全球外资流动趋势、前景与中国金融业的对策
吕振艳 杜国臣 (3)
The Trends and Prospects of Global Foreign Investment Flow and the Strategies of China's Financial Sector
LV Zhen-yan DU Guo-chen (3)
新兴市场国际资本流动的动因——基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场的研究
熊 园 杨海珍 昃于靖 (12)
The Determinants of International Capital Flow in Emerging Markets——A Study Based on Asian and Latin American Emerging Markets
XIONG Yuan YANG Hai-zhen ZE Yu-jing (12)
跨国银行对外投资外币折算风险与净投资套期研究
刘明坤 张红军 丁明星 (18)
A Study of the Foreign Currency Retranslation Risks and Net Investment Hedging of the Foreign Investment of Multinational Bank
LIU Ming-kun ZHANG Hong-jun DING Mimg-xing (18)
四大国有商业银行差异化营销战略比较研究
刘 明 刘 涛 张同建 (26)
A Comparative Study of the Differential Marketing Strategies of Four State-Owned Commercial Banks
LIU Ming LIU Tao ZHANG Tong-jian (26)
中国商业银行信贷配置效率——基于省域和行业数据的研究
刘 飞 (32)
The Credit Allocation Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks——A Study Based on Provincial and Industrial Data
LIU Fei (32)
中国商业银行社会责任的动因与社会绩效
朱 蓉 (38)
The Motivation of Chinese Commercial Bank’s Social Responsibility and Its Social Performance
ZHU Rong (38)
中小企业生命周期与银行信贷资产质量
李润平 聂广礼 (45)
The Life Cycle of SME and the Quality of Bank Credit Assets
LI Run-ping NIE Guang-li (45)
科技型中小企业特征与银行融资的关系研究
程欣炜 林乐芬 (53)
A Study of the Relationship between the Characteristics of Sci-Tech SME and Bank Financing
CHENG Xin-wei LIN Le-fen (53)
第三方资产管理平台发展状况与商业银行的对策
贺本岚 黄 旭 韩斯玥 (61)
The Development Status of the Third-Party Asset Management Platform and the Strategies of Commercial Banks
HE Ben-lan HUANG Xu HAN Si-yue (61)
宏观货币政策调整对票据市场利率的影响
中国工商银行票据营业部课题组 (68)
The Impacts of Macro-Monetary Policy Adjustment on the Interest Rate of Bill Market
Study Group of Bill Business Department, ICBC (68)
“上海自贸区建设与票据市场创新”座谈会观点综述 (76)
A Summary of the Speeches at the Seminar on “Shanghai Free Trade Zong Construction and Bill Market Innovation” (76)
全球外资流动趋势、前景与中国金融业的对策
吕振艳 杜国臣
［摘 要］ 金融危机后全球外国直接投资（FDI）大幅受挫，多轮震荡后于2013年回升至危机前水平。对比危机前后，全球FDI流动呈现五大特点：流量回升且冲击小，竞争加剧且区域差距缩小，发达国家低位反弹且差距扩大，发展中国家总量上升但比重微降，区域引资能力分化。发达国家、发展中国家及新兴经济体经济复苏和发展的不平衡，引资形式多样，流向分散和政策多变不仅影响危机后这些特点的形成，也影响到今后全球FDI的流动。中国金融业应增强引资国际竞争力，加强多渠道区域合作，提高对国际资本的监测和管控水平，均衡合理地融入全球经济，增强国际竞争力和国际化综合经营实力。
［关键词］ 全球外资流动；外国直接投资；发达国家；发展中国家；新兴经济体
［Abstract］ After the financial crisis, the global FDI suffered a lot and managed to boost up at the pre-crisis level in 2013. Compared with the pre-crisis status, the global FDI flow shows five characteristics that the quantity is rebounding but not violent; the competition is more fierce and regional gap is decreasing; the quantity of developed countries is rebounding from a low level and the disparity between the countries is increasing; the total quantity of developing countries rises but its ratio fall slightly; regional ability to attract investment becomes differentiated. The imbalance in the economic recovery and development of developed countries, developing countries and emerging economies, the various forms to attract investment, the flow dispersion and the varied policy influence not only the formation of the above characteristics, but also the future global FDI movement. China’s financial sector needs to strengthen its own international competitiveness to attract investment and regional cooperation in multiple channels, improve the level of international capital monitoring and control, be rationally integrated into the global economy, enhance international competitiveness and the ability of international and comprehensive operation.
