强国金融的内涵及路径选择
黄志凌 (3)
The Connotation of Financial-Power Nation and the Route Selection
HUANG Zhi-ling(3)
金融租赁的风险控制体系研究
丛 林 (12)
A Study of the Risk Control System of Financial Leasing
CONG Lin (12)
货币国际化程度的准确度量
张光平 马 钧（18)
The Accurate Measure of the Degree of Currency Internationalization
ZHANG Guang-ping MA Jun (18)
第三方互联网支付对中国货币流通速度的影响
李淑锦 张小龙 (25)
The Influence of the Third-Party Internet Payment on the Velocity of Chinese Monetary Circulation
LI Shu-jin ZHANG Xiao-long (25)
货币政策影响下的会计信息是否有用？——关于会计信息对信贷决策有用性的研究
尤 苒 (34)
Is the Accounting Information Useful in the Influence of Monetary Policy? —— A Study of the Usefulness of Accounting Information in Credit Decision Making
YOU Ran (34)
利率变动对沪深港股票市场联动性的影响
马千里（42)
The Impacts of the Changes in Interest Rates on the Linkages between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets
MA Qian-li(42)
中国股票型基金经理投资业绩评价研究
邱梦圆 许 林 钱淑芳 (53)
A Study of the Evaluation of Chinese Equity Fund Managers’ Investment Performance
QIU Meng-yuan XU Lin QIAN Shu-fang (53)
中国上市公司控制权被收购的影响因素
徐妙妙 陶启智 朱翔龙 (68)
Factors to Affect the Purchase of the Stock Control of Chinese Listed Companies (68)
XU Miao-miao TAO Qi-zhi ZHU Xiang-long (68)
本刊2015年总要目 (79)
The Main Contents of FINANCE FORUM（2015）(79)
强国金融的内涵及路径选择
黄志凌
［摘 要］ 纵观全球经济金融发展历史，不同时期世界经济强国在崛起的过程中，都离不开金融的加速和推动作用。然而，目前中国金融现状与中国经济地位不相匹配。中国实施金融强国战略的核心是做强国内金融市场，尤其是构建多层次资本市场和形成有影响力的国际金融中心。而中国大型银行是实施强国金融战略的核心力量，当前应该以“支持货币全球化、金融网络全球化、金融业务全球化、金融交易全球化”为抓手，增强服务能力、风险防御能力和盈利能力，促进对外开放和两个市场的深度融合，推动贸易投资便利化，提升国际竞争能力。
［关键词］ 经济强国；金融强国战略；资本市场；人民币国际化；国际金融中心
［Abstract］ Throughout the history of the world’s economic and financial development, the rise of a world’s economic-power nation in every period needs financial acceleration and promotion. However, China’s financial status at present does not match China’s economic status. China’s core strategy of financial-power nation should be to strengthen domestic financial markets, especially to build multi-level capital markets and international and influential financial centers. China’s large banks are the key powers to implement the strategy of financial-power nation. It’s necessary for China, by means of “support the globalization of money, financial networks, financial business and financial transactions”, to enhance the capabilities of service, risk-prevention and profit-creation, stimulate opening up and the deep integration of domestic and foreign markets, promote the facilitation of trade and investment, improve international competitiveness.
［Key words］ economic-power nation; strategy of financial-power nation; capital market; RMB internationalization; international financial center
金融租赁的风险控制体系研究
丛 林
［摘 要］ 金融租赁企业的全面风险管理体系应以资产价值管理为核心，以租赁物、承租人和交易结构三个维度为基础。金融租赁公司要利用“三个维度”相互制衡、相互抵补的性质，通过组合搭配缓释各类风险因素，从而实现价值管理的核心目标；要逐步构建并不断完善自身的全面风险管理体系，包括风险控制的组织架构设计、客户评级与授信、资产投向政策、审查审议机制、风险预警管理、不良资产处置和内部控制等。
［关键词］ 金融租赁；风险控制；价值管理；全面风险管理
［Abstract］ The comprehensive risk management system of a financial leasing firm should focus on asset value management and be based on three dimensions, lease object, lessee and transaction structure. Financial leasing firms should take advantage of the characteristics, mutual restriction and mutual support, of the three dimensions, and combine the factors to reduce all risks to reach the core goal of value management; it’s needed to build their own systems of comprehensive risk management step by step and improve the systems constantly, including the organization design of risk control, customer ratings and credit, policy of asset investment, examining mechanism, risk warning management, dispose of non-performing loans, internal control, etc.
