influential factor to the social responsibility, so it affects commercial banks' core competence to some extent. The responsibility of social organization to the environment has the least influence on the core competence. Chinese commercial banks should establish a new notion to shoulder the social responsibility, which will contributes to their long-term development.
［Key words］ social responsibility; commercial bank; core competence; social organization
商业银行操作风险高级计量模型的分析与应用
范洪波
［摘 要］ 运用高级计量法（AMA）度量商业银行的操作风险已取得业界的广泛共识。本文首先详细评析了高级计量法体系中具有代表性的内部衡量法、计分卡法、极值原理法和损失分布法的基本原理及各自优缺点，进而以德意志银行为例阐释了如何利用损失分布法进行操作风险经济资本计量。本文提出，我国商业银行要有效实施AMA，必须在“风险－收益”合理配比的原则下，加强损失数据的收集；由于不同计量模型的适用条件不同，借鉴国际经验，将损失分布法和极值原理法相结合将是我国商业银行操作风险计量的最佳选择。
［关键词］ 风险管理；操作风险；高级计量法；经济资本；损失分布法
［Abstract］ Advanced measurement approaches (AMA) are extensively accepted by commercial banks to assess operational risks. The paper first scrutinizes the basic principles, advantages and disadvantages of three representative advanced measurement approaches, which are Internal Measurement Approach (IMA), Scorecard Approach (SCA), Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and Loss Distribution Approach (LDA). Furthermore, the paper expounds how Deutsche Bank uses LDA to estimate Capital at Risk to cover the operational risks. To implement AMA, Chinese commercial banks must conform to the matching principle of risk and income and strengthen the collection of loss data. Because different measurement models have specific applicable conditions, drawing the experiences of international banking, Chinese commercial banks should combine LDA with EVT to measure operational risks.
［Key words］ risk management; operational risk; advanced measurement approach; Capital at Risk; Loss Distribution Approach
商业银行行长胜任力测评量表的编制及应用研究
黄勋敬
［摘 要］ 本研究基于前项研究构建的“商业银行行长胜任力模型”编制了《商业银行行长胜任力测验》量表，该量表包括分析性思维与风险意识、合作与自我提升、开拓与主动性、组织协调、客户导向与服务意识、执行力、责任感、成就导向、目标导向等九个维度和测谎分量表。通过对1 447名在岗行长进行量表调查结果表明，该测评量表的信效度指标较好，测验工具性能良好，可以在商业银行推广应用。该测评量表可以为商业银行行长的选拔、绩效考核以及培训提供专业化的参谋支持，并以此促进商业银行提升经营管理业绩。
［关键词］ 商业银行；行长；胜任力模型；量表；人才测评；行为金融
［Abstract］ On the basis of “Competency Model for Governors of Commercial Banks”, an earlier study achievement, the paper compiles a competency appraisal scale for governors of commercial banks, which consists of nine dimensions and a lie-detecting sub-scale. The nine dimensions are (1)thinking and risk awareness; (2)cooperation and self-improvement; (3)pioneering and initiative spirits; (4) organization and reconciliation; (5) client orientation and service awareness; (6)executive ability; (7)responsibility; (8)achievement orientation; (9) objective orientation. A survey with the sample of 1 447 on-the-job bank governors reveals that the confidence indicator and the measurement function of the appraisal scale are satisfactory, so the scale can be utilized extensively in commercial banks. The appraisal scale will provide a reference to bank's governor selection, performance evaluation and training, and improve the operation and management performance of commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; governor; competency model; scale; human resource appraisal; behavioral finance
资本监管压力下的商业银行风险承担行为——基于不同性质商业银行（2004－2007）的比较研究
曹艳华
［摘 要］ 本文以商业银行2004～2007年的年报为数据来源，对资本充足率监管对风险承担行为的影响进行实证分析。研究结果表明，《商业银行资本充足率管理办法》的实施对中国商业银行的风险承担行为产生了显著影响，即不论银行的资本状况如何，其资产风险都显著降低。对于不同性质的商业银行而言，资本监管压力对国有商业银行的风险承担行为不具有显著性影响；当资本充足率小于8%时，监管惩罚压力会显著降低股份制商业银行的资产风险；而城市商业银行不论其资本状况如何，资产风险都显著降低，同时城市商业银行的风险承担行为表现出一定的内生稳定性。
［关键词］ 资本监管压力；商业银行；风险承担行为；资本充足率
［Abstract］ This paper empirically analyzes the impact of regulation on capital adequacy ratio on commercial banks' risk-taking behaviors with the data of commercial banks' annual reports from 2004 to 2007. The results reveal that the implementation of Regulation Governing Capital Adequacy of Commercial Banks profoundly influenced Chinese commercial banks' risk-taking behaviors, and banks' asset risks decreased significantly no matter what the capital status. In detail, capital regulation pressure fails to show significant impact on state-owned commercial banks' risk-taking behaviors. When capital adequacy was below 8%, strong supervision pressure from punishment notably reduced joint-stock banks' asset risks. City commercial banks' asset risks generally decreased no matter what the capital status, and their risk-taking behaviors show the characteristic of endogenous stability to some extent.