［Key words］ global FDI movement; FDI; developed country; developing country; emerging economy
新兴市场国际资本流动的动因——基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场的研究
熊 园 杨海珍 昃于靖
［摘 要］ 本文基于亚洲和拉美新兴市场13个样本国家1980~2013年的季度数据，运用静态和动态非均衡面板模型，对国际资本流动两种重要形式——直接投资和证券投资的动因进行区域比较研究。实证结果表明：本国和发达国家经济发展水平均对新兴市场的国际资本流动具有较为明显的拉动和推动作用；贸易开放度、利率水平、金融深化程度等表征一国投资环境的指标是国际资本流动的重要驱动因素；重大事件的发生、经济预期和汇市预期等预期因素的作用亦不可忽视；直接投资和证券投资的驱动因素存在显著的区域性差异。
［关键词］ 新兴市场；国际资本流动；直接投资；证券投资；投资环境
［Abstract］ Based on the quarterly data of 13 sample countries, the Asian and Latin American emerging markets, during 1980~2013, this paper uses static and dynamic disequilibrium panel data models to compare regionally the determinants of the two important forms of international capital flow, direct investment and security investment. The empirical results show that the national and developed countries’ economic development levels play a significant role in pulling and pushing the international capital flow in the emerging markets; the levels of trade openness, interest rate and financial deepening, etc., which are indexes representing a country’s investment environment, are major factors to promote international capital flow; major events, economic expectation, currency market expectation and other expectation factors also play a significant role. There is obviously a regional difference in the determinants of direct investment and security investment.
［Key words］ emerging market; international capital flow; direct investment; investment security; investment environment
跨国银行对外投资外币折算风险与净投资套期研究
刘明坤 张红军 丁明星
［摘 要］ 净投资套期可以增加跨国银行资产负债状况的稳定性，降低国别风险对投资价值的影响以及汇率变动对退出投资的影响。随着中资银行国际化战略的实施和中国汇率市场化，中资银行可将净投资套期作为管理汇率风险的工具之一，从而降低汇率波动对股东权益和资本充足率的影响，在治理架构和政策制定上，要明确汇率风险管理在集团风险管理框架内的决策路径和职能分工；在符合集团风险政策和风险偏好的前提下设置合理的海外投资净资产套期的长期目标并适时调整；结合投资构成充分考虑套期的成本和风险，在衍生和非衍生工具之间做出审慎选择。
［关键词］ 跨国银行；对外投资；外币折算风险；汇率风险管理；净投资套期
［Abstract］ Net investment hedging can improve the stability of multinational bank’s asset liability, reduce the impacts of country risks on investment value and the impacts of exchange rate volatility on foreign investment retreat. With the implementation of the international strategy of Chinese banks and the liberalization of Chinese exchange rate, net investment hedging can be one of the means for Chinese banks to manage exchange risks so as to reduce the impacts of exchange rate volatility on shareholders’ equity and capital adequacy ratio. The governance structure and policies of the banks need to reflect the decision-making path and function division of exchange rate risk management in the framework of group’s risk management. In the context of compliance with the group’s risk policy and risk preference, Chinese banks should set a reasonable long-term goal for the net asset hedging of their overseas investment and make timely adjustments in the goal, and according to investment structure, hedging costs and risks, make a prudent choice between derivative and non-derivative instruments.
［Key words］ multinational bank; foreign investment; foreign currency retranslation risk; exchange rate risk management; net investment hedging
四大国有商业银行差异化营销战略比较研究
刘 明 刘 涛 张同建
［摘 要］本文以二级分行为样本，分别对四大国有商业银行差异化营销战略进行实证性检验。研究发现：工商银行差异化优势在于数据库建设、市场细分和产品差异化，不足在于分销渠道差异化和服务差异化的功能缺失；建设银行差异化优势在于数据库建设和分销渠道差异化，不足在于市场细分、市场差异化和银行形象差异化的功能缺失；农业银行差异化优势在于数据库建设和市场细分，不足在于产品差异化、服务差异化和银行形象差异化的功能缺失；中国银行差异化优势在于数据库建设、服务差异化和银行形象差异化，不足在于市场细分、市场差异化和分销渠道差异化的功能缺失。
［关键词］商业银行；差异化营销；战略导向；市场细分
［Abstract］ Based on the samples of the second-class branches, this paper respectively tests the differential marketing strategies of four state-owned commercial banks. It is found that the differential strengths of ICBC are database construction, market segmentation and product differentiation, and its weakness is lack of the functions of distribution channel differentiation and service differentiation; the differential strengths of CCB are database construction, distribution channel differentiation, and its weakness is lack of the functions of market segmentation, market differentiation and bank imaging differentiation; the differential strengths of ABC are database construction and market segmentation, and its weakness is lack of the functions of product differentiation, service differentiation and bank imaging differentiation; the differential strengths of BOC are database construction, service differentiation and bank imaging differentiation, its weakness is lack of the functions of market segmentation, market differentiation and distribution channel differentiation.
