金融安全与国家利益
张红力 (3)
Financial Security and National Interests
ZHANG Hong-li (3)
银行市场集中度与银行风险承担
唐 鹏 (15)
Banking Market Concentration and Banking Risk-Taking
TANG Peng (15)
银行业市场集中度、主体异质性与中小企业信贷可获性
吴 敏 林乐芬(26)
The Banking Market Concentration, Subject Heterogeneity and SME Credit Availability
WU Min LIN Le-fen (26)
地方国有经济与城市商业银行经营审慎行为——基于中国城市商业银行的实证研究
张光利 曹廷求 (26)
Local State-Owned Economy and the Prudent Business Behaviors of City Commercial Banks——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese City Commercial Banks
ZHANG Guang-li CAO Ting-qiu (36)
存款保险对中国银行业存款结构的影响
徐 艺 李静婷 (44)
The Impacts of Deposit Insurance System on the Structure of Chinese Banking Deposits
XU Yi LI Jing-ting (44)
商业银行资本结构对流动性创造的影响
何青青 陈艺璇 曹前进 (50)
The Influence of Capital Structure on the Liquidity Creation of Commercial Banks
HE Qing-qing CHEN Yi-xuan CAO Qian-jin(50)
资本账户开放、商业银行存贷比与信贷风险
刘 刚 卢燕峰 (62)
The Capital Account Liberalization, Loan-Deposit Ratios of Commercial Banks and Credit Risks on Banking Sector
LIU Gang LU Yan-feng (62)
新型城镇化资金供需分析
牛润盛 (71)
An Analysis of the Money Supply and Demand in New Urbanization
NIU Run-sheng (71)
金融安全与国家利益
张红力
［摘 要］ 金融安全的核心是利益，在国际国内两个层面共同实现国家利益最大化，是保障金融安全的根本要义。国家利益博弈的结果取决于金融安全战略的高下，而制定国家金融安全战略，迫切需要解放思想、正本清源，正确看待三个问题：首先，金融安全不是一个纯粹技术问题，也不是被动防御的过程，不能仅用指标来进行衡量，而需要从整体的、长期的、全盘的、深远的、主动的战略角度来进行考虑、设计和实施；其次，最大化国家利益是阳谋，不是阴谋；最后，安分守己并不安全，“对外乱中有为，对内底线思维”共同构成了保障国家金融安全的核心战略思想。
［关键词］ 金融安全；国家利益；利益博弈；金融霸权
［Abstract］ The core of financial security is interests. Maximizing national interests in international and domestic levels is the fundamental meaning of financial security. The results of national interests game depend on financial security strategy. To formulate national financial security strategy urgently needs emancipating minds, thorough-going reform, and analyzing three problems correctly. First, financial security is neither a purely-technological problem nor a process of passive defense. It can not be measured only with indicators, and needs to be considered, planned and implemented from the perspectives of overall, long-term, comprehensive, far-reaching and active strategies. Second, maximizing national interests is an opening strategy, not a conspiracy. Finally, self-constraint will not result in safety; both doing something worthwhile in disorder internationally and keeping bottom-line thinking internally constitute the thinking of the core strategy to guarantee national financial security.
［Key words］financial security; national interests; interests game; financial hegemony
银行市场集中度与银行风险承担
唐 鹏
［摘 要］ 本文通过研究中国银行业市场结构，建立破产风险指数和不良贷款风险等两个冲击模型分析市场集中度与银行风险承担间的关系。研究表明：自2006年以来，中国银行业市场集中度在波动中不断降低，于2010年发生“拐点效应”，中国银行业的风险承担开始下降；银行市场结构对破产概率和不良贷款等风险承担存在显著的影响效应；中国银行业风险承担会因市场集中度增加而上升，因竞争性势力增加而减小。进一步强化银行业的竞争氛围应有利于降低风险承担；政府和金融监管部门应创造良好的经营环境，减少经济对银行风险承担的非正常冲击。
［关键词］ 银行业；市场结构；风险承担；市场集中度
［Abstract］ This paper researches the market structure of Chinese banking sector, and constructs two shock models, the bankruptcy-risk-index model and the non-performing-loan-risk model to analyze the relationship between market concentration and banking risk-taking. The results of the paper show that, since 2006, the market concentration of Chinese banking sector continued fluctuating and reducing, and reached a turning point in 2010, then the risk-taking declined; now the risk-taking of Chinese banking sector is declining; the structure of banking market significantly impacts the probability of bankruptcy, non-performing loans and other risk-takings; the risk-taking of Chinese banking sector increases due to the rise in market concentration, and decreases due to the rise in competitive powers. To strengthen banking sector competition further is needed to be conducive to reducing risk-taking. The government and regulatory authorities should create a good environment for banks to operate, and reduce the abnormal shocks of economy on banking risk-taking.
