债务率与经济周期的关系
贺力平 谈 俊 (3)
The Relationship between Debt Rate and Economic Cycle
HE Li-ping Tan Jun (3)
环境治理投入与银行资产质量——基于绿色信贷视角的分析
王晓娆 (12)
Environmental Improvement Investment and Quality of Bank Assets——An Analysis Based on Green Credit
WANG Xiao-rao (12)
京津冀区域金融集聚的空间溢出效应及影响路径
李延军 李海月 史笑迎 (20)
The Spatial Spillover Effects and Influence Pathway of Financial Agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
LI Yan-jun LI Hai-yue SHI Xiao-ying (20)
银行抗逆力的指标构建及因素分析——基于主动风险管理的新视角
徐 欣 华桂宏 成春林 (30)
An Analysis of the Index Construction and Protective Factors of Bank Resilience——The New Perspective from the Active Risk Management
XU Xin HUA Gui-hong CHENG Chun-lin (30)
宏观经济波动、信用倾向与中小企业融资方式——基于中小上市公司的实证分析
胡国晖 袁静茹 (42)
Fluctuation in Macroeconomy, Credit Preference and SME Financing Mode——An Empirical Analysis Based on Listed SMEs
HU Guo-hui YUAN Jing-ru (42)
互联网金融理财产品收益率的影响因素
林文生 张正扬（52)
Factors to Impact the Yield of Internet Wealth Management Products
LIN Wen-sheng ZHANG Zheng-yang (52)
信息传递、公司结构与股票收益可预测性——基于有限注意的视角
苗鑫民 孙英隽 (61)
Information Transmission, Company Structure and Predictability of Stock Return——From the Perspective of Limited Attention
Miao Xin-min Sun Ying-jun (61)
中国股票市场的惯性效应——基于指数分级基金视角的研究
邹朋飞 李 涛 (72)
The Inertial Effects of Chinese Stock Markets——A Research from the Perspective of Index Classification Funds
ZOU Peng-fei LI Tao (72)
债务率与经济周期的关系
贺力平 谈 俊
［摘 要］ 企业部门债务率呈现周期性变化，其内在基本因素是盈利预期与融资成本之间的不平衡变动。近年来中国经济下行过程中企业部门负债率出现的逆周期持续上升的情况，既有积极意义，也蕴涵着一定的风险。较为理想的情形是杠杆率以相对平缓的节奏下行调整，即以“软着陆”方式实现杠杆率逐渐下降。具体建议包括：推动供给侧结构性改革，维持国内市场利率基本稳定，发展企业股权市场，提供风险提示，加强宏观审慎管理等。
［关键词］ 债务率；经济周期；金融周期；杠杆率；供给侧结构性改革
［Abstract］ The debt rate of enterprises changes cyclically, and its intrinsic and basic factor is the variation imbalance between profit expectation and financing cost. In recent years, the counter-cyclical continuing rise in debt rate of enterprises in the process of China’s economic downturn is positive but also contains significant risks. The ideal situation is that the leverage rate goes down in a relatively-gentle rhythm, that is a“soft landing” approach to achieve a gradual decline in leverage. The suggested policies include: to promote structural reform in supply side; to maintain the stability of interest rates in domestic markets; to develop enterprise equity markets; issue risk warning; to strengthen macro-prudential management, etc.