［Key words］ commercial bank; differential marketing; strategic orientation; market segmentation
中国商业银行信贷配置效率——基于省域和行业数据的研究
刘 飞
［摘 要］ 本文根据中国商业银行2005~2012年的省域和行业贷款数据，运用面板数据模型，分析银行信贷的省域和行业配置效率及影响因素。结果表明：中国商业银行信贷的省域配置并没有完全按照市场化的原则来进行，而受到了政府干预程度、省域市场化水平等因素的影响。银行信贷的行业配置也没有完全按照市场化的原则来进行，同时行业的国有经济比例仍是影响银行信贷的重要因素。另外，无论是银行信贷的行业配置还是省域配置，都考虑了银行贷款的质量。这表明中国近几年的银行信贷配置，既考虑了银行自身的盈利，也兼顾了政府的政策要求。
［关键词］ 商业银行；信贷配置效率；行业配置；省域配置
［Abstract］ Based on the provincial and industrial loan data of Chinese commercial banks during 2005~2012, this paper uses panel data model to analyse provincial and industrial credit allocation efficiency and factors to influence the efficiency. The results of the study show that the provincial credit allocation of Chinese commercial banks is not fully in accordance with market principle and influenced by the degree of government intervention, provincial marketization level and other factors. The industrial credit allocation of banks is also not fully in accordance with market principle, and the proportion of state-owned economy in the industry is still an important factor to influence the credits of banks. In addition, the quality of bank loans is considered in both industrial allocation and provincial allocation. The above results show that bank profits and the requirements of governmental policy are considered in the credit allocation of banks in recent years.
［Key words］ commercial bank; credit allocation efficiency; industrial allocation; provincial allocation
中国商业银行社会责任的动因与社会绩效
朱 蓉
［摘 要］ 本文以制度理论和Carroll的企业社会责任动因三维模型为依据，分析2008~2011年中国商业银行的财务数据、社会责任报告、媒体报道和监管规定，研究企业社会责任的决定性因素，以及企业社会绩效和滞后一年的经济绩效的关系。研究发现：监管压力、净利率与企业社会绩效正相关，而成本收入比与企业社会绩效负相关；与非上市银行相比，上市银行（包括四大国有控股银行）的社会绩效更高；与城市商业银行相比，股份制商业银行的社会绩效更高；此外，企业社会绩效与企业滞后一年的净利率正相关，与滞后一年的成本收入比负相关。提高社会绩效需要监管部门和商业银行的共同努力。
［关键词］ 商业银行；企业社会责任；监管压力；社会绩效；经济绩效
［Abstract］ Based on the institutional theory and Carroll’s three-domain model of corporate social responsibility, this paper analyses the financial data, social responsibility reports, media reports and regulatory requirements of Chinese commercial banks, and researches the determinants of corporate social responsibility and the relationship between corporate social performance and economic performance one year later. It is found that regulatory pressure and net interest positively correlate with corporate social performance, but the ratio of cost to income is negatively correlates with the performance; compared to non-listed banks, listed banks (including the four-largest state-owned banks) have better social performance; compared to city commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks have better social performance. In addition, corporate social performance positively correlate with corporate net interest one year later, and negatively correlates with the ratio of cost to income one year later. The improvement in social performance needs commercial banks and regulators to work together.
［Key words］ commercial bank; corporate social responsibility; regulatory pressure; social performance; economic performance
中小企业生命周期与银行信贷资产质量
李润平 聂广礼
［摘 要］ 本文以浙江省6 381家县域中小企业银行信贷数据为样本，分析中小企业生命周期与银行信贷资产质量的关系，检验中小企业生命周期对信贷资产质量影响的传导机制。结果表明：处于不同生命周期中小企业的信贷资产质量从高到低的次序为成熟期、成立期、衰退期和成长期；中小企业的生命周期通过直接嵌入和间接嵌入两条路径影响信贷资产质量，其中，信用评级为间接路径的传导变量。因此，应强化生命周期的间接嵌入作用，做好中小企业信贷风险预警；建立中小企业信息数据库；建立基于生命周期的中小企业信贷资产管理长效机制等。
［关键词］浙江；中小企业；生命周期；信贷资产质量；违约次序
［Abstract］ This paper uses the credit data of 6 381 SMEs in the Counties of Zhejiang province as samples to analyse the relationship between the life cycle of SME and the quality of bank credit assets, and tests the transmission mechanism of the impacts of the life cycle on the quality of credit assets. The results of the paper show that the quality of credit assets of SMEs in different life cycles ranks from top to bottom in such an order: maturity period, establishment period, recession period and growth period; by two approaches of direct embedding and indirect embedding, the life cycle influences the quality of credit assets, and credit rating is a transmission variable of indirect approach. Therefore, we should strengthen the function of the indirect embedding of life cycle and improve the risk warning of the credits of SMEs; establish the information database of SMEs; create a long-term effective and life-cycle-based management mechanism of the credit assets of SMEs.
