利率市场化改革与经济增长——基于54个国家的实证研究
王 潇 (3)
The Liberalization Reform of Interest Rate and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study of 54 Countries
WANG Xiao (3)
存款利率市场化与中国宏观经济波动——基于TVAR模型的实证研究
陆 军 陈 郑 (13)
The Liberalization of Deposit Interest Rate and China’s Macroeconomic Fluctuation——An Empirical Study Based on TVAR Mode
LU Jun CHEN Zheng (13)
贷款利率市场化与个体私营企业贷款供给约束
赵 平 (22)
The Liberalization of Loan Interest Rate and the Constraints on Loan Supply to Self-Employed & Private-Owned Enterprises
ZHAO Ping (22)
外资银行进入中国与银行业净利差变化
隋 聪 李 恒 (30)
Foreign-Funded Banks Entering China and Changes in Bank’s Net Interest Margin
SUI Cong LI Heng (30)
商业银行网络信贷模式与发展路径研究
黄绍辉 李 楠 (38)
A Study of the Mode and Developmental Path of the Network Credit of Commercial Bank
HUANG Shao-hui LI Nan (38)
贷款RAROC模型定价与银行定价比较研究
黄纪宪 顾柳柳 (46)
A Comparative Study of the RAROC Model Pricing and Bank Pricing of Loans
HUANG Ji-xian GU Liu-liu (46)
国际大型银行兴衰变化与银行可持续发展规律研究
马素红 罗 宁 (52)
A Study of the Rise and Fall of Big International Banks and the Law of Banking Sustainable Development
MA Su-hong LUO Ning (52)
商业银行国际化的市场拉动与监管助推
李 麟 冯军政 薛求知 (58)
The Market Pull and Regulatory Promotion of the Internationalization of Commercial Banks
LI Lin FENG Jun-zheng XUE Qiu-zhi (58)
A股上市银行股票的内在价值与估值偏离分析
余程辉 (66)
An Analysis of the Intrinsic Value and Value Deviation of the A-Share Listed Bank’ Stocks
YU Cheng-hui (66)
社区支行的业务特点、监管特征与发展策略
于 鸣 (72)
The Business Attributes, Regulatory Characteristics and Developmental Strategy of Bank Community Branch
YU Ming (72)
中国工商银行发展战略咨询会议嘉宾观点荟萃 (77)
The Collection of the Speeches at the Consulting Meeting on ICBC Developmental Strategy (77)
利率市场化改革与经济增长——基于54个国家的实证研究
王 潇
［摘 要］ 本文基于54个国家1970~2000年的有关数据，建立面板回归模型进行分析。研究发现，进行利率市场化改革对经济增长有明显的影响；利率市场化改革对于发展中国家的影响要大于对发达国家的影响；对于发达国家经济增长率的影响趋于积极， 对于发展中国家经济增长率的影响则有正有负，整体综合动向不十分明晰。利率市场化改革与维持经济增长率稳定可能存在冲突。因此，对于中国而言，可以考虑通过给银行等金融机构预留政策准备期、注重实体经济的发展和承受状况、防范改革中止带来的相应冲突等措施来促进利率市场化改革对经济增长的正向影响。
［关键词］ 利率市场化改革；经济增长；发达国家；发展中国家
［Abstract］ Based on the data of 54 countries during 1970~2000, this paper establishes a panel regression model. It is found that the liberalization reform of interest rate has significant impacts on economic growth; the impacts on developing countries are greater than those on developed countries; the impacts on developed countries are positive, but the impacts on developing countries are positive or negative and the overall trend is not very clear. Therefore, China may take measures to promote the positive impacts of the liberalization reform of interest rate on economic growth, such as admitting preparation time for banks and other financial institutions, caring about the development of real economy and the impacts on real economy, preventing conflicts from discontinuing reform.
［Key words］ liberalization reform of interest rate; economic growth; developed country; developing country
存款利率市场化与中国宏观经济波动——基于TVAR模型的实证研究
陆 军 陈 郑
［摘 要］ 本文运用门限向量自回归（TVAR）模型在宏观层面上对中国存款利率约束与宏观经济波动的非线性关联进行实证研究。研究发现：（1）中国在1996年1月至2013年11月期间的大部分时间都处于存款利率有约束状态，而存款利率约束在总体上减少了产出的波动；（2）存款利率有约束时，货币供应量等数量型冲击对产出影响幅度更小、持续时间更短，利率等价格型冲击对经济增长的作用周期更长，紧缩性的利率政策对经济的抑制效果更为明显；（3）存款利率无约束时，数量型冲击总体上持续性更强，价格型冲击则容易引起经济增长短期内大幅波动。
［关键词］ 存款利率约束；利率市场化；宏观经济波动；数量型冲击；价格型冲击
［Abstract］ This paper uses the Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model to verify the nonlinear relationship in macro level between the regulation of deposit interest rate and China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. It is found that, (1) in China, there exists the regulation of deposit interest rate in most of the period during 1996.01~2013.11, and the regulation reduces the fluctuation of output overall; (2) when deposit interest rate is regulated, quantitative impacts, such as money supply, on output are smaller and last for a shorter time, but price-based impacts, such as interest rate, on economic growth last for a longer time and the inhibiting effects of tightening interest rate policy on economy are more obvious; (3) when deposit rates are not regulated, quantitative impacts last for a longer time overall, and price-based impacts are likely to cause great fluctuations in economic growth in the short term.
