本刊专稿
上海国际金融中心建设与大型银行发展路径选择——关于工商银行上海分行提升市场竞争力实现可持续发展的思考
沈立强 (5)
The Construction of Shanghai International Financial Center and the Choice of Large Commercial Banks' Development Path——How to Enhance the Competitiveness of ICBC Shanghai Branch and Achieve Sustainable Development
SHEN Li-qiang (5)
市场分析
金融危机对全球新兴市场的影响及未来展望
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (11)
The Impact of Financial Crisis on Global Emerging Markets and the Outlook
The Study Group of Urban Finance Research Institute of ICBC (11)
次贷危机对美国银行业结构调整影响研究
边卫红 (18)
The Influence of Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis on the Structural Adjustment of U.S. Banking
BIAN Wei-hong (18)
中国区域金融结构差异研究
何晓夏 章 林 (25)
The Disparities of Financial Structures Among Different Regions in China
HE Xiao-xia ZHANG Lin (25)
实证研究
商业银行并购风险的识别与防范研究
陶能虹 (32)
Identification and Prevention of Commercial Bank's M&A Risks
TAO Neng-hong (32)
从发卡银行看银行卡欺诈法律风险的防控
中国工商银行法律事务部课题组 (39)
Legal Risk Prevention and Control of Bank Card Fraud from the Perspective of Card-issuing Bank
The Study Group of Legal Affairs Department of ICBC (39)
试论金融创新的社会信用环境基础
洪 玫 (45)
A Research on the Social Credit Environment as the Basis of Financial Innovation
HONG Mei (45)
公允价值变动对中国上市公司影响的实证分析——从盈利和股价波动的视角进行
陈学彬 许敏敏 (50)
An Empirical Research on the Influence of Fair Value Volatility on Chinese Listed Companies——From the Perspective of the Volatility of Earnings and Stock Prices
CHEN Xue-bin XU Min-min (50)
业务探讨
试论新形势下商业银行的信贷风险防范——基于企业融资结构和企业税负的视角
张合金 贺潇颍 (56)
The Prevention Against Credit Risk of Commercial Banks——From the Angles of Financing Structure and Tax Burden of Enterprises
ZHANG He-jin HE Xiao-ying (56)
以市场为导向的商业银行动态预算管理机制研究
潘小明 李 杰 (61)
Market-oriented and Dynamic Budgeting Mechanism of Commercial Banks
PAN Xiao-ming LI Jie (61)
从美国次贷危机看资产证券化的基本功能
王 晓 李 佳 (67)
The Basic Functions of Asset Securitization with the Inspiration from U.S. Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis
WANG Xiao LI Jia (67)
调研报告
网上银行业务顾客满意度及忠诚度问题研究
吴 炜 刘 琼 易 娜 常 诚 (72)
Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty of Internet Banking
WU Wei LIU Qiong YI Na CHANG Cheng (72)
学术动态
探讨危机启示，寻求中国银行业发展创新之路——“第三届中国银行业博士后论坛”综述
黄 旭 (79)
Probing into the Inspiration of Financial Crisis and Exploring the Innovative Development
of Chinese Banking——The Summary of "The Third Session of Post-doctoral Forum of Chinese Banking"
HUANG Xu (79)
上海国际金融中心建设与大型银行发展路径选择——关于工商银行上海分行提升市场竞争力实现可持续发展的思考
沈立强
［摘 要］ 国家关于加快推进上海“两个中心”建设的总体部署，将进一步推动市场体系和制度环境的完善，加快产业结构优化升级，加速资金流、物流和信息流的汇聚与辐射。加快国际金融中心建设，既对我国大型商业银行传统经营模式和增长方式提出了严峻的挑战，也对其加快转型和创新发展提供了良好的宏观背景和广阔舞台。本文以中国工商银行上海分行为例，探讨了未来三年的经营目标、发展思路和举措。如何抓住机遇，积极竞争“红海”，在加快发展中提升市场竞争水平；加快开拓“蓝海”，在创新发展中推动经营转型，这是我国大型商业银行的发展路径选择。
［关键词］ 上海；国际金融中心；工商银行；发展路径；市场竞争力
［Abstract］ The overall plan of accelerating to construct Shanghai into "two centers" will further improve the market system and institutional environment, speed up the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure, and accelerate the convergence and radiation of capital flow, logistics and information flow. To speed up the construction of international financial center, does not only seriously challenge the traditional business model and growth pattern of large commercial banks in China, but also provide them with a good background and broad stage to accelerate the transformation and innovative development. With the case of ICBC Shanghai Branch, the paper discusses its strategic objective and development measures in the next three years. The feasible path choice for large commercial banks is to seize the opportunity to actively compete for the Red Ocean and enhance the competitiveness, and to expand the Blue Ocean and speed up business transformation.
