我国碳交易市场发展的制约因素及路径选择
张健华 (3)
The Restraints and Path Choice of the Development of Chinese Carbon Market
ZHANG Jian-hua (3)
清洁发展机制下核证减排量的定价分析
杨胜刚 成程 (8)
Pricing Analysis of Certified Emission Reductions under Clean Development Mechanism
YANG Sheng-gang CHENG Cheng (8)
当前中国通货膨胀的成因和对策
陈学彬 周光友 徐明东 (18)
The Causes of the Current Inflation in China and the Solutions
CHEN Xue-bin ZHOU Guang-you XU Ming-dong (18)
资产价格波动对商业银行风险的影响——基于银行收入结构视角的研究
张庆君 张荔 (25)
The Impacts of Asset Price Fluctuation on the Risks of Commercial Banks——A Study Based on the Perspective of Bank’s Income Structure
ZHANG Qing-jun ZHANG Li (25)
贷款行为、盈余管理与贷款损失准备的动态调整
段军山 邹新月 周伟卫 (31)
Loan Behavior, Earnings Management and Dynamic Adjustment of Loan Loss Provision
DUAN Jun-shan ZOU Xin-yue ZHOU Wei-wei (31)
中国商业银行海外并购的动因、机遇与战略
刘明坤 (37)
Motives, Opportunities and Strategies of Chinese Commercial Banks’ Overseas M & A
LIU Ming-kun (37)
中国商业银行的经营绩效——基于14家上市银行2009年数据的分析
胡兆峰 王汀汀 王士洋 (43)
Operating Performance of China’s Commercial Banks——An Analysis Based on 14 Listed Banks’Data in 2009
HU Zhao-feng WANG Ting-ting WANG Shi-yang (43)
中国电子商业汇票发展的现状、问题与对策
肖小和 汪办兴 (48)
Status, Problems and Solutions of the Development of China’s Electronic Commerce Bill
XIAO Xiao-he WANG Ban-xing (48)
国有商业银行人力资源的优化配置
高亮 熊俭 游小华 (54)
Optimal Human Resource Allocation of State-Owned Commercial Banks
GAO Liang XIONG Jian YOU Xiao-hua (54)
商业银行业务运营的可持续发展——基于对中国工商银行上海市分行的研究
沈怡 (61)
Sustainable Development of Business Operation of Commercial Banks —— A Study Based on ICBC Shanghai Branch
SHEN Yi (61)
银行网站开展企业电子商务服务的模式与战略
马铁军 黄小锋 (68)
The Mode and Strategy of Bank Website to Provide Enterprise E-commerce Service
MA Tie-jun HUANG Xiao-feng (68)
《金融论坛》载文被引用情况的统计分析
邢 苗 冯伟民 (75)
Statistical Analysis of the Citation of Papers Published in FINANCE FORUM
XING Miao FENG Wei-min (75)
我国碳交易市场发展的制约因素及路径选择*
张健华
［摘 要］ 面对日益增大的减排压力，中国作为发展中减排大国，建立碳交易市场势在必行。目前，中国发展碳交易市场存在金融参与不足，减排区域分割特性明显，在国际碳交易市场中缺乏定价权，中介服务能力欠缺和制度不规范等制约因素。借鉴发达国家碳交易市场的发展经验，本文提出了如下发展中国碳交易市场的路径：首先，设定碳排放权限额，确保碳排放权的非公共物品化；其次，依托现有排污权交易市场开展碳排放权交易，建立碳排权现货与期货市场；第三，明确政府定位，完善碳交易市场监督与管理。
［关键词］ 碳交易市场；清洁发展机制；碳排放权；非公共物品化
［Abstract］ Under the increasing pressure from carbon emission reduction, it is imperative for China, a large developing country with enormous volume of carbon emission reduction, to establish carbon market mechanism. For now, there are many factors restraining the development of Chinese carbon market, such as insufficient participation of financial institutions, region-dependent segmentation in emission reduction activities, lack of pricing power in global carbon market, weak service ability of intermediary agents and imperfect rules and regulations. Drawing reference from carbon market in developed countries, the paper puts forward the pathway to develop Chinese carbon market as follows. The first step is to set the cap, which will make the carbon emission right valuable non-public goods. The second step is to establish spot and futures market for carbon emission right based on present pollution-discharge right trade. Last but not least, we should pay attention to proper orientation of the government and improve supervision and management in carbon market.
