中国各省金融包容性指数及其测算
陈三毛 钱晓萍 (3)
The Financial Inclusion Indexes of Chinese Provinces and the Measurement
CHEN San-mao QIAN Xiao-ping (3)
普惠制金融对城乡居民收入差距的影响
徐 敏 张小林 (9)
The Impacts of Inclusive Finance on Urban-Rural Residents’ Income Gap
XU Min ZHANG Xiao-lin (9)
普惠金融与金融服务均衡化——以浙江与江苏两省为例
沈荣勤 (16)
Inclusive Finance and Financial Service Equalization——A Case Study of Zhejiang and Jiangsu Provinces
SHEN Rong-qin (16)
综合化经营国际银行的公司治理架构
宋翰乙 刘明坤 周 颖 (26)
The Corporate Governance Structure of Diversified International Banks
SONG Han-yi LIU Ming-kun ZHOU Ying (26)
风险投资与创业企业的博弈分析
蒋 伟 李 蓉 (35)
An Analysis of the Game of Venture Investment and Start-Up Enterprise
JIANG Wei LI Rong (35)
单个银行对系统性风险的贡献度——基于Shapley非对称权力指数的研究
成祺炯 曹前进 陈玉萍 (40)
The Contribution of Individual Bank to Systemic Risks——A Study Based on Shapley’s Asymmetric Power Index
CHENG Qi-jiong CAO Qian-jin CHEN Yu-ping (40)
中国商业银行供应链融资的风险评价研究
李晓宇 张鹏杰 (49)
A Study of the Risk Assessment of Chinese Commercial Banks’ Supply Chain Financing Banks in Trouble
LI Xiao-yu ZHANG Peng-jie (49)
银行资本质量的度量
邹传伟 陈晓文 (57)
The Measurement of Bank Capital Quality
ZOU Chuan-wei CHEN Xiao-wen (57)
商业银行贷款损失准备计提效率及其影响因素
张瑞稳 吴毓龙 (64)
The Efficiency in Loan Loss Provisions of Commercial Bank and Its Factors
ZHANG Rui-wen WU Yu-long (64)
支持向量机模型在银行客户流失预测中的应用研究
贺本岚 (70)
A Study of the Application of SVM in Prediction about Decrease in Bank’s Customers
HE Ben-lan (70)
“中国商业银行建立存款保险制度的条件和实施步骤”研讨会综述
(75)
A Summary of the Symposium on“The Conditions and Implementation of Chinese Commercial Banks to Establish Deposit Insurance System”(750)
中国各省金融包容性指数及其测算
陈三毛 钱晓萍
［摘 要］ 对于一个地区金融包容性水平的测算，已有不同的指数方案。本文在比较不同方案的基础上，利用Chakravarty和Pal指数方案测算了中国31个省市2007~2012年间金融包容性水平及其变化，实证发现，期间中国绝大部分省份的金融包容性水平都有进步，尽管进步程度不一；各个省份的金融包容性水平相差悬殊，在地区之间表现为东部居高、西部居中，而中部居下，各个省份金融包容性水平提升空间和潜力也各有差别。提升中国各省的金融包容性水平，要处理好战略与对策、全局与重点、长期与短期、传统与创新、市场与政策等多个方面的关系。
［关键词］ 金融包容性；金融包容性指数；商业银行；金融发展水平；普惠金融
［Abstract］ Various index scheme has been proposed to measure the financial inclusion level of a region. Based on the comparison of different schemes, this paper uses the Chakravarty and Pal index schemes to measure the financial inclusion levels and their changes of Chinese 31 provinces during 2007-2012. It is found that the financial inclusion levels of most provinces have risen, although the degrees are not same; there is a great disparity between the financial inclusion levels of various provinces, and the financial inclusion levels of the eastern, western and central regions are respectively high, medium and low; the space for various province to improve the level is different. To improve the level, Chinese provinces need to coordinate the relationships between strategy and countermeasures, the whole and the key parts, long term and short term, tradition and innovation, market and policy, etc.
