中国富裕阶层金融行为研究——基于商业银行拓展财富管理业务的视角坛罐罐
王都富 (4)
A Study of the Financial Behavior of Chinese Rich Class——Based on the Perspective that Commercial Banks Expand Wealth Management Business
WANG Du-fu (4)
地方政府债务风险的衡量、分布与防范
中国工商银行投资银行部课题组 (14)
The Measure, Distribution and Prevention of Local Government Debt Risks
The Study Group of Investment Banking Department, ICBC (14)
次贷危机中资产证券化对金融市场流动性的影响
李 佳 王 晓 (25)
The Impacts of Asset Securitization on Financial Market Liquidity in Subprime Mortgage Crisis
LI Jia WANG Xiao (25)
资产证券化的信贷扩张效应——基于美国金融市场数据的分析
刘 玄 (31)
The Credit Expansion Effect of Asset Securitization——An Analysis Based on the U.S. Financial Market Data LIU Xuan (31)
银行监管对银行发展的影响
刘晓星 卢 菲 谢福座 (37)
The Impacts of Banking Supervision on Banking Development
LIU Xiao-xing LU Fei XIE Fu-zuo (37)
外资进入与中国商业银行的风险承担
何维达 于 一 (43)
Foreign Investment and Chinese Commercial Bank’s Risk-Taking
HE Wei-da YU Yi (43)
金融工具的风险计量、分类体系与公允价值
许志胜 (50)
The Risk Measurement, Classification System and Fair Value of Financial Instrument
XU Zhi-sheng (50)
中国大型商业银行精准营销管理机制研究
王文硕 (57)
A Study of the Management Mechanism of Chinese Large Commercial Bank’s Precision Marketing
WANG Wen-shuo (57)
商业银行业务运营风险的分级与分类管理
中国工商银行江西省分行课题组 (64)
The Grading and Classification Management of the Risks of Commercial Bank’s Business Operation
The Study Group of ICBC Jiangxi Branch (64)
感知风险和感知利益与消费者对网银业务的使用
曾宇容 马 雁 (70)
Perceived Risks，Perceived Benefits and Consumer’s Adoption of Internet Banking
ZENG Yu-rong MA Yan (70)
2005~2010年《金融论坛》载文统计分析
邢 苗 (76)
A Statistical Analysis of the Papers Published in “Finance Forum” from 2005 to 2010
XING Miao (76)
中国富裕阶层金融行为研究——基于商业银行拓展财富管理业务的视角
王都富
［摘 要］ 富裕阶层的快速成长是中国经济发展过程中的一个突出特点，对中国富裕阶层金融行为特征进行的理论解读及随机调查显示：中国富裕阶层更关注财富传承、生活品质与财富成长，理财知识匮乏、但投资自信心很强，投资倾向保守、但风险承受能力很强，倾向于选择商业银行作为理财机构，家庭互动是其理财决策的主要模式；对富裕阶层金融行为起主要影响作用的因素包括风险偏好、投资意识、金融服务以及投资信息等。中国商业银行拓展财富管理业务，既适逢难得历史机遇又面临多重潜在风险，大型商业银行应选择综合性银行模式，而战略合作模式是中小型商业银行的理性选择。
［关键词］ 富裕阶层；财富管理；金融行为；综合性银行模式；战略合作模式
［Abstract］ The rapid growth of the rich class is a prominent feature of the process of Chinese economic development. The theoretical interpretation and random survey of the behavior characteristics of Chinese rich class show that the rich class is more concerned about the inheritance and growth of the wealth, the quality of life, and lacks of financial knowledge, but it has strong investment confidence; its investment intention is conservative, but its capacity to bear risk is strong; it tends to choose commercial bank as wealth management institution, and family communication is the main mode of its financial decisions. The main factors that impact the financial behavior of the rich class are risk preference, investment motive, financial service and investment information, etc.. It is a rare historical opportunity for China’s commercial banks to expand wealth management business and meanwhile, they also face many potential risks. The large commercial bank should choose the model of integrated bank. The model of strategic cooperation is the rational choice of the small and medium sized commercial bank.
