关于新常态下金融改革和发展的若干问题
姜建清 吴晓灵 李 扬 吴晓求 高培勇 王一鸣 曹凤岐 宋逢明 李剑阁 (3)
On the Problems of Financial Reform and Development in New Normal
JIANG Jian-qing WU Xiao-ling LI Yang et al (3)
金融引领与“一带一路”
张红力 (8)
Financial Guidance and “One Belt, One Road”
ZHANG Hong-li (8)
经济恢复有待经济基础发生革命性突破
黄志凌(15)
Economic Recovery Needs Revolutionary Breakthrough in Economic Base
HUANG Zhi-ling (15)
利率市场化对数量型与价格型货币政策效应的影响
胡小文 章上峰 (26)
The Impacts of Interest Rate Liberalization on the Effects of Price-Based and Quantity-Based Monetary Policies
HU Xiao-wen ZHANG Shang-feng (26)
利率市场化、国债期货价格发现与风险规避功能
王 蕾 冯倩楠 (36)
The Interest Rate Liberalization, the Price-Discovery and Risk-Aversion Functions of Treasure Bond Future
WANG Lei FENG Qian-nan(36)
合同关系对零售客户消费的促进与流失影响
王文硕 张泽林 (46)
The Influence of Contractual Relationship on the Promotion and Loss of Retail Customer’s Consumption
WANG Wen-shuo ZHANG Ze-lin(46)
银行业结构、企业高管权力与企业现金持有
白 俊 姚 盛 (59)
Banking Structure, Enterprise Executive’s Power and Enterprise Cash Holdings
BAI Jun YAO Sheng (59)
省域金融结构调整与制造业结构升级
刘 飞(72)
Adjustment in Provincial Financial Structure and Manufacturing Structure Upgrading
LIU Fei (72)
关于新常态下金融改革和发展的若干问题
姜建清 吴晓灵 李 扬 吴晓求 高培勇
王一鸣 曹凤岐 宋逢明 李剑阁
编者按：中国城市金融学会常务理事会会议暨中国工商银行发展战略咨询会议于2015年2月28日在北京召开。与会的中国城市金融学会常务理事就当前的银行法制建设、宏观经济形势、新常态下的金融改革以及工商银行的发展战略等进行了深入探讨。本刊根据发言顺序对与会嘉宾的发言进行了整理和摘编，小标题为编者所加。
金融引领与“一带一路”
张红力
［摘 要］ “一带一路”将开创全面“走出去”的新局面，是实现中华民族伟大复兴的重要抓手。作为最大的时代内涵，金融不仅是经济的血液，更是时代的灵魂，不能仅仅定位于服务“一带一路”，而是应该积极发挥经验引领、专业引领、模式引领和战略引领四种引领作用。切实破题“一带一路”，需要集中国家软实力优先办好“一带一路”这件大事，用金融手段建设命运共同体，将“创新思维、创业心态”贯彻到底，保有强国思维和底线思维，用好、用活金融力量，通过商业化运作大力推进国家战略，实现更大范围、更深层次的合作共赢。
［关键词］ 金融；“一带一路”；经验引领；专业引领；模式引领；战略引领
［Abstract］ The “One Belt, One Road” strategy will make the comprehensive “going out” strategy be in a new phase, and will be an important driving force for the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation. As one of the most important industries in modern times, finance is not only the “blood” of economy, but also the “soul” of the times. Finance is not only a role in service to the“One Belt, One Road” strategy, and we should actively make use of its four functions, i.e. experience guidance, professional guidance, pattern guidance and strategy guidance. Finance is the key to start the “One Belt, One Road” strategy. We should make full use of country’s soft power to build the“One Belt, One Road”, and construct a mission community by means of finance; carry out“innovative thinking and entrepreneurial spirit” thoroughly; keep the strong-country thinking and the bottom-line thinking; make full use of financial functions; make all efforts to promote the national strategy by commercial operation, and achieve a greater-range, higher-level cooperation and win-win.
