中国经济下一阶段增长的动力
赵锡军 (3)
The Engine of China's Economic Growth in the Next Stage
ZHAO Xi-jun (3)
再造投贷联动文化与商业银行转型
李 峰 (6)
Reconstructing the Culture of Investment-Loan Linkage and the Transformation of Commercial Banks
LI Feng (6)
碳金融业务对中国商业银行储蓄业务的影响
刘俊健 刘纪显 (15)
The Impacts of Carbon Finance Business on the Deposit Business of Chinese Commercial Banks
LIU Jun-jian LIU Ji-xian (15)
基于自由裁量贷款损失准备的经理自主权行为分析
张瑞稳 李丹丹 (30)
An Analysis of Managerial Discretion Behavior Based on Discretionary Loan Loss Provision
ZHANG Rui-wen LI Dan-dan (30)
经常账户失衡与中国货币政策规则
石 峰 (40)
Current Account Imbalance and Rules of China’s Monetary Policy
SHI Feng (40)
外汇交易视角下人民币国际化的路径——基于社会网络分析方法的研究
方俊智 陈俊营 李忻蔚（49)
The Pathway of RMB Internationalization from the Perspective of Foreign Exchange——A Research Based on Social Network Analysis
FANG Jun-zhi CHEN Jun-ying LI Xin-wei (49)
融资融券失衡对股价波动性的影响
虞一青 刘 嫦 赖登凌 (60)
The Impacts of Unbalanced Margin Trading on Fluctuation in Stock Price
YU Yi-qing LIU Chang LAI Deng-ling (60)
文化与金融融合发展的风险传导效应
陈 广 水心勇 (70)
Risk Transmission Effects of Integration Development of Culture and Finance
CHEN Guang SHUI Xin-yong (70)
本刊2016年总目录 (70)
The Contents of FINANCE FORUM （2016） (79)
中国经济下一阶段增长的动力
赵锡军
［摘 要］ 中国在20世纪70、80年代进行的农村经济改革和城市工业领域的改革取得了举世瞩目的成效。总体看来，这两轮改革有一个共性，就是进行供给方面的改革，改变以往的农产品和消费品的生产供应方式，形成更加灵活的市场化的供应方式，从而使得生产供应迅速扩张，不仅满足国内需求，还出口国际市场。笔者认为中国经济下一步增长的动力来自于公共服务领域。
［关键词］ 中国方案；经济增长；改革；公共服务
［Abstract］ The reforms in China’s rural economy and urban industry in 1970s and 1980s have achieved remarkable results. The two reforms have a common feature, that is, to reform the supply so as to change the past modes of the production and supply of agricultural products and consumer goods, and form a more flexible market-oriented supply mode, so that the production supply rapidly expands and not only meets the domestic demands, but is exported to international markets. The engine of China’s economic growth in the next stage exists in public service sector.
［Key words］ China program; economic growth; reform; public service
再造投贷联动文化与商业银行转型
李 峰
［摘 要］ 当前，商业银行的传统信贷业务正在遭遇资产荒、存款荒和收入荒，还面临着不良资产压力居高不下、市场竞争压力与日俱增、经营转型迫在眉睫这三大压力。与此同时，投贷联动作为商业银行特有的经营模式，发展前景广阔，是商业银行投行业务发展的必然选择。投贷联动文化再造应着力形成差异化风控体系。在具体实践中，银行投行部门应着重考虑从客户选择、业务模式、盈利模式和股债结构等方面推动投贷联动实践。此外，投贷联动文化再造和实践推进还需要相关政策的支持。
［关键词］ 商业银行；投资银行；投贷联动；信贷文化
［Abstract］ At present, the traditional credit business of commercial banks is experiencing the shortages of assets, deposits and income. It is also facing the pressures of high non-performing assets, increasing market competition and imminent business transformation. At the same time, the investment-loan linkage as a specific business mode of commercial banks has a broad development prospect and is an inevitable choice of commercial banks to develop investment banking business. Reconstructing the cultural of investment-loan linkage should be focused on forming differentiated risk-control system. In practice, the investment banking departments of banks should focus on the choice of customers, business mode, profit mode and the structure of shares and bonds to promote the practice of investment-loan linkage. In addition, reconstructing the cultural of investment-loan linkage and promoting the practice need the support of relevant policies.
