利率市场化、非利息收入与银行净利差
王 欢 郭建强 (3)
The Liberalization of Interest Rate, Non-Interest Income and the Net Interest Margin of Banks
WANG Huan GUO Jian-qiang (3)
利率市场化与银行风险——基于影子银行与互联网金融视角的研究
戴国强 方鹏飞 (13)
The Liberalization of Interest Rate and the Risks of Bank——A Study from the Perspective of Shadow Banking and Internet Finance
DAI Guo-qiang FANG Peng-fei (13)
中国影子银行的货币供给补充与替代效应——来自货币乘数的证据
解凤敏 李 媛 (20)
The Complementary and Alternative Effects of the Money Supply of Chinese Shadow Banking——Evidences of Money Multiplier
XIE Feng-min LI Yuan (20)
后危机时代国际大型银行战略转型研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组 (29)
A Study of the Strategic Transformation of International Large Banks in Post-Crisis Era
Study Group of Urban Finance Research Institute, ICBC (29)
货币错配对商业银行盈利水平的影响
宋帅邦 崔建鹏 (40)
The Influence of Money Mismatch on the Profitability of Commercial Banks
SONG Shuai-bang CUI Jian-peng (40)
网上银行顾客感知价值对银行顾客资产的影响
王珺红 刘 洋 史 涛 (50)
The Impacts of Online Banking Customer’s Perceived Value on the Customer Equity of Bank
WANG Jun-hong LIU Yang SHI Tao (50)
问题银行市场退出机制信息系统架构设计研究
徐秋菊 曹利莎 张同建 (60)
A Study of the Design of the Information System Structure of the Market Withdrawal Mechanism for Banks in Trouble
XU Qiu-ju CAO Li-sha ZHANG Tong-jian (60)
信息通讯技术、金融包容与经济增长
刘海二 (65)
ICT, Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth
LIU Hai-er (65)
次优小微企业金融培育支持系统研究
杨大光 徐敬红 (75)
A Study of Financial Cultivation System for Sub-Prime Small and Micro-Enterprises
YANG Da-guang XU Jing-hong (75)
利率市场化、非利息收入与银行净利差
王 欢 郭建强
［摘 要］ 本文利用中国16家上市商业银行2006年第4季度至2013年第3季度的面板数据进行分析，结果显示：非利息收入占比与净利差在总体上呈U形关系；非利息收入出现的巨额亏损会迫使银行提高净利差以弥补损失，在正常状态下，二者因交叉补贴效应呈正向关系；利率市场化改革降低了银行的净利差水平，全国性银行可以通过发展非利息收入应对这种不利影响，但区域性银行则难以利用这种策略。因此，中国的商业银行应走差异化道路，全国性银行可以大力发展非利息收入，区域性银行更应专注净利息收入，且都需加强对非利息收入的风险管理，从而更好地适应利率市场化改革。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；非利息收入；净利差；上市商业银行
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of China 16 listed commercial banks from the 4th quarter, 2006 to the 3rd quarter, 2013, the analysis of this paper shows that there is a U-shaped relationship between non-interest income ratio and net interest margin; the huge loss of non-interest income will force banks to increase net interest margin to compensate for the loss, and under normal conditions, the both have a positive relationship due to cross-subsidization effects; the liberalization reform of interest rate reduces the net interest margin level of banks, and national banks can respond to such an adverse effect by developing non-interest income, but it’s difficult for regional banks to do so. Therefore, Chinese banking sector needs to choose differential strategy. The national banks may develop non-interest income, the regional banks needs more to focus on net interest income, and the both need to strengthen the risk management of non-interest income to adapt to the liberalization reform of interest rate.