［Key words］ Shanghai; international financial center; ICBC; development path; competitiveness
金融危机对全球新兴市场的影响及未来展望
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］ 全球金融危机通过资本流动和贸易渠道逐步由发达经济体向新兴市场传导，并在新兴市场内部迅速传染，致使新兴市场经济在各区域和区域内部均出现较大分化。随着大规模经济刺激政策效果的逐步显现，新兴市场经济逐步走出衰退，但其面临的风险亦不容忽视。展望未来，以中国为代表的新兴市场将成为全球经济增长的重要引擎，同时，新兴市场发展有望继续推动全球经济再平衡进程稳步向前。新兴市场内部，亚洲有望长期领跑；非洲将继续稳步崛起；拉美市场中巴西增长潜力巨大，但区域增长波动性堪忧；中东欧经济短期内难以东山再起。
［关键词］ 全球金融危机；新兴市场；市场分化；再平衡；增长引擎
［Abstract］ Through capital flow and trade channel, the global financial crisis has gradually transmitted from developed nations to emerging markets and rapidly infected among emerging markets, leading to significant economic differentiation among and within different regions of emerging markets. As the massive stimulus packages are gradually boosting world economy, the economy of emerging markets also shows positive signs of stabilization and recovery. However, considerable uncertainty and risks still surround their outlook. Looking ahead to the future, the paper argues that emerging markets, represented by China, are expected to act as an important engine of global economic growth, and the development of emerging markets is likely to enhance the process of rebalance of global economy. Asia is expected to lead emerging markets in the long term, and Africa will recover steadily. Brazil shows great growth potential, but the growth of Latin American market may face significant volatility. It is difficult for Central and Southern Europe to resurge in the short term.
［Key words］ global financial crisis； emerging market； market differentiation; rebalance; growth engine
次贷危机对美国银行业结构调整影响研究
边卫红
［摘 要］ 次贷危机正以前所未有的力度改写着美国银行业的格局。美国银行业将经历一轮市场结构的整合，银行业的集中和垄断程度将进一步上升。随着传统银行经营模式的复兴，影子银行将继续萎缩，银行的杠杆率进一步降低，盲目做大表外业务和顺周期的经营方式将有所改变。以金融控股公司为主的全能银行仍将是美国银行业的主要发展模式，全能银行通过分拆之路从追求范围经济向归核化转变。全球金融危机造就金融监管改革的契机，监管机构将从资本管理、信息披露和流动性管理等方面对银行业实施更加全面严格的监管。
［关键词］ 美国银行业；次贷危机；结构调整；影子银行；全能银行；金融监管
［Abstract］ The sup-prime mortgage crisis is changing the structure of U.S. banking with unprecedented strength. U.S. banking is experiencing a new reorganization, and the industry concentration will be further promoted in the future. With the revival of traditional banking model, shadow banks will continue to shrink, leverage ratio will be further decreased, and the status quo of blindly expanding off-balance-sheet business and pro-cyclical operating pattern will change. Universal banks, represented by financial holding companies, will continue to be the main form of large U.S. banks, and those banks will switch from pursuing scope economy to refocusing strategy through divestiture. The global financial crisis creates a chance for the reform of financial supervision, and financial regulators will implement more comprehensive and stricter supervision on the banking from the perspectives of capital management, information disclosure, liquidity management, and so on.
［Key words］ U.S. banking; sub-prime mortgage crisis; structural adjustment; shadow bank; universal bank; financial supervision
中国区域金融结构差异研究
何晓夏 章 林
［摘 要］ 我国区域金融结构差异已经从各个层次表现出来，这些差异对实体经济增长、技术成长过程以及宏观调控政策的冲击产生不同的效果，从而成为区域经济不协调发展的重要原因。本文建立了系统评价区域金融结构的指标体系，并选取其中重要的指标比较了我国东、中、西部地区的金融结构差异，其结论是：我国区域金融结构在各个层面上都存在较大差异，东部地区的金融结构具有市场导向的程度已经远强于中、西部地区，基本向银行导向和市场导向并存的金融结构过渡；而中、西部地区的金融结构还处于银行功能和市场功能双弱的状态，基本不具备市场金融功能结构。
［关键词］ 金融结构；区域差异；银行导向型金融结构；市场导向型金融结构
［Abstract］ In China, regional financial structures have show significant disparities from various levels, which may bring different impacts on the growth of real economy, technology growth and macro-control policies, and become one of important reasons that result in unbalanced development among different regions. The paper establishes an indicator system to evaluate regional financial structure and compare the disparities of financial structures among Eastern China, Central China and Western China with several important indicators. The conclusions are as follows: there are significant disparities of financial structures among different regions in China; the market-based degree of financial structure in Eastern China has far surpassed that in Central and Western China, and the financial structure in Eastern China is gradually transiting towards a bank-based and market-based co-existence pattern; the financial structures in Central and Western China are weak in both bank function and market function, so they fail to possess market-based financial function.