［Key words］ commercial bank; investment banking; investment-loan linkage; credit culture
碳金融业务对中国商业银行储蓄业务的影响
刘俊健 刘纪显
［摘 要］ 本文构建一个多部门的DSGE模型，并运用贝叶斯估计、脉冲响应分析、反事实仿真分析和历史分解等方法分析商业银行推行碳金融业务对其储蓄业务的影响。研究结果表明，商业银行开展的碳金融业务有利于优化银行储蓄业务，与其配合实施的有力措施包括：政府可适当提高碳排放配额价格，或适当采用宽松的货币政策或积极的有针对性的财政政策；银行则可适当放宽对非耐心家庭的贷款价值比要求，间接支持厂商进行技术改进。
［关键词］ 碳金融业务；储蓄业务；绿色结构性存款；商业银行；DSGE模型
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper construct a multi-sectoral DSGE model and use the Bayesian estimation, impulse response analysis, counter-factual simulation analysis and historical decomposition to analyze the impacts of carbon finance business of commercial banks on theirs deposit business. The results of the paper show that the carbon finance business of commercial banks is conducive to optimizing their deposit business, and the implemented promoting measures include: the government raises the price of carbon emission quota appropriately, or implements loose monetary policy or positive and targeted fiscal policy appropriately; the banks reduce the requirement for the ratio of loan to value of non-patient households appropriately so as to support the technological improvements of manufacturers indirectly.
［Key words］carbon finance business; deposit business; green structured deposit; commercial bank; DSGE model
基于自由裁量贷款损失准备的经理自主权行为分析
张瑞稳 李丹丹
［摘 要］ 本文以中国16家上市商业银行为研究对象，以自由裁量贷款损失准备为经理自主权的代理变量，分析中国商业银行经理人员在计提贷款损失准备方面的自主权行为。实证结果表明存在使用自由裁量贷款损失准备调整资本充足率和盈余管理的行为，银行还使用其来缓解风险和融资压力；银行经理人员主观感知到的经济下行和监管压力对自由裁量贷款损失准备有显著影响，经理人员在感知到经济下行后会减少计提自由裁量贷款损失准备，这在一定程度上缓解了贷款损失准备计提的顺周期性。
［关键词］ 商业银行；自由裁量贷款损失准备；经理自主权；资本充足率；盈余管理
［Abstract］ In this paper, the 16 listed commercial banks in China are used as samples and the discretionary loan loss provision is used as the proxy variable of managerial discretion to analyze the managerial discretion behavior in loan loss provision of Chinese commercial banks. The empirical results of the paper show the behavior that the discretionary loan loss provision is used to adjust the capital adequacy ratio and earnings management exits in banks, and the discretionary loan loss provision is also used to mitigate risks and financing pressure; the economic downturn and regulatory pressures perceived by bank managers have significant impacts on discretionary loan loss provision, and the managers will reduce the discretionary loan loss provision when they perceive the economic downturn, which mitigates the pro-cyclical feature of loan loss provision to some extent.
［Key words］ commercial bank; discretionary loan loss provision; managerial discretion; capital adequacy ratio; earnings management
经常账户失衡与中国货币政策规则
石 峰
［摘 要］ 本文利用两国开放经济的动态随机一般均衡模型，估计中国的货币政策规则，分析中国宏观经济波动的主要特征，结论表明：（1）中国央行的货币政策明显考虑了人民币汇率波动，而美联储的货币政策并不针对汇率波动进行调整。（2）政府支出冲击和技术进步冲击不仅是中国经济长期增长的主要动力，还是导致中国短期经济波动的重要因素。（3）中国PPI通胀主要源自于国内厂商技术水平变化，外国技术水平和货币政策则是影响CPI通胀的重要因素。（4）中美两国技术进步等实际经济变量是影响中国经常账户盈余的主要因素。
［关键词］ 两国开放经济；经常账户失衡；货币政策规则；动态随机一般均衡模型；贝叶斯估计
［Abstract］The author of this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a two-country open economy to estimate China’s monetary policy rules and analyze the main features of China’s macroeconomic fluctuation. The results of the paper show that: (1) the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate has been taken into account in the monetary policies of China’s central bank, and the Fed’s monetary policy does not adjust according to the fluctuation in exchange rate; (2) the impacts of government spending and technological progress are not only the main drivers of China’s long-term economic growth, but also the important factors leading to China’s short-term economic fluctuation; (3) the fluctuation in Chinese PPI is mainly due to changes in the technology of domestic manufacturers, and the foreign technology and monetary policy are important factors to impact CPI inflation; (4) the real economic variables such as technological progress in China and the United States are the main factors to impact China’s current account surplus.