［Key words］ regulation of deposit interest rate; liberalization of interest rate; macroeconomic fluctuation; quantitative impact; price-based impact
贷款利率市场化与个体私营企业贷款供给约束
赵 平
［摘 要］ 本文利用中国贷款利率浮动上限放开后的省区动态面板数据，对贷款利率上浮的个体私营企业贷款效应进行检验。贷款利率上浮将显著缓解个体私营企业贷款供给约束，贷款利率上浮幅度对个体私企贷款占总贷款的比重均具有显著的正向影响。实证结果并没有表明银根紧缩使个体私营企业取得贷款会比其他借款人更难。在影响银行对个体私营企业贷款投放的因素中，银行贷款供给能力的变化可能并不重要，更为重要的也许是银行对这一群体的贷款投放意愿。因此，为了缓解个体私营企业贷款供给约束，必须加快推进中国利率市场化的改革进程。
［关键词］ 贷款利率；利率市场化；个体私营企业；贷款供给约束
［Abstract］ Based on the provincial dynamic panel data after the abolition of the cap for loan interest rate in China, this paper tests the effects of increase in loan interest rate on the loans of self-employed & private-owned enterprises. The increase in loan interest rate has significantly reduced the constraints on loan supply for the enterprises. The extent of the increase has a significant and positive influence on the ratio of the loans of the enterprises to total loans. The empirical results do not show that monetary tightening makes it more difficult that the enterprises obtain loans than other borrowers. Among the factors to impact banks issuing loans to the enterprises, the changes in the loan supply capacity of banks may not be important, what is more important is whether the banks are willing to issue loans to the enterprises. Therefore, in order to reduce the constraints on loan supply for the enterprises, it’s necessary to accelerate China’s liberalization reform of interest rate.
［Key words］ loan interest rate；liberalization of interest rate; self-employed & private-owned enterprise；constraint on loan supply
外资银行进入中国与银行业净利差变化
隋 聪 李 恒
［摘 要］本文利用2003~2010年间在中国开展业务的本土银行和外资银行样本数据，实证分析外资银行进入对中国银行业的影响。在模型设计中，本文引入3个虚拟变量，分别研究外资银行进入前后中国银行业净利差变化、本土银行与外资银行净利差表现差异、参股投资与直接投资的外资银行净利差表现差异。通过研究发现：由于利率管制和市场份额有限，外资银行进入并未体现出竞争效应；在中国市场环境下，外资银行的技术优势并不明显，相反劣势更加突出；参股投资的外资银行仅利用资本的投入就能通过本土银行网点、客户方面的优势分享收益。
［关键词］ 外资银行；中国银行业；净利差；贷款定价；参股投资；直接投资
［Abstract］ Based on the data of China’s native banks and foreign-funded banks that operate in China during 2003~2010, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the impacts of foreign-funded banks entering China on China’s banking sector. The paper introduces three dummy variables into the model to analyse the changes in net interest margin of China’s banking sector due to the foreign-funded banks entering China, the difference of the changes between native banks and foreign-funded banks, the difference of the changes between foreign-funded banks with equity investment and banks with direct investment. It’s found that, due to interest rate control and limited market share, the entry of foreign-funded banks does not results in competitive effects; in China’s market, foreign-funded banks haven’t shown their technological advantages obviously, but their disadvantages are more obvious; foreign-funded banks with equity investment can make use of the advantages of native banks in outlets and customers to share profits only by capital investment.
