农村土地产权改革背景下“三农”金融服务创新的思考
张 云 (3)
A Thinking about the Financial Service Innovation for the “Three Rural Issues” under the Background of the Reform of Rural Land Ownership
ZHANG Yun (3)
加快人民币国际化，走出“美元陷阱”不得
刘瑞霞 (10)
Accelerate the Internationalization of RMB and Get Rid of the “Dollar Trap”
LIU Rui-xia(10)
金融与创新创业国家战略
程 实 罗 宁(19)
Finance and the National Strategy of Innovation and Entrepreneurship
CHENG Shi LUO Ning(19)
货币政策反应规则与房价波动的实证研究
谭政勋 陈怡君 (27)
An Empirical Study of Monetary Policy Response Rules and Housing Price Fluctuation
TAN Zheng-xun CHEN Yi-jun (27)
货币政策、影子银行规模增速与经济增长
史焕平 李泽成 (37)
Monetary Policy, Growth in Shadow Banking Scale and Economic Growth
SHI Huan-ping LI Ze-cheng (37)
货币政策、政府控制差异与国有企业债务融资
黄新建 曾 璐 (49)
Monetary Policy, Differences in Government Control and Debt Financing of State-Owned Enterprises
HUANG Xin-jian ZENG Lu (49)
人民币汇率、短期国际资本流动与资产价格
王 申 陶士贵 (59)
RMB Exchange Rate, Short-Term International Capital Flow and Asset Price
WANG Shen TAO Shi-gui (59)
利率市场化、政府介入与城市商业银行发展
李 拓 余 曼（(71)
The Liberalization of Interest Rate, Government Intervention and the Development of City Commercial Banks
LI Tuo YU Man (71)
农村土地产权改革背景下 “三农”金融服务创新的思考
张 云
［摘 要］ 新一轮农地产权制度改革对金融机构开展“三农”服务提供了难得的机遇，为金融创新提供了条件，同时也在政策制度、产品服务创新、风险管理等方面带来新挑战。农地产权改革背景下开展“三农”金融服务涉及问题较多，应按照“政府引导、市场运作、协作共赢、控险发展”的理念，从国家和金融机构层面对相关政策制度进行整体设计。
［关键词］ 农村土地产权；“三农”；金融服务；金融创新
［Abstract］ The new reform of rural land ownership offers a precious opportunity for financial institutions to provide services to the“three rural issues”, and offers aids for financial innovation, but it’s also a new challenge to policy and system, product and service innovation, risk management. Under the background of the reform of rural land ownership, financial services to the“three rural issues” concern many fields, and the relevant policies and systems should be designed systematically in the levels of country and financial institutions according to the concepts of “overnment guidance and market operation, cooperation and win-win, control-risk development”.
［Key words］ rural land ownership; “three rural issues”; financial service; financial innovation
加快人民币国际化，走出“美元陷阱”
刘瑞霞
［摘 要］ “美元陷阱”带来系统性风险，对中国带来较大的不利影响，除外汇储备的集中度风险较高外，还体现在货币政策、资本市场、汇率与石油等方面。为了走出“美元陷阱”，中国必须加快产业升级换代，做大人民币国际支付结算的经济基础 ，强化人民币交易货币功能，争取人民币成为IMF特别提款权货币，确立国际储备货币地位，推动外汇储备多元化，减少单一货币集中度风险，发展代表新兴经济体利益的国际金融组织，积极参与国际金融规则制定。
［关键词］ “美元陷阱”；人民币国际化；国际金融；货币政策；外汇储备
［Abstract］ The “dollar trap” brings in systemic risks and great negative impacts on China. In addition to high concentration risks of foreign exchange reserves, it influences the monetary policy, capital markets, exchange rates and oil markets, etc. To get rid of the “dollar trap”, China needs to speed up industrial upgrading, strengthen the economic bases of the settlement of RMB international payments, improve the function of RMB as a trading currency, make RMB become an IMF Special Drawing Rights currency, form the status of RMB as an international reserve currency, reduce the concentration risks of single currency, develop international financial organizations representatives of the benefits of emerging economies , actively participate in the formulation of international financial rules.