［Key words］ two-country open economy; current account imbalance; monetary policy rule; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Bayesian estimation
外汇交易视角下人民币国际化的路径——基于社会网络分析方法的研究
方俊智 陈俊营 李忻蔚
［摘 要］ 本文在人民币外汇交易层面建立职能和地域二维分析框架的基础上，引入社会网络分析方法针对全球42个国家绘制出人民币境外外汇交易关联网络图。分析结果表明，尽管整体网络关联度不高，但已形成以英国为交易中心，美国、德国和法国为次中心的格局，同时在欧洲和亚洲形成两大区域交易子群网络体系。进一步研究发现，人民币境外外汇交易地域正处于由周边化向区域化过渡的阶段，对外贸易、投资仍是驱动人民币外汇发展的主要动因。
［关键词］ 外汇交易；外汇市场；人民币国际化；人民币清算机构；社会网络分析
［Abstract］ In the two-dimensional framework of functional and regional analysis based on RMB foreign exchange transaction, the authors of this paper introduce the social network analysis method to draw the correlation network graphs of RMB oversea foreign exchange transaction of 42 countries around the world. The analytic results of the paper show that although the overall correlation of the network is not strong, it has formed a pattern in which the transaction center is the United Kingdom, the transaction sub-centers include the United States, Germany and France, and the two regional transaction sub-group networks are Europe and Asia. Further research shows that the RMB oversea foreign exchange transaction area is in a transition stage from the periphery to the region; the foreign trade and investment are still the main driving forces of the development of RMB foreign exchange.
［Key words］ foreign exchange transaction; foreign exchange market; RMB internationalization; RMB clearing institution; social network analysis
融资融券失衡对股价波动性的影响
虞一青 刘 嫦 赖登凌
［摘 要］ 本文利用2010～2015年中国A股数据分析融资融券交易对股价波动性的影响，研究结果表明：融券卖空交易能够平抑股价波动性，卖空行为使更多的负面信息汇入股价，提升了市场的定价效率，降低了股价的波动性。中国A股市场成熟度低，交易失衡致使融资交易远超融券交易，这种失衡状态增加了卖空成本，引发套利机制呈非对称性状态，套利者难以通过套利行为纠正错误定价，从而加剧了股价的波动性。
［关键词］ 融资融券失衡；股价波动性；卖空机制；套利非对称性
［Abstract］ Based on the data of China’s A share markets during 2010-2015, this paper presents an analysis of the impacts of margin trading on fluctuation in stock price. The results of the paper show that the security-lending short selling can reduce the fluctuation in stock price and makes the more negative information be reflected in stock price, which improves the efficiency of market pricing and reduces the fluctuation in stock price. Because of the low maturity of Chinese A-share market, the unbalanced margin trading makes the financing transaction far more than the security lending, increases the trading cost, leads to an asymmetric arbitrage mechanism, and it’s difficult for the arbitrager to correct the mis-pricing by arbitrage, so that the fluctuation in stock price is aggravated.
［Key words］ unbalanced margin trading; short selling mechanism; fluctuation in stock price; arbitrage asymmetry
文化与金融融合发展的风险传导效应
陈 广 水心勇
［摘 要］ 本文对文化艺术品市场与证券投资市场间的风险传导效应进行分析。研究发现：沪深300指数对文化艺术品市场存在单向溢出效应；文化艺术品市场和创业板指数是相互影响的，二者具有正的双向波动溢出效应；另外，文化艺术品市场与创业板指数的动态波动溢出效应更明显，二者具有典型的“同上同下”趋势。基于此，本文从完善市场交易规则、健全市场准入制度、建立艺术品投资对冲机制等方面提出相关对策建议。
［关键词］ 文化金融；艺术品投资；文化艺术品市场；证券投资市场；风险传导效应
［Abstract］ This paper presents an analysis of the risk transmission effects between cultural art market and securities investment market. It is found that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index have one-way spillover effects on the cultural art market; the cultural art market and the GEM index are mutually impacted, and the two have positive two-way fluctuation spillover effects; in addition, the dynamic spillover effects of the cultural art market and the GEM index are more obvious, and the two have a typical“the same upward- or down-trend”. Therefore, the authors of this paper make policy suggestions to perfect market trading rules, improve market access system, and form art investment hedging mechanism and so on.
［Key words］ culture finance; art investment; cultural art market; security investment market; risk transmission effect