［Key words］ carbon market; clean development mechanism; carbon emission right; non-public goods
清洁发展机制下核证减排量的定价分析
杨胜刚 成程
［摘 要］ 本文考察了中国清洁发展机制一级市场上核证减排量（pCER）的定价机制，运用VECM模型分析了碳排放配额（EUA）与二级市场上核证减排量（sCER）的关系，运用NW OLS多元回归模型分析了影响sCER价格的因素。研究结果表明，pCER的价格由发达国家的投资者主导，买卖双方的风险与收益不匹配；二级市场上sCER的价格与EUA呈现出联动效应，并受到能源价格、经济波动、市场结构变化、政策调整等因素的影响。商业银行作为碳融资的主要渠道，在向低碳项目直接贷款时应分析项目的发展潜力，加大以碳交易为核心的金融衍生产品的创新力度。
［关键词］ 清洁发展机制；一级市场核证减排量；二级市场核证减排量；碳排放配额
［Abstract］ This article explores the pricing mechanism of certified emission reductions in primary market of CDM（pCER）, utilizes VECM model to analyze the relationship between EUA and certified emission reductions in secondary market of CDM （sCER）, and uses NW OLS multiple regression model to analyze the factors of sCER prices. The results show that pCER prices are dominated by investors from developed countries, and the risks and earnings between buyers and sellers dismatch. The prices of sCER fluctuate with EUA and are affected by many other factors as well, such as energy prices, economic fluctuation, market structure change and policy adjustment. As the main channel of carbon financing, commercial banks should analyze the development potential of low-carbon projects when providing loans to them and accelerate to innovate derivatives centering on carbon trade.
［Key words］ clean development mechanism; certified emission reductions in primary market of CDM（pCER）; certified emission reductions in secondary market of CDM (sCER); EUA
当前中国通货膨胀的成因和对策
陈学彬 周光友 徐明东
［摘 要］ 当前中国通货膨胀形成的原因包括需求拉动、自然灾害、通胀预期、市场投机等短期因素和增长方式转变、经济结构调整、自然资源有限性、要素价格重估、成本推动等长期因素。本文认为适度通胀有利于当前经济结构调整和经济发展方式转变。当前宏观调控效果初步显现，短期还应继续实行适度紧缩政策，但紧缩力度需逐步降低；应参考一篮子货币，保持人民币名义有效汇率的基本稳定，实际有效汇率适度升值；应继续深化金融体制改革，完善货币调控机制；应保障农业生产，稳定供给和实现农民持续增收；同时还应严厉打击哄抬物价、投机炒作行为。
［关键词］ 通货膨胀；经济结构调整；流动性过剩；货币政策
［Abstract］ Many short-term and long-term factors contribute to the current inflation in China. The former include demand pulling, natural disasters, inflation expectation and market speculation, and the later include the transformation of the pattern of economic growth, economic restructuring, limited natural resources, factor price revaluation and cost push. The paper argues that moderate inflation is acceptable and helpful to economic restructuring and the transformation of the pattern of economic development. The effect of macro-control preliminarily appeares, and moderately tightening monetary policy should continue with gradually weakening force. The mechanism for setting RMB exchange rates should be further improved with reference to a basket of currencies to maintain nominal effective exchange rate of RMB basically stable and achieve moderate appreciation of real effective exchange rate. We should continue to deepen the reform of financial system and improve the mechanism of monetary control. We should safeguard agricultural production to stabilize agricultural supply and ensure sustaining increase of peasants’ income. At the same time, stringent measures should be taken to crack down on illegal actions of driving up prices and speculating.
［Key words］ inflation; economic restructuring; liquidity surplus; monetary policy
资产价格波动对商业银行风险的影响——基于银行收入结构视角的研究
张庆君 张荔
［摘 要］ 本文以中国14家商业银行2000～2009年的数据为样本，在测度中国银行业体系风险性指数的基础上，考察资产价格波动对银行收入结构及银行体系风险的影响。研究结果表明：中国银行业纷纷通过上市融资的方式来改善自己的资本资产结构，收益和资产状况得到了较大改善，银行体系稳定性明显增强；资产价格波动与非利息收入结构有明显的正相关关系，而跟利息收入结构有显著的负相关关系，非利息收入更容易受到资产价格波动的影响；资产价格波动与银行体系风险指数之间存在显著的相关性关系，而且弹性系数明显高于资产价格与收入结构之间的弹性系数。
［关键词］ 资产价格波动；银行收入结构；银行体系风险
［Abstract］ This paper takes 14 Chinese commercial banks’ data from 2000 to 2009 as samples and , on the basis of measuring the risk index of Chinese banking system, studies the impacts of asset price fluctuation on banks’ income structure and the risks of banking system. The results show that: China’s banks have improved their structure of capitals and assets through financing in stock market, their income and assets have been greatly improved, and the stability of the banking system has been significantly enhanced; asset price fluctuation has a positive correlation with the structure of non-interest income and a significant negative correlation with the structure of interest income; non-interest income is more vulnerable to asset price fluctuation; asset price fluctuation has a significant correlation with the risk index of banking system, and the elasticity between asset price fluctuation and the risk index is significantly higher than that between asset price and income structure.
