互联网金融对传统金融的挑战
曹凤岐 (3)
The Challenge of Internet Finance to Traditional Finance
CAO Feng-qi (3)
利率市场化对商业银行信贷行为的影响
周 南 黎灵芝 (7)
The Influence of the Liberalization of Interest Rate on the Credit Behaviors of Commercial Banks
ZHOU Nan LI Ling-zhi (7)
利率市场化条件下大银行净利息收益能力比较
徐可达(14)
A Comparative Analysis of Large Banks under the Condition of the Liberalization of Interest Rate
XU Ke-da (14)
非利息收入对中美商业银行收益和风险的影响
孔丹凤 王 祥 (21)
The Influence of Non-Interest Income on the Earnings and Risks of Chinese and American Commercial Banks
KONG Dan-feng WANG Xiang (21)
非利息收入与城市商业银行经营绩效
陈一洪 (28)
The Non-Interest Incomes and Operational Performance of City Commercial Banks
CHEN Yi-hong (28)
人民币汇率与中美利率联动机制分析
郝中中 (35)
An Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate and the Linkage Mechanism of China-US Interest Rate
HAO Zhong-zhong(35)
信贷约束、房价与经济增长
吕江林 陈 惠 邱小安 (41)
Credit Constraints, Housing Price and Economic Growth
LV Jiang-lin CHEN Hui Qiu Xiao-an (41)
降低市场准入与缓解农户正规信贷约束
张 兵 李 丹 孟德峰 (47)
Lowering Market Threshold and Reducing Constraints on Farmer’s Regular Credits
ZHANG Bing LI Dan MENG De-feng (47)
信用评级、货币市场波动与短期融资券信用利差
梁 柱 (53)
Credit Rating, Volatility in Money Market and Credit Spread of Commercial Paper
LIANG Zhu (53)
公允价值会计与银行稳定性分析框架
张红军 彭俊伟 (60)
An Analysis Framework of Fair Value Accounting and Bank Stability
ZHANG Hong-jun PENG Jun-wei (60)
规模大的银行风险真的高吗？——基于中国上市商业银行的实证分析 (66)
刘志洋 (66)
Are the Risks of Large-Size Banks Really High?——An Empirical Analysis of Chinese Listed Commercial Banks
LIU Zhi-yang (66)
中国网络借贷信任机制研究 (73)
杨慧宇 陆岷峰 (73)
A Study of the Trust Mechanism of Chinese Internet Lending
YANG Hui-yu LU Min-feng (73)
互联网金融对传统金融的挑战
曹凤岐
［摘 要］ 以互联网支付、P2P网络借贷、第三方支付和众筹融资为代表的互联网金融是金融模式、金融理念、金融运营方法的创新。随着互联网金融的发展，未来将出现一种不同于传统间接融资和直接融资的具有革命性的新型金融，对传统金融带来很大的挑战，带来了新的竞争，同时也催生了新的合作。商业银行要尽快转型，利用自己客户、网络、信息及征信体系完善的优势，大力发展互联网金融。这将大大促进金融机构综合发展，推动传统金融企业的市场化。监管机构则要强化对互联网金融的监管，保障互联网金融健康规范发展，防范互联网金融风险。
［关键词］ 互联网金融；传统金融；互联网支付；P2P网络借贷；第三方支付
［Abstract］ Internet finance, represented by Internet payment, P2P network lending, third-party payment and crowd funding, is an innovation of financial mode, financial concept, financial operation pattern. With the development of Internet finance, a revolutionary and new type of finance, different from the traditional indirect-financing and direct-financing, will form in the future. It is a great challenge to traditional finance, and results in new competition and new cooperation. Commercial banks should promote the transition as soon as possible, and make use of advantages in customers, networks, information and perfect credit system to develop Internet finance, which will promote the development of comprehensive financial institution and the marketization of traditional financial enterprises. Regulatory institutions should strengthen the supervision of Internet finance to ensure the healthy development of Internet finance and prevent the risks of Internet finance.
