信贷资产流动性与融资结构优化
李礼辉 (3)
The Liquidity of Credit Assets and the Optimization of Financing Structure
LI Li-hui (3)
基于产业发展的经济新增长分析
谢志华 (7)
An Analysis of the Economic New Growth Based on Industrial Development
XIE Zhi-hua (7)
银行竞争对货币政策的贷款渠道的影响 —— 基于中国银行业的实证研究
高 勤 (11)
The Impacts of Banking Competition on the Lending Channels of Monetary Policy —— An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Banking Sector
GAO Qin (11)
货币政策传导过程中的阻塞机制 —— 对宽松货币政策下通货膨胀率下降的研究
张兴华 罗 彪 (22)
The Blocking Mechanism in the Process of Monetary Policy Transmission —— A Research on Inflation Rate Declining in Relaxed Monetary Policy Environment
ZHANG Xing-hua LUO Biao (22)
机构运行、借款人性质与小额信贷还款率
姜美善 (40)
The Institution Operation, Borrower Characteristics and the Repayment Rate of Micro-Finance
JIANG Mei-shan (40)
个人住房抵押贷款主动违约概率的影响因素
樊 颖 杨 赞（51)
Factors to Impact the Initiative Default Probability in Individual Housing Mortgage Loan
FAN Ying YANG Zan (51)
账面市值比效应真的是异象吗？—— 基于股利支付角度的分析
林煜恩 王柘君 (61)
Is the BM Effect Really An Anomaly? —— An Analysis from the Perspective of Dividend Payout
LIN Yu-en WANG Zhe-jun (61)
实施Basel Ⅳ对中国商业银行市场风险监管资本的影响 —— 基于Basel Ⅲ与Basel Ⅳ内部模型的比较分析
贾正晞 杜 纲 (71)
The Impact of Implementing Basel Ⅳon the Capitals for Market Risk Supervision of Chinese Commercial Banks —— A Comparative Analysis of the Basel Ⅲ and Basel Ⅳ Internal Models
JIA Zheng-xi DU Gang (71)
信贷资产流动性与融资结构优化
李礼辉
［摘 要］ 本文就“信贷资产流动性和融资结构优化”展开探讨。文章指出，我国商业银行信贷风险整体可控，然而信贷资产流动性较低，削弱银行优化资产配置的能力；企业资产负债率较高，削弱企业转型发展的财务实力；全社会直接融资比例较低，影响资源有效配置。对于上述问题，作者提出以下建议：第一，扩大信贷资产证券化范围；第二，实行有限制的债转股；第三，着眼于资产保值和资源整合推进企业重组；第四，继续加强金融市场基础设施建设，加快建设多层次资本市场体系。
基于产业发展的经济新增长分析
谢志华
［摘 要］ 本文基于产业发展阶段升级的历程，总结各阶段的经济增长特征，分析产业发展的趋势。在此基础上，提出对于中国的两点启示：一是中国工业化发展的阶段尚未全部完成，还需要通过工业化实现进一步的发展，但速度不可能再像前几十年那样快；二是必须借助现代服务业和现代信息业来提升制造业的层次，这样使得制造业对经济的增长能够起到延续的作用。
［关键词］ 产业发展阶段；工业化；经济新增长；现代服务业；现代信息业
［Abstract］ Based on the stages of industrial development upgrade, this paper presents a summary of economic growth characteristics in various stages and an analysis of trend in industrial development. On the basis of the above analysis, the author of the paper puts forward two viewpoints as lessons for China: first, the process of China’s industrial development has not finished, so the industrialization is needed to achieve further development, but the speed is no longer as high as it is in previous decades; second, it’s necessary to make use of modern services and modern information industry to improve the level of manufacturing industry, so the manufacturing industry can continue its function in economic growth.
［Key words］ industrial development stage; industrialization; economic new growth; modern services; modern information industry
银行竞争对货币政策的贷款渠道的影响——基于中国银行业的实证研究
高 勤
［摘 要］ 本文基于1998~2014年中国银行业非平衡面板数据，建立银行资产配置的两阶段模型，运用系统GMM估计方法实证分析了以Lerner指数衡量的银行竞争程度对货币政策银行贷款渠道的影响。结果表明：（1）在银行贷款渠道中，货币政策工具存款准备金率和一年期贷款基准利率发挥主要作用；（2）货币政策对银行贷款规模的作用受银行竞争程度影响，并且银行竞争程度的增加削弱银行贷款渠道的作用，这一效应主要通过城市商业银行和农村商业银行等中小型银行传导。
［关键词］ 中国银行业；银行竞争；货币政策；贷款渠道；Lerner指数
［Abstract］ Based on the unbalanced panel data of Chinese banking sector during 1998-2014, the author of the paper establishes a two-stage model of bank asset allocation and uses the system GMM method in the empirical analysis of the influence of banking competition degree measured by Lerner index on the bank lending channels of monetary policy. The results of the paper show that, (1) among the bank lending channels, the monetary policy tools, i.e. the deposit reserve ratio and the one-year loan benchmark interest rate, play a major role; (2) the influence of monetary policy on the scale of bank loan is impacted by banking competition degree, and the increase in the degree weakens the influence of bank lending channels, which is mainly conducted by city commercial banks and rural commercial banks and other small & medium-sized banks.