［Key words］liberalization of interest rate; non-interest income; net interest margin; listed commercial bank
戴国强 方鹏飞
［摘 要］ 本文基于影子银行、互联网金融的视角，通过模型分析和数值模拟对利率市场化进程中商业银行的风险演变进行研究。结果表明，互联网金融增加银行风险，而影子银行对银行风险有两种不同影响渠道。在影子银行发展初期，正面影响占据主导，银行风险随影子银行规模增加而减小，在影子银行达到一定规模后，负面影响占据主导，银行风险随影子银行规模增加而增大。在对融资成本影响方面，影子银行降低经济中的融资成本，互联网金融增加融资成本，纠正存款利率管制带来的利率扭曲。为了维护金融稳定，需重视影子银行和互联网金融对银行业的冲击。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；银行风险；影子银行；互联网金融
［Abstract］ From the perspective of shadow banking and internet finance, this paper uses model and datum simulation to analyze the changes in the risks of commercial banks in the liberalization process of interest rate. The results of the paper show that internet finance increases the risks of banks, and shadow banking impacts the risks of banks by two different channels; during initial stage of the development of shadow banking, the influence is mainly positive, and the risks of banks decrease with the increase in size of shadow banking; when the size of shadow banking reaches a certain level, the influence is mainly negative, and the risks of banks rise with the increase in size of shadow banking; as to the influence on financing costs, shadow banking decreases economic financing costs, and internet finance increases the costs, which corrects the interest rate distortion caused by the control of deposit interest rate. In order to maintain financial stability, it’s necessary to pay attention to the impacts of shadow banking and internet finance on banking sector.
［Key words］ liberalization of interest rate; risk of bank; shadow banking; internet finance
中国影子银行的货币供给补充与替代效应——来自货币乘数的证据
解凤敏 李 媛
［摘 要］ 本文将影子银行引入银行存款乘数模型，分析影子银行通过分流银行存款、扩大社会信用供给对于货币供给的补充与替代效应，运用向量误差修正模型和状态空间模型及2002～2013年的月度数据进行实证分析。结果表明，影子银行规模扩张总体上扩大了货币乘数，但因经济周期和货币政策立场不同而具有明显“非对称性”；在社会总需求扩张阶段，影子银行可以有效补充银行信贷供给不足，而在货币政策紧缩时期，影子银行信用扩张对银行信贷形成替代；影子银行顺周期变化与货币政策逆周期调控之间的矛盾弱化了货币政策效果。
［关键词］ 影子银行；信贷；信用创造；货币乘数；货币供给；货币政策
［Abstract］ This paper introduces shadow banking as a factor into the model of bank deposit multiplier to analyze the complementary and alternative effects of shadow banking on money supply by absorbing bank deposits and expanding social credit supply, and uses vector error correction model, state-space model and the monthly data during 2002-2013 for empirical analysis. The results of the paper show that the expansion of shadow banking has generally result in the increase in money multiplier, but the both change asymmetrically due to the different economic cycles and monetary policy orientation; in the period of the expansion of aggregate social demand, shadow banking can be an effective supplement of the deficiency in bank credit supply, and in the period of tightening monetary policy, the expansion of shadow banking is an alternative to bank credit; the contradiction between the pro-cyclical variation of shadow banking and the reverse cycle regulation of monetary policy has weakened the effectiveness of monetary policy.
［Key words］ shadow banking; credit; credit creation; money multiplier; money supply; monetary policy
后危机时代国际大型银行战略转型研究
中国工商银行城市金融研究所课题组
［摘 要］本文在分析后危机时代国际大型银行的外部经营环境及行业运行态势变化的基础上，归纳出国际银行业战略转型的最新趋势，包括去杠杆化、去国际化、技术革新、文化再造以及通过“银行经济学”挖潜增效等。中国银行业应当从欧美大型银行新一轮战略转型中获得以下启示：坚持稳健经营和服务实体经济的基本原则，构建审慎和理性的经营文化；摒弃总量扩张的粗放型发展路径，由做大转而谋求做强；在坚持综合化经营的同时，应始终注重打造核心业务能力；在坚持国际化发展方向的同时，应突出协同效应和战略定位；找准互联网金融的切入点，加快信息化银行建设。
［关键词］后危机时代；国际大型银行；中国银行业；战略转型
［Abstract］ Based on the analysis of the external business environment and changes in industry situation of international large banks in post-crisis era, this paper summarizes the latest trends in strategic transformation of international banking sector, which include deleveraging, deinternationalization, technological innovation, cultural restructuring and improving efficiency under the guidance of “bank economics”, etc. Chinese banking sector will obtain following lessons from the new strategic transformation of European and American banks: adhering to the basic principles of prudent operation and serving real economy, creating a prudent and rational business culture; abandoning extensive development path based on total expansion and endeavoring to be strong instead of big; attaching importance to creating core competencies at the same time adhering to integrated operation; attaching importance to synergies and strategic positioning at the same time adhering to international development; finding an entry into internet finance and accelerating the construction of information bank.
