人民币国际化、资本项目开放与金融市场建设
曹远征 郝志运 (3)
RMB Internationalization, Capital Account Opening and the Construction of Financial Market
CAO Yuan-zheng HAO Zhi-yun (3)
《商业银行法》修订应关注的几个问题
汪小亚 何正启 (8)
Several Issues Relating to the Revising of Commercial Banking Law Should be Paid Attention to
WANG Xiao-ya HE Zheng-qi (8)
货币政策在产业结构升级中的非对称效应
庞念伟 (16)
The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy on Industrial Structure Upgrading
PANG Nian-wei (16)
人民币汇率波动、预算软约束与企业现金持有水平
章贵桥 施汉忠 蔡海静 (27)
Fluctuations in RMB Exchange Rate, Soft Budget Constraint and the Cash Holdings of Enterprises
ZHANG Gui-qiao SHI Han-zhong CAI Hai-jing (27)
利率水平对商业银行盈利能力的影响——基于中国上市商业银行的实证分析
刘志洋 李风鹏 (40)
The Influence of Interest Rate Level on the Profitability of Commercial Banks——An Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Listed Commercial Banks
LIU Zhi-yang LI Feng-peng (40)
中小企业政策性融资担保的实践效应——基于上市中小企业及银行的实证研究
叶 莉 胡雪娇 陈立文（48)
The Practical Effects of Policy-Based Guarantee on SME Financing——An Empirical Study of Listed SMEs and Banks
YE Li HU Xue-jiao CHEN Li-wen (48)
行业管制、股权激励与上市公司风险承担
田存志 余欢欢 (62)
Industry Regulation, Equity Incentive and Risk-taking of Listed Companies
TIAN Cun-zhi YU huan-huan (62)
交叉持股与公司并购的股价效应——基于交易双方前10大股东的证据
陶启智 夏显莲 徐 阳 (73)
The Effects of Cross-shareholding and Company M&A on Stock Price
——Evidences from the Top 10 Shareholders of Both Sides of Transaction
TAO Qi-zhi XIA Xian-lian XU Yang (73)
人民币国际化、资本项目开放与金融市场建设
曹远征 郝志运
［摘 要］ 本文讨论了人民币国际化的新经验，即资本项目开放和可兑换可分阶段实施，认为上海自贸区的建设连接了人民币在岸市场和离岸市场，创造了资本项目可兑换的实现条件；人民币国际化能够走多远取决于人民币资本项目开放的进程，而发展真正有深度、能够提供安全稳定产品并具有流动性的金融市场是资本项目可兑换的实质所在。
［关键词］ 人民币国际化；资本项目开放；金融市场建设；上海自贸区
［Abstract］ This paper discusses the new experiences in RMB internationalization that the capital account opening and convertibility can be implemented in phases. The paper argues that, by the construction of Shanghai FTA, the RMB onshore markets are connected to offshore markets, and the conditions for realizing capital account convertibility are created; how long the RMB internationalization can last depends on the process of capital account opening, and the development of financial markets which are mature, capable of providing the security and stable products and the liquid is the essence of capital account convertibility.
［Key words］ RMB internationalization; capital account opening; construction of financial market; Shanghai FTA
《商业银行法》修订应关注的几个问题
汪小亚 何正启
［摘 要］ 在修订《商业银行法》过程中，重点是要把握住中国银行业未来发展方向，引导中国商业银行发展成为具有市场适应性和国际竞争力的现代金融机构，对于近年来商业银行经营管理中出现的新问题、新情况给予明确的制度安排。主要包括以下方面：改进商业银行市场准入法律制度，补充系统重要性银行监管和处置规则，完善商业银行集团化、国际化、综合化和信息化经营的法律规制，规范商业银行信息披露，并将金融消费者权益保护、存款保险制度和银行业协会纳入《商业银行法》予以规范。
［关键词］ 商业银行；商业银行法；修订
［Abstract］ The key of the revising of Commercial Banking Law is to determinate the direction of the future development of China’s banking industry, guide China’s commercial banks to become modern, market-adaptability and international-competitiveness financial institutions, and present a clear institutional disposal of the new problems and new situation in commercial banking management in recent years. It includes following aspects: improving the legal system for the market access of commercial banks, supplementing the supervision and disposal rules on G-SIBs, perfecting the legal regulation of the group, international, integrated and information operation of commercial banks, regulating the information disclosure of commercial banks and the protection of financial consumer’s rights and interests, the deposit insurance system and the banking association by the Commercial Banking Law.