［Key words］ foreign-funded bank; China’s banking sector; net interest margin; loan pricing; equity investment; direct investment
商业银行网络信贷模式与发展路径研究
黄绍辉 李 楠
［摘 要］ 本文在“信息不对称”与“交易成本”的分析框架下，探索信贷业务创新的内在逻辑，分析互联网技术的发展对于传统信贷业务的影响、网络信贷未来业务模式与发展路径的演变以及商业银行的应对措施。互联网技术通过共享企业历史信息和信用记录等方式，在均衡状态下使商业银行承担的坏账损失减少，同时绩差企业将逐步放弃作假骗贷行为，使得信贷市场整体效率得到提升。商业银行在发展网络信贷业务中，要正确评估自己与互联网金融公司间的差异，善于运用互联网思维来推进信贷业务模式创新，及时对管理体制和经营机制做出适应性调整等。
［关键词］ 商业银行；网络信贷；信息不对称；交易成本；信贷创新
［Abstract］ Based on the analytical frameworks of “information asymmetry” and “transaction cost”, this paper researches the internal logic of credit business innovation, impacts of the development of internet technology on traditional credit business, the future business mode and developmental path evolution of network credit and the measures of commercial banks. Sharing historical information and credit records, etc. of enterprise by internet technology, commercial banks will reduce their bad debts in the equilibrium state, and meanwhile, the bad-performance enterprises will gradually abandon credit deceit, which will improve the overall efficiency of credit markets. To develop the network credit business, commercial banks ought to estimate the difference between themselves and internet finance companies correctly, make use of internet to innovate credit business mode, adjust management system and operational mechanism in time.
［Key words］ commercial bank; network credit; information asymmetry; transaction cost; credit innovation
贷款RAROC模型定价与银行定价比较研究究
黄纪宪 顾柳柳
［摘 要］ 本文从商业银行贷款定价的基本理论、西方银行的贷款定价实践出发，结合中国实际，提出基于RAROC的定价思路，并从信用风险和客户回报等方面对定价模型进行改进，构建基于客户关系的RAROC定价模型；通过某行贷款数据的实证分析，比较基于RAROC的模型定价与某行的实际定价。结果表明，基于RAROC的定价模型考虑到了预期损失与非预期损失对贷款的影响，能反映银行的资本成本、风险成本、资金成本和经营成本等；基于RAROC的定价模型有助于银行优化资本管理，提高贷款收益，提高绩效考核科学性，应对市场竞争。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；RAROC；客户关系；贷款定价；动态定价
［Abstract］ Based on the basic theory of commercial bank loan pricing, loan pricing practices of the western banks and China’s actual situation, this paper proposes a RAROC-based pricing idea. The paper improves the pricing model in aspects of credit risk and customer returns, establishes a RAROC model based on customer relationship. Based on the empirical analysis of the loan data of a bank, the paper compares the RAROC model pricing with the real pricing of the bank. The results show that the impacts of expected loss and unexpected loss on loans are considered in the RAROC-based pricing model, so the model can reflects the capital costs, risk costs, financing costs and operational costs, etc. of banks. The RAROC-based pricing model can help banks improve capital management, market competition, loan earnings, performance appraisal and competitiveness.
［Key words］ liberalization of interest rate; RAROC; customer relationship; loan pricing; dynamic pricing
国际大型银行兴衰变化与银行可持续发展规律研究
马素红 罗 宁
［摘 要］ 本文通过梳理国际大型银行过去20年的排名变化，特别是日本、法国一些大型银行发展进程中的失败教训，探讨总结了国际大型银行由盛转衰的原因：一是宏观环境变化直接影响银行起落，泡沫经济破灭带来多重负面冲击；二是盲目扩张规模导致风险过度累积，使银行发展的可持续性十分脆弱；三是过度倚赖总量扩张规模效应，发展战略调整滞后，导致银行缺乏有效的应变能力。国际大型银行发展经验与教训表明，规模扩张不应当成为金融机构追求的主要目标。要保持长远发展，就必须摒弃总量扩张的思维，提高发展的内涵和品质，由做大转而谋求做强。
［关键词］ 国际大型银行；规模扩张；可持续性；内涵式增长
［Abstract］ Based on the survey of the changes in the international ranking of big banks during the past 20 years, especially the failures of Japanese and French big banks in developmental process, this paper analyses the reasons that big banks decline. The reasons are as follows: (1) changes in macro-economy directly influence the rise or fall of big banks and the collapse of bubble economy results in adverse impacts on banks; (2) blindly expanding leads to excessive risk accumulation and thus impairs the sustainable development of banks; (3) over-reliance on the scale effects of expansion and lagging adjustment in developmental strategy weaken the adaptability of banks. The experience of big international banks in developmental process shows that scale expansion should not be a major goal of financial institution. To maintain a long-term development, it is necessary to abandon expansion strategy and improve developmental quality and efficiency so as to make banks strong rather than big.