［Key words］ rich class; wealth management; financial behavior; integrated bank; mode of stategic cooperation
地方政府债务风险的衡量、分布与防范
中国工商银行投资银行部课题组
［摘 要］ 本文以负债率、债务率、利息支出率、担保债务比重四个指标为中国债务风险衡量的主要指标，结合指标测算和债务情况及收入水平进行考察，结果显示中国地方政府整体债务风险可控，在近几年间政府有能力偿还债务利息。但中国债务风险区域分布不均衡，防控重点是经济发展处于全国中等水平的省市，这些省市亟须举债而在风险控制上相对较弱，经济发展较弱的省份需要中央政府的担保举债，经济较为发达的省份基本可以负担本地融资。本文认为，保持宏观经济政策一致性，在债务清理、融资平台公司的处理上应分区域、公司区别对待，这样有利于降低地方政府债务风险。
［关键词］ 地方政府融资平台；政府债务；债务风险
［Abstract］ Based on the four ratios, ratio of debt to GDP, ratio of debt to fiscal revenue, ratio of interest expense to fiscal revenue and ratio of secured debt outstanding to fiscal revenue, as the indicators to measure the risks of Chinese local governments’debts, and combined with the estimates of the indicators, the levels of the debt and revenue, this paper inspects the risks of Chinese local governments’debts. The results show that the risks of Chinese local governments’debts are controllable and in the few years, the governments are capable of paying the interest on the debts, but the distribution of the risks is not balanced. The key regions of the prevention and control of the risks are the provinces that their economic development is at the medium level in the country. These provinces need borrowing money, but their abilities to control risks are relatively weak. The economically less developed provinces need central government’s guarantees to borrow money and the economically more developed provinces can afford the local financing on the whole. This paper argues that it will help reduce the risks of local government debts that macroeconomic policies are consistent, clearing debt and processing financing platform companies are treated differently according to different regions and different companies.
［Key words］ local government’s financing platform; government debt; debt risk
次贷危机中资产证券化对金融市场流动性的影响
李 佳 王 晓
［摘 要］ 次贷危机是一场金融市场流动性紧缩的危机。在流动性紧缩的过程中，连接多个利益主体的资产证券化负有很大责任。本文采用计量经济理论中的VAR模型对次贷危机中资产证券化对金融市场流动性的影响进行实证分析，发现在次贷危机的演进过程中，资产证券化确实对金融市场的流动性产生了持久的负面冲击效应，并导致了流动性紧缩的传导和扩散。因此，必须加强对资产证券化产品的监管，防止资产证券化运作中的委托—代理问题，加强信息披露，提高信用评级的有效性，同时应从风险识别、风险预警和风险对策三个方面来构建资产证券化的风险预警机制。
［关键词］ 次贷危机；资产证券化；金融市场；流动性
［Abstract］ The subprime mortgage crisis is a crunch crisis of the financial market liquidity. The asset securitization, connecting multiple benefit gainers, has a great responsibility for the process of liquidity crunch. By the VAR model of econometric theory, this paper empirically analyses the impacts of asset securitization on financial market liquidity in subprime mortgage crisis. The results show that the asset securitization indeed has lasting negative impacts on the liquidity of financial markets in the subprime mortgage crisis and leads to the conduction and diffusion of liquidity crunch. Therefore, it is necessary to supervise the asset securitization, prevent the principal-agent problem in the process of asset securitization, strengthen the information disclosure, improve the effectiveness of credit rating and meanwhile, to build the risk warning mechanism of asset securitization in three aeras, i.e. risk identification, risk warning and risk measures.
