银行规模、货币政策与风险承担
谭政勋 (3)
Bank Size, Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking
TAN Zheng-xun (3) 银行高管非金融从业经历与银行风险承担行为
邹 飞 王宗润 (9)
The Non-Financial Experience of Bank Executives and the Risk-Taking Behavior of Banks
ZOU Fei WANG Zong-run (9)
银行市场竞争力、非利息收入与风险承担
张庆君 何德旭 (16)
The Market Competitiveness, Non-Interest Income and Risk-Taking of Banks
ZHANG Qing-jun HE De-xu (16)
中国经济发展趋势与商业银行的机遇和挑战
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (23)
The Trend of China’s Economy and the Opportunity and Challenge of Commercial Banks
The Study Group of Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC (23)
中国普惠金融的发展评价及影响因素分析
王 婧 胡国晖 (31)
The Evaluation of the Development of China’s Inclusive Finance and the Analysis of Factors
WANG Jing HU Guo-hui (31)
宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性分析
洪 露 (37)
The Effectiveness of the Impacts of Macroeconomic Regulation and Control on Housing Mortgage Loan Behavior
HONG Lu (37)
银行业结构与货币政策传导效果
尹 雷 (44)
Banking Structure and the Transmission Effects of Monetary Policy
YIN Lei (44)
银行盈余管理季度差异性研究
曹国华 艾 林 (50)
A Study of Quarterly Difference in the Earnings Management of Banks
CAO Guo-hua AI Lin (50)
金融资产服务业务与银行经营转型
林 谦 (57)
The Business of Financial Asset Service and the Operational Transformation of Bank
LIN Qian (57)
国际税收政策变化与私人银行离岸金融策略
张剑宇 (65)
Changes in International Tax Policy and the Strategies of Private Banking Offshore Finance
ZHANG Jian-yu (65)
促进装备制造业发展的金融支持研究——以中国工商银行沈阳分行为例
王中印 刘静波 张献和 (72)
The Financial Support for the Development of Equipment Manufacturing Industry——A Case Study of Shenyang Branch, ICBC
WANG Zhong-yin LIU Jing-bo ZHANG Xian-he (72)
银行规模、货币政策与风险承担
谭政勋
［摘 要］本文通过实证研究表明，股份制银行比国有控股银行承担了更大的风险，但其风险呈下降趋势，并显著受到货币政策的影响，随着银行规模的扩大而上升；国有控股银行风险承担呈倒U形，在2008年达到最大，与GDP增长率正相关，但其顺周期性随着规模扩大而减弱。银行风险承担与资产利润率正相关，而与资本充足水平负相关。从维护金融稳定的角度而言，中国货币政策的非中性特点在一定程度上存在，并且会越来越明显。货币政策应纳入中国宏观审慎管理框架，股份制银行应在风险承担、规模扩张与效率提升之间寻找平衡点。
［关键词］风险承担；商业银行；股份制银行；国有控股银行；货币政策；金融稳定
［Abstract］ The empirical research of this paper shows that the joint-stock banks have more risk-taking than the state-holding banks, but the risk is in decline and obviously affected by monetary policy. The risk rises as bank size expands. The risk-taking of state-holding banks shows an inverted U-shaped trend and it reaches its maximum in 2008, meanwhile, positively related to GDP growth, but its pro-cyclical characteristics are weakened as the size expands. The risk-taking of the banks is positively related to the return of assets, but negatively related to the level of capital adequacy. From the perspective of maintaining financial stability, China’s monetary policy has non-neutral characteristics to a certain extent and the characteristics will be more and more obvious. The monetary policy should be incorporated into the framework of China’s macro-prudential management. The joint-stock banks should search the balance relationship between risk-taking, size expansion and efficiency improvement.