［Key words］ finance; “One Belt, One Road”; experience guidance; professional guidance; pattern guidance; strategy guidance
经济恢复有待经济基础发生革命性突破
黄志凌
［摘 要］ 2014年世界经济发展继续分化，除美国外主要经济体多显疲态。社会经济迈上一个新台阶之前，往往会出现较长时期的经济停滞甚至衰退，要突破“发展陷阱”有待于经济革命，而推动经济革命的关键因素是科技。世界经济期待四大标志性革命，即材料革命、能源革命、智能革命、效率革命。中国经济发展应做出如下战略性选择：装备制造业技术更新战略、继续领先的信息基础设施投资战略、科技创新与人力资本积累战略。实施上述战略只是适应新经济革命的重点，还必须在鼓励企业走出国门进行扩张的同时，更加重视技术水平的提升。
［关键词］ 世界经济；科技创新；材料革命；能源革命；智能革命；效率革命
［Abstract］ The world’s economic development in 2014 continues to be differentiated, and except for the American economy, most main countries’ economy is weak. Before the social economy gets up a new step, there often is a long period of stagnation or even a recession. To transcend the “development trap” needs economic revolution, and the key factor to promote the economic revolution is science and technology. The world’s economy needs four symbolic revolutions, i.e. material revolution and energy revolution, intelligent revolution and efficiency revolution. Such strategic choices should be made for Chinese economic development: the update strategy of equipment manufacturing technology, the investment strategy of the continuously-advanced information infrastructure and the strategies of the science and technology innovation and the human capital accumulation. The above strategies are only the key points for adapting to the new economic revolution. It’s also needed to encourage enterprises to go abroad to expand, and meanwhile, pay more attention to improve technology level.
［Key words］ world’s economy; science and technology innovation; material revolution; energy revolution; intelligent revolution; efficiency revolution
利率市场化对数量型与价格型货币政策效应的影响
胡小文 章上峰
［摘 要］本文构建动态随机一般均衡框架，从均衡利率上升角度分析利率市场化对数量型和价格型政策效应的影响。通过脉冲响应、参数敏感性和社会福利损失分析得到：（1）均衡利率上升减弱数量型调控宏观经济的能力；减弱价格型调控产出波动，但增强其调控通胀的能力。当前条件下数量型调控效果仍优于价格型。（2）参数敏感性分析表明价格型调控更加稳定。（3）两种货币政策下，均衡利率上升对居民社会福利基本没有影响。相对而言，价格型调控下福利损失较小。随着利率市场化的加速，中央银行需要协调搭配两种货币政策，做好数量型向价格型转变。
［关键词］利率市场化；均衡利率；动态一般均衡；数量型货币政策；价格型货币政策
［Abstract］ This paper builds a dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium framework, and from the perspective of increase in equilibrium interest rate, analyzes the impacts of interest rate liberalization on the effects of the price-based and quantity-based monetary policies. By the analyses of impulse response, parameter sensitivity and social welfare loss, it is found that: (1) the increase in equilibrium interest rate weakens the quantity-based regulation ability of macro-economy, and reduces the fluctuation in the price-based regulation of output, but enhances the ability to regulate inflation. Currently, the effects of quantity-based regulation are better than those of the price-based. (2) The analysis of parameter sensitivity shows that price-based regulation is more stable. (3) Under the conditions of the two kinds of monetary policy, the increase in equilibrium interest rate almost does not impact inhabitant’s social welfare. Relatively, the price-based regulation results in less welfare loss. With the acceleration of interest rate liberalization, the central bank needs to coordinate the two kinds of monetary policy and promote the transformation from the price-based to the quantity-based.
［Key words］ interest rate liberalization; equilibrium interest rate; dynamic and general equilibrium; quantity-based monetary policy; price-based monetary policy
利率市场化、国债期货价格发现与风险规避功能
王 蕾 冯倩楠
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国国债期货上市后的交易数据，分析国债期货价格发现功能的效果，及中国国债期货规避利率风险的功能。国债期货价格和现货价格存在长期的协整关系，并且在短期内存在双向的Granger引导关系，说明中国国债期货从合约设计和交易制度上来讲是有效的。通过对国债期货规避利率风险功能的实证分析，发现在样本内运用OLS套保模型和VAR套保模型进行套期保值的效果较好，国债期货发挥出了规避利率风险的功能。目前中国国债期货已经初步发挥了价格发现和规避利率风险的功能，这将促进中国利率市场化改革。
［关键词］ 国债期货；利率市场化；利率风险；价格发现
［Abstract］ Based on the transaction data of Chinese listed treasury bond futures, this paper analyzes the effects of the price-discovery and risk-aversion functions of Chinese listed treasury bond futures. It is found that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the future price and spot price of treasure bond, and a bi-directional Granger guide relationship in the short term, which shows that the Chinese treasury bond futures are effective as far as contract design and trading system are concerned. The empirical analysis of the risk-aversion function of treasury bond future shows that the hedging performance is relatively good if the OLS hedging model and VAR hedging model are used in the samples, which shows that the treasury bond futures have a risk-aversion function. At present, Chinese treasury bond futures begin showing the price-discovery and risk-aversion functions, which will promote the reform of Chinese interest rate liberalization.