［Key words］ big international bank; scale expansion; sustainability; intensive growth
商业银行国际化的市场拉动与监管助推
李 麟 冯军政 薛求知
［摘 要］ 本文在考察中国商业银行国际化现状与不足的基础上，结合当前银行业市场竞争格局和监管制度演化特征，提出市场拉动和监管助推是商业银行国际化最为关键的两个驱动力：从中国金融业深化改革的变化趋势看，市场需求将是商业银行国际化的最根本驱动力，企业“走出去”数量的增加、并购方式的频繁采用和企业“走出去”水平的不断提高，极大地促进商业银行传统业务的跨境发展和开发新业务；银行业监管机构通过完善监管政策、提高监管水平和放松管制等，有利于培育银行业良好的竞争环境、提高经营效率和规范业务创新，进而促进商业银行国际化。
［关键词］商业银行；商业银行国际化；市场需求；市场拉动；监管助推
［Abstract］Based on the analysis of the status quo and lacks in the internationalization of Chinese commercial banks, the market competition and the characteristics of the evolution of regulatory systems, this paper argues that market drive and regulatory promotion are the most key forces to drive the internationalization of commercial banks. Considering the trend of the deepening reform of Chinese financial sector, the market demands will be the most fundamental force. The increase in the quantity and level of enterprises that operate overseas, frequent use of mergers and acquisitions will greatly promote commercial banks to develop cross-border traditional business and new business. That banking regulatory agencies improve regulatory policies and levels, and reduce regulation, etc. is conducive to constructing a good competitive environment for banking sector, improving operational efficiency, regulating business innovation, and so as to promote the internationalization of commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; internationalization of commercial bank; market demand; market pull; regulatory promotion
A股上市银行股票的内在价值与估值偏离分析
余程辉
［摘 要］ 本文基于资本市场普遍采用的三阶段股利贴现模型，以三家A股代表性上市银行为样本，以较为谨慎的盈利增速，模拟测算了其内在价值，并与市场公开模型进行了结果印证。研究表明，A股上市银行股票的市场价格长期低于其内在价值区间，从模型参数角度分析，这种估值偏离的主要影响因素是实际折现率溢价、长期增长信心折价、非对称信息折价、短期投资考核机制等。本文认为，未来A股上市银行股价上涨的主要驱动力将会来自于自身估值回归，那些经营基本面良好、投资者关系公开透明的银行的股票或存在较大的估值回归动能。
［关键词］ A股上市银行；内在价值；估值偏离；折现率
［Abstract］ Based on the three-stage Dividend Discount Model (DDM) which is generally used in capital markets, this paper estimates the intrinsic values of three representative A-share listed banks with moderate earnings growth, and compares the values with the outcomes of models used in open markets. The results of the paper show that the market prices of the stocks of A-share listed banks are below their intrinsic values over a long period of time. The analysis based on the model parameters shows that the main factors which impact value deviation are the premium of the real discount rate, the discount of the confidence in long-term growth, the discount of information asymmetry and the short-term appraisal mechanism of investment performance, etc. The paper argues that the main force to drive the stock prices of A-share listed banks to rise is that the values of stocks rise at their normal levels. The stocks of the banks that have good operational performance, open and transparent investor relationship maybe have a great possibility of value rising.
［Key words］ A-share listed bank; intrinsic value; value deviation; discount rate
社区支行的业务特点、监管特征与发展策略
于 鸣
［摘 要］ 社区支行是商业银行一种特殊类型的支行，属于简易型银行网点。社区支行在业务经营上呈现出三个特点：一是设立在大型社区，主要服务于社区居民；二是“实行有限牌照”，主要办理个人金融业务；三是可以选择多种业务办理方式。社区支行在准入资格的监管上更加强调事前审查和调控，而在设立的具体行政审批过程上则更加强调简政放权原则，因此体现了双重监管的特征。大型商业银行发展社区支行，要发挥自身渠道优势，明确社区支行的战略定位和服务模式，制定好社区支行发展规划；同时，要加强社区支行内部管理，提高精细化运营水平。
［关键词］ 社区支行；有限牌照；双重监管；大型商业银行
［Abstract］ Community branch is a special kind of commercial bank branch, and is a simple type of bank outlet. The business of community branch has three features. First, it locates in large community and primarily serves the community residents. Second, because of limited license, it focuses on personal financial services. Third, it can choose a variety of methods to process business. The regulation of the entry qualifications of community branch focuses more on the prior censoring and control. The administrative approval process follows the principles of simplification and decentralization, so it shows a dual-regulation feature. To develop community branch, large commercial banks ought to make use of their own channel strengths, develop clear strategy and service model, make a perfect developmental plan, improve the internal management and operation of community branch.
［Key words］ community branch; limited license; dual-regulation; large commercial bank