［Key words］ risk-taking; commercial bank; joint-stock bank; state-holding bank; monetary policy; financial stability
银行高管非金融从业经历与银行风险承担行为
邹 飞 王宗润
［摘 要］ 本文基于32家商业银行2007~2011年的数据，从银行高管非金融业从业经历的角度研究银行的风险承担行为。研究表明，银行高管非金融业从业经历对风险承担行为具有抑制作用，而且银行高管在非金融业中担任高管的经历会增强这种抑制作用。此外，上市与否、持股高管比例、董事会独立性和银行性质，对银行高管非金融从业经历与风险承担行为间的关系有显著影响。政府部门在对银行业进行监管时，不应仅考虑银行规模、性质等因素，还应进一步考察银行高管的非金融业从业经历，利用银行高管的非金融业从业经历达到风险监管的目的。
［关键词］ 商业银行；银行高管；非金融从业经历；风险承担；风险监督
［Abstract］ Based on the data of 32 commercial banks during 2007~2011, this paper researches the risk-taking behavior of the banks from the perspective of the non-financial experience of bank executives. The results show that the non-financial experience of bank executives has inhibitory effects on risk-taking behavior, and their executive experience in non-financial enterprises enhances the inhibitory effects. In addition, stock-being-listed, the ratio of the shares held by executives, the independence of the board of directors and the properties of the bank have significant influence on the relationship between the non-financial experience and the risk-taking behavior. When the government supervises banks, it should not only consider the factors such as sizes and properties of the banks, but also investigate the non-financial experience of bank executives, and utilizes the experience to supervise risks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; bank executive; non-financial experience; risk-taking; risk supervision
银行市场竞争力、非利息收入与风险承担
张庆君 何德旭
［摘 要］ 本文利用2000~2011年中国商业银行数据，采用门限面板模型，就商业银行市场竞争力、非利息收入对商业银行风险承担的影响进行实证研究。研究结果表明，在中国商业银行市场竞争不断加剧的条件下，商业银行市场竞争力与非利息收入和银行风险承担表现出显著的相关性和门限特征：非利息收入的波动性对商业银行风险承担产生了一定影响，但是由于中国商业银行的非利息收入占比较低，其对商业银行风险承担的影响较小；市场竞争力与商业银行风险承担负相关，竞争力越强的商业银行，其发生风险的概率就越小。
［关键词］ 商业银行；市场竞争力；非利息收入；风险承担
［Abstract］ Based on the data of the Chinese commercial banks during 2000~2011 and the threshold panel model, this paper empirically analyses the influence of the market competitiveness, non-interest income of commercial banks on risk-taking. The results show that, under the conditions of market competition being intensified, the market competitiveness and non-interest income of commercial banks indicate threshold characteristics and significant relations to risk-taking. The fluctuation of the non-interest income impacts the risk-taking of commercial banks to a certain extent, but its influence is slight because the non-interest income ratio of the Chinese commercial banks is low. The market competitiveness is negatively related to the market competitiveness, and the stronger the competitiveness of commercial banks is, the less the probability of the risk.
［Key words］ commercial bank; market competitiveness; non-interest income; risk-taking
中国经济发展趋势与商业银行的机遇和挑战
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］ 本文在借鉴新经济增长理论对中国经济增长动力研究成果的基础上，认为中国面临着资源环境约束、人口红利减弱、制度改革瓶颈等多重因素影响，正处于工业化中期向后期过渡阶段，潜在经济增长率将呈缓慢下降趋势。同时，中国自身仍具有区域梯次发展空间、城镇化进程加快、消费潜力巨大等有利条件，可支持中国成功跨越中等收入陷阱。中国经济保持平稳健康成长，对商业银行发展和转型带来巨大机遇；但随着增速回落到中速区间，商业银行将面临成长速度放缓、盈利能力下降、资产质量管理严峻等挑战。
［关键词］ 中国经济；潜在经济增长率；中等收入陷阱；商业银行
［Abstract］ Based on the research of the new theory of economic growth on the power of China’s economic growth, this paper holds that China is facing the problrms such as resources and environment constraints, population bonus decrease, bottlenecks of system reform, etc., and China’s industrialization is in transition process from the middle stage to the final stage. China’s potential economic growth rate will decline slowly. Meanwhile, China still has the advantages that all regions are at different developmental levels, the urbanization process is accelerating and the consumption potential is tremendous, which will help China cross middle-income trap successfully. That China’s economy maintains steady and healthy growth will bring commercial banks huge opportunities to develop and transform. When the economic growth rate decreases to a medium range, however, commercial banks will face severe challenges that the growth rate and profitability slow down, and the quality management of assets is troublesome.