［Key words］ banking sector; market structure; risk-taking; market concentration
银行业市场集中度、主体异质性与中小企业信贷可获性
吴 敏 林乐芬
［摘 要］ 本文通过对江苏省辖区内70家商业银行分支机构的调查，实证分析银行业市场集中度、不同商业银行类型对中小企业信贷可获性的影响。实证结果表明：地方性商业银行相比全国性银行对中小企业信贷可获性有显著的正向影响；银行业市场集中度与中小企业的信贷可获性之间存在着“倒U形”关系；市场集中度对不同商业银行中小企业信贷可获性的影响具有差异；相比其他商业银行，银行业市场集中度的下降更能使农村商业银行增加中小企业的贷款比例。因此，应审慎考虑城市商业银行跨区合作的形式、发展地方性的民营金融机构来提高中小企业的信贷可获性。
［关键词］ 银行业；市场集中度；异质性；信贷可获性；中小企业
［Abstract］ Based on the surveys of 70 branches of commercial banks in Jiangsu province, this paper empirically analyzes the influences of banking market concentration and types of commercial banks on SME credit availability. The empirical results show that, compared to national banks, local commercial banks have significant and positive influence on SME credit availability; there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the banking market concentration and the SME credit availability; for different commercial banks, the influence of banking market concentration on SME credit availability is different; compared to other commercial banks, the decrease in banking market concentration results in greater increase in the SME loan ratio of rural commercial banks. Therefore, it’s needed to consider the ways of cross-region cooperation between city commercial banks prudently, and promote the development of local private financial institutions to raise the SME credit availability.
［Key words］ banking sector; market concentration; heterogeneity; credit availability; SME
地方国有经济与城市商业银行经营审慎行为——基于中国城市商业银行的实证研究
张光利 曹廷求
［摘 要］本文以2003~2012年之间中国城市商业银行作为分析对象，从地方国有经济、地方政府和政府财政三个视角，分析中国城市商业银行经营的审慎行为。研究发现，在国有经济占比越高的地区，城市商业银行经营的谨慎程度越低；地方政府对信贷资源配置的干预降低了城市商业银行经营的谨慎程度；在地方政府财政压力越大的地区，城市商业银行经营的谨慎程度也越低，因为在这些地区，地方政府对银行经营的干预也越多。为了提高城市商业银行经营的稳健程度，需要推进商业银行的改革，降低各地方政府对银行经营的干预。
［关键词］国有经济；银行谨慎行为；城市商业银行；地方政府；政府干预
［Abstract］ The Chinese city commercial banks during 2003-2012 as samples, this paper, from three perspectives, i.e. local state-owned economy, local government and local government public finance, analyzes the prudent business behaviors of Chinese city commercial banks. It is found that, the higher the state-owned economy ratio in a region is , the lower the degree of the prudent business of city commercial banks; local government’s intervention in the allocation of credit resources reduces the degree of the prudent business of city commercial banks; the greater the government’s public finance pressure in a region is, the lower the degree of the prudent business of city commercial banks, because the local government’s intervention in the business of banks in the region is greater. To improve the operational stability of city commercial banks, it’s necessary to promote the reform of commercial banks, and reduce the local government’s intervention in the business of city commercial banks.
［Key words］ state-owned economy; prudent behavior of bank; city commercial bank; local government; government’s intervention
存款保险对中国银行业存款结构的影响
徐 艺 李静婷
［摘 要］ 本文通过考察美国和日本的经验，认为存款保险制度是否会引发存款“搬家”很大程度上取决于外部制度环境设计。加入“业务密度”和“存款保险预期”两个概念的实证分析显示，在当前中国存款者的银行选择决策模式下，单纯建立存款保险制度虽然会有利于各类商业银行的存款数量提高，却不利于城市商业银行和股份制商业银行的存款份额提高，进而不利于实现银行业公平竞争。因此，在积极进行存款保险制度自身建设和完善的过程中，不应忽视对配套制度的建设，如建立过渡银行制度，加强商业银行信息披露要求，定期发布商业银行风险情况解读报告等。
［关键词］ 存款保险；中国银行业；预期；业务密度；存款结构
［Abstract］ Based on the investigation of American and Japanese experience, this paper argues whether the deposit insurance system will lead to deposits“moving” depends on the design of external institutional environment. The empirical analysis, in which two concepts“business density” and“deposit insurance” are introduced, shows that, in the current mode by which Chinese depositors select banks, though the establishment of deposit insurance system helps increase the deposits of commercial banks, it’s not conducive to the growth in the deposits share of city commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks only if the establishment of system, and then, is not conducive to the fair competition of banking sector. Therefore, while the deposit insurance system is actively established and improved, it should not be overlooked to establish supporting systems, such as the establishment of transition bank systems, strengthening requirements for the information disclosure of commercial banks and regularly publishing interpretation reports of the risks of commercial banks, etc.