［Key words］ debt rate; economic cycle; financial cycle; leverage rate; structural reform in supply side
环境治理投入与银行资产质量——基于绿色信贷视角的分析
王晓娆
［摘 要］ 本文采用中国31个省市区2005~2013年环境治理投入与银行不良贷款的数据，研究环境治理投入与银行资产质量之间的关系。结论表明：随着环境治理投入的增加，银行的不良贷款率下降，银行资产质量得到提升。这表明工业污染的治理不仅是一种社会责任的体现，而且与银行切身利益相关，加大对绿色经济领域的信贷投放已成为商业银行的必然选择。
［关键词］ 商业银行；绿色信贷；资产质量；环境治理；循环经济
［Abstract］ In this paper, the data of the environmental improvement investment and banking non-performing loans (NPL) of China’s 31 provinces during 2005-2013 are used to analyze the relationship between environmental improvement investment and the quality of bank assets. The conclusions of the paper show that the banking NPL ratio goes down and the quality of bank assets is improved with the increase in environmental improvement investment, which indicates that industrial pollution treatment is not only a social responsibility, but also related to the vital benefits of banks, and increasing credits for green economy is an inevitable choice for commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; green credit; asset quality; environmental improvement; circular economy
京津冀区域金融集聚的空间溢出效应及影响路径
李延军 李海月 史笑迎
［摘 要］ 本文研究京津冀区域金融集聚对经济增长的空间溢出效应和影响路径。研究表明：样本期内京津冀区域金融集聚存在比较显著的空间溢出效应，其溢出效应影响路径主要有：金融规模和金融效率，其中金融集聚通过金融效率对经济增长的空间溢出效应大于金融集聚通过金融规模对经济增长的空间溢出效应。因此，京津冀区域在扩大金融规模的同时应大力提升金融效率，加强区域金融协同发展，以保证区域整体经济的快速发展。
［关键词］ 京津冀区域；金融集聚；空间溢出效应；区域协同发展；经济增长
［Abstract］ This paper presents an analysis of the spatial spillover effects of financial agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on economic growth and the influence pathway. The results of the paper show there is significant spatial spillover effects of financial agglomeration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the sample period; the main influence pathways of the effects include financial scale and financial efficiency, and the spatial spillover effects of financial agglomeration by the pathway of financial efficiency on economic growth are greater than those by the pathway of financial scale. Therefore, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should not only enlarge the financial scale but also improve financial efficiency and strengthen the coordinated development of regional finance so as to ensure the rapid development of regional economy as a whole.
［Key words］Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; financial agglomeration; spatial spillover effect; regional coordinated develo-pment; economic growth
银行抗逆力的指标构建及因素分析——基于主动风险管理的新视角
徐 欣 华桂宏 成春林
［摘 要］ 本文根据抗逆力的经济学解释和保护性因素的选择构建银行抗逆力的综合指标体系，并通过熵权模糊综合评价法对中国16家上市银行2008~2014年的抗逆力水平进行实证分析，总结银行抗逆力的动态发展规律。本文的结论表明：减少行政干预、明确风险偏好、选择恰当的保护因素切入点、提倡多领域金融创新等政策可以有效提高银行抗逆力水平，实现风险管理内生性和积极性。
［关键词］ 银行抗逆力；主动风险管理；熵权模糊综合评价
［Abstract］ Based on the economic explanation and selection of the protective factors of resilience, the author of this paper constructs a comprehensive index system of bank resilience, uses the entropy weighted-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to presents an empirical analysis of the resilience level of Chinese 16 listed banks during 2008-2014, and summarizes the dynamic development law of bank resilience. The conclusions of the paper show it can improve the level of bank resilience effectively and help result in endogenous and active risk management to reduce administrative intervention, define risk preference, choose appropriate ways for protective factors, promote financial innovation in various fields and other policies.
［Key words］ bank resilience; active risk management; entropy weighted-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
宏观经济波动、信用倾向与中小企业融资方式——基于中小上市公司的实证分析
胡国晖 袁静茹
［摘 要］ 本文利用2004~2014年中小上市公司的非平衡面板数据进行实证分析，结果表明：在经济下行期，中小企业获得的银行信贷严重下滑，而商业信贷与民间借贷显著上升，显示后两者对银行信贷存在替代性，且商业信贷的替代作用较大。另外，不同信用倾向企业的替代效应有所差异，信用倾向低的中小企业面临银行信贷减少的冲击更大，其利用商业信贷进行替代性融资的程度也更高，但信用倾向对其获得民间借贷的影响不显著。
［关键词］ 中小企业；融资方式；信用倾向；银行信贷；商业信贷；民间借贷
［Abstract］In this paper, the unbalanced panel data of listed SMEs during 2004-2014 are used for the empirical analysis. The conclusions of the paper show that: the bank credits of SMEs decline greatly but the commercial credits and private lending increase significantly, which indicates the commercial credits and private lending play a substituting role to bank credits, and the substituting effect of commercial credits is greater relatively. In addition, the substituting effect varies in enterprises with different credit preference; the low-credit-preference SMEs are impacted more by decrease in bank credits, and they more possibly make use of the commercial credits for substituting financing, but the influence of credit preference on gaining private lending is not significant.