［Key words］ subprime mortgage crisis; asset securitization; financial market; liquidity
资产证券化的信贷扩张效应——基于美国金融市场数据的分析
刘 玄
［摘 要］ 增加流动性和监管资本套利是银行进行证券化的最主要动因，而这两者最终都会产生相同的结果，即通过出售资产扩大融资来源，使银行能在短期内更多地发放贷款。通过建立模型和运用美国金融市场数据分析证明，在资本金一定的情况下，长期内银行信贷扩张的关键是扩大银行体系之外的资金供给。资产证券化提供了打通间接融资和直接融资壁垒的工具，银行体系外的资金通过证券化产品可以输入信贷市场。国内银行面临资本充足率达标困难和资产负债期限错配的困境，而资产证券化及其信贷扩张效应为解决这类问题提供了对金融系统冲击较小、成本较低的方法。
［关键词］ 美国金融市场；资产证券化；信贷扩张；次贷危机
［Abstract］ The most important motives of bank’s asset securitization are increasing liquidity and regulating capital arbitrage, both of which will eventually produce the same results, that is, to expand financing sources through the sale of assets and to release more loans in the short term. Through the establishment of models and the use of U.S. financial market data, the analysis of the paper shows that, under the conditions of the determined amount of capital, the key that, in the long term, bank expands the credit is to expand the supply of funds outside the banking system. Asset securitization provides the tools to break down the barriers between the indirect financing and the direct financing and therefore the funds outside the banking system can enter the credit markets through the securitization products. The domestic banks are facing the difficulties of the capital adequacy ratio and the period mismatch between assets and liabilities. To overcome the difficulties, the asset securitization and its credit expansion effect can be the methods of lower-cost and smaller-impact on the financial system.
［Key words］ U.S. financial market; asset securitization; credit expansion; subprime mortgage crisis
银行监管对银行发展的影响
刘晓星 卢 菲 谢福座
［摘 要］ 本文以银行发展为因变量，银行监管系列措施为自变量，影响银行发展的其他重要因素为控制变量，构建了银行发展与银行监管的关系模型，利用数十个国家的数据实证检验了银行发展与银行监管的关系。结果表明：银行业外部治理和监管部门独立性均能够显著促进银行发展；资本监管和官方监管对银行发展的作用不明显，银行业务活动的过高限制不利于银行长期发展；政府监管的廉洁高效与金融行业的成熟、开放有利于促进一国银行业的发展；中国目前银行监管的有效性水平总体偏低，需要构建适应中国经济发展模式转型的审慎性银行监管制度。
［关键词］ 银行发展；银行监管；监管有效性；竞争力
［Abstract］ Banking development as dependent variable, measures of banking supervision as independent variables and other important factors affecting banking development as control variables, this paper builds the model of the relationship between banking development and banking supervision. Based on data of dozens of countries, the paper empirically tests the relationship. The results show that: the external governance and the independence of banking regulators can significantly promote banking development; the impacts of the capital supervision and official supervision on the banking development are not obvious; excessive restrictions on banking activity are not conducive to the long-term development of the banking; the government’s clean and efficient supervision and the maturity and openness of financial industry help promote the development of the country’s banking. Overall, the effectiveness of China’s current banking supervision is low and it is necessary to build a prudential banking supervision system that adapts to the transformation of the model of China’s economic development.
［Key words］ banking development; banking supervision; supervision effectiveness; competitiveness
外资进入与中国商业银行的风险承担
何维达 于 一
［摘 要］ 基于2000~2008年10家中国上市银行数据，本文引入了Z指数衡量中国商业银行风险承担，并对外资银行进入、外资参股与上市银行Z指数的关系进行实证研究。研究发现：外资银行进入与中国商业银行风险承担之间呈现U型的非线性关系，外资银行进入之初能够降低银行风险，当外资银行资产份额达到及超过1.94%的临界值后，导致风险增加；在现行参股比例约束下，引入境外战略投资者并没有显著提升银行治理水平，外资参股增加了中国商业银行风险。此外，高股权集中度会削弱治理机制作用，放大风险。
［关键词］ 商业银行；金融开放；外资进入；Z指数；破产风险