［Key words］ financial structure; regional disparity; bank-based financial structure; market-based financial structure
商业银行并购风险的识别与防范研究
陶能虹
［摘 要］ 2008年以来的全球金融危机为有实力的中资银行实施并购提供了众多机会，但并购机遇与风险共存，并购风险管理对并购成败有重要影响。参照国际大型银行典型并购风险案例和着眼于商业银行并购全过程的分析表明，商业银行并购风险大致可分为宏观环境风险、并购对象风险、并购操作过程风险、并购整合风险4类，对应防范措施包括：通过深入分析并购环境、趋利避害来防范宏观环境风险；通过全面了解并购对象，综合权衡利弊来防范并购对象风险；通过规范和严格执行并购操作流程，防范并购操作风险；通过周密到位的准备，快速推进并购整合来防范整合风险。
［关键词］ 商业银行；并购；并购风险；风险识别与防范
［Abstract］ Since 2008, global financial crisis has provided many opportunities for competitive Chinese-funded banks. However, opportunities exist with risks in M&A, and M&A risk management significantly influence the result of M&A. Drawing the experience of M&A risk cases of large international banks and centering on the overall process of M&A among commercial banks, the paper divides commercial bank's M&A risks into 4 types, which are macro-environment risk, target risk, operational risk and integration risk. The main precautions are as follows: deeply analyzing M&A environment and seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages to circumvent macro-environment risk; comprehensively investigating M&A target and weighing the pros and cons to prevent target risk; normalizing and strictly following M&A process to circumvent operational risk; making thorough preparation and quickly furthering M&A integration to prevent integration risk.
［Key words］ commercial bank; M&A; M&A risk; risk identification and prevention
从发卡银行看银行卡欺诈法律风险的防控
中国工商银行法律事务部课题组
［摘 要］ 随着经济金融格局的变化和居民消费水平的提高，我国银行卡产业进入了高速发展期。与此同时，银行卡欺诈案件呈多发态势，欺诈手段亦不断翻新。银行卡欺诈案件的频频出现，反映出法律风险潜伏于银行卡业务经营管理的各个环节。法律风险的不断累积，使得商业银行在银行卡欺诈案件中易陷于被动局面，严重影响银行的利益与声誉，并威胁银行卡业务的健康发展。本文在对银行卡欺诈的法律风险进行深入分析的基础上，从法律文件的设计与制定、风险的提示与披露、证据的收集和保存等角度，对商业银行防范和化解银行卡欺诈的法律风险提出富有针对性的对策建议。
［关键词］ 银行卡；欺诈；法律风险；防范控制
［Abstract］ With the development of economy and finance and the improvement of residents' consumption level, China's bank card industry has entered a rapid expansion period. At the same time, more and more bank card fraud cases emerge with varieties of fraudulent means, which reflect that legal risk lies in each link of the bank card business. The accumulation of legal risk results in the disadvantage position of commercial banks in those cases, seriously affects the interests and reputation of banks and threats the healthy development of bank card business. On the basis of deeply analyzing the legal risk in bank card fraud, the paper proposes that commercial banks should take effective measures to comprehensively prevent and control legal risk, especially in the aspects of legal document design and draft, risk disclosure, evidence collection and documentation, and so on.