［Key words］ commercial bank; Commercial Banking Law; revising
货币政策在产业结构升级中的非对称效应
庞念伟
［摘 要］ 本文利用1999～2014年季度数据，实证分析货币政策在产业结构升级中的作用。结果发现：（1）从产业间对比看，第二产业对货币政策冲击的反应最强，第一产业次之，第三产业最小，意味着仅靠货币政策无法实现提升服务业比重的政策目标；（2）从产业内部看，货币政策冲击并不能够提高高端制造业和现代服务业在产业内部的比重，从而说明货币政策在产业内部结构调整中的作用具有一定的局限性。
［关键词］ 货币政策；产业结构升级；SVAR模型
［Abstract］ Based on the quarterly data during 1999-2014, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects of monetary policy on industrial structure upgrading. It’s found that, (1) the contrast of industries shows the reaction of the secondary industry to the monetary policy is the strongest, followed by the primary industry, and the reaction of the tertiary industry is the least, which indicates only dependence on monetary policy can not reach the policy goal to increase the ratio of service sector; (2) the analysis of industry inside shows the impact of monetary policy can not increase the ratio of high-end manufacturing industry and modern service industry in industry inside, which proves the function of monetary policy in the inner restructure of industry faces limitations.
［Key words］ monetary policy; industrial structure upgrading; SVAR model
人民币汇率波动、预算软约束与企业现金持有水平
章贵桥 施汉忠 蔡海静
［摘 要］ 本文运用上市公司数据，考察人民币汇率波动引起的企业现金持有的变化。研究发现，当人民币兑美元不升值或贬值时，企业通过现金流积聚现金趋向减缓，现金持有水平显著下降；在纳入预算软约束因素后，存在预算软约束的国有企业现金持有水平明显下降，而不受预算软约束的企业现金持有平稳，未出现明显波动；同质性国有企业由于所受预算软约束程度不同，地方国企相比央企降低现金持有动机更加显著。
［关键词］ 人民币汇率；预算软约束；国有企业；民营企业；现金持有
［Abstract］ Based on the data of listed enterprises, this paper analyzes the changes in the cash holdings of companies duet to the fluctuations in RMB exchange rate. It’s found that, when the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar does not appreciate or depreciates, the tend that the enterprises accumulate cash by cash flow slows down, and the level of cash holdings significantly declines; when the factor“soft budget constraint(SBC)” is considered, the level of the cash holdings of SBC enterprises significantly declines, but the level of the cash holdings of non-SBC enterprises is steady and does not fluctuate significantly; because of the different SBC levels of homogeneous state-owned-enterprises, the local state-owned-enterprises have a more strong motivation to reduce cash holdings than the central enterprises.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; soft budget constraint; state-owned-enterprise; private enterprise; cash holding
利率水平对商业银行盈利能力的影响——基于中国上市商业银行的实证分析
刘志洋 李风鹏
［摘 要］ 本文使用2007~2014年16家中国上市商业银行的季度数据，研究利率水平与商业银行盈利水平的非线性关系。实证分析表明，银行净利息收入、非利息收入、资产收益率与短期利率正相关，且相关性具有凹的特点；银行净利息收入、银行资产收益率与利率曲线斜率的相关性为负，且具有凹的特征；银行非利息收入与利率曲线斜率的相关性显著为负，且具有凸的特性；利率水平不影响银行拨备与资产的比值。
［关键词］ 商业银行；利率水平；货币政策；盈利能力；利率曲线斜率
［Abstract］ In this paper, the quarterly data of Chinese 16 listed commercial banks during 2007-2014 are used to analyze the nonlinear relationship between the interest rate level and the profitability of commercial banks. The empirical analysis shows that the net interest income, non-interest income and ROA of commercial banks are positively correlated with the short-term interest rates, and the correlation is concave; the net interest income and ROA are negatively related to the slope of interest rate curve, and the correlation is concave; the net interest income is correlated with the slope of interest rate curve significantly and negatively, and the correlation is convex; the interest rate level does not impact the ratios of provisions to assets of the banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; interest rate level; monetary policy; profitability; slope of interest rate curve