［Key words］liberalization of interest rate; non-interest income; net interest margin; listed commercial bank
普惠制金融对城乡居民收入差距的影响
徐 敏 张小林
［摘 要］ 本文利用金融包容指数和泰尔指数分别测算普惠金融发展水平和城乡居民收入差距，运用VAR模型、协整和格兰杰检验对中国1985~2012年普惠制金融与城乡居民收入差距的关系进行分析。研究结果表明，普惠制金融发展与中国城乡居民收入差距之间存在长期的均衡关系，普惠制金融发展水平的提高能缩小城乡居民收入差距，但作用效果不明显；前者是后者的格兰杰原因，普惠制金融发展会影响居民收入差距，而城乡居民收入差距不会对普惠制金融的发展产生影响。鉴于此，必须加大金融改革力度，明晰金融机构市场定位，健全与完善普惠制金融功能。
［关键词］ 普惠制金融；城乡居民收入差距；协整检验；格兰杰因果
［Abstract］ This paper uses financial inclusion index and Theil index to estimate the level of inclusive finance development and the urban-rural residents’ income gap, and uses VAR model, co-integration test and Granger test to analyze the relationship between inclusive finance and urban-rural residents’ income gap during 1985-2012. The results of the paper show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between inclusive finance development and urban-rural residents’ income gap, and the increase in the level can reduce the gap, but the effect is not very obvious; the former is the Granger reason of the latter, inclusive finance development influences urban-rural residents’ income gap, but the gap does not influence inclusive finance development. Therefore, it’s necessary to strengthen financial reform, clarify market functions of financial institutions, and improve the functions of inclusive finance.
［Key words］ inclusive finance; urban-rural residents’ income gap; co-integration test; Granger test
普惠金融与金融服务均衡化——以浙江与江苏两省为例
沈荣勤
［摘 要］ 本文归纳和总结国内外有关金融服务均衡化的相关文献，从中提炼并设计金融服务均衡化衡量指标体系，并借鉴国外城乡金融均衡发展的典型模式、成功经验及其启示。在此基础上，系统比较、评估和衡量江浙两省当前金融服务均衡化程度，进而提出推进金融服务均衡化的相关建议：在法规层面上，健全农村金融服务法律体系；在政策层面上，激励和吸引各类金融机构“下沉”；在服务层面上，打造普惠金融服务体系；在技术层面上，大力推广和普及互联网金融；在保障层面上，建设完善的农村金融保险制度；在人才层面上，加大农村金融人才建设力度。
［关键词］ 普惠金融；金融服务均衡化；衡量指标体系；制度安排；浙江；江苏
［Abstract］ This paper summarizes domestic and foreign literatures related to financial service equalization. Based on the literatures, the paper designs an indicator system to measure financial service equalization, and extracts the typical pattern, successful experience and lessons from the overseas urban-rural financial equalization development. Then the paper compares, evaluates and measures the levels of financial service equalization of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces, and puts forward suggestions to promote financial service equalization: establishing a perfect legal system of rural financial services, encouraging financial institutions to provide services in rural areas, establishing a system of inclusive financial services, promote the development of internet finance, establishing a perfect system of rural financial insurance, strengthening the training of rural financial personnel.
［Key words］ inclusive finance; financial service equalization; measurement indicator system; system arrangement; Zhejiang; Jiangsu
综合化经营国际银行的公司治理架构
宋翰乙 刘明坤 周 颖
［摘 要］良好的公司治理架构是银行综合化经营得以平衡业务发展和风险管控的重要保障。本文通过对汇丰集团、摩根大通银行和富国银行等银行集团的案例研究发现，目前国际大型银行普遍采取金融控股公司模式，公司治理架构相对稳定，风险管理架构较为完善，业务运营以子公司为载体，以矩阵式为结构。金融控股集团应成为现阶段中国商业银行开展综合化经营的主要模式；伴随综合化经营的深入开展，中国商业银行应进一步理顺总部与子公司的关系并明确分工，建立覆盖全集团的多重风险防线；治理架构应保持适度简单，并随业务调整做出相应变革。
［关键词］综合化经营；公司治理架构；国际银行；风险管理
［Abstract］ Good corporate governance structure is an important guarantee for the diversified operation of banks to balance business development and risk control. The analysis of the cases of HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and other banking groups shows that large international banks usually adopt the mode of financial holding corporate, and have relatively-stable corporate governance structure and perfect risk management structure, their business is performed by subsidiaries in a matrix structure. Financial holding corporate may be a main mode at present for the diversified operation of Chinese commercial banks. With the development of diversified operation, Chinese banks need to define the relationship between head office and subsidiaries, clarify their respective responsibilities, and establish multiple risk-control lines that cover the whole group; their governance structure should be appropriately simple and be adjusted with business development.