［Key words］ asset price fluctuation; bank’s income structure; risks of banking system
贷款行为、盈余管理与贷款损失准备的动态调整
段军山 邹新月 周伟卫
［摘 要］ 本文利用面板VAR模型及2004~2009年9家上市商业银行的数据，研究银行贷款损失准备计提与银行贷款行为、盈余管理策略的动态调整。研究发现，从中国代表性上市商业银行的经验证据来看，贷款损失准备的计提与净利润率之间存在显著的负相关关系；贷款损失准备计提影响了商业银行的贷款能力和商业银行的盈利水平，这证实了盈余管理行为的存在；充分计提贷款损失准备的商业银行其风险管控能力更强，从而阻碍不良贷款率的提高，但商业银行贷款损失计提对不良贷款率的提高不敏感，这可能与商业银行计提不规范和监管部门的监管水平不高有关。
［关键词］ 商业银行；贷款行为；盈余管理；贷款损失准备；面板VAR模型
［Abstract］ With panel VAR model and 9 listed commercial banks’ data from 2004 to 2009, this paper studies the loan behavior, earnings management and the dynamic adjustment of loan loss provisions. The results show that, according to Chinese listed commercial banks’ representative empirical evidences, there is a significant negative correlation between loan loss provision and net profit margin;loan loss provision impacts commercial bank’s lending capacity and profitability, which confirms the existence of earnings management; commercial banks with full loan loss provision have greater risk control capability, which thereby hinders the increase of non-performing loan ratio; but loan loss provision is not responsive to the increase of non-performing loan ratio, which may be related to irregular provision of commercial bank and low supervision level of supervision department.
［Key words］ commercial bank; loan behavior; earnings management; loan loss; panel VAR model
中国商业银行海外并购的动因、机遇与战略
刘明坤
［摘 要］ 从国际银行业的发展经验来看，海外并购作为扩大银行规模和开拓国际市场的重要方式，是现代商业银行提升综合化和国际化水平的有效手段。本文分析了商业银行进行海外并购的动因，总结了国内代表性银行（工商银行）海外并购的经验，提出商业银行海外并购的5项基本原则：一是要正确处理海外并购与机构申设的关系；二是并购目标选择要以契合并购者的整体战略为前提；三是并购区域选取以跟随客户、追求成长、关注安全和梯次扩展为原则；四是并购基础建设要注重并购风险控制；五是并购后续整合要以企业文化和管理模式融合为重点。
［关键词］ 商业银行；工商银行；跨国经营；并购战略
［Abstract］ According to the development experience of international banking, overseas merger and acquisition (M & A), as an important way to expand scale and develop international market, is effective means for modern commercial banks to improve their integration and international levels. This paper analyzes the motives of commercial bank’s overseas M & A, summarizes overseas M & A experience of ICBC, a representative domestic bank, and proposes five basic principles of overseas M & A: first, commercial banks should correctly handle the relationship between overseas M & A and establishing institution; second, the selection of M & A target should be based on the premise that the target fits acquirer’s overall strategy; third, the principles of region selection are following customers, pursuing growth, paying attention to security and guadually expanding; fourth, commercial banks should attach importance to the control of M & A risks when they prepare the basis for M & A; fifth, the integration after M & A should be focused on the merger of corporate culture and management.