［Key words］ treasury bond future; interest rate liberalization; interest rate risk; price discovery
合同关系对零售客户消费的促进与流失影响
王文硕 张泽林
［摘 要］ 本文基于国内大型商业银行零售客户消费行为数据，研究合同关系对零售客户消费交易购买速率和流失速率及对零售客户非合同交易的影响。研究结果表明：（1）合同关系会对客户非合同交易产生影响，这种影响通过客户交易的购买速率和流失速率得以表现，从而影响零售客户的生命周期和最终价值；（2）不同类型的合同关系对客户同类非合同交易的作用方向和强度不同，这增加了客户行为的不确定性，也增大了银行实施营销策略的难度。因此，银行在制定零售业务营销策略时，需要通盘考虑合同关系和客户属性变量对客户消费交易的影响。
［关键词］ 零售客户；营销策略；合同关系；购买速率；流失速率
［Abstract］ Based on the data of the retail customers’ consumption behaviors of the domestic large commercial banks, this paper researches the influences of contractual relationship on the purchase frequency and running-off frequency of retail customers’ consumption transaction, and on the retail customers’ non-contractual transaction. The results of the paper show that, (1) the contractual relationship affects customers’ non-contractual transaction, which is indicated by the purchase frequency and running-off frequency of customers’ transaction, so it affects retail customer’s life cycle and ultimate value; (2) for different type of contractual relationship, the direction and intensity of the influence on customer’s same kind of non-contractual transaction are not the same, which adds the uncertainty of customers’ behavior and the difficulty in implementing marketing strategy. Therefore, while the marketing strategy of retail business is made, the banks should consider the influence of the variables of contractual relationship and customer attributes on consumer’s consumption transaction.
［Key words］ retail customer; marketing strategy; contractual relationship; purchase frequency ; running-off frequency
银行业结构、企业高管权力与企业现金持有
白 俊 姚 盛
［摘 要］ 基于沪深两市A股上市公司2007~2012年的相关数据，本文研究宏观金融环境对微观企业资金配置的影响。研究发现：企业高管权力与企业现金持有成正比，这符合代理理论的解释。通过中介效应检验发现，集中的银行业结构可以改善企业融资环境、强化银行治理作用，进而降低企业现金持有水平，对高管依托权力的现金操纵行为起到一定的抑制作用，这与信息基础假说的解释相吻合，即集中的银行业结构有益于降低企业的信息不对称程度，改善企业融资环境的同时也增强了银行甄别、监督借款企业的能力。
［关键词］ 银行业结构；高管权力；现金持有；融资环境；信息基础假说
［Abstract］ Based on the data of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Markets during 2007-2012, this paper researches the influence of macro-financial environment on the micro-configuration of enterprise funds. It is found that enterprise executive’s power is positively related with enterprise cash holdings, which is consistent with the explanation of agency theory. By the intermediary effect test, it is found that a centralized banking structure can improve enterprise finance environment, and strengthen the governance function of banks, thereby reduce the level of enterprise cash holdings and restrict the executive’s cash manipulation that relies on powers, which is consistent with the explanation of information base hypothesis, i.e. a centralized banking structure helps reduce the information asymmetry of enterprises, and strengthen the ability of banks to sift and monitor the enterprises that gain loans at the same time the enterprise financing environment is improved.
［Key words］banking structure; executive’s power; cash holding; financing environment; information base hypothesis
省域金融结构调整与制造业结构升级
刘 飞
本文选取2005～2012年间4个年度的数据，运用典型相关分析方法分析各省域金融结构调整与制造业结构升级的关系。结果发现：间接融资比例与制造业中重工业行业和低能耗行业密切相关，大银行资产占比与高附加值行业密切相关。这些结果表明中国省域金融体系中银行业仍然发挥着主要融资功能，但银行业对于制造业结构升级的支持力度还不够；全球金融危机并没有对金融结构与制造业结构升级的关系产生明显影响。在新常态下，要支持制造业结构升级，银行业需要调整业务结构，同时也要充分发挥直接融资的作用。
［关键词］金融结构；省级区域；产业结构；制造业
［Abstract］Based on the four years’ data during 2005-2012, this paper uses the canonical correlation analysis to analyze the relationship between adjustment in provincial financial structure and manufacturing structure upgrading. It is found that the indirect financing ratio is closely related to the heavy industry and low power-consumption industry in manufacturing industry, and the asset ratio of big banks is closely related to high-value-added industries. The above results show that the banks in China’s provincial financial system still play a major financing role, but the support of banks for manufacturing structure upgrading is still not enough; the global financial crisis did not impact the relationship between financial structure and manufacturing industry structure upgrading. In new normal, the support for manufacturing structure upgrading needs banks to change business structure and direct financing to play a role well.
［Key words］ financial structure; provincial region; industrial structure; manufacturing industry