［Key words］ diversified operation; corporate governance structure; international bank; risk management
风险投资与创业企业的博弈分析
蒋 伟 李 蓉
［摘 要］ 本文针对风险投资与创业企业合作的三个阶段分别建立三个博弈模型，对二者的关系进行研究。研究发现，创业企业家的私人收益是影响合作效果的重要因素。在风险资本初次投资阶段，当私人收益不足以超过隐瞒信息所付出的成本时，创业企业家会拿出高质量的项目进行融资；在继续投资阶段，风险投资方通过有效的合约设计，适度提高对创业企业家的奖励水平，以降低道德风险并实现双赢；在退出阶段，当企业发展较好时IPO是最优的方案，风险资本在获取资本增值的同时还获得声誉收益，创业企业不仅获得更大的融资平台，创业企业家也获得高额的私人收益。
［关键词］ 风险投资；风险资本；创业企业；道德风险；博弈分析
［Abstract］ This paper constructs three game models to analyze the relationships between venture investment and start-up enterprise in three stages of cooperation. It is found that entrepreneur’s private return is a key factor to influence cooperation effects. In the initial investment stage of venture capital, the entrepreneur of start-up enterprise will offer high-quality projects that need financing if the private return does not exceed the costs due to concealing information; in the continued investment stage of the capital, the venture investor designs effective contracts to increase incentive for the entrepreneur moderately so as to reduce moral hazard and achieve a win-win; in the withdrawal stage of the capital, IPO is the best scheme on condition that the enterprise develops smoothly, the venture capital obtains both appreciation and reputation benefits, the start-up enterprise obtains greater financing platforms and the entrepreneur gets high private return.
［Key words］ venture investment; venture capital; start-up enterprise ; moral hazard; game analysis
单个银行对系统性风险的贡献度——基于Shapley非对称权力指数的研究
成祺炯 曹前进 陈玉萍
［摘 要］ 本文从Shapley非对称权力指数的视角出发，利用2006~2012年16家上市银行的报表数据模拟不同外部冲击下银行的破产顺序，得出了不同阈值下银行对系统性风险的贡献度排名，排名显示除了四大商业银行之外，股份制银行对系统性风险的贡献度不容忽视。研究表明，当银行系统较脆弱时，高杠杆率的银行的系统性风险贡献度较大；当银行系统较稳定时，低杠杆率的银行的系统性风险贡献度较大；此外，资产组合的构成和规模也对系统性风险贡献度有影响。监管当局应该根据不同时期的系统稳定性进行动态宏观审慎监管，加强对股份制银行的关注。
［关键词］ 系统性风险；股份制银行；Shapley值；资产组合；金融监管
［Abstract］ From the perspective of Shapley’s asymmetric power index, this paper uses the data of 16 listed banks during 2006-2012 to simulate the bankruptcy order of banks impacted by different external shocks, and obtains the ranking of the contributions of banks to systemic risks in different thresholds. The ranking indicates that, except the four major commercial banks, the contributions of joint-stock banks to systemic risks can not be ignored. The results of the paper show that the highly-leveraged banks have greater contributions when the banking system is relatively fragile, and so do the low-leveraged banks when the banking system is relatively stable; in addition, the composition and size of the asset portfolio influence the contributions. Regulatory authorities need to implement dynamic and macro-prudential supervision according to system stability in different periods, and strengthen supervision on joint-stock banks.
［Key words］ systemic risk; joint-stock bank; Shapley value; asset portfolio; financial supervision
中国商业银行供应链融资的风险评价研究
李晓宇 张鹏杰
［摘 要］ 本文从融资企业、核心企业、第三方企业及外部风险4个方面对商业银行供应链融资进行风险评价，从供应链融资的角度考察第三方企业风险并提出风险指标，通过对融资企业及核心企业的考察，将功能相似的指标进行删减并将外部性作为独立的风险源。通过建立评价机制来衡量供应链融资风险，从而为商业银行提高信贷质量、降低坏账比例、完善供应链融资系统提供参考。为降低供应链融资过程中的风险，商业银行应建立银行间融资企业数据库和专业供应链融资平台、加强与第三方企业合作、对存贷系统的管理及对合作真实性的考察。
［关键词］商业银行；供应链融资；logistic回归；风险评价
［Abstract］ This paper assesses the risks in commercial banks’ supply chain financing in four aspects, financing enterprise, core enterprise, third-party enterprise and external risks. From the perspective of supply chain financing, the paper analyses the risks of third-party enterprise and proposes risk indicators. Based on the analysis of financing enterprise and core enterprise, the author of the paper deletes the similar indicators and takes externality as an independent source of risks. The paper establishes an evaluation mechanism to assess risks in supply chain financing, and thereby provides a reference for commercial banks to improve credit quality, reduce bad loan ratio and improve supply chain financing system. To reduce risks in supply chain financing, commercial banks need to establish the interbank databases of financing enterprise and the specialized supply chain financing platform, strengthen the cooperation with third-party enterprise, management of deposit-loan system and the investigation of cooperation authenticity.