［Key words］ China’s economy; potential economic growth rate; middle-income trap; commercial bank
中国普惠金融的发展评价及影响因素分析
王 婧 胡国晖
［摘 要］ 本文依据2002~2011年中国银行业数据，在运用变异系数法确定权重的基础上构建普惠金融指数，对中国普惠金融的发展状况进行了综合评价，并进一步构建影响因素模型，实证检验四类因素对中国普惠金融发展的影响。研究表明，现阶段中国普惠金融的发展虽历经波折但整体状况良好，其发展以现有金融机构在从业人员和机构网点方面的扩张为主导，但不可忽视存、贷款占比提高的同步性；同时，应采取加强交通基础设施建设、发展农业等弱势产业、缩小城乡收入差距、降低宏观金融政策调整频率等措施，改善金融、经济、社会各方面的状况，协同推进普惠金融的发展。
［关键词］ 普惠金融；普惠金融体系；普惠金融指数；银行业
［Abstract］ Based on the data of the Chinese banks during 2002~2011, this paper uses variation coefficient method to determine weight and construct inclusive finance indexes, comprehensively evaluate the development of China’s inclusive finance, and further build a factor model to test the impacts of four kinds of factors on the development of China’s inclusive finance. The results show that, though China’s inclusive finance has experienced frustration, as a whole, it develops well currently and outspreads mainly on the basis of the staffs and networks of existing financial institutions. But it can’t be ignored that deposits and loans increase synchronously. Meanwhile, measures should be taken to strengthen the construction of traffic infrastructure facilities, develop weak industries such as agriculture,etc., decrease income gap between urban and rural areas, reduce the frequency of macro-financial policy adjustment, improve the status of finance, economy, society, etc. so as to promote the development of inclusive finance together.
［Key words］ inclusive finance; inclusive finance system; inclusive finance index; banking sector
宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性分析
洪 露
［摘 要］ 本文通过建立线性回归模型和Logistic二元回归模型，从微观角度研究宏观调控对住房按揭贷款行为影响的有效性。研究结果表明，中央银行调整贷款基准利率对居民住房按揭贷款首付比例选择有显著影响，贷款基准利率每提高1%，会使住房按揭贷款首付比例提高1.62%；但长、短期贷款基准利差的变化并不会显著影响居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择。同时，借款人性别、教育程度、供养人数、家庭收入、房屋价值、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款首付比例的选择有显著影响；贷款金额、家庭收入、借款人年龄、教育程度、区域等因素对居民住房按揭贷款期限的选择有显著影响。
［关键词］ 宏观调控；住房按揭贷款；基准利率；首付比例；贷款期限
［Abstract］ By building a linear regression model and a binary logistic regression model, this paper analyses the effectiveness of the impacts of macroeconomic regulation and control on housing mortgage loan behavior. The results show that the benchmark interest rate of loan, adjusted by the central bank, will significantly impact the resident’s choice of the initial down-payment ratio of mortgage loan. The 1% increase in benchmark interest rate will cause 1.62% increase in initial down-payment ratio. But the change in interest rate spread between long-term loan and short-term loan doesn’t significantly impact the resident’s choice of mortgage loan term. Meanwhile, borrower’s gender, education degree, number of raised person, family income, house value, area, etc. significantly impact the choice.