［Key words］ bank card; fraud; legal risk; prevention and control
试论金融创新的社会信用环境基础
洪 玫
［摘 要］ 在“美国次级抵押贷款危机”席卷全球的今天，越来越多的学者开始反思金融创新活动的负面性，并积极倡导规范金融创新工具的使用方式。本文以社会信用环境为视角，重点考察金融创新活动和社会信用环境两者之间的关系，并强调金融创新活动需要良好的社会信用环境加以规范。文章结合国际金融市场的背景特征和我国现实情况，就我国如何完善社会信用环境建设以规范金融创新活动提出了尽快搭建起规范社会信用环境的法律、法规和制度框架，在国家层面应该有一个统一的认识、规划和协调组织，以市场化的手段发展信用服务行业等有效规避信用风险的政策建议。
［关键词］ 美国次贷危机；金融危机；金融创新；信用环境；资产证券化
［Abstract］ Under the tide of U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis, more and more scholars begin to reflect over the negative effects of financial innovation and actively advocate regulating the use of financial innovation instruments. From the angle of social credit environment, the paper explores the relationship between financial innovation and social credit environment, and emphasizes that a nice social credit environment is required to regulate financial innovation. Combining the features of international financial market and the reality of Chinese financial market, the paper puts forward several suggestions to improve the social credit environment in China and regulate financial innovation, such as establishing the legal system centering on social credit environment as soon as possible, achieving uniform understanding, plan and coordination at the national level, and applying market-oriented approaches to develop credit service industry.
［Key words］ U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis; financial crisis; financial innovation; credit environment; asset securitazation
公允价值变动对中国上市公司影响的实证分析——从盈利和股价波动的视角进行
陈学彬 许敏敏
［摘 要］ 本文以中国2007~2009年资本市场的大起大落为研究背景，以存在公允价值变动的A股上市公司为研究对象，通过统计和面板数据分析公允价值变动损益对上市公司盈利波动以及股票价格的影响，试图对公允价值计量方法是否在金融危机中扮演了助涨助跌的角色给出一个经验性证据。研究发现，公允价值变动损益对上市公司盈利波动的确具有显著影响，并且投资者会对公允价值变动损益带来的公司盈利额外波动要求风险溢价。在上市公司交叉持股的情况下，这种盈利波动和股价变化具有助涨助跌的作用，会加速金融危机的传染。
［关键词］ 上市公司；公允价值；盈利波动；股价；固定效应模型
［Abstract］ With the background of the sharp increase and falling of Chinese capital market from 2007 to 2009, the paper makes a research about the impact of fair value accounting on Chinese A-share listed companies' earnings volatility and share prices to give some empirical evidence on the role of fair value accounting in the recent financial crisis. The results show that earnings became more volatile under fair value accounting, and investors require risk premium on the extra earnings volatility in which fair value accounting results. Especially when the phenomena of cross-shareholding among listed companies exist, such volatility of earnings and share prices would exacerbate the volatility of whole market and accelerate the contagion of financial crisis.
［Key words］ listed companies; fair value; earnings volatility; share price; Fixed Effect Model
试论新形势下商业银行的信贷风险防范 ——基于企业融资结构和企业税负的视角
张合金 贺潇颍
［摘 要］ 如何防范银行信贷风险，不仅要从宏观层面进行研究，还需要从微观基础进行考察。本文通过对我国当前银行信贷风险的构成特征、企业融资结构和企业税负的深入研究，认为我国银行信贷具有较高风险的一个重要原因是企业税收负担过重所引起的企业内部融资比例过低、负债率过高和对银行信贷的过度依赖。在当前的新形势下，要防范我国银行的信贷风险，政府需采取切实的措施较大幅度减轻企业税收负担，提高企业内部融资比例，减轻企业融资对银行信贷的过度依赖，从微观层面维护我国银行体系的稳定性。
［关键词］ 商业银行；信贷风险；融资结构；企业税负
［Abstract］ The study on how to prevent the credit risk faced by commercial banks need to be furthered from both macro-level and micro-basis. On the basis of deeply studying the component characteristics of credit risk, financing structure of enterprises, as well as their tax burden, the paper argues that one of essential reasons that lead to a high level of credit risk faced by Chinese banking is the status quo of low internal financing ratio, high asset-liability ratio and over-reliance on bank credit resulting from heavy tax burden faced by enterprises. In the current new situation, to prevent the credit risk of Chinese banking, the government should adopt feasible measures to substantially reduce the tax burden of enterprises, increase their internal financing ratio and mitigate their over-reliance on bank credit to maintain the stability of Chinese banking from the micro-level.
