银行移动金融发展与货币数字化、财富积累
朱纯福 (3)
The Development of Banking Mobile Finance, Currency Digitalizing and Wealth Accumulation
ZHU Chun-fu (3)
P2P网贷平台综合竞争力评价研究
郭海凤 陈 霄 (12)
A Study of the Comprehensive Competitiveness Evaluation of P2P Network Lending Platform
GUO Hai-feng CHEN Xiao (12)
货币政策、负债融资与股权代理成本
萧松华 王院民(24)
Monetary Policy, Debt Financing and Equity Agency Costs
XIAO Song-hua WANG Yuan-min (24)
信贷周期、上市公司社会资本与债务融资
林民书 岳媛媛 (31)
Credit Cycle, Listed Company of Social Capital and Debt Financing
LIN Min-shu YUE Yuan-yuan (31)
商业银行逆周期资本缓冲机制的构建
崔 婕 沈沛龙 (38)
The Construction of Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer Mechanism of Commercial Banks
CUI Jie SHEN Pei-long (38)
商业银行“安全性、盈利性、流动性”平衡状况分析
邹 克(46)
An Analysis of the Balance among the Safety, Profitability and Liquidity of Commercial Banks
ZOU Ke(46)
金融工具国际会计准则变革及其对银行业的影响
王 婕 林桂娥 (54)
The Changes in the International Accounting Standard of Financial Instruments and Its Influence on Banking Sector
WANG Jie LIN Gui-e (54)
离岸人民币汇率价差、升贬值预期与资金存量
吴立雪 (61)
The Exchange Rate Spreads, Appreciation/Depreciation Expectation and the Capital Stock of Offshore RMB
WU Li-xue (61)
民间金融制度变迁与经济绩效
彭 佳 朱巧玲 (70)
The Vicissitudes of Private Finance System and the Economic Performance
PENG Jia ZHU Qiao-ling (70)
银行移动金融发展与货币数字化、财富积累
朱纯福
［摘 要］ 移动金融代表银行发展方向。信息技术使传统货币数字化，推动银行移动金融快速发展，也带来网络平台货币化和电子商务金融化，对银行形成压力和挑战。普惠金融有助于解决脱贫问题，而且可以引导超高储蓄流向消费和投资，改善民生，拓展财富积累新途径。未来银行将是现在银行的延续和发展。在可预期的未来几年，大型银行继续起主导作用，移动金融业务将快速发展，主要表现在：线上和线下一体化融合，成为未来银行主要运营模式；既竞争又合作，基本实现互联互通；大力发展标准化产品，提高金融产品的覆盖面和渗透率；识别客户行为，系统控制和化解风险。
［关键词］ 银行；移动金融；货币数字化；财富积累
［Abstract］ Mobile finance represents the trend of banking development. Information technology makes traditional currency digitalize, network platform create currency, and e-commerce provide financial services, which brings about pressures and challenges to banks. Inclusive finance helps solve the poverty problem, convert the ultra-high deposits into consumption and investment, improve people’s livelihood, and develop new ways of wealth accumulation. The future banks will be the continuation and development of the present banks. In the next expected few years, the large banks will still play leading roles and the mobile finance business will develop rapidly. It will be witnessed that the integration of online and offline becomes the main operating mode of the future banks; banks compete and cooperate each other, and link almost thoroughly; the standardized products are developed greatly, and the coverage and permeability are improved; the identification of customer behavior, system control and risk prevention are paid attention to.