［Key words］ “dollar trap”; RMB internationalization; international finance; monetary policy; foreign exchange reserve
金融与创新创业国家战略
程 实 罗 宁
［摘 要］本文探讨如何利用金融手段支持“大众创业、万众创新”国家战略。贯彻“大众创业、万众创新”、实现建设创新型国家的总体目标，需要从国家战略高度构建创新创业金融支持体系的顶层设计，用好、用活金融力量，将创新思维、创业心态贯彻到底，通过金融引领推进国家战略。在实践中应以简政放权打造高效率创新创业金融市场环境，充分发挥银行金融机构支持创新创业功能，积极健全完善多层次资本市场服务创新创业，加强国际合作提升金融支持创新创业服务水平。
［关键词］金融；创新创业；国家战略；社会转型
［Abstract］ This paper discusses how to use financial tools to support the national strategy of “public entrepreneurship and innovation”. To implement the strategy of “public entrepreneurship and innovation” and reach the overall goal of building an innovative country, it’s needed to conceive of the top-level design of the financial support system for innovation and entrepreneurship, make full use of financial strength, carry out the ideas of innovation and entrepreneurship thoroughly, promote the national strategy by financial guidance. In practice, it’s needed to use the decentralization in governing to build a highly-efficient financial market environment for innovation and entrepreneurship, make full use of the function of banking institutions to support innovation and entrepreneurship, actively improve the multi-level capital markets to service innovation and entrepreneurship, strengthen international cooperation to improve the level of financial support to service innovation and entrepreneurship.
［Key words］ finance; innovation and entrepreneurship; national strategy; social transformation
货币政策反应规则与房价波动的实证研究
谭政勋 陈怡君
［摘 要］ 本文运用模型推导包含房价的最优利率规则与货币供应量规则，并进行模拟分析。研究结果表明：无论采用利率还是货币供应量进行调控，如果货币政策不对房价波动做出反应，通货膨胀率将更低，产出波动和损失函数将更小；从两个货币工具调控效果的比较来看，无论货币政策对房价波动做出反应或不做出反应，利用货币供应量进行调控时，通货膨胀率更接近于目标值，产出波动更小，损失函数也更小。
［关键词］ 利率规则；货币供应量规则；货币政策反应函数；房地产价格
［Abstract］ This paper use a model to construct the optimal interest rate rules and money supply rules concerning housing prices, and presents a simulation analysis. The results of the paper show that, whether the interest rate or money supply is used for regulation, the inflation rate will be lower, and the output fluctuations and loss function will be small if monetary policy does not respond to housing price fluctuation; according to the comparison of the regulatory effects of the two monetary tools, whether the monetary policy responds to housing price fluctuation or not, inflation rate is closer to target, output fluctuation is smaller, and function loss is also smaller when money supply is used for regulation.
［Key words］ interest rate rule; money supply rule; response function of monetary policy; real estate price
货币政策、影子银行规模增速与经济增长
史焕平 李泽成
［摘 要］ 本文通过构建包含影子银行增长率、M2增速及经济增长率的MS-VAR 模型并选取1990~2014年的年度数据进行实证研究，结果表明：两区制下，区制2中影子银行规模增速对经济增长的影响效果要大于区制1中的作用效果，即货币扩张时，影子银行规模增速减慢，对经济增长的影响较弱，而在货币紧缩时，影子银行规模增速加快，对经济增长的影响较强。
［关键词］ 影子银行；经济增长；货币政策；MS-VAR模型
［Abstract］ This paper constructs a MS-VAR model concerning shadow banking growth, M2 growth and economic growth, and uses the annual data during 1990-2014 for empirical study. The results of the paper show that, in two-regime system, the impact of the growth in shadow banking scale in regime 2 on economic growth is greater than that in regime1, which means that the reduction in growth in shadow banking scale has less influence on economic growth when the currency expands; the increase in growth in shadow banking scale has more influence on economic growth when currency deflates.