中小企业政策性融资担保的实践效应——基于上市中小企业及银行的实证研究
叶 莉 胡雪娇 陈立文
［摘 要］ 本文以2007~2014年创业板上市中小企业数据及上市银行数据，检验政策性担保对中小企业贷款的实践效应。研究结果表明：政策性担保期间内中小企业的贷款可得性未有明显提升，而滞后期企业的整体贷款可得性显著增强，表明政策性担保有效弥补了中小企业的信用缺口；参与政策性担保的中小企业无论是在担保期还是滞后期其经营业绩恶化，表明政策性担保存在潜在道德性风险。
［关键词］ 政策性担保；中小企业；担保机构；企业贷款
［Abstract］ Based on the data of GEM listed SMEs and listed banks during 2007-2014, this paper presents a test on the practical effects of policy-based guarantee on loans to SMEs. The results of the paper show that the loan availability of SMEs is not significantly improved during the policy-based guarantee, but the overall loan availability of SMEs during the lag period is significantly improved, which indicates the policy-based guarantee has effectively compensated for the credit gap for SMEs; the performance of SMEs participating in the policy-based guarantee gets poor during the guarantee or lag period, which indicates the potential ethical risks lie in the policy-based guarantee.
［Key words］ policy-based guarantee; SME; guarantee institution; loan to enterprise
行业管制、股权激励与上市公司风险承担
田存志 余欢欢
［摘 要］ 本文实证检验行业管制和股权激励对上市公司风险承担的影响。结果显示，股权激励降低了上市公司的风险承担水平，并与上市公司风险承担呈负相关，行业管制与上市公司风险承担呈正相关，但不能否定股权激励的积极作用。结论表明行业管制有一定的合理性，对自然垄断行业的管制有利于提高上市公司的风险承担水平。
［关键词］ 行业管制；股权激励；上市公司；风险承担
［Abstract］ This paper resents an empirical test on the impacts of industry regulation and equity incentives on the risk-taking of listed companies. The results of the paper show that the equity incentive leads to the reduction in the risk-taking of listed companies, and negatively correlates with the risk-taking, but the industry regulation positively correlates with the risk-taking, which can not deny the positive role of equity incentive. The conclusions of the paper show that the industry regulation is reasonable to some extent, and the regulation on natural-monopoly industries is conducive to the increase in the risk-taking of listed companies.
［Key words］ industry regulation; equity incentive; listed company; risk-taking
交叉持股与公司并购的股价效应——基于交易双方前10大股东的证据
陶启智 夏显莲 徐 阳
［摘 要］ 本文使用事件研究法研究年中国上市公司的交叉持股并购，分析并购双方前十大股东中交叉持股者的收益及其对并购产生的影响。研究发现，并购公告宣布使得以人民币计算的交叉持股股东总收益显著为正；交叉持股股东调整后的主并方收益不显著为负；当市场预期到交叉持股股东通过财富转移致使主并公司其他股东遭受损失时，主并方股价下跌会加剧。
［关键词］ 上市公司；交叉持股；公司并购；股价效应；财富转移
［Abstract］ By the event study method, this paper analyzes the cross-shareholding and M&A of Chinese listed companies, the cross-shareholders’ earnings of the top 10 shareholders of both sides of M&A. It’s found that the disclosure of merger announcement leads to a result that shareholders’ total earnings calculated in RMB are significantly positive; the main buyers’ earnings after the adjustment to cross-shareholders are not significantly negative; when the market anticipation shows that the other shareholders of main buyers will suffer losses due to the cross-shareholders’ wealth transferring, the price of main buyers’ stocks drops greatly.
［Key words］ listed company; cross-shareholding; company merger and acquisition; effect of share price; wealth transferring