［Key words］bank; mobile finance; currency digitizing; wealth accumulation
P2P网贷平台综合竞争力评价研究
郭海凤 陈 霄
［摘 要］ 本文构建了一个网络借贷平台的综合评价体系，使用因子分析法测算各平台的综合竞争力。研究表明：网贷平台发展存在地区差异，在综合实力的地域分布上呈现“中部塌陷”特征，西部地区金融抑制程度高、平台少，因此使得其网贷平台综合排名较高，但实际上其总体发展水平并不高；网贷平台的盈利能力是影响网贷平台综合实力的重要因素，网贷平台实行混业经营能够通过提升网贷平台的盈利水平达到范围经济，但小规模平台不应该采取多样化经营策略；由于融资成本以及网贷平台风险控制的原因，网贷平台并不能在很大程度上改善中小企业融资状况。
［关键词］ P2P；网贷平台；网络借贷；盈利能力；中小企业融资
［Abstract］ This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system of network lending platform, and uses the factor analysis to estimate the comprehensive competitiveness of platforms. It’s found that there is region differences in the development of network lending platform; the characteristics that the comprehensive competitiveness of central regions is low; the financial restraining is high and there are less platforms in the western regions, so the comprehensive ranking of the network lending platforms is high, but the overall development level is really not high; the profitability of network lending platform is an important factor to influence comprehensive strength; the comprehensive business can improve the profitability of network lending platforms and realize scope economy, but the small-size platform should not implement diversification strategy; due to the financing costs and risk control, network lending platforms can not improve the financing of SMEs to a great extent.
［Key words］ P2P; network lending platform; network lending; profitability; SME financing
货币政策、负债融资与股权代理成本
萧松华 王院民
［摘 要］ 本文基于货币政策的研究视角，利用中国上市公司2002~2012年的相关数据，结合考虑公司产权性质，研究不同货币政策环境下负债融资对股权代理成本的影响。研究发现：负债融资在紧缩货币政策下能有效减少股权代理成本，但与非国有上市公司相比，由于国有上市公司存在预算软约束和监督激励机制不完善等问题，负债融资抑制股权代理成本的效果在这些公司上较差；同时，短期负债降低股权代理成本的效果好于长期负债。因此，在紧缩性货币政策下，公司应调整融资结构，适当提高负债融资比例，特别是短期负债融资的比例，以降低股权代理成本，提升公司价值。
［关键词］ 负债融资；股权代理成本；货币政策；公司治理；公司价值
［Abstract］ From the perspectives of monetary policy and the nature of property rights of company, this paper researches the influence of debt financing on equity agency costs in different environment of monetary policy. It’s found that debt financing can effectively reduce equity agency costs while tightening monetary policy is implemented, but due to the soft-budget-constraint and the imperfect supervision and incentives mechanisms, the effect of reducing equity agency costs in the state-owned listed companies is not good compared with the non-state-owned listed companies; meanwhile, the effect of short-term debt on reducing equity agency costs is better than that of long-term debt. Therefore, while tightening monetary policy is implemented, companies should adjust financing structure, namely increasing the ratio of debt financing, especially the ratio of short-term debt financing, so as to reduce equity agency costs and increase company value.
［Key words］ debt financing; equity agency cost; monetary policy; corporate governance; company value
信贷周期、上市公司社会资本与债务融资
林民书 岳媛媛
［摘 要］本文以2007~2013年间上市的企业为样本，从公司的产权差异及其所处的信贷周期角度，利用主成分分析法，分析公司的产权差异对债务融资的作用。结果表明，社会资本使上市公司的融资行为支持关系信贷观点，公司所有权的差异显著影响其获得银行贷款的规模。结合型社会资本的融资效应更多地体现在国有公司上，而桥接型和连结型社会资本则对民营公司的作用较大；在面临债务约束时，社会资本较多的公司对信贷政策的冲击反应不敏感，这是因为治理机制的弱化干扰了政策功能的发挥。因此，政府在制定宏观调控决策时，应重点关注政策传导的微观基础。
［关键词］信贷周期；上市公司；信贷政策；社会资本；债务融资；产权差异
［Abstract］ Based on the samples of listed companies during 2007-2013 and from the perspective of difference in company property and credit cycle, this paper uses the principal component to analyze the influence of difference in company property on debt financing. The results of the paper show that, due to social capitals, the financing behaviors of listed companies support the relation-credit theory, and the difference in company ownership impacts the size of bank loans. The combining social capitals have a greater influence on state-owned companies, and the bridging and linking social capitals have a greater influence on private companies; while facing debt problems, the companies that have more social capitals are not sensitive to the shocks of credit policy, and the reason is because the weakening of governance mechanism interferes the policy effect.