［Key words］ shadow banking; economic growth; monetary policy; MS-VAR model
货币政策、政府控制差异与国有企业债务融资
黄新建 曾 璐
［摘 要］ 结合国有企业政府控制的差异，本文以中国2006~2012年沪深两市国有上市公司季度数据为样本，研究货币政策对国有企业债务融资及效率的影响及债务融资与投资效率的相互关系。研究发现：在货币政策紧缩期，国有企业债务融资比例下降而投资效率提高；其中，中央控股企业债务融资比例比地方国有企业下降更多，而投资效率提升更快。上述研究表明，企业在进行投融资决策时，应该提前预估外部宏观货币政策的变化，政府也应减少对国有企业的干预。
［关键词］ 货币政策；政府控制差异；国有企业；债务融资；投资效率
［Abstract］ Combining with the differences in the government control of state-owned enterprises, this paper uses the quarterly data of the state-owned listed companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to research the influence of monetary policy on debt financing, the efficiency of debt financing and the relationship between debt financing and investment efficiency. It’s found that, in the period of tightening monetary policy, the debt financing of state-owned enterprises decreases and the investment efficiency is improved; the debt financing of central-government-holding enterprises decreases more than that of local state-owned enterprises, but the investment efficiency is improved faster. The above results show that enterprises should estimate the change in external macro-monetary policy in advance when they make financing decision, and the government should reduce the intervention in state-owned enterprises.
［Key words］monetary policy; difference in government control; state-owned enterprise; debt financing; investment efficiency
人民币汇率、短期国际资本流动与资产价格
王 申 陶士贵
［摘 要］ 本文运用非线性的Markov区制转换VAR模型及脉冲响应分析，研究不同经济状态下汇率、短期国际资本流动及股价和房价之间的非线性动态关系。结果表明：不同区制下，变量间的动态关系不同。汇率升值诱使短期国际资本流入，短期国际资本流入会引起汇率升值；短期国际资本流入规模增加推动股价和房价上涨，而股价和房价上涨导致后期国际资本流出。为更好应对短期资本冲击，保持汇率和资本市场的稳定，应加强对短期国际资本流动的监控。
［关键词］人民币汇率；短期国际资本；资产价格；MS-VAR
［Abstract］This paper uses the nonlinear Markov Regime Switching VAR model and impulse response analysis to research the nonlinear and dynamic relationship among exchange rate, short-term international capital flow, stock price and housing price. The results of the paper show that the dynamic relationships varies among variables. Increase in exchange rate causes the inflow of short-term international capital, and the inflow of short-term international capital causes the increase in exchange rate; the increase in the scale of the inflow of short-term international capital promotes the increases in stock price and housing price, and the the increases in stock price and housing price causes the outflow of short-term international capital later on. To cope with the impacts of short-term capitals well and maintain steady exchange rates and capital markets, it’s needed to strengthen the monitoring of short-term international capital flow.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; short-term international capital; asset price; MS-VAR
利率市场化、政府介入与城市商业银行发展
李 拓 余 曼
［摘 要］ 本文运用中国22家城市商业银行2008~2013年的数据，从股权结构、股权制衡及财政支持角度实证分析利率市场化条件下地方政府持股及财政支持对城市商业银行规模及效率的影响。结果表明，政府持股有利于城商行规模扩张，但不利于其效率进步；政府财政支持能有效促进城商行规模扩张；利率市场化对城商行发展的影响主要表现为直接作用。
［关键词］城市商业银行； 利率市场化； 地方政府；财政支持；股权结构
［Abstract］Based on the the data of Chinese 22 city commercial banks during 2008-2013, this paper, from the perspectives of equity structure, equity balance and public finance support, empirically analyzes the influence of local government shareholding and public finance support on the sizes and efficiency of city commercial banks. The results of the paper show that government shareholding is conducive to the increase in the sizes of city commercial banks, but is not conducive to the improvement in efficiency; the public finance support of government can efficiently promote the increase in the sizes of city commercial banks; the influence of the liberalization of interest rate is mainly direct impact.
［Key words］ city commercial bank; liberalization of interest rate; local government; public finance support; equity structure