［Key words］ macroeconomic regulation and control; housing mortgage loan; benchmark interest rate; initial down-payment ratio; loan term
银行业结构与货币政策传导效果
尹 雷
［摘 要］ 本文利用1993～2011年有关中国银行业结构和中国货币政策的数据分析中国银行业结构对货币政策五个传导渠道的影响，得到以下结论：中国银行业结构弱化了信贷及货币供给量的传导效果，但随着中国银行业集中度的下降，这种弱化效果将会降低；中国银行业结构对利率传导渠道及资本市场传导渠道产生了负向作用，弱化了利率和资本市场的传导效果，随着中国银行业集中度的降低，利率和资本市场传导渠道的传导效果将会增强。中国银行业结构对汇率的传导效果影响不显著。上述结论表明：实施货币政策过程既要重视货币政策的有效性，还要关注银行业结构的影响。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；银行业结构；货币政策；货币政策传导渠道
［Abstract］ This paper uses the data related to China’s banking structure and monetary policy during 1993~2011 to analyse the influence of China’s banking structure on the five transmission channels of monetary policy. The conclusions of the paper include that China’s banking structure weakens the transmission effects of credit and money supply, but the weakening function will decrease as the concentration of China’s banking industry goes down; the structure has negative influence on the transmission channels of interest rate and capital market, and weakens the transmission effects of interest rate and capital market, but the transmission effects of interest rate and capital market will increase as the concentration of China’s banking industry goes down; the influence on the transmission effects of exchange rate is not significant. The above conclusions show that both the effectiveness of monetary policy and the influence of banking structure should be paid attention in the process of implementing monetary policy.
［Key words］ China’s banking industry; banking structure; monetary policy; transmission channel of monetary policy
银行盈余管理季度差异性研究
曹国华 艾 林
［摘 要］ 本文利用2007~2010年间中国上市商业银行的相关数据，以可计量呆账费用和避免盈余损失法测定了商业银行季度盈余管理程度，同时检验商业银行季度盈余管理程度是否具有差异和信息含量。研究发现，商业银行存在普遍的季度盈余管理现象，不同季度的盈余管理均值具有显著差异；商业银行盈余管理的信息含量也具有季度差异性，三季度和四季度的盈余管理行为可以解释股价的变动，表明商业银行会更多地利用三季度财务报告和年度财务报告进行盈余管理。季度报告会带来足够的信息含量，因此对于投资者而言，季度报告的财务数字是可以值得信赖的。
［关键词］ 商业银行；季度盈余管理；财务报告；信息含量
［Abstract］ Based on the data of China’s listed commercial banks during 2007~2010, this paper uses the measuring cost of bad debts and the method“avoiding earnings losses” to measure the levels of the quarterly earnings management of commercial banks, and test whether there is difference and information content in quarterly earnings management. It is found that quarterly earnings management generally exists in commercial banks and the mean value of various quarterly earnings management is different; there is quarterly difference in information content of the earnings management, and the behaviors of earnings management in the third and fourth quarters can explain changes in share price, which indicates that commercial banks are more willing to use the third quarterly financial report and the annual financial report for earnings management. The quarterly financial report has enough information content, therefore, the financial data in quarterly report are worth trusting.