［Key words］ financial leasing; risk control; value management; comprehensive risk management
货币国际化程度的准确度量
张光平 马 钧
［摘 要］ 本文基于国际清算银行每三年公布的全球外汇即期和衍生产品日均成交数据和6月末全球外汇衍生产品留存金额数据，假设公布年份间外汇衍生产品换手率保持两个公布年份外汇衍生产品换手率的变化幅度，从而获得公布年份间年度外汇市场日均成交金额。估算结果显示，该方法比简单方法更接近金融危机前后的市场现状。这对中国准确判断人民币国际化程度的年度进展和准确预测人民币国际化今后走势都有帮助。
［关键词］ 货币国际化；外汇市场；外汇交易；外汇衍生产品
［Abstract］ Based on the average daily data of the yearly global foreign exchange(FX) spot and derivatives transactions, and the data of global retained FX derivatives on the end of June disclosed by BIS every three years, this paper assumes that the change in turnover rate of the FX derivatives in disclosure year equals that in two disclosure year, so as to gain the the average daily transaction data of yearly FX market in disclosure year. The estimation result shows that, compared with the simple method, the above method can gain a result more similar to the market situation before and after the financial crisis. It will help China accurately evaluate the yearly progress in RMB internationalization and predict the future trend of RMB internationalization.
［Key words］ internationalization of currency; FX market; FX transaction; FX derivative
第三方互联网支付对中国货币流通速度的影响
李淑锦 张小龙
［摘 要］ 本文研究第三方互联网支付对中国各层次的货币流通速度的影响。结果显示：第三方互联网支付具有增大各层次货币流通速度的作用；第三方互联网支付是各层次货币流通速度增大的格兰杰原因。央行和政府应加大对第三方互联网支付行业的监管，减小第三方互联网支付对各层次货币流通速度的不利影响。
［关键词］ 第三方互联网支付；货币流通速度；经济货币化程度
［Abstract］ This paper researches the influence of the third-party Internet payment on the velocity of Chinese monetary circulation at all levels. The results of the paper show that the third-party Internet payment has the effects to increase the velocity of monetary circulation at all levels; the third-party Internet payment is the Granger reason of the increase in the velocity of monetary circulation at all levels. The central bank and the government should strengthen the regulation on the third-party Internet payment sector, and reduce the adverse effects of the third-party Internet payment on the velocity of monetary circulation at all levels.
［Key words］ third-party Internet payment; velocity of monetary circulation; extent of monetary modernization
货币政策影响下的会计信息是否有用？——关于会计信息对信贷决策有用性的研究
尤 苒
［摘 要］ 本文以中国沪深两市A股上市公司为研究样本，探讨货币政策对会计信息在信贷决策中的有用性的影响。研究结果表明：与紧缩期相比，货币政策宽松时期的会计信息在信贷决策过程中的有用性较为显著；所有权性质差异并未在货币政策宽松时期影响会计信息的作用；货币政策紧缩时期，与国有企业相比，非国有企业融资压力加剧造成会计信息的人为扭曲，使得会计信息在银行信贷决策过程中的有用性被显著削弱。
［关键词］ 货币政策；会计信息；银行信贷；所有权性质
［Abstract］ A-share companies listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets as samples, this paper researches the influence of monetary policy on the usefulness of accounting information in credit decision making. The results of the paper show that the usefulness of accounting information in credit decision making in the period of loose monetary policy is more significant than that in the period of tight monetary policy; the difference in ownership nature does not impacts the usefulness of accounting information in the period of loose monetary policy; compared with the state-owned enterprises, the increasing difficulties of non-state-owned enterprises in financing result in the intentional distortion of accounting information which weakens the usefulness of accounting information in credit decision making of banks.