［Key words］Internet finance; traditional finance; Internet payment; P2P network lending; third-party payment
利率市场化对商业银行信贷行为的影响
周 南 黎灵芝
［摘 要］ 本文在构建一个跨期的银行资产组合模型的基础上，运用面板VAR方法研究不同所有制银行的存款流失、资金成本上升和紧缩货币政策对商业银行信贷配置的动态影响。回归结果表明：紧缩货币政策会显著约束其他上市银行的信贷行为，但对国有上市银行的信贷配置影响不显著；银行间市场资金成本上扬通过“成本—利率”转嫁效应约束银行信贷，而存款资金成本上升则通过“成本—风险”转嫁效应刺激银行扩张信贷。方差分解表明：存款稳定性对国有上市银行信贷变化的贡献远不及资金成本的贡献，而资金成本和存款稳定性对其他上市银行信贷变化的贡献差异不大。
［关键词］ 商业银行；利率市场化；存款流失；资金成本；货币政策；信贷行为
［Abstract］ This paper constructs a model of the intertemporal portfolio of bank assets, and uses the panel VAR method to analyze the dynamic influence of reduction in deposits, increase in the capital costs of different ownership banks and tightening monetary policy on the credit allocation of commercial banks. The regression results show that tightening monetary policy will be significantly constrained credit behaviors of other listed banks, but the credit allocation of state-owned listed banks is not impacted; due to the “cost-interest rate” transferring effects, the increase in capital costs in interbank market constrains bank credits; and due to the “cost-risk” transferring effects, the increase in deposit costs leads to the credit expansion of banks; the variance decomposition shows that the contribution of deposit stability to the changes in the credits of listed state-owned banks is greatly less than that of capital costs; nevertheless, to the changes in the credits of other listed state-owned banks, the contribution of capital costs is not greatly different from that of deposit stability.
［Key words］ commercial bank; liberalization of interest rate; reduction in deposit; capital cost; monetary policy; credit behavior
利率市场化条件下大银行净利息收益能力比较
徐可达
［摘 要］ 评价银行净利息收益能力的国际通行指标是净利息收益率（net interest margin）而非基准利率利差，但基准利率水平与银行净利息收益能力存在关联。分析近10年国内外大银行NIM水平后表明，利率市场化并不必然导致NIM收窄，其中富国银行以立足于中小及个人客户的业务模式、稳定广泛的存款及客户基础、适时灵活的债券投资及主动负债策略，在本轮金融危机后的美国低利率周期中仍保持了可比同业最高NIM水平。综合分析富国案例及美国利率市场化进程中银行的转型，可预见中国利率市场化将使银行未来经营发生深刻转变，主动负债、风险定价、异质竞争将成为新的主题。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；净利息收益率；基准利率利差；大银行
［Abstract］ Internationally accepted indicators to evaluate the ability of banks to gain net interest income is net interest margin (NIM) rather than benchmark interest rate spreads, but there a correlation between benchmark interest rates and net interest income of banks. This paper analyzes the NIM level of domestic and foreign large banks in past 10 years, and the results show that the liberalization of interest rate does not necessarily lead to the NIM reducing; the Wells Fargo insists on the business model focusing on SME and personal business, has a stable base of deposits and extensive customers, and implements timely and flexible bond investment as well as active debt strategy, so it maintains the highest NIM level in banking sector in the American low interest rate period after the financial crisis. The comprehensive analysis of the banking restructuring in the Wells Fargo’s case and the liberalization process of the American interest rate shows it’s can be predicted that the Chinese liberalization of interest rate will make banks change the business deeply in the future, and active debt, risk pricing, heterogeneous competition will be the new subjects.
［Key words］ liberalization of interest rate; net interest margin; benchmark interest rate spread; large bank
非利息收入对中美商业银行收益和风险的影响
孔丹凤 王 祥
［摘 要］本文采用面板门限模型，基于2005~2012年中国31个省份的数据，对中国房地产市场价格与经济增长之间是否存在门限效应以及对门限值进行估计与检验。研究结果表明：从信贷约束的角度看，房价上涨对经济增长的影响存在显著的单门限效应。在信贷约束偏松的区间，房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用明显比在信贷约束偏紧的区间大，呈现非线性的区制变化。研究进一步发现，总体上中国信贷市场的约束偏紧，导致房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用受到限制。因此，中国应通过进一步完善信贷市场等方式，合理弱化信贷约束，从而改善房价对经济增长影响的效率。
［关键词］信贷市场；信贷约束； 房地产市场； 经济增长；面板门限模型
［Abstract］ This paper uses the panel threshold model and the data of China’s 31 provinces during 2005-2012 to test whether there is a threshold effect between the prices of real estate markets and the economic growth in China, and estimate the threshold value. The results of the paper show that, from the perspective of credit constraints, there is a significant single-threshold-effect in the influence of housing price rising on economic growth. In the loose range of credit constraints, the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is obviously greater than that in the tight range, and it shows a non-linear-regime change. The further research shows that the constraints in Chinese credit markets are tight on the whole, which results in the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is limited. Therefore, Chinese credit markets need to be improved, so as to reduce credit constraints and improve the efficiency in the influence of housing price on economic growth.