［Key words］ post-crisis era; international large bank; Chinese banking sector; strategic transformation
货币错配对商业银行盈利水平的影响
宋帅邦 崔建鹏
［摘 要］ 本文在简化的资产负债表框架基础上，分析货币错配对商业银行净利润的影响，提出测度商业银行货币错配程度的新指标——BCMI。总体来看，在2005~2012年间，中国上市银行货币错配程度和汇兑损失都呈逐渐下降趋势；商业银行货币错配程度同其盈利能力之间存在明显的负相关关系。因此，建议推进人民币汇率改革时要充分考虑商业银行的承受能力；控制外汇风险敞口，加强商业银行货币错配的审慎性监管；加速发展资本市场，鼓励外汇金融衍生工具创新；废除不合理的外汇管理制度；鼓励人民币跨境交易，积极推进人民币国际化。
［关键词］ 商业银行；货币错配；盈利能力；汇率波动；BCMI指数
［Abstract］ Based on the framework of simplified balance sheet, this paper analyzes the influence of money mismatch on the net profits of commercial banks, and proposes new indicators, BCMI, to measure the degree of the money mismatch of commercial banks. Overall, the degree of the money mismatch and exchange losses of Chinese listed banks gradually declined during 2005-2012; there is a significant negative correlation between the degree of money mismatch and the profitability of commercial banks. Therefore, it is recommended to give full consideration to the bearing capacity of commercial banks when the RMB exchange rate reform is promoted, control foreign exchange risk exposure, strengthen the prudential supervision of the money mismatch of commercial banks, accelerate the development of capital markets, encourage the innovation of the financial derivative instruments of foreign exchange, abolish the unreasonable management systems of foreign exchange, encourage cross-border RMB trade, and actively promote the internationalization of RMB.
［Key words］ commercial bank; money mismatch; profitability; fluctuation in exchange rate; BCMI index
网上银行顾客感知价值对银行顾客资产的影响
王珺红 刘 洋 史 涛
［摘 要］ 本文引入顾客感知价值衡量消费者对网上银行的感知，将其分为功能价值、情感价值、社会价值、自我效能价值和感知利失五个维度，并建立结构方程模型考察它们对银行顾客资产（价值资产、品牌资产和关系资产）的影响。通过对360位网上银行用户进行问卷调查及分析发现，顾客对网上银行的情感价值、社会价值、自我效能价值这三个维度的感知与银行的品牌资产和关系资产之间具有显著的正向影响，感知利失对二者有显著的负向影响；关系资产是银行顾客资产最重要的驱动因素，商业银行应该通过提高顾客对网上银行的感知程度，来提升银行的顾客资产。
［关键词］ 网上银行；顾客感知价值；顾客资产；自我效能价值；结构方程模型
［Abstract］ This paper uses customer perceived value to measure consumer’s perception of online banking. The customer perceived values consists of functional value, emotional value, social value, egocentric self-efficacy value and perceived sacrifice. A structural equation model is constructed to analyze the influence of the customer perceived values on the customer equity of bank(value equity, brand equity and retention equity). Based on the questionnaire and analysis of 360 online banking customers, it is found that customer’s perception of the emotional value, social value, egocentric self-efficacy value of bank has significant and positive impacts on the brand equity and retention equity of bank, and perceived sacrifice has significant and negative impacts; retention equity is the most important driving factor to influence the customer equity of bank. Commercial banks should improve customer’s perception of online banking to increase customer equity.