［Abstract］ Based on 10 Chinese listed banks’data from 2000 to 2008, this paper introduces Z index to measure the Chinese commercial bank’s risk-taking, and empirically examine the relationships between the foreign bank’s entry into China, the foreign bank’s shares and the listing bank’s Z index. The results show that: there is a non-linear, U-relationship between the foreign bank’s entry and the Chinese commercial bank’s risk-taking; at the beginning, the foreign bank’s entry can reduce the bank’s risks, while the share of the foreign bank’s assets is over the critical point of 1.94%, the entry increases risks; in the current constraints of equity ratio, the introduction of foreign strategic investors does not significantly improve the bank’s governace and the foreign equity increases the Chinese commercial bank’s risks. In addition, the high ownership concentration will weaken the role of governance mechanism and amplify the risks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; financial openness; foreign investment; Z index; bankruptcy risk
金融工具的风险计量、分类体系与公允价值
许志胜
［摘 要］ 金融工具会计准则过于复杂的原因之一在于金融工具本身具有丰富的风险内涵。现行金融工具会计体系是一种基于分类基础上的混合计量基础或计量属性体系，公允价值单维计量模式比现行的混和计量模式更简易，公允价值单维计量体系将是金融工具会计准则的长期目标。本研究表明，公允价值在应用层面并不会增加金融工具计量的复杂性，同时也契合全面风险管理的理念。在理论层面，应进一步加强公允价值的计量属性与要素、不确定到期日与自身信用风险的处理以及信息披露透明度等方面的研究。
［关键词］ 金融工具；风险计量；分类体系；公允价值
［Abstract］ One of the reasons that the accounting standard of financial instrument is overly complex is that the risks of financial instrument have rich contents. The existing accounting system of financial instrument is a mixed measurement base or measurement attribute system based on classification. The one-dimensional measurement mode of the fair value is simpler than the existing mixed measurement mode. The one-dimensional measurement system of fair value will be the long-term goal of the accounting standard of financial instrument. The study of this paper shows that the fair value does not increase the complexity of financial instrument measurement in application and meanwhile, it is consistent with the concept of comprehensive risk management. It is necessary to strengthen the theoretical study of the measurement attribute and elements of fair value, the treatment of the uncertain due date and the own credit risks, the transparency of information disclosure, etc..
［Key words］ financial instrument; risk measurement; classification system; fair value
中国大型商业银行精准营销管理机制研究
王文硕
［摘 要］ 国外商业银行的成功经验表明，完善的精准营销管理机制是商业银行常态化组织精准营销活动、实现持续盈利目标的保证。中国大型商业银行已开始组织精准营销活动的有益尝试，但缺位的管理制度、不完整的业务流程、不完善的信息系统等多方面问题制约了精准营销管理机制发挥效用。中国大型商业银行要借鉴国外商业银行成功的管理经验，结合市场经营环境和大型商业银行组织管理的特点，统筹文化制度、组织架构、业务流程、信息技术、渠道整合和产品管理等六方面要素，充分考虑与外部市场、监管机构的良好互动，保持精准营销管理机制的运转通畅。
［关键词］ 大型商业银行；精准营销；管理机制；客户关系管理系统
［Abstract］ The successful experience of foreign commercial banks shows that the perfect management mechanism of precision marketing is the gurantee that commercial banks do normalized precision marketing and achieve the objective of sustained profitability. Chinese large commercial banks have started to organize useful attempts to do precision marketing, but the absence of management systems, incomplete business process, imperfect information system and many other problems constrain the management mechanism to take effect. Chinese large commercial banks should learn the successful management experience from foreign commercial banks, combine market environment and large commercial banks’ features of organization and management, integrate six elements, i.e. cultural system, organizational structure, business process, information technology, channel integration, product management, pay full attention to the good interaction with the external market and regulators to maintain the smooth operation of the management mechanism of precision marketing.