［Key words］ the pressure of capital regulation; commercial bank; risk-taking behavior; capital adequacy ratio
美国次贷危机对我国房地产信贷风险研究的启示
张 雯
［摘 要］ 2003年以来，我国房地产信贷呈现爆发性增长，各家商业银行的房地产信贷业务表现突出。但是我国土地供应的制度性缺陷、房地产供需的结构性矛盾、房地产价格的无序上涨、融资渠道的不健全以及商业银行信贷管理水平的落后，使得我国房地产信贷的风险日渐集聚。尤其在美国次贷危机发生后，我们必须重新审视被各家商业银行视为优质资产的房地产信贷，吸取次贷危机教训，注重防范房地产周期调整引发的信贷风险，高度重视住房抵押贷款背后隐藏的风险，严格执行信贷审查标准和管理要求，加强内控制度建设，强化审慎合规经营。
［关键词］ 商业银行；房地产信贷；次贷危机；风险研究
［Abstract］ Since 2003, the credit size in Chinese real estate industry has been experiencing an explosive growth, which provides brilliant performance for commercial banks in credit business on real estate industry. However, due to institutional defects in land supply, structural contradiction between supply and demand of real estate, disorderly rise of price, unsound financing and commercial bank's backward management on credit business, risks in Chinese real estate industry are gradually concentrating. Especially after the outbreak of subprime mortgage crisis in U.S., it is necessary to re-examine the credit assets in real estate industry, so-called high-quality assets in the eyes of commercial banks. We must learn from the crisis, guard against credit risks resulted from the cyclical adjustment in the real estate industry, attach great importance to risks hiding behind resident mortgages, strictly comply with credit examination standard and relevant management requirements, strengthen the internal mechanism construction and emphasize the prudent and compliant operation.
［Key words］ commercial bank; credit in real estate industry; subprime mortgage crisis; risk study
信用卡消费偏好与营销策略制定——以北京、天津、上海和深圳地区青年白领人群为例
王大海 韩德昌 郑玉香
［摘 要］ 本文以抽样调查北京、天津、上海、深圳四个典型城市的青年白领人群为基础，借助联合分析法，实证研究了品牌形象、促销诱因、服务便利性和感知风险对青年白领群体信用卡消费偏好的影响。总体而言，品牌形象与服务便利性因素是青年白领最重视的因素。进一步按信用卡使用情况、性别、受教育水平和月平均收入四个方面对青年白领加以细分发现，具有不同人口特征的青年白领在四种属性上的偏好存在明显差异。这表明中国信用卡市场在个人消费特征上具有分层特性，发卡机构应针对消费者不同的利益诉求有针对性地制定营销策略。
［关键词］ 信用卡；青年白领；消费偏好；联合分析法；营销策略
［Abstract］ With the sample of young white-collar consumers in four representative cities, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzhen, the paper employs conjoint analysis approach to empirically study the influences of brand image, promotion, service convenience and risk perception on the preference of young white-collar consumers in selecting credit card. In general, brand image and service convenience are the factors which young white-collar consumers emphasize most. Furthermore, white-collar consumers with different demographic characteristics, segmented according to circumstances in using credit card, gender, education degree and average monthly income, show distinct differences in the four attributes. The research results indicate that personal consumption in credit cards in China manifests hierarchy feature, so credit card distribution institutions should make marketing strategies customized to diversified demand of customers.