［Key words］ monetary policy; accounting information; bank credit; ownership nature
利率变动对沪深港股票市场联动性的影响
马千里
［摘 要］ 本文采用2009~2015年的数据，考察利率变动对沪深港股票市场联动性的影响。研究结果表明：沪深港股票市场具有较为显著的价格联动特征，但是从波动性上来看，沪深两市与香港股票市场的联动性较弱，且只有沪深股票市场对香港股票市场的单向影响；上海银行间同业拆放利率和美国联邦基金有效利率对沪深港股票市场均有显著的直接影响，上海银行间同业拆放利率对沪深港股票市场的影响更大；引入利率变动变量后，沪深港股票市场的波动溢出效应明显增强。
［关键词］ 利率；股票市场；价格溢出效应；波动溢出效应
［Abstract］ In this paper, the data during 2009-2015 is used to analyze the impacts of the changes in interest rates on the linkages between Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets. The results of the paper indicate that Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets show significant characteristics of price linkage, but as far as the fluctuation is concerned, the linkages between Shanghai-Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets are weak, there is only one-way impacts of Shanghai-Shenzhen stock markets on Hong Kong stock markets; there are significant and direct impacts of Shanghai interbank offered rate and the U.S. Federal Fund rate on Shanghai-Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets, and the impacts of Shanghai interbank offered rate are greater than those of the U.S. Federal Fund rate; after the variable of changes in interest rate is introduced, the spillover effects of fluctuation in Shanghai-Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets increase obviously.
［Key words］ interest rate; stock market;spillover effect of price; spillover effect of fluctuation
中国股票型基金经理投资业绩评价研究
邱梦圆 许 林 钱淑芳
［摘 要］ 本文构建了一个股票型基金的评级体系，对新《证券投资基金法》实施之后成立的29只样本基金进行实证检验，结果发现：新基金法实施之后中国开放式股票型基金竞争更加激烈，在运作过程中基金经理的投资管理能力有所提高、但业绩不稳定。基金的风险与收益之间、选股能力与择时能力之间、业绩持续性与稳定性之间存在着此消彼长的关系，选股能力较好的基金择时能力较差，而择时能力较好的基金选股能力则欠佳，只有少部分基金经理同时具备良好的选股和择时能力。
［关键词］ 基金评级；基金绩效；基金经理；因子分析法；股票型基金
［Abstract］ This paper constructs an evaluation system of equity funds, and presents an empirical test on 29 fund samples established after the implementation of the New Fund Law. The results of the paper show that the Chinese open-end funds compete more heavily after the implementation of the New Fund Law; in the operational process, the fund managers’ capabilities to manage investment has improved, but their performance is unstable. In order to promote the sound development of Chinese open-end equity funds, it’s needed to improve fund managers’ professional quality, the diversity of fund variety, the marketing and service capabilities of fund management companies.
［Key words］ fund rating; fund performance; fund manager; factor analysis; equity fund
中国上市公司控制权被收购的影响因素
徐妙妙 陶启智 朱翔龙
［摘 要］ 本文研究股权分置改革后，中国上市公司控制权被收购的影响因素。研究发现：管理效率越低、规模越小的公司，被收购的概率越大，但营运效率高的公司，更有可能成为有潜力的目标而受到主并购公司青睐；流动性越差，股权的流动性越大，股权集中度过于分散，公司被收购的可能性会随之增加；公司杠杆越高，公司越容易成为并购目标。财务比率与公司控制权被收购的概率有关，金融危机等重大事件对模型的冲击不大，没有显著改变公司控制权被收购的影响因素。
［关键词］ 控制权收购；目标公司；财务指标；股权分置改革
［Abstract］ This paper analyzes the factors to affect the purchase of the stock control of Chinese listed companies after the reform of non-traded shares. It’s found that the firms with lower management efficiency and smaller size are more probably purchased, but the firms with high operational efficiency are more likely to be potential targets and favored by acquirers; the firms with lower liquidity, greater liquidity of equity ownership and less extent of equity ownership concentration are more probably purchased; the higher the leverage of firms, the greater the probability of firms to be targets. Financial ratio is related to purchased probability; financial crisis and other major events have no significant impacts on the model, and don’t change the factors to affect the purchase of the stock control of firms.
［Key words］ purchase of stock control; target firm; financial indicator; reform of non-traded share