［Key words］ credit market; credit constraint; real estate market; economic growth; panel threshold model
非利息收入与城市商业银行经营绩效
陈一洪
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国24家大型城市商业银行2009~2013年的面板数据，分析非利息收入对其经营绩效的影响。结果表明，大型城商行非利息收入占比及多元化收入指数与经营绩效之间存在显著的线性正相关关系，大型城商行通过大力发展中间业务拓宽收入渠道，降低了盈利水平对存贷利差的依赖。对比全国性银行，大型城商行无论在盈利能力还是在可持续发展能力方面仍存在一定的差距。大型城商行需重点强化新型、高附加值中间业务拓展，以拓宽中间业务增收渠道、优化收入结构，着力提升信息技术及人才支撑，构建支持中间业务发展的良性机制。
［关键词］ 大型城市商业银行；非利息收入；经营绩效；中间业务
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of Chinese 24 large city commercial banks during 2009-2013, this paper analyses the non-interest incomes on operational performance of banks. The results of the paper show that the ratio of non-interest incomes and diversification income index have a significant, positive and linear relation with the operational performance; the large city commercial banks have reduced the dependence of profitability on deposit-loan spreads by developing intermediary business and increasing the sources of incomes. In Contrast with the nationwide banks, the large city commercial banks have weaknesses in the capacities of profitability and sustainable development. The large city commercial banks need to strengthen the development of new and high value-added intermediary business, so as to increase the sources of intermediate business income and optimize income structure, and make efforts to strengthen IT and IT personnel team, so as to build a good mechanism to support the development of intermediary business.
［Key words］ large city commercial bank; non-interest income; operational performance; intermediate business
人民币汇率与中美利率联动机制分析
郝中中
［摘 要］ 本文引入国际资本流动净额作为研究汇率与利率之间互相作用的中介。利用2005年7月至2013年12月的月度数据，构建包含人民币汇率、国际资本流动净额及中美利率差为内生变量的SVAR模型，实证分析三者之间的动态关系。研究结果表明：国际资本净额变大会引起人民币实际汇率下降但会使中美利率差加大；人民币实际汇率上升会使国际资本流动净额和中美利率差下降；中美利率差上升会使人民币实际汇率上升，而使国际资本流动净额变小。人民币实际汇率和国际资本流动净额的影响居于主导地位，而利率对两者的影响并不明显。
［关键词］ 人民币汇率；利率；中美利率差；国际资本流动净额
［Abstract］ This paper introduces net international capital flow(NICF) as the medium to analyze the interaction between exchange rate and interest rate, and uses the monthly data during July, 2005-December, 2013 to construct a SVAR model that contains endogenous variables such as RMB exchange rate, NICF and China-US interest rate spread, then empirically analyzes the dynamic relationship between the three variables. The results of the paper show that the increase in NICF will results in decrease in RMB real exchange rate and increase in China-US interest rate spread; the increase in RMB real exchange rate will results in decrease in NICF and China-US interest rate spread; the increase in China-US interest rate spread will results in increase in RMB real exchange rate and decrease in NICF. The influences of RMB real exchange rate and NICF are dominant, and the influence of interest rate on RMB real exchange rate and NICF is not significant.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; interest rate; China-US interest rate spread; net international capital flow
信贷约束、房价与经济增长
吕江林 陈 惠 邱小安
［摘 要］ 本文采用面板门限模型，基于2005~2012年中国31个省份的数据，对中国房地产市场价格与经济增长之间是否存在门限效应以及对门限值进行估计与检验。研究结果表明：从信贷约束的角度看，房价上涨对经济增长的影响存在显著的单门限效应。在信贷约束偏松的区间，房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用明显比在信贷约束偏紧的区间大，呈现非线性的区制变化。研究进一步发现，总体上中国信贷市场的约束偏紧，导致房价上涨对经济增长的促进作用受到限制。因此，中国应通过进一步完善信贷市场等方式，合理弱化信贷约束，从而改善房价对经济增长影响的效率。
［关键词］ 信贷市场；信贷约束； 房地产市场； 经济增长；面板门限模型
［Abstract］ This paper uses the panel threshold model and the data of China’s 31 provinces during 2005-2012 to test whether there is a threshold effect between the prices of real estate markets and the economic growth in China, and estimate the threshold value. The results of the paper show that, from the perspective of credit constraints, there is a significant single-threshold-effect in the influence of housing price rising on economic growth. In the loose range of credit constraints, the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is obviously greater than that in the tight range, and it shows a non-linear-regime change. The further research shows that the constraints in Chinese credit markets are tight on the whole, which results in the promotion of housing price rising on economic growth is limited. Therefore, Chinese credit markets need to be improved, so as to reduce credit constraints and improve the efficiency in the influence of housing price on economic growth.
