最优银行集中度之谜
陈雨露 马 勇 (4)
The Myth of the Optimal Bank Concentration
CHEN Yu-lu MA Yong (4)
中国居民资产配置趋势及商业银行对策
樊志刚 王小娥 (16)
The Trend of Asset Allocation of Chinese Residents and the Counter-Measures of Commercial Banks
FAN Zhi-gang WANG Xiao-e (16)
2011年全球经济与市场回顾和2012年展望
邹 新 辛 华 海苑苑 (24)
The 2011 Review of Global Economy and Markets and the 2012 Outlook
ZOU Xin XIN Hua HAI Yuan-yuan (24)
中国银行业环境信息披露水平及其影响因素——基于16家上市银行的实证分析
杨肃昌 万湘媛 (33)
The Level of Environmental Information Disclosure of China’s Banking and Its Influencing Factors ——An Empirical Study Based on 16 Listed Banks
YANG Su-chang WAN Xiang-yuan (33)
财务特征、股权结构与上市银行现金股利政策
陈立泰 梁 乐 林 川 (42)
Financial Characteristics, Ownership Structure and the Cash Dividend Policy of China’s Listed Banks
CHEN Li-tai LIANG Le LIN Chuan (42)
银行利润最大化、效率与ROA
陈 凯 赵晓菊 (48)
Profit Maximization, Efficiency and ROA of Banks
CHEN Kai ZHAO Xiao-ju (48)
商业银行海外投资布局的影响因素
许 南 黄 颖 涂梦云 (54)
Factors to Affect Overseas Investment Layout of Commercial Banks
XU Nan HUANG Ying TU Meng-yun (54)
中国上市银行法律风险案件披露的市场反应
陆 静 马 杨 (60)
Market Reactions to the Disclosure of Legal Risk Cases of Chinese Listed Banks
LU Jing MA Yang (60)
现代商业银行绩效评价框架——基于价值理论与多维视角的分析
陈全兴 王晓娜 (67)
The Performance Evaluation Framework of Modern Commercial Banks——An Analysis Based on the Theory of Value and Multi-Dimension Perspectives
CHEN Quan-xing WANG Xiao-na (67)
基于RFM模型的个人客户忠诚度研究
王文贤 金 阳 陈道斌 (75)
A Study of Personal Customer Loyalty Based on RFM Model
WANG Wen-xian JIN Yang CHEN Dao-bin (75)
最优银行集中度之谜
陈雨露 马 勇
［摘 要］ 本文通过对89组跨国数据的实证分析，系统研究了银行集中度和银行体系稳定性之间的关系。实证结果表明，银行集中度和银行稳定性之间的关系并不是过往文献所集中讨论的简单线性关系，而是存在一个最优的银行集中度区间（0.6，0.8］，这一区间恰好位于样本均值附近，并向样本均值收敛；而当一国的银行集中度水平处于（0.8，0.9］时，银行体系的稳定性最低，极易发生银行危机。进一步的分析表明，在最优的银行集中度区间内，银行业的产业结构能较好地在适度竞争和盈利之间获得平衡，而隐藏在“最优银行集中度之谜”背后的机制极有可能是“优胜劣汰”这一自然法则在社会经济领域的再现。
［关键词］ 最优银行集中度；金融稳定；银行危机；自然法则
［Abstract］ Based on 89 groups of cross-country data, this paper empirically studies the relationship between bank concentration and banking stability. The results show that the relationship between bank concentration and banking stability is not simply linear correlation indicated by most former researches. On the contrary, there exists an optimal bank concentration interval,（0.6，0.8］, which clusters around and converges to the sample mean; when the bank concentration falls in the interval of（0.8，0.9］, the banking system has the worst stability and banking crisis easily breaks out. The further analysis reveals that in the optimal bank concentration interval, the banking industry structure can achieve the best balance between proper competition and profitability, which leads us to conjecture that the mechanism behind the“myth of optimal bank concentration” may be the representation of the natural principle of “survival of the fittest” in the social and economic area.