［Key words］ commercial bank; quarterly earnings management; financial report; information content
金融资产服务业务与银行经营转型
林 谦
［摘 要］ 银行监管、利率市场化及银行业竞争促使银行发展金融资产服务业务。目前，国内商业银行主要依靠传统存贷利差和中间业务收入，而发展金融资产服务业务缺少整体战略及稳定的人才队伍，存在同质化竞争。商业银行应制定战略发展金融资产服务业务，推进经营转型；选择适合自己的金融资产服务业务发展方向，建立金融资产服务管理体系和业务支持系统；借助重点改革实验区推动金融资产服务业务发展；加强金融资产服务业务的人才培养和用人机制创新，保持金融资产服务业务人才队伍的稳定。同时，监管部门应建立和完善与市场同步的监管体系，加强风险监管。
［关键词］ 商业银行；金融资产服务；经营转型；利率市场化
［Abstract］ The bank regulation, liberalization of interest rate and banking competition force banks to develop the business of financial asset service. At present, the Chinese commercial banks rely mainly on the interest-rate spread income of traditional deposit-lending business and the income of intermediary business, and the development of the business of financial asset service lacks an overall strategy and stable personnel teams, at the same time, there is homogeneous competition. Commercial Banks should make strategies to develop the business of financial asset service and promote operational transformation; choose the path fit for the development of their own business of financial asset service and establish management system and business support system for financial asset service; promote the development of the business with the help of key experimental-reform districts; strengthen personnel training and the innovation of employing mechanism to maintain the personnel stability of financial asset service. Meanwhile, the regulatory departments should establish and improve regulatory systems synchronized with markets, and strengthen the supervision of risks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; financial asset service; operational transformation; liberalization of interest rate
国际税收政策变化与私人银行离岸金融策略
张剑宇
［摘 要］ 目前各国政府对高净值人群个人的纳税要求更加严格，税务当局也加强针对高净值群体的税收监管，私人银行离岸金融业务受到日益严格的税务监管压力，主要有以下内容：OECD推动的限制“有害税收行为”；美国海外账户税务合规法案要求所有金融机构都向美国财政部披露美国纳税人的账户信息；欧盟储蓄税指令要求在资金划转时预扣税；私人银行保密制度受到严峻挑战，某些离岸司法管辖区以制度规范或其他形式约定银行保密责任义务。对此，私人银行发展离岸金融要积极调整商业模式，发挥综合优势，调整客户结构；优化布局；加强市场研究及人才储备。
［关键词］ 私人银行；高净值客户；离岸金融服务；国际税收政策
［Abstract］ At prsent, the governments of many countries specify more strict tax policies for high-net-worth people. The tax departments have strengthened tax supervision for high-net-worth people. The private banking offshore finance is facing more and more strict tax supervision. These are the main contents: the OECD promotes the limit of harmful tax behavior; the American FATAC requests that all financial institutions disclose American taxpayer’s account information; the EU savings law requests prior-tax when funds are transferred; private banking secrecy system faces severe challenge; some offshore jurisdiction districts stipulate in systems or other ways that banks have confidentiality obligations. Therefore, to develop offshore finance, private banks should actively adjust business mode, make use of comprehensive advantages, adjust customer structure, optimize business layout, strengthen market research and talent reserves.
［Key words］ private banking; high-net-worth customer; offshore financial service; international tax policy
促进装备制造业发展的金融支持研究——以中国工商银行沈阳分行为例
王中印 刘静波 张献和
［摘 要］ 本文在借鉴国内外金融支持装备制造业发展的经验基础上，提出了工商银行沈阳分行支持装备制造业发展的产业链金融解决方案：成立专项产业链金融方案组，创新组织架构和工作流程；明确产业链金融业务重点；设立金融服务中心；设立产业链金融综合服务平台。具体对策包括：转变银行发展方式，打造新型银政、银企关系；调整信贷结构，加大装备制造业信贷投放力度；优化银行组织结构和业务流程，为沈阳装备制造业集群发展提供支持；加强同业合作，大力开展银团贷款业务；推进并购贷款业务，支持装备制造业企业“走出去”。
［关键词］ 沈阳；工商银行；装备制造业；产业链金融；融资
［Abstract］ Based on the survey of the domestic and foreign experience, this paper puts forward a scheme of industrial chain finance for Shenyang branch, ICBC to support the development of equipment manufacturing industry: to set up a scheme group for special industrial chain finance and innovate organizational structure and work process; to define the main business of industrial chain finance; to ste up a financial service center and a comprehensive service platform for industrial chain finance. These are specific measures: to change the development mode and build new bank-government and bank-enterprise relationships; to adjust credit struture and increase the loans of equipment manufacturing industry; to optimize organizational structure and business processes of the bank so as to support the development of Shenyang’s equipment manufacturing industry cluster; to strengthen banking cooperation and promote bank-syndicated loan business; to support equipment manufacturing enterprises to develop abroad.
［Key words］ Shenyang; ICBC; equipment manufacturing industry; industrial chain finance; financing