［Key words］credit market; credit constraint; real estate market; economic growth; panel threshold model
降低市场准入与缓解农户正规信贷约束
张 兵 李 丹 孟德峰
［摘 要］ 本文基于2006～2010年农村固定观察点的数据，分析农村金融市场准入门槛降低对缓解不同类型农户信贷约束的影响，进而分析新一轮农村金融体系改革的效果。结果表明，降低农村金融市场准入门槛会显著降低中西部地区农户的信贷约束，尤其是对于一般村和富裕村的农户是如此，却显著提高了贫困村农户的信贷约束。这说明新一轮农村金融机构改革提高了有还款能力农户的信贷可获性，较好地满足了这部分农户的有效信贷需求。农村金融体系改革要放宽民间资本的准入限制，鼓励农户参与合作性组织，避免对新型农村金融机构不必要的干预。
［关键词］农村金融市场；农村金融机构改革；金融市场准入；农户；信贷约束
［Abstract］Based on the data of rural fixed investigation sites during 2006-2010, this paper analyzes the influence of lowering rural financial market threshold on reducing the constraints on various kinds of farmer’s credits, and the effects of the reform of new rural financial system. The results of the paper show that lowering the threshold can obviously reduce constraints on farmer’s credits in central and western regions, especially the farmers in ordinary villages and rich villages, but significantly increases the constraints on farmer’s credits in poor villages. The results indicate that the new reform of rural financial institutions has improved the credit availability of farmers who have ability to repay, and these farmers’ effective demands for credits are met well. It’s needed to reform the rural financial system so as to reduce the restrictions on private capitals, encourage farmers to participate in cooperative organization, and avoid unnecessary intervention in new rural financial institutions.br /> ［Key words］ rural financial market; reform of rural financial institution; financial market threshold; farmer; constraint on credit
信用评级、货币市场波动与短期融资券信用利差
梁柱
［摘 要］ 本文使用2012年9月1日至2013年12月18日发行的139只证券公司短期融资券，考察信用评级和货币市场波动对短期融资券信用利差的影响。实证研究发现，证券公司短期融资券的发行利率在2013年6月之前和之后的区间段内显著不同；在没有控制其他变量的情况下，主体评级为AAA级的短期融资券可以在市场上获得较低的信用利差，而主体评级为AA+和AA级的短期融资券的信用利差没有显著的差别；在控制其他变量的情况下，债项的主体评级不能显著地影响信用利差；与经典金融学理论预期相反的是，货币市场波动显著地负向影响信用利差。
［关键词］互证券公司；信用评级；短期融资券；信用利差：货币市场波动
［Abstract］Based on the 139 commercial papers issued by the security companies during September 1, 2012 -- December 18, 2013, this article investigates the impacts of credit rating and volatility in money market on the credit spread of commercial paper. The empirical research shows that the interest rates of commercial papers by security companies before June ,2013,are obviously different from those after June,2013; if other variables are mot controlled, the main-rating AAA commercial papers will gain low credit spreads in market ,and there is not significant difference between main-rating AA+ commercial papers and AA commercial papers ; if other variables are controlled ,the main-rating of debts can not influence the credit spreads; contrary to the classical finance expectation theory ,volatility in money market inflrences credit spreads obaiously and negatively.