［Key words］ optimal bank concentration; financial stability; banking crisis; natural rule
中国居民资产配置趋势及商业银行对策
樊志刚 王小娥
［摘 要］ 从近年来中国居民金融资产变化情况来看，在金融资产总量急剧增加的同时，资产结构也由原来单一的银行资产向多元化方向发展，但储蓄存款仍居主导地位，人均居民金融资产水平也较低。后危机时期居民金融资产总量增长空间仍然较大，资产多元化趋势将更加明显，这意味着储蓄存款将持续减少，而证券、基金、保险、信托、银行理财产品等新型金融产品的投资将日益扩大，居民资产配置以储蓄为主的格局仍将持续较长时间。这为商业银行发展带来两个机遇：一是为商业银行实现经营转型带来了发展机遇；二是为商业银行个人资产管理业务带来了发展机遇。
［关键词］ 居民资产；资产配置；商业银行；个金业务
［Abstract］ The change of the structure of financial assets held by Chinese residents shows the following characteristics: along with the sharp increase of total financial assets, asset structure shifts from originally single banking assets to diversified ones; savings deposit occupies the dominant position, and per capita financial assets is still low. During the post-crisis era, the total financial assets of residents possess huge increase potential, and the diversification trend of asset structure will be more obvious. Under such trend, savings deposit will continuously decline, investment in new financial products, such as security, funds, insurance, trust and wealth management products provided by banks, will increasingly expand, and the dominance of savings in residents’ asset allocation will persist in the long run. Such development trend of asset allocation of Chinese residents will provide scarce chance for commercial banks in both business transformation and personal asset management business.
［Key words］ resident assets; asset allocation; commercial bank; personal banking
2011年全球经济与市场回顾和2012年展望
邹 新 辛 华 海苑苑
［摘 要］ 2011年，受欧洲主权债务危机不断蔓延的影响，发达国家经济复苏缓慢并呈现逐步分化趋势，新兴市场国家作为全球经济复苏主引擎的作用仍然突出，但也面临着经济增长趋缓的困扰。2012年，由于欧债危机隐患未除、全球金融系统依然脆弱以及发达国家自身结构性问题远未解决，全球经济方向将面临较大不确定性。未来新兴市场经济体有望继续充当全球经济复苏的主要动力，但增速将趋于放缓。发达经济体将维持宽松的货币政策，并将迫于财政赤字压力采取财政紧缩措施，而新兴经济体预计将实施相对稳健的货币政策与较为宽松的财政政策，以应对通货膨胀和经济增速趋缓的双重压力。
［关键词］ 全球经济；全球金融；欧洲主权债务；新兴市场
［Abstract］ In 2011, the economic recovery of developed countries, suffering from the spillover effects of European sovereign debt crisis, was slow and gradually divergent across different countries. The emerging markets are still the engines of global economic recovery, but meanwhile, they also face the trouble of slowdown in economic growth. In 2012, because the European debt crisis does not mitigate, the global financial system is still vulnerable and the structural problems of developed countries remain unresolved, the outlook of the global economic recovery is full of uncertainty. The emerging markets are expected to continue to be the main driving force of global economic recovery, but their growth will tend to slow down. The monetary policies of developed economies will keep loose and their fiscal policies will tighten under the pressure of huge deficits. The emerging markets will implement moderately sound monetary policy and relatively loose fiscal policy to eliminate the double pressure of rise in inflation and slowdown in economic growth.
［Key words］ global economy; global finance; European sovereign debt; emerging markets
中国银行业环境信息披露水平及其影响因素——基于16家上市银行的实证分析
杨肃昌 万湘媛
［摘 要］ 本文从环境报告的可信度、广泛度、客观度、重视度、表现度、便捷度六个方面衡量了银行业环境信息披露水平，并在此基础上重点对环境信息披露指数与银行盈利能力、规模、财务杠杆、实际控股人属性之间的关联度进行了实证检验。研究结果表明：上市银行的环境信息披露水平总体上看近几年有较大提升，但各银行环境信息披露指数的差异很大，差异主要体现在信息披露的数量和可信度上；银行资产规模与环境信息披露水平之间存在显著的正相关关系，实际控股人属性也会对环境信息披露水平产生一定影响。因此，随着企业规模的不断提高，其环境信息披露水平也会相应提升。
［关键词］ 银行业；环境信息；信息披露；社会责任报告
［Abstract］ This paper measures the level of environmental information disclosure of the banking sector in six aspects of environmental report, including credibility, breadth, objectivity, attached importance, performance and convenience, and focuses on the empirical test of the correlation between environmental disclosure index and profitability, size, financial leverage, the nature of actual majority stockholder. The results show that the level of environmental information disclosure of the banking has improved overally. However, there are great differences in the amount and credibility of information disclosure among different banks; there is a significant positive correlation between asset size and the level of information disclosure; the nature of actual majority stockholder also impacts the level of information disclosure. Thus, with the increase of enterprise size, the level of environmental information disclosure will be improved accordingly.