［Key words］ large commercial bank; precision marketing; management mechanism; system of customer relationship management
商业银行业务运营风险的分级与分类管理
中国工商银行江西省分行课题组
［摘 要］ 业务运营风险具有内生性、复杂性、隐蔽性和关联性的明显特征，主要来源于内部程序、员工、科技信息系统和外部事件，大多数是在银行可控范围内的内生风险，但银行又无法保证因承担业务运营风险而获得收益。近年来，各商业银行日益重视业务运营风险，工商银行适时实施新监督体系改革，以“业务运营风险管理系统”为主要平台，配套以“风险事件分级分类管理”机制。实施风险事件分级分类管理，必须注重风险管理的科学性、有效性，形成较为成熟的理论体系，构建高效高质的运行机制，拥有强大的技术保障支撑，对不同的风险事件采取不同的控制措施。
［关键词］ 商业银行；运营风险；风险事件；分级分类管理；工行江西分行
［Abstract］ The risks of business operation have the obvious features of endogenous, complexity, hiding and relevance, mainly from internal process, staff, scientific and technological information system and external events. Most of the risks are endogenous and can be controlled by bank, but the bank can not guarantee to obtain earnings from business operation. In recent years, commercial banks are increasing emphasis on the risks of business operation. ICBC implements the timely reform of new monitoring system, takes the risk management system of business operation as the main platform, the grading and classification management mechanism of risk events as the endorsement. To implement the grading and classification management mechanism of risk events, it’s necessary to pay attention to scientific and effective risk management, build high-quality and efficient operational mechanism and strong technical support and take different risk measures for different risk events.
［Keywords］ commercial bank; operational risk; risk event; grading and classification management; ICBC Jiangxi Branch
感知风险和感知利益与消费者对网银业务的使用
曾宇容 马 雁
［摘 要］ 对于不同类型的网上银行业务，感知利益和感知风险对消费者使用意愿的影响不同。对于网上银行基本业务类型，感知风险中的时间风险对消费者使用意愿有大的影响，感知利益的影响也大；反之，对高级业务类型，感知风险中的社会风险对消费者使用意愿有大的影响，但感知利益的影响却小。基本风险包括网上银行服务器存在的风险和财务风险，对于未涉及金钱的网上银行业务类型，基本风险对消费者使用意愿影响不显著，而对于涉及金钱的业务类型，基本风险影响显著且较大。未涉及金钱的人们不需要考虑金钱的损失，所以影响不大。
［关键词］ 网上银行；银行业务；感知风险；感知利益
［Abstract］ For different types of internet banking service, the impacts of perceived benefits and perceived risks on the consumer’s willingness to adopt are different. For the basic type of internet banking service, the time risk in the perceived risks has a great impact on consumer’s willingness to adopt, and so do the perceived benefits. On the contrary, for the high class type of internet banking service, the social risk in the perceived risks has a great impact on consumer’s willingness to adopt, but the impact of perceived benefits is little. For the types of business that do not involve money, the impacts of basic risks, including the risks of internet banking servers and the financial risks, are not great, but for the types that involve money, the impacts of basic risks are significant and great. People who do not involve money are not worried about the loss of money, so the impacts are not great.
［Key words］ internet banking; banking business; perceived risks; perceived benefits
2005~2010年《金融论坛》载文统计分析
邢 苗
［摘 要］ 作者对《金融论坛》2005~2010 年共计761篇载文进行了定量研究，通过对载文的研究内容、研究方法、基金项目、作者所属地域、作者所在单位、合著情况、参考文献及被引频次等方面的统计分析发现：信贷业务及其风险管理是历年来《金融论坛》商业银行应用理论研究的重点；从研究方法来看，载文研究采用的方法以非数字化的定性研究为主，但定量研究的比重基本呈现上升态势；来自各省、市的载文数量与该地区的经济和金融发展水平有明显的正相关关系；工商银行与高校和科研院所是该杂志商业银行应用理论研究的主力，来自其他商业银行的载文比重偏低。
［关键词］ 《金融论坛》；载文统计；商业银行应用理论
［Abstract］ This article is a quantitative study of a total of 761 papers published in“Finance Forum” from 2005 to 2010. Based on the statistical analysis of the contents, research method, financing fund, author’s region and institute, co-author, references and cited frequency of the papers published in “Finance Forum”, the author of the article finds that the credit and risk management are the reaearch focus of the commercial bank applied theory of “Finance Forum”. As the method, the qualitative, non-quantitative study is dominated on the whole, but the trend of the proportion of quantitative is upward. There is a significant positive correlation between the number of papers of the province and the province’s economic and financial development. ICBC, universities and research institutes are the main source of the author and the proportion of the papers from other commercial banks is low.
［Key words］ Finance Forum; statistical analysis of published papers; applied theory of commercial bank