［Key words］ credit card; young white-collar consumers; consumption preference; conjoint analysis approach; marketing strategy
中小商业银行实施战略采购研究
王 新 贾自强
［摘 要］ 自2001年以来，国内商业银行陆续借鉴政府采购的做法开展了集中采购，但商业银行业务发展不断变化的迫切需求仍与集中采购现状之间存在着一系列的矛盾，作者通过对战略采购与集中采购的比较，提出商业银行尤其是中小商业银行应尽快实施战略采购。作者还就中小商业银行建立战略采购体系提出相关策略建议：研究并制定采购战略规划，建立扁平化的战略采购组织架构，搭建战略采购制度体系，建立采购品类分类目录，制定差异化采购策略以及启用示范类采购文本等。另外，作者指出中小商业银行对核心品类的采购应优先考虑实行战略采购。
［关键词］ 中小商业银行；战略采购；集中采购；核心品类
［Abstract］ Since the implementation of Rules on Strengthening the Management on State-owned Financial Suppliers' Centralized Procurement, domestic commercial banks gradually carry out centralized procurement with reference to the experience of government procurement. However, there is a series of contradictions between the pressing demand of business development of commercial banks and the status quo of centralized procurement. By contrasting strategic and centralized procurement, the author proposes that commercial banks, especially middle and small commercial banks, should implement strategic procurement as soon as possible. Moreover, the author makes the following suggestions on establishing strategic procurement system for middle and small banks: studying and making strategic procurement plan, constructing a flat procurement organization, formulating strategic procurement mechanism, establishing a category list of purchasing goods, drafting differential procurement strategy and begin to use procurement contract template. In addition, the author advocates that middle and small banks should first carry out the strategic procurement on core purchasing goods.
［Key words］ middle and small commercial bank; strategic procurement; centralized procurement; core purchasing goods
利率市场化改革对商业银行经营的影响及建议——以山西省商业银行为例进行分析
周 梅 扈照轼
［摘 要］ 随着我国利率市场化改革进程的加快，资金价格对商业银行经营的影响逐渐显现，如何应对利率市场化改革是商业银行不能回避的问题。本文提出商业银行应进行经营理念创新，以新的视点来审视与中小企业之间的业务合作，达到商业银行与企业双赢的目的；应建立利率风险管理运作机制；在继承资产负债传统业务优势的基础上，加快建立以利率风险管理为核心的资产负债综合管理指标体系；尽快采用先进的利率风险计量分析模型，通过量化指标为决策者提供依据；提高利率定价水平，建立利率市场监测系统，为纠正利率偏差提供依据。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；山西；商业银行；利率风险；盈利模式
［Abstract］ As Chinese interest rate liberalization reform is accelerating, the influence of fund price on commercial bank's operation is gradually emerging. Therefore, how to response to the reform is an unavoidable challenge for commercial banks. First, commercial banks should innovate the operation notion and carry out business cooperation with small-and-medium sized enterprises from new angle to achieve the win-win of both sides. Second, commercial banks should establish a strict mechanism to manage interest rate risk and accelerate to build a synthesized asset-liability management indicator system on the basis of advantages in traditional asset-liability business. Third, commercial banks should adopt advanced measurement models of interest rate risk as soon as possible, the quantitative indicators from which can provide grounds for decision-makers. Finally, improving the ability to make interest rate pricing and constructing a monitoring system on interest rate can facilitate correcting the interest rate deviation.
［Key words］ interest rate liberalization; Shanxi; commercial bank; interest rate risk; profit pattern
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