［Key words］ banking; environmental information; information disclosure; social responsibility report
财务特征、股权结构与上市银行现金股利政策
陈立泰 梁 乐 林 川
［摘 要］ 本文从银行业的特殊性出发，基于财务特征和股权结构视角，分别采用二元选择Logit模型和多元线性回归模型对上市银行的现金股利分配倾向和现金股利分配力度进行了实证分析。研究结果表明，银行的现金股利分配倾向与其股权集中度和股权性质显著正相关，而与财务特征并不相关；银行的现金股利分配力度与其资本充足率显著正相关，与其存贷款比率显著负相关，而与股权结构特征并不相关。也即股权结构决定了上市银行是否分配现金股利，而财务特征决定了分多分少。受投资者情绪传染性影响，一家银行的股利高低会影响到其他银行的股利决策。
［关键词］ 上市银行；现金股利；财务特征；股权结构
［Abstract］ Beginning with the distinctiveness of the banking and from the perspective of financial characteristics and ownership structure, the paper employs Logit model and multiple regression models to empirically analyze the tendency and enforcement of cash dividend policy adopted by listed banks. The followings are mainly results: the tendency of cash dividend policy is significantly and positively correlated to the ownership concentration and the property of ownership, but non-correlated to financial characteristics; the enforcement of cash dividend policy is significantly and positively correlated to the capital adequacy ratio, significantly and negatively correlated to loan-to-deposit ratio, and non-correlated to ownership structure. Therefore, the ownership structure decides whether listed banks choose to distribute cash dividend or not, and financial characteristics dominate the amount of cash dividend. Furthermore, due to the contagion of investor sentiment, the cash dividend level of one bank may influence the dividend policies of other banks.
［Key words］ listed bank; cash dividend; financial characteristics; ownership structure
银行利润最大化、效率与ROA
陈 凯 赵晓菊
［摘 要］ 本文依据利润最大化概念分解ROA影响因素，然后再结合效率理论提出eROA（效率ROA）模型，对2003～2010年中国商业银行效率进行分析。结果表明：加入WTO后在去政策性负担和投资拉动型经济增长模式影响下，四大商业银行eROA大幅提高；银行业效率呈现双增长趋同现象；长期发展中，效率与经营稳健性强相关。这一结果也证明了经济增长与金融发展之间的联系。后危机时期国民经济结构调整、经济增长速度放缓和金融体制改革深化将对四大商业银行盈利能力产生较大影响，而对股份制商业银行则影响较弱。
［关键词］ 商业银行；利润最大化；资产回报率；银行业效率
［Abstract］ According to the concept of profit maximization, this paper decomposes the factors to impact ROA and then, based on the efficiency theory, proposes an e-ROA（efficiency-ROA） model to analyze the efficiency of Chinese commercial banks from 2003 to 2010. The results show that, impacted by removing policy-burden and the mode of investment-driven economic growth, the e-ROAs of the largest four commercial banks increase significantly; the efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks and that of the largest four commercial banks converge and so does the efficiency of the joint-stock commercial banks; in the long-term development, efficiency has a strong relationship with operating robustness. The above results have proved the link between economic growth and financial development. In the period of post-crisis, the adjustment of economic structure, the slowdown of economic growth and the deepening reform of the financial system will impact the profitability of the largest four commercial banks significantly, but impact the profitability of the joint-stock commercial banks a little.
［Key words］ commercial bank; profit maximization; ROA; efficiency of the banking sector
商业银行海外投资布局的影响因素
许 南 黄 颖 涂梦云
［摘 要］ 本文梳理了商业银行海外投资理论，采集了2001～2009年15个样本国的面板数据，对中国四大商业银行海外投资布局影响因素进行实证分析，认为中国四大商业银行海外投资布局应以港澳地区作为海外投资的初期重点，以亚太地区作为海外投资的中期重点，着重开发日本、澳大利亚等中心国家，作为其开拓欧美市场的过渡；以欧洲和北美洲为长期重点，着重开发欧盟、美国和加拿大市场，增加中国商业银行海外投资经验；兼顾非洲和南美洲地区，着重开发与中国具有良好经贸往来的南非和巴西市场，选择重点市场进行合理布局。
［关键词］ 商业银行；海外投资；双边贸易；外贸依存度
［Abstract］ This paper reviews the theory of the overseas investment of commercial bank and with the panel data of 15 sample countries from 2001 to 2009, empirically analyses the factors to affect overseas investment layout of China’s four major commercial banks. The author argues that their overseas investment layout should be focused on Hong Kong and Macao at early stage, and at medium stage, should focus on Asia-Pacific region, especially the core countries, such as Japan and Australia, which can be transitional markets to develop European-American markets. In the long term, the overseas investment layout should be focused on Europe and North America and develop EU’s, American and Canadian markets to accumulate the experience of overseas investment. At the same time, Africa and South America should be taken into account and the markets in South Africa and Brazil, the countries with good economic and trade exchanges with China, should be focused and developed. China’s four major commercial banks should choose key markets to make rational layouts.