［Key words］ Zhejiang; SME; life cycle; quality of credit asset; default order
科技型中小企业特征与银行融资的关系研究
程欣炜 林乐芬
［摘 要］ 通过对江苏省450家中小企业（含133家科技型中小企业和317家一般中小企业）的分层抽样和问卷调查，本文从企业、银行、政府和贷款本身等4个角度构建融资特征指标体系，运用二元Probit模型，对比考察了科技型中小企业与一般中小企业在商业银行融资影响因素上的相同点和差异性。研究结果证实了科技型中小企业较一般中小企业更易获得商业银行贷款；非银行渠道融资与银行渠道融资并非替代关系；金融产品创新是最重要的科技型中小企业融资影响因素；企业类型、金融优惠政策和是否进驻园区对科技型中小企业融资难易程度的影响不大。
［关键词］科技型中小企业；一般中小企业；商业银行；融资特征；金融产品创新
［Abstract］Based on the stratified samples and questionnaire of 450 SMEs(133 sci-tech SMEs and 317 general SMEs), this paper constructs a indicator system of financing characteristics in 4 approaches, enterprise, bank, government and loan, and uses a binary Probit model to compare sci-tech SMEs with general SMEs so as to find the similarities and differences in the factors to influence commercial bank financing. The results of the paper show that sci-tech SMEs can gain loans easier than general SMEs; there is not a substitute relationship between non-bank financing and bank financing; financial product innovation is the most important factor to influence the financing of sci-tech SMEs; enterprise type, financial incentives policy and whether or not the enterprise is in sci-tech park do not greatly influence the financing.
［Key words］ sci-tech SME; general SME; commercial bank; financing characteristic; financial product innovation
第三方资产管理平台发展状况与商业银行的对策
贺本岚 黄 旭 韩斯玥
［摘 要］ 第三方资产管理平台弥补了商业银行部分客户服务领域的不足，对银行传统销售渠道产生了重要影响，并促进了银行业务的综合化与全能化。尽管第三方资产管理平台发展如火如荼，但仍然存在一些问题，如资产管理服务能力薄弱，业务种类不全面，监督缺失等。商业银行应拓展经营范围，融入网民生活和消费投资习惯；加强产品和服务创新，为客户提供更便捷的服务；依托互联网平台做好渠道创新；加强风险防范，全面识别潜在风险；充分利用数据挖掘技术，释放客户潜在需求，为客户提供个性化资产管理服务。
［关键词］ 第三方资产管理平台；商业银行；资产管理；互联网金融
［Abstract］ The third-party asset management platform can make up for the lack of some customer service of commercial banks. It has a significant impact on the traditional sale channels of banks and promotes the integration and comprehensiveness of bank business. Despite the fact that the third-party asset management platform develops rapidly, there are still some problems, such as its weak ability of asset management service, limited business types, incomplete supervision, etc. Commercial banks should expand their business scope and research internet user’s life, investment and consumption habits; enhance the innovation of products and services to provide customers with more perfect service; innovate channels relying on the internet platform; strengthen risk control, fully identify potential risks; make full use of data mining technology to find customer’s potential demands and provide customers with personalized service of asset management.
［Key words］ third-party asset management platform; commercial bank; asset management; internet banking
社宏观货币政策调整对票据市场利率的影响
中国工商银行票据营业部课题组
［摘 要］新世纪以来，中国票据市场利率呈现阶段性波动态势，宏观货币政策调整是影响票据利率走势的最主要因素之一。本文实证分析表明，价格型货币政策对票据利率变动影响大，数量型货币政策对票据利率影响周期长，票据利率与自身前期走势高度关联；同时货币市场资金状况和经营主体的经营策略差异对票据市场利率变动也存在较大影响。为此，商业银行要主动把握宏观经济及货币政策周期变动规律，对票据业务进行合理定价，加快转变发展方式应对票据利率定价市场化带来的机遇和挑战，持续提升票据业务定价水平和议价能力。
［关键词］ 票据市场；票据市场利率；票据贴现；SHIBOR；货币政策；货币市场
［Abstract］ Since the new century, the interest rate of Chinese bill market shows a periodic fluctuation, and macro-monetary policy adjustment is one of the main factors to influence the interest rate. The empirical analysis of the paper show that price-based monetary policy has great impacts on the changes in interest rate, and quantitative monetary policy has long-term impacts; the interest rate of bill market correlates highly with the level of the interest rate in previous term; the status quo of money market and the difference between dealers’ business strategies have great impacts on the changes in the interest rate. Therefore, commercial banks should reasonably price bills according to the law of the periodic changes in macro-economy and monetary policy, accelerate the transformation of development mode to grasp the opportunities in the pricing liberalization of the interest rate of bill and face challenges, improve ability to price and bargain.
［Key words］ bill market; interest rate of bill market; bill discount; SHIBOR; monetary policy; monetary market