［Key words］security company; credit rating；commercial paper；credit spread；volatility in money market
公允价值会计与银行稳定性分析框架
张红军 彭俊伟
［摘 要］ 本文在梳理相关成果的基础上，构建一个实证分析框架，来解释公允价值会计对银行稳定性的影响。主要结论为：2008年金融危机期间，银行的主要亏损来源是以历史成本计量的传统贷款资产；目前的实证研究还没有充足的直接证据证明公允价值资产可以更好地预警危机，但是存在着间接的证据支持这个观点，需要未来进一步深入研究；对于公允价值会计是否表现出顺周期性，实证的结果既有支持的，也有不支持的，但总体来说，支持的证据更强。因此，金融机构未来努力的方向是如何发挥公允价值会计对银行资产价值的及时披露以及对贷款拨备的计量功能。
［关键词］金融危机；公允价值会计；历史成本会计；银行稳定性；顺周期性
［Abstract］Based on the summary of the relevant researches, this paper constructs a framework for the analysis of the influence of fair value accounting on bank stability. The main conclusion of the paper is that, during the 2008 financial crisis, the main losses of banks result from the traditional loan assets that are measured by historical costs; the current empirical researches have not shown sufficient direct evidences that fair value assets can early warn crisis better, but there are indirect evidences which need to be researched further; for the view that fair value accounting is pro-cyclical, some empirical results have proven it and the others haven’t done so, but the evidences supporting for the view are more persuasive overall. Therefore, financial institutions should make efforts to utilize the function of fair value accounting in the timely disclosure of the asset values of banks and the calculation of provision for loans.
［Key words］financial crisis; fair value accounting; historical cost accounting; bank stability; pro-cyclicality
规模大的银行风险真的高吗？——基于中国上市商业银行的实证分析
刘志洋
［摘 要］ 本文采用16家中国上市商业银行2006年至2013年的年度财务数据和股票收益率日度数据，对中国上市商业银行进行实证分析。结果表明：与欧美银行业不同，中国上市商业银行的规模与银行经营整体风险、系统风险、非系统风险以及系统性风险贡献度均为显著的负相关，这表明对于中国上市商业银行，银行规模增加并不意味着银行风险的增加，大型商业银行系统性风险贡献度未必高。因此，在设计系统重要性指标时，不能仅仅考虑规模因素，有必要从其它视角而非规模因素研究中国商业银行风险增加的原因。
［关键词］商业银行；银行规模；银行风险；系统性风险；非系统性风险
［Abstract］This paper uses the annual financial data of 16 Chinese listed commercial banks and daily stock returns data during 2006-2013 to analyze the banks empirically. The results of the paper shows that the sizes of Chinese listed commercial banks, different from European and American banks, have significant and negative relations to the overall risks, systematic risks, non-systematic risks and the contribution of systematic risks of bank operation; so the increase in bank size do not mean the increase in the risks of bank, and large commercial banks do not certainly have high risks. Therefore, when the systematically important indicators are designed, size is not the only one needed to be considered, and it’s necessary to analyze the reason from other perspective rather than size why the risks of Chinese commercial banks rise.
［Key words］commercial bank; bank size; risk of bank; systemic risk; non-systematic risk
中国网络借贷信任机制研究
杨慧宇 陆岷峰
［摘 要］ 本文用社会学和制度经济学的相关理论研究信任机制的构成，在此基础上分析中国传统借贷信任机制的特征及中国现行几种网络借贷的信任机制。研究发现，由于信用环境、社会文化背景不同，中国的网络借贷信任机制不同于西方发达国家，纯粹的“线上”模式不能够满足征信需求和建立信任。于是，中国相当一部分网络借贷平台依然引入了传统的借贷信任机制，形成了“线上”和“线下”相结合的模式。基于中国现阶段的社会信用环境，可以断言，网络借贷还将在很长一段时间内依赖于传统借贷的信任机制。
［关键词］互联网金融；网络借贷；信任机制；信用环境
［Abstract］Based on the related theories of sociology and institutional economics, this paper researches the constitution of trust mechanism, and then analyzes the features of the trust mechanism of Chinese traditional lending and several trust mechanisms of current Internet lending in China. It’s found that, due to the different credit environment, social and cultural backgrounds, the trust mechanism of Chinese Internet lending is different from that of the developed Western countries, and the pure “online” mode can not meet the requirements for credit and trust. Therefore, many Internet lending platforms in China introduce the trust mechanism of traditional lending, and the mode combining “online” with “offline” is formed. Considering the current credit environment of China’s society, it can be asserted that Internet lending will rely on the trust mechanism of traditional lending in the long term.
［Key words］ Internet finance; Internet lending; trust mechanism; credit environment