［Key words］ commercial bank; overseas investment; bilateral trade; ratio of dependence on foreign trade
中国上市银行法律风险案件披露的市场反应
陆 静 马 杨
［摘 要］ 本文以2000～2010年公开披露的中国上市商业银行法律诉讼案件为样本，分析了我国上市商业银行法律诉讼案件信息披露对上市银行股价造成的影响。研究发现，法律风险事件的披露对上市银行股价产生了显著的负影响，且市值损失巨大，同时证券市场的反应存在一定的“超前性”，这说明存在消息的提前泄露。无论银行在法律诉讼中是充当原告还是被告，股价变动的负面影响都是显著的。降低法律风险对商业银行造成的损失，一方面有赖于相关法律法规的进一步完善；另一方面银行自身应开发管理法律风险的技术和方法，并建立完善的内控机制。
［关键词］ 上市商业银行；法律诉讼案件；法律风险；事件研究法；股价
［Abstract］ On the basis of lawsuit cases of Chinese listed banks disclosed from 2000 to 2010，this paper analyses the influence of disclosure of lawsuit case information on share prices of the banks. The result shows that the disclosure of lawsuit cases has a significantly negative impact on share prices of the banks and the loss of market value is huge. The market reactions were earlier than the information disclosures to some extent, which means the pre-revealing of information exists. No matter the role of banks is plaintiff or defendant, the negative impact on share prices is significant. To decrease the loss of commercial banks suffering from legal risk, relevant law and regulation need to be improved, and commercial banks should develop the necessary techniques and approaches and improve internal control as well.
［Key words］ listed commercial bank; lawsuit case; legal risk; event study approach; share price
现代商业银行绩效评价框架——基于价值理论与多维视角的分析
陈全兴 王晓娜
［摘 要］ 本文融合价值理论与商业银行绩效评价的思想，提出整合机构、部门、员工、产品、客户5个视角下的现代商业银行绩效评价新模式，以绩效评价主体、绩效评价要素、绩效评价方法和绩效评价机制为内容，构建理论基础坚实、核心要素完整、逻辑关系统一的现代商业银行绩效评价框架。在此基础上，进一步分析商业银行绩效评价的管理现状，联系商业银行的营销需求与内部管理，提出建设绩效评价信息平台的新思路，发挥绩效评价在实现战略价值、流程控制、信息分享等方面的功能，推进现代商业银行管理会计体系发展，提升商业银行整体价值水平。
［关键词］ 商业银行；绩效评价框架；绩效评价信息平台；价值理论
［Abstract］ By combining the ideas of value theory and performance evaluation, the paper puts forward a new performance evaluation model that integrates 5 main dimensions, including institute, department, employee, product and client. On the basis of the new model, the paper constructs a performance evaluation framework for modern commercial banks, which has solid theoretical foundation, integrated core elements and united logical relation. The main contents of the framework includes performance evaluation subjects, elements, approaches and mechanism. Then the paper further analyses the status quo of performance evaluation of commercial banks. With consideration of the marketing need and internal management of commercial bank, the paper puts forward the new idea to establish an information platform for performance evaluation to fully play the functions of performance evaluation in strategy value, processing control and information share. Such platform will carry forward the development of management accounting system of modern commercial bank and improve the overall value of commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; performance evaluation framework; information platform for performance evaluation; theory of value
基于RFM模型的个人客户忠诚度研究
王文贤 金 阳 陈道斌
［摘 要］ 本文在总结个人客户忠诚研究理论的基础上，提出了基于RFM模型的多层级个人客户忠诚度衡量指标及评估模型。作者利用商业银行数据仓库积累的数据，对个人客户忠诚度进行了实证研究，分析和评价了个人客户的总体忠诚度，以及活期存款、信用卡、定期存款、理财类和贷款的分产品忠诚度；结合客户的收入贡献，将个人客户划分为“挚友、藤壶、蝴蝶、陌生人”四类客户群体，并建议在实际业务应用中，对“挚友”客户重点维系；对“藤壶”客户重点营销，提升其价值；对“蝴蝶”客户进行维护时侧重挽留；而对“陌生人”客户要及时辨识，努力唤醒，降低维系成本。
［关键词］ 商业银行；客户忠诚度；RFM；数据仓库
［Abstract］ Based on the summary of personal loyalty theory, this paper proposes indicators to measure personal customer loyalty and an evaluation model. With the huge amounts of data accumulated by the commercial bank’s data base, the author empirically researches the personal customer loyalty, analyses and evaluates the overall personal customer loyalty and the loyalty towards different products, such as current deposit, credit card, term deposit, wealth management products and loans. According to the revenue contribution of customers, the author divides the personal customers into four groups (friend, barnacle, butterfly, and stranger), and suggests that, in the actual business, it should be the key to maintain the customer “friend”, market the customer “barnacle” and increase its value, retain the customer “butterfly” when it is served, and timely identify and waken the customer “stranger” so as to reduce maintenance cost.
［Key words］ commercial bank; customer loyalty; RFM; data base