［Key words］ commercial bank; ICBC; multinational operation; M & A strategy
中国商业银行的经营绩效——基于14家上市银行2009年数据的分析
胡兆峰 王汀汀 王士洋
［摘 要］ 本文以中国14家上市商业银行2009年公告数据为基础，以净资产收益率等8个主要财务指标构建盈利因子、偿债因子和可持续发展因子，利用各因子的解释能力计算中国上市商业银行的综合绩效得分。评价结果显示，以南京银行、浦发银行和北京银行为代表的股份制商业银行的经营绩效高于大型国有银行，在赢利能力和可持续发展能力方面，两类银行的差距较为显著。但大型国有银行仍然具有独特的核心竞争力，如庞大的客户资源、广泛的分支网络、稳健的经营战略、隐性的国家信用支持等，从长远角度看，大型国有银行的可持续发展能力与股份制银行并没有显著差异。
［关键词］ 商业银行；上市公司；经营绩效；盈利能力
［Abstract］ Based on Chinese 14 listed commercial banks’ announced data in 2009, this paper sets profitability factors, debt factors and sustainable development factors with ROE and other 7 major financial indicators, and utilizes the explanatory power of each factor to calculate Chinese listed commercial banks’ comprehensive performance score. Evaluation results show that the operating performance of joint-stock commercial banks, represented by Bank of Nanjing, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Bank of Beijing, is better than that of large state-owned banks and the difference in profitability and sustainable development between the two kinds of banks is remarkable. However, large state-owned banks still have their unique core competencies, such as large customer resources, extensive branch networks, prudent business strategy, implicit national credit support, etc. From the long-term perspective, there is no significant difference in sustainable development capacity between large state-owned banks and joint-stock banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; listed company; operating performance; profitability
中国电子商业汇票发展的现状、问题与对策
肖小和 汪办兴
［摘 要］ 人民银行电子商业汇票系统建成应用已届满一年，中国电子票据市场呈现较好的起步发展态势并在部分地区步入良性发展，主要商业银行积极推动电子票据业务开展，电子票据成为解决中小企业融资难和推动中小金融机构加快发展的重要力量。实践中，电子票据市场运行还存在法律制度不健全、业务发展不均衡、电子票据的客户范围和流通性存在局限、电子票据交易利率不尽合理等问题。中国应通过完善电子票据法律制度、改进ECDS系统的功能应用、加大政策引导和扶持、促进市场繁荣、完善电子票据交易利率定价机制等措施推动电子票据业务加快发展。
［关键词］ 电子票据；电子商业汇票系统；票据业务；商业银行
［Abstract］ The electronic commerce bill system of the People’s Bank of China has been completed and put into use more than one year. China’s electronic commerce bill market presents a good development trend and is in healthy development in some areas. Main commercial banks actively carry out the business of electronic bill, which has been an important instrument to overcome the difficulty of SME financing and promote the rapid development of small and medium sized financial institutions. In practice, there are still problems in electronic bill market, such as unsound legal system, unbalanced business development, the limitation in customer scope and liquidity of electronic bill, unreasonable interest rate of electronic bill trading and so forth. To accelerate the development of electronic bill business, China should take measures to improve legal system, innovate the application function of ECDS system, provide policy guidance and support, improve the pricing mechanism of the interest rate of electronic bill trading and so on.
［Key words］ electronic commerce bill system; bill business; commercial bank
国有商业银行人力资源的优化配置
高亮 熊俭 游小华
［摘 要］ 目前国有商业银行人力资源配置存在目标模糊等问题，因此要按照战略性人力资源管理要求，摒弃传统人事管理的影响，进行人力资源规划、配置、开发和管理，进行以适应战略发展需要的人力资源配置优化调整。具体包括以下内容：按照企业发展战略调整优化人力资源配置结构，按照分类管理原则重点配置优质人力资源，坚持价值导向对关键岗位优先配置人力资源；适应国有商业银行发展战略需要，强化前台营销功能和市场拓展力量，加强客户经理的配置工作力度；适应人力资源配置工作需要，强化培训、考核等人力资源管理职能目标政策的一致性和协调性。
［关键词］ 国有商业银行；工商银行；发展战略；人力资源；优化配置
［Abstract］ There are many problems in human resource（HR） allocation of state-owned commercial banks at present, such as problematic preferences. According to the requirements of strategic HR management, banks need to discard the influence of traditional HR managment, fulfill comprehensive HR planning, allocation, development and management, and optimize HR allocation to fit for the demand of strategic development. The detailed contents are as follows: adjusting HR allocation structure conforming to development strategy, emphasizing superior HR allocation according to classification management principle, and insisting value orientation to give priority to key positions’ HR demands; strengthening the marketing function of foreground and market expansion ability, and improving the HR allocation of customer managers to meet the needs of bank’s development strategy; emphasizing the consistency and coordination of target policy in HR management function, such as training and appraisal, to suit the needs of HR allocation.