［Key words］ commercial bank; supply chain financing; logistic regression; risk assessment
银行资本质量的度量
邹传伟 陈晓文
［摘 要］ 本文研究银行资本质量（或资本吸收损失的能力）的度量问题。基于信用风险以及对应急资本、自救债券等新型资本工具的分析表明，银行资本在持续经营条件下吸收损失的能力体现为降低银行的破产概率；银行资本在非持续经营条件下吸收损失的能力体现为降低存款者在银行破产后的损失。在金融稳定功能上，资本质量的作用与政府的金融安全网有等价关系，资本质量相当于用私人部门资源起到金融安全网的作用。鉴于金融安全网会拖累政府信用并引发银行的道德风险，在宏观审慎监管中，应该首先充分发挥资本质量的作用。
［关键词］银行资本质量；损失吸收能力；应急资本；自救债券；金融安全网
［Abstract］This paper researches the measurement of bank capital quality(or the ability of capitals to absorb loss) . The analysis based on credit risks, contingent capital, bail-in debt and other new capital instruments shows that the ability of bank capital to absorb loss on a going concern is reflected in reducing insolvency probabilities of banks, and the ability of bank capital to absorb loss on a gone concern is reflected in reducing depositors’ loss due to the insolvency of banks. With regard to financial stability, the significance of capital quality is similar to that of the financial safety net of the government, and the significance of capital quality is equivalent to that of private resources used in financial safety net. As financial safety net influences government credit and triggers the moral hazard of commercial banks, the role of capital quality in macro-prudential supervision needs to be paid attention.
［Key words］ bank capital quality; ability to absorb loss; contingent capital; bail-in debt; financial safety net
商业银行贷款损失准备计提效率及其影响因素
张瑞稳 吴毓龙
［摘 要］ 本文采用随机前沿分析方法，分析2007~2013年中国A股上市商业银行贷款损失准备计提的相对效率，并探讨计提效率的影响因素。研究发现，贷款损失准备计提的技术非效率在中国商业银行中确实存在，国有银行与股份制银行的计提效率相近，但都高于城市商业银行；银行的规模、管理水平以及监管机构的监管行为对银行贷款损失准备的计提效率有显著的正面影响；同时银行贷款损失准备的计提效率也表现出一定的顺周期性。因此，为提高贷款损失准备计提效率，应全面提高银行自身管理水平，强化对银行贷款损失准备计提的监管，完善计提方法和动态拨备计提体系。
［关键词］ 商业银行；股份制银行；贷款损失准备；计提效率
［Abstract］ This paper uses stochastic frontier analysis to research relative efficiency in loan loss provisions of Chinese A-shares listed commercial banks during 2007-2013 and factors to influence the efficiency. It is found that technical inefficiency in loan loss provisions does exist in Chinese commercial banks; state-owned banks and joint-stock banks have similar efficiency and it is better than that of city commercial banks; the bank scale, level of management and behavior of regulatory agency have significant and positive impacts on the efficiency; meanwhile, the efficiency shows pro-cyclical characteristics. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency, it’s necessary to improve the level of bank management overall, strengthen the regulation on the loan loss provisions of banks, improve calculation method for provisions and dynamic provision system.
［Key words］ commercial bank; joint-stock bank; loan loss provision; provision efficiency
支持向量机模型在银行客户流失预测中的应用研究
贺本岚
［摘 要］ 本文结合某商业银行客户流失样本数据探讨利用支持向量机模型（SVM）进行客户流失预测。结果表明，由于商业银行客户流失数据呈现出典型的不平衡特征，直接采用统计预测方法和传统的分类方法预测精度较差，而随机抽样法能通过改变数据集分布从而减小数据的不平衡性。因此，本文利用随机抽样法对支持向量机模型进行改进，并与Logistic回归模型预测效果进行比较，结果发现选取该方法能有效提升模型预测精度，且预测效果优于Logistic回归模型，能较为准确地预测，对于商业银行加强客户管理、提升核心竞争力具有重要的意义。
［关键词］ 商业银行；客户流失预测；支持向量机模型；随机抽样法
［Abstract］ This paper uses the data of the decrease in a commercial bank’s customers to research the application of support vector machine model (SVM) in prediction about the decrease in customers. The results of the paper show that, due to the typical imbalance characteristics of the data of the decrease in commercial bank’s customers, the prediction accuracy is poor if the statistical prediction method and traditional classification method are directly used, but the random sampling method can reduce the imbalance by changing the distribution of data set. Therefore, the random sampling method is used in the paper to improve the SVM model and make a comparison of prediction effects with the Logistic regression model. It is found that the method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the SVM model, and its prediction effects are better than those of the Logistic model; it predicts accurately, so it can be used by commercial banks to strengthen customer management and enhance core competitiveness.
［Key words］ commercial bank; prediction about decrease in customer; SVM model; random sampling method