［Key words］ commercial bank; credit risk; financing structure; tax burden of enterprises
以市场为导向的商业银行动态预算管理机制研究
潘小明 李 杰
［摘 要］ 在金融市场化环境下，为有效解决市场波动与预算管理以市场为导向的需要之间的矛盾，商业银行迫切需要建立一个以市场为导向的动态预算管理机制。在对预算管理进行市场化和动态化设计时，首先，需要从协同的视角去正确认识超越预算与改进预算两大看似对立的主流观点；其次，需要加强对市场规律的把握和预测能力以减少预算松弛；第三，需要在公司治理结构下通过流程再造来确保动态预算调整的实施；最后，需要建立一个银行内部明确的职责分工体系，通过发挥比较优势以保证预算管理的效率。
［关键词］ 商业银行；超越预算；改进预算；市场预测；动态预算
［Abstract］ Under the background of financial marketization, to coordinate the contradiction between market volatility and demand for market-oriented budgeting, commercial banks are urgently required to establish a market-oriented and dynamic budgeting mechanism. In the process of designing such mechanism, first, commercial banks should correctly understand beyond budgeting and better budgeting, two seemingly contrary mainstream views, from the perspective of coordination.Second, commercial banks need to strengthen their abilities to grasp the laws of the market and forecast to reduce budgetary slack. Third, reengineering under the structure of corporate governance is the safeguard to implement dynamic budgeting adjustment. Last but not least, a definite system of division of work and individual responsibility in commercial banks is required, which contributes to exerting comparative advantages and ensuring the budgeting efficiency.
［Key words］ commercial bank; beyond budgeting; better budgeting; market forecast; dynamic budgeting
从美国次贷危机看资产证券化的基本功能
王 晓 李 佳
［摘 要］ 在本次次贷危机中，以住房抵押贷款证券化及其衍生品为主的资产证券化产品的基本功能在危机的产生和传导中发挥了不可估量的影响。本文深入讨论了资产证券化增大流动性功能和风险转移功能所带来的经济影响，并提出发展我国资产证券化应该首先选择表内模式，建立以监管特许权论为基础的信用评级机构，同时严格审查基础资产的信用与质量，加强对资产证券化发行者资产负债表的监管，创建适合我国国情的资产证券化法律框架以及防范同质性的系统性风险，以促使资产证券化这种金融创新产品更好地为我国的金融改革和发展服务。
［关键词］ 次贷危机；资产证券化；住房抵押贷款；增大流动性；风险转移
［Abstract］ In the sub-prime mortgage crisis, the basic functions of asset securitization products, represented by mortgage-backed securitization and its derivatives, have made immeasurable impacts on the crisis's emerge and transmission. The paper deeply discusses the economic influence of asset securitization in enlarging liquidity and transferring risks, the two basic functions of asset securitization, and proposes the suitable development pattern of asset securitization in China. First, on-balance-sheet pattern is more suitable for China to develop asset securitization in an initial stage. Second, credit rating agencies based on supervision permission system should be established, and the credit and quality of basic assets must be strictly examined. Third, the supervision on the balance sheets of asset securitization issuers should be strengthened. Fourth, related legal system fit for China should be established as soon as possible to effectively circumvent systematic risk. The above mentioned measures will promote asset securitization to service China's financial reform and development.
［Key words］ sub-prime mortgage crisis; asset securitization; mortgage; enlarge liquidity; risk transfer
网上银行业务顾客满意度及忠诚度问题研究
吴 炜 刘 琼 易 娜 常 诚
［摘 要］ 本文通过回顾关于顾客满意度和忠诚度的理论，着重说明了顾客满意度和忠诚度对于发展商业银行网上银行的重要性。作者在简要介绍商业银行网上银行业务发展，特别是中国工商银行网上银行概况的背景下，通过研究目的与调查类型、取样设计与数据采集方法、调查问卷设计、研究成果与讨论等4个步骤，针对实际调查结果进行描述性统计分析，总结出以下结论：国内商业银行应该以建立长期顾客关系，满足顾客需求、获得顾客忠诚为途径，抓住网上银行顾客数量与交易额都会大幅增长的前景契机，努力满足顾客需求、留住顾客，实现跨越式发展。
［关键词］ 工商银行；网上银行；顾客忠诚度；顾客满意度；ACSI；SERVOQUAL；问卷调查
［Abstract］ On the basis of reviewing the theories about customer satisfaction and loyalty, the paper expounds the significance of customer satisfaction and loyalty for the development of commercial bank's internet banking. The paper first briefly introduces the development of commercial bank's internet banking, especially the overview of ICBC internet banking. Through four procedures, which are study purpose and survey type, sampling design and approaches to collecting data, the design of questionnaire and study achievements and discussion, the paper analyzes the descriptive statistics of survey results, and achieves the following conclusions: establishing long-term customer relationship, satisfying customer demands and acquiring customer loyalty are basic approaches for commercial banks to developing internet banking. Commercial banks should grasp the chance that customer amount and trading volume are sharply increasing, try their best to satisfy customer demand and obtain customer loyalty to achieve great-leap-forward development.
［Key words］ ICBC; internet banking; customer loyalty; customer satisfaction; ACSI; SERVOQUAL; survey