［Key words］ state-owned commercial bank; ICBC; development strategy; human resource; optimal allocation
商业银行业务运营的可持续发展——基于对中国工商银行上海市分行的研究
沈怡
［摘 要］ 商业银行的整体经营运作可以简要概括为业务运营，主要涵盖了运营模式、运营系统、运营风险、运营管理等多个方面，是商业银行发展的主动脉。在网点分散的资源布局限制下，越来越多的商业银行感受到来自于市场的巨大压力，纷纷启动对资源集约配置的系统研究并积极试点，逐渐总结出融合流程精简设计、资源优化配置、经营持续转型的业务运营模式。本文认为，在未来，商业银行业务将彻底跳出金融企业的固有网点布局，通过以后台共享服务中心为主体，以流程创新为路径，以集约经营为目标的商业银行业务运营模式，主动实现经营战略的全面转型。
［关键词］ 商业银行；业务运营；可持续发展；工行上海市分行
［Abstract］ The overall operation of a commercial bank can be briefly summarized as business operation, mainly covering operation mode, operation system, operation risk, operation management and other aspects, and it is the main development line of commercial banks. Confined by distribution network resources, more and more commercial banks have felt the pressure from market and have launched systematic study and pilot of intensive allocation of resources. The banks gradually form the business operation mode that involves simplified design of process, optimal allocation of resources and continuous transformation of operation. This paper argues that, in the future, commercial bank will completely change the existing network layout and build the business model, shared service center as main body, process innovation as path, intensive operation as target, to achieve comprehensive trasformation of operation strategy.
［Key words］ commercial bank; business operation; sustainable development; ICBC Shanghai Branch
银行网站开展企业电子商务服务的模式与战略
马铁军 黄小锋
［摘 要］雄厚的基础、强大的品牌、良好的信用、先进的系统和丰富的增值服务决定了大型商业银行网站开展企业电子商务服务具有较大优势，而信息服务与支付服务无缝链接、配套专业金融服务的全流程型B2B服务本身也具有强大竞争力。银行网站开展全流程型B2B服务面临着资产负债及中间业务的全新机遇，承受的风险也在可控范围内。大型商业银行网站针对企业开展电子商务服务，只要其制定合理的市场战略，开发创新型产品，提供特色服务，稳步推进品牌建设，逐步建立科学高效的管理体系，就能够在B2B服务市场获得较好的发展。
［关键词］ 商业银行；企业电子商务；全流程型B2B服务；中间业务；资产负债业务
［Abstract］ Large commercial banks possess significant advantages, such as solid foundation, strong brand, good credit, advanced system and abundant value-added service, in providing E-commerce service via their websites. Moreover, banks can enjoy strong competitiveness from the seamless linking between information service and payment service and from the whole-process B2B service based on professional financial service. Whole-process B2B service via bank website provides commercial banks with new opportunities in asset-liability and intermediary business, and related risk is tolerable. Large commercial banks can develop very well in B2B service market by formulating rational market strategy, developing innovative products, providing special service, steadily promoting brand construction and gradually establishing scientific and highly efficient management system.
［Key words］ commercial bank; enterprise E-commerce; whole-process B2B service; intermediary business; asset-liability business
《金融论坛》载文被引用情况的统计分析
邢苗 冯伟民
［摘 要］ 本文对《金融论坛》2005～2009年的624篇学术性载文进行了统计分析。通过对《金融论坛》载文被CSSCI来源期刊引用的情况、引用期刊的情况、高频被引载文、高频被引作者、基金资助载文以及载文被人大“复印报刊资料”全文转载情况的定量统计，分析其在金融研究领域的学术地位和影响力。分析表明：《金融论坛》的他引比率较高且基本保持稳定，自引率基本呈现稳定态势，且高频被引载文关注的都是金融领域的热点问题和我国商业银行经营中的薄弱环节；《金融论坛》在我国金融研究领域具有重要地位和学术影响力，是我国金融研究领域的重要学术性刊物。
［关键词］ 《金融论坛》；金融研究；CSSCI；学术影响力
［Abstract］ The article carries out a statistical analysis of 624 published academic papers of FINANCE FORUM from 2005 to 2009. On the basis of the statistical analysis of cited papers by CSSCI source journals, citing journals, the papers and authors with high citation frequency, papers with financing fund and the papers republished by INFORMATION CENTER FOR SOCIAL SCIENCES, RUC, the paper analyzes the academic position and influence of FINANCE FORUM in Chinese financial research field. FINANCE FORUM has a high and stable citation rate of papers published by other journals, and its citation rate of other papers in FINANCE FORUM is basically stable. Papers with high citation frequency usually center on hot issues in financial sector or weak links in the operation of Chinese commercial banks. FINANCE FORUM is an important academic journal in Chinese financial research field, with significant academic influence.
［Key words］ FINANCE FORUM; financial research; CSSCI; academic influence