［Key words］ credit cycle; listed company; credit policy; social capital; debt financing; difference in property
商业银行逆周期资本缓冲机制的构建
崔 婕 沈沛龙
［摘 要］ 本文使用中国银行业2004~2013年季度数据验证信贷/GDP指标是否能运用于中国银行业计提逆周期资本缓冲。结果表明，构建逆周期资本缓冲机制的指标信贷/GDP比值在样本期内的波动与中国银行业信贷波动情况基本一致，该指标可以充分反映此期间信贷波动的实际情况。信贷/GDP与其长期趋势偏离度（GAP）是预测中国银行业危机的有效指标。建立多元化逆周期资本监管机制，必须缓解最低资本要求的顺周期性，构建前瞻性的损失准备金计提制度，实行配套的宏观经济政策，即监管部门的逆周期政策与货币政策相互协调。
［关键词］ 商业银行；顺周期性；逆周期；资本缓冲；信贷/GDP指标；审慎监管
［Abstract］ This paper uses the quarterly data of Chinese banking sector during 2004-2013 to verify whether the indicator credits /GDP can be applied to calculate the counter-cyclical capital buffer of Chinese banking sector. The results of the paper show that the fluctuation of the value of credits /GDP as an indicator for the construction of counter-cyclical capital buffer mechanism is basically consistent with the fluctuation of the credits of Chinese banking sector in sample period, so the indicator can fully reflect the actual situation of credits in this period. The deviation between the credits /GDP and the long-term trend of credits /GDP，i.e. GAP，is an appropriate indicator to predict the risks of Chinese banking sector. To establish a diversified regulatory mechanism, it is necessary to reduce the procyclicality of minimum-capital requirement, construct prospective loss provisioning systems, and implement supporting macroeconomic policies, namely the coordination of counter-cyclical policy and monetary policy of regulatory institutions.
［Key words］ commercial bank; procyclicality;counter-cycle; capital buffer; indicator credit/GDP; prudential regulation
商业银行“安全性、盈利性、流动性”平衡状况分析
邹 克
［摘 要］ 本文基于典型相关分析的协调度模型，分析12家上市商业银行的“安全性、盈利性、流动性”平衡状况。研究结果表明，2005~2013年，12家上市商业银行“三性”协调水平逐步提高，经历了中度失调→低度失调→勉强协调→中度协调状态，但自2011年起，上市商业银行的“三性”协调水平提高趋缓甚至有所下降；总体上4家上市大型商业银行“三性”平衡管理能力相对较强；2011年后不同类型的上市商业银行之间“三性”的协调度水平相差无几。为提高“三性”平衡水平，应进一步完善商业银行资产负债管理体系，改善存贷款的行业与期限结构。
［关键词］ 商业银行；安全性；盈利性；流动性；“三性”平衡
［Abstract］ Based on the coordination degree model of canonical correlation analysis, this paper analyzes the status of the balance among the safety, profitability and liquidity (SPL) of commercial banks. The results of paper show that, during 2005-2013, the level of SPL coordination of 12 listed commercial banks gradually increased, and experienced a process of moderate disorder → low disorder → slight coordination → moderate coordination; but since 2011, the level of SPL coordination increases slowly and even declines; the capabilities of four large commercial banks to manage the SPL balance are relatively strong; after 2011, the level of the SPL coordination of different type of listed commercial bank is almost the same. To improve the level of SPL coordination, it’s necessary to further improve the management system of the asset and liability of commercial banks, and the industry and term structure of deposits and loans.
［Key words］ commercial bank; safety; profitability; liquidity; SPL balance
金融工具国际会计准则变革及其对银行业的影响
王 婕 林桂娥
［摘 要］ 《国际财务报告准则第9号——金融工具》（IFRS9）终稿对金融资产分类和计量、减值及套期会计三大板块进行了全面修订。其中关于“减值”的规定对中国银行业的影响最为重大。一是计提金融工具整个生命周期的预期损失是从未有过的全新挑战；二是新减值模型可能导致资产减值准备大幅提升；三是资本成本的提升或将导致银行面临更大的补充资本金压力。中国的商业银行应高度关注国际会计准则理事会和中国监管部门的下一步举措，及早评估IFRS9实施可能带来的多方面影响，同时应持续推进经营转型，不断强化风险管理。
［关键词］ 会计准则；金融工具；金融资产；商业银行；资产减值准备
［Abstract］ The final version of the IFRS9 makes a series of modification in three parts, classification and measurement, impairment and hedge accounting. The requirements for impairment will impact Chinese banking sector significantly. First, to account the expected credit losses of financial instruments during the lifetime is a new challenge for the banking sector. Second, the introduction of forward-looking impairment model may require more provision for the impairment. Third, the higher capital costs will force banks to replenish more capitals. The Chinese commercial banks should pay more attention to the next steps of the IASB and the related Chinese regulatory authorities, make comprehensive evaluation of the potential influence of IFRS9 as soon as possible, and meanwhile, constantly promote the transformation of business structures and strengthen risk management.