［Key words］ online banking; customer perceived value; customer equity; egocentric self-efficacy value; structural equation model
问题银行市场退出机制信息系统架构设计研究
徐秋菊 曹利莎 张同建
［摘 要］ 问题银行市场退出是中国金融市场优化的必然方向，但中国金融市场目前并未形成规范性的问题银行市场退出路径，导致大量公共救助资金的浪费。市场退出信息系统设计是问题银行市场退出微观理论研究的关键性目标，是从操作层面构建标准化市场退出机制的突破口。信息系统的设计依托于各种决策模型，主要包括预警模型、风险等级识别模型、处置方式抉择模型、资金救助成功预测模型、资金救助成本收益均衡模型和市场退出方式抉择模型等。信息系统架构设计可以为系统的需求分析提供理论借鉴，从微观层面上促进中国问题银行市场退出机制的优化。
［关键词］问题银行；市场退出；信息系统；决策模型；数据库
［Abstract］ Market withdrawal of banks in trouble is an inevitable trend in China’s financial marketization, but the normative market withdrawal path for banks in trouble has not formed in China’s financial market, which leads to a lot of public bailout funds to be wasted. The design of the information system of market withdrawal is a critical goal of the microscopic theory research on the market withdrawal of banks in trouble and an approach to the construction of standardized market withdrawal mechanism at operational level. The design of information system relies on a variety of decision models, including early warning model, risk level identification model, disposition choice model, model for predicting the success of fund bailout, model for balancing gains with costs of fund bailout and model for choosing withdrawal path, etc. The design of information system structure can be a theoretical reference for the systemic need analysis and may promote the optimization of the market withdrawal mechanism of China’s banks in trouble at a micro-level.
［Key words］ bank in trouble; market withdrawal; information system; decision model; database
信息通讯技术、金融包容与经济增长
刘海二
［摘 要］ 本文研究信息通讯技术（ICT）与金融的结合对于拓展交易边界，提高金融包容性水平的作用。研究表明，过去20年间，ICT对中国经济增长有显著的促进作用，互联网上网人数、移动电话指标都显著促进了经济增长，并且移动电话对经济增长的促进作用大于互联网上网人数。但固定电话对经济增长的促进作用不显著，这是因为移动电话对固定电话有替代效应。进一步分析表明，ICT对经济增长的贡献主要是通过扩大交易边界，提高金融包容性水平来实现的，即通过提高人均存款与人均贷款来实现经济增长。随着ICT和金融的不断融合，未来可能出现“互联网融资模式”。
［关键词］ICT；人均存款；人均贷款；交易边界；金融包容；经济增长
［Abstract］This paper researches the role of the combination of information and communication technology (ICT) and finance in expanding transaction boundaries and improving financial inclusion. The results of the paper show that, over the past 20 years, ICT plays a significant role in promoting China’s economic growth, the indicators such as internet users and mobile phones have significantly promoted economic growth, and mobile phones do more than internet users in promoting economic growth. But fixed telephones have no significant influence on economic growth, because mobile phones have substitution effects on fixed telephones. The further analysis shows that the ICT influences economic growth mainly by expanding transaction boundaries and improving financial inclusion, i.e. increasing the per capita deposits and per capita loans. With the integration of ICT and finance, “internet financing mode” may occur in the future.
［Key words］ ICT; per capita deposit; per capita loan; transaction boundaries; financial inclusion;economic growth
次优小微企业金融培育支持系统研究
杨大光 徐敬红
［摘 要］ 破解小微企业融资难的前提是将小微企业分成优质小微企业、次优小微企业及资质欠佳小微企业三类。现阶段研究解决小微企业融资问题，应将重点放在次优小微企业群体上。政府在税收政策、法律保护等方面为次优小微企业发展提供了有利条件。商业银行开发次优小微企业金融培育系统，具有明显的客户信息资源优势和金融产品优势等。商业银行应做好企业间融资的媒介与平台、推动次优小微企业的重组整合、开展次优小微企业融资租赁业务、探索金融支持企业互助机制等途径，以开发次优小微企业金融培育支持系统。
［关键词］ 商业银行；次优小微企业；金融培育系统；小微企业融资
［Abstract］ The premise of solving difficulties in small and micro-enterprise financing is to divide small and micro-enterprises into three kinds, the high-quality, the sub-prime and the poor-quality. To solve difficulties in small and micro-enterprise financing, currently the sub-prime small and micro-enterprises are the key. Commercial banks are the main institutions to develop financial cultivation system for small and micro-enterprises, and have obvious advantages in customer information resources and financial products. Commercial banks may build media and platform for financing between enterprises, promote the reorganization and integration of sub-prime small and micro enterprises, develop financing and leasing business of sub-prime small and micro-enterprises, explore the mechanism of financial support for mutual assistance between enterprises, etc. to develop financial cultivation and support system for small and micro-enterprises.
［Key words］ commercial bank; sub-prime small and micro-enterprise; financial cultivation system; small and micro-enterprise financing