［Key words］ SME; financing mode; credit preference; bank credit; commercial credit; private lending
互联网金融理财产品收益率的影响因素
林文生 张正扬
［摘 要］ 本文借助面板数据的随机效应和可行广义最小二乘法（FGLS）回归方法研究互联网金融理财产品收益率的主要影响因素。研究结论表明，SHIBOR、股票市场、债券市场、理财产品基金规模、季节变化都对理财产品收益率具有不同程度的显著影响，其中，理财产品基金规模对收益率的影响具有非线性特征。
［关键词］ 互联网金融；理财产品；收益率；股票市场；债券市场；SHIBOR
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the random effects and feasible generalized least squares(FGLS) regression of panel data to analyze the main factors to impact the yield of Internet wealth management products. The conclusions of the paper show that the SHIBOR, stock market, bond market, scale of wealth management product fund, and season change have significant effects on the yield of wealth management products, and the impact of the scale of wealth management product fund on yield shows a nonlinear feature.
［Key words］ Internet finance; wealth management product; yield; stock market; bond market; SHIBOR
信息传递、公司结构与股票收益可预测性——基于有限注意的视角
苗鑫民 孙英隽
［摘 要］ 本文基于2007~2015年A股上市公司的相关数据，分别构建投资组合和股票收益的预测指标，研究投资者有限注意影响股票价格的内在机制。研究发现，面对同样的行业利好（利空）消息，股价的反映效率会受公司结构的影响，以此逻辑构建的对冲组合可实现无风险套利。基于此性质进一步建立可预测股票收益的先行指标并进行检验，结果表明：先行指标的预测效果是由投资者有限注意所引起的，不受个股或者行业的影响；并且其预测能力与股票的关注程度、机构投资者占比、盈利水平显著负相关，与公司结构多样性程度显著正相关。
［关键词］ 有限注意；信息传递；公司结构；股票收益；可预测性
［Abstract］ Based on the data of A-share listed companies during 2007-2015, the authors of this paper construct the prediction indicators of investment portfolio and stock return respectively to analyze the intrinsic mechanism of investor’s limited attention affecting stock price. It is found that the reaction efficiency of stock price to good or bad news is impacted by company structure, and hedge portfolio based on the logic can achieve risk-free arbitrage. According to the above logic, the leading indicators can be constructed to predict stock returns and be tested. The results of the paper show that the prediction effect of the leading indicators is due to the investor’s limited attention and is not impacted by individual stock or industry, and their prediction ability is negatively related to the attention degree of stock, ratio of institutional investors and profitability level, and positively related to the degree of company structure diversity.
［Key words］ limited attention; information transmission; company structure; stock return; predictability
中国股票市场的惯性效应——基于指数分级基金视角的研究
邹朋飞 李 涛
［摘 要］ 本文以国内指数分级基金为样本，采用技术分析方法来判断指数分级基金所标的指数的短期趋势，利用分级基金的杠杆，证明中国股票市场的确存在短期的惯性效应；运用CAPM模型以及Fama-French三因子模型对超额收益进行风险调整后，发现存在与短期趋势相关的异常收益，价值型基金的收益要优于成长型基金，中小规模基金的收益要优于大规模基金。
［关键词］ 中国股票市场；惯性效应；指数分级基金；超额收益；资产定价模型
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the domestic index classification funds as samples and technological analysis method to determine the short-term trend of benchmark indexes based on index classification funds, and use the leverage features of index classification funds to prove the existence of short-term inertia effects in Chinese stock markets. Based on the CAPM model and Fama-French three-factor model, the authors adjust the risks of excess returns and find the abnormal returns relating to short-term trend. It’s also found that the returns of value-based funds are better than those of growth-based funds, and those of small and medium-sized funds are better than those of large-scale funds.
［Key words］ Chinese stock market; inertia effect; index classification fund; excess return; asset pricing model