［Key words］ deposit insurance; Chinese banking sector; expectation; business density; deposit structure
商业银行资本结构对流动性创造的影响
何青青 陈艺璇 曹前进
［摘 要］ 本文基于2006~2013年中国43家商业银行的相关数据，实证分析中国商业银行资本结构对流动性创造的影响。结果显示：（1）在涵盖表外业务的测度指标时，国有控股银行、股份制银行、城市商业银行的单位资产流动性创造分别为0.413、0.567和0.452。（2）中国商业银行资本结构与流动性创造总体上呈显著负相关，并主要由城市商业银行推动，表现出“金融脆弱挤出效应”；两者关系显著依赖于风险水平，且风险水平越高的银行抵消“金融脆弱挤出效应”的能力越强。因此，金融监管部门应针对银行的异质性实行差别资本监管，以充分发挥其流动性创造能力。
［关键词］ 商业银行；资本结构；流动性创造；风险水平；资本监管
［Abstract］ Based on data of 43 Chinese commercial banks during 2006-2013, this paper analyzes the influence of capital structure on the liquidity creation of commercial banks. The results of the paper show that, (1) if the measuring indicators for off-balance sheet business are considered, the liquidity creation per unit asset of state-holding banks, joint-stock banks and city commercial banks is respectively 0.413, 0.567 and 0.452; (2) the capital structure of Chinese commercial banks and the liquidity creation are significantly and negatively correlated on the whole, which is mainly driven by city commercial banks and shows a“financial fragility crowding out effect”; the relationship between the two depends on risk level, and the banks in higher-risk regions have a greater ability to offset the“financial fragility crowding out effect”. Therefore, financial regulators should implement differential capital supervision according to bank heterogeneity so as to make use of the function of capital to create liquidity.
［Key words］ commercial bank; capital structure; liquidity creation; risk level; capital supervision
资本账户开放、商业银行存贷比与信贷风险
刘 刚 卢燕峰
［摘 要］ 本文采用2006~2013年20家商业银行的动态面板数据，实证分析资本账户开放、存贷比与中国三类商业银行信贷风险的关系。实证结果显示：各类商业银行信贷风险具有一定的滞后性；四大国有商业银行中存贷比和资本账户开放度与信贷风险呈显著正相关；全国性股份制商业银行中资本账户开放度、存贷比对信贷风险具有显著影响；城市商业银行中资本账户开放度与信贷风险呈显著负相关。因此，四大国有商业银行应注意降低存贷比，全国性股份制商业银行可适当提高存贷比，城市商业银行应适当增加流动性。
［关键词］ 资本账户开放；商业银行；存贷比；信贷风险
［Abstract］ From the perspective of bank type, this paper uses the dynamic panel data of 20 commercial banks during 2006-2013 to analyze the relationships empirically between the capital account liberalization, loan-deposit ratio and the credit risks of three types of Chinese commercial banks. The empirical results indicate that, the credit risks of each type of commercial bank show a lagging feature; the loan-deposit ratio and the degree of the capital account liberalization of four state-owned commercial banks are related significantly and positively to credit risks; the degree of the capital account liberalization and loan-deposit ratio of national joint-stock commercial banks significantly influence credit risks; the capital account liberalization of city commercial banks is significantly related to credit risks. Therefore, the four state-owned commercial banks should pay attention to lower the loan-deposit ratio, and the city commercial banks should increase the liquidity.
［Key words］capital account liberalization; commercial bank; loan-deposit ratio; credit risk
新型城镇化资金供需分析
牛润盛
［摘 要］ 本文通过对新型城镇化资金供需的实证分析，得出以下结论：财政、金融对城镇化建设的正向作用显著、持续期较长，但金融创新不够，财政、金融协调欠佳，制约了正向作用的发挥；金融对城镇化的贡献较大；随着城镇化的质量提高和难度加大，财政支出、社会融资规模对城镇化建设的边际作用在减小。为了促进新型城镇化的健康可持续发展，应逐步建立和完善透明化、强约束、多元化的新型城镇化资金保障长效机制。具体建议：加快财税体制改革，提高财政资金使用效率；优化金融资源配置，构建多元化融资体系；加强政府与金融市场协作，引导社会资本参与。
［关键词］新型城镇化；资金供需；社会融资规模；金融脱媒
［Abstract］This paper presents an empirical analysis of the money supply and demand in new urbanization, and comes following conclusions that the fiscal and financial influences on urbanization are positive, significant and last long, but financial innovation is not enough and the coordination between fiscal and financial institutions is not good, which limits the positive influences; the financial influences are great; with the increase in the quality and difficulty in urbanization, the marginal influences of fiscal expenditure and social financing scale on the urbanization construction reduce. To promote the healthy and sustainable development of new urbanization, it’s necessary to establish a transparent, strong constraining, comprehensive, long-term mechanism to ensure the money for new urbanization. It’s recommended to speed up tax reform, improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure, optimize the allocation of financial resources, construct a diversified financing system, strengthen the collaboration between government and financial markets, and guide social capitals to participate in urbanization.
［Key words］ new urbanization; money supply and demand; social financing scale; financial disintermediation