［Key words］accounting standard; financial instrument; financial asset; commercial bank, provision for asset impairment
离岸人民币汇率价差、升贬值预期与资金存量
吴立雪
［摘 要］ 本文采用VEC模型研究离岸人民币汇率价差、资金存量与升贬值预期之间的联动关系。研究发现资金存量因素是影响离岸人民币汇率价差的主要决定因素，近些年香港离岸人民币市场发展的主要原因是持续的升值预期，而离岸人民币汇率价差的变动对于升贬值预期有重要影响。本文认为对离岸人民币汇率价差的研究必不可少，升贬值预期对发展离岸人民币市场具有关键作用；应进一步寻找香港离岸人民币市场发展的长效机制，以应对未来人民币汇率双向浮动的情况；应加强对离岸人民币汇率价差的监测分析。
［关键词］人民币汇率；离岸人民币市场；离岸人民币汇率价差；资金存量
［Abstract］This paper uses the VEC model to analyze the linkage between the exchange rate spreads, appreciation/depreciation expectation and the capital stock of offshore RMB. It is found that capital stock is a major determinant to influence the exchange rate spread of offshore RMB; in recent years, the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong is mainly due to the continued appreciation expectation, and the changes in the exchange rate spreads of offshore RMB impact the appreciation/depreciation expectation greatly. It’s necessary to research the exchange rate spreads of offshore RMB. The appreciation/depreciation expectation plays a key role in the development of offshore RMB market. It is needed to search for a long-term mechanism for the development of offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, so as to cope with the future two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. It also is needed to strengthen the monitoring and analysis of the exchange rate spread of offshore RMB.
［Key words］ exchange rate; offshore RMB market; exchange rate spread of offshore RMB; capital stock
民间金融制度变迁与经济绩效
彭 佳 朱巧玲
［摘 要］ 本文从民间借贷利率的角度考察温州三次金融改革的制度变迁，分析温州民间金融制度变迁与当地民间金融组织演化、利率市场化改革和中小企业成长的关系。研究表明：民间借贷利率同银行机构基准利率走向一致，与货币政策息息相关；民间借贷利率推动利率市场化改革，消除民间利率的市场非理性有利于民间融资市场充分发挥其作为次级金融制度安排的作用。对1978~2012年温州民间金融制度变量的测度，结果显示，民间金融制度变迁每变动1%，经济增量增加5.497%，表明温州民间金融的制度变迁对当地经济增长具有促进作用。
［关键词］民间金融；温州金融改革；民间借贷利率；制度变迁；经济绩效
［Abstract］From the perspective of the interest rates of private lending, this paper investigates the system vicissitudes in the three financial reforms in Wenzhou, and analyzes the relationship between the private financial system vicissitudes in Wenzhou and the evolution of local private financial organizations, the liberalization reform of interest rates, the development of SMEs. It is found that the private lending interest rates change in a same trend with the benchmark interest rates of banking institutions , and they are closely related to monetary policy; the private lending interest rates promote the liberalization reform of interest rates; eliminating the irrationality in interest rate markets helps the private financing market fully play its role as a secondary financial system arrangements. The measurement of the private financial system variables in Wenzhou during 1978-2012 shows that, if the vicissitude in private financial system varies by 1%, the economic increments will increase by 5.497%, which means that the vicissitude in private financial system in Wenzhou promotes the local economic growth.
［Key words］private finance; Wenzhou financial reform; interest rate of private lending; vicissitude in system; economic performance