［Key words］ Chinese banking sector; banking competition; monetary policy; lending channel; Lerner index
货币政策传导过程中的阻塞机制——对宽松货币政策下通货膨胀率下降的研究
张兴华 罗 彪
［摘 要］ 本文通过建立VAR模型，并结合中国经济数据进行实证分析，研究发现：中国货币政策传导过程中利率与货币供给量之间以及货币供给量与实体经济之间存在明显的时滞效应；M0、M1、M2三个层次的货币流通速度都出现了不同程度的下降；名义货币供给量与进入实体经济的实际货币供给量之间的差额即有效货币供给缺口较大。这三者的共同作用形成货币政策传导过程中的阻塞机制，由此导致货币政策传导不畅，出现宽松货币政策下的通货膨胀率下降的“反常”现象。
［关键词］ 货币政策；阻塞机制；时滞；货币流通速度；有效货币供给缺口
［Abstract］ In this paper, the author establishes a VAR model and uses the China’s economic data to present an empirical analysis. It’s found that there are obvious lag effects between interest rates and money supply and between money supply and real economy in the process of monetary policy transmission; the velocities of M0, M1 and M2 on three levels decline to a different extent; the gap between nominal money supply and real money supply into real economy, i.e. effective money supply gap, is relatively great. The combined result of the above three effects forms the blocking mechanism in the process of monetary policy transmission, which results in “abnormal” phenomenon, such as the poor transmission of monetary policy and the inflation rate declining in relaxed monetary policy environment.
［Key words］ monetary policy; blocking mechanism; lag; monetary velocity; effective money supply gap
机构运行、借款人性质与小额信贷还款率
姜美善
［摘 要］ 本文从小额信贷机构和借款人的综合角度，研究小额信贷机构（MFI）运行机制的选择对借款人还款行为的影响。研究发现：基于个人发放的贷款方式、聚焦妇女和非金融服务、较低的单个借款人贷款额度，都会降低违约率；所有权形式方面，相对于信用社来说，非银行金融机构（NBFI）和非政府组织（NGO）都可以降低违约率，并且NGO降低的幅度大于NBFI；MFI经营时间越长，违约率反而越高。
［关键词］ 小额信贷机构；运行机制；所有权形式；借款人性质；还款率
［Abstract］ From the perspectives of micro-finance institution (MFI) and borrower, the author of the paper analyzes the influence of the operation mechanism choice of MFI on borrower’s repayment behavior. It’s found that the method of granting individual loan, focus on women and non-finance service, and the low loan amount of single borrower reduce the default rate; as to the effect of ownership, both the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) and the non-governmental organization (NGO), compared with the credit cooperative, can reduce default rate, and the NBFI can reduce more than the NGO; the longer the MFI operates, the higher the default rate is.
［Key words］ micro-finance institution; operation mechanism; ownership form; borrower characteristic; repayment rate
个人住房抵押贷款主动违约概率的影响因素
樊 颖 杨 赞
［摘 要］ 本文综合影响住房抵押贷款决策的各项风险因素，基于期权理论，建立个人住房抵押贷款主动违约边界模型，测算并绘制北京市“主动违约概率—还贷时间曲线”。研究发现，该曲线呈现先升后降的趋势。针对影响住房抵押贷款的各项风险因素的敏感性分析发现，房价增长率和波动率上升、贷款比率上升、还贷期限增长时，主动违约概率增加；而违约成本或交易费用上升时，主动违约概率呈现下降趋势。
［关键词］ 商业银行；个人住房抵押贷款；主动违约；违约概率；敏感性分析
［Abstract］ The author of the paper summarizes the risks to impact the decision about individual housing mortgage loan, and uses the option theory to construct a boundary model of the initiative default of individual housing mortgage loan, and to calculate and draw the “initiative default probability-repayment time curve” of Beijing. It’s found that the curve shows a trend that rises first and declines then. The analysis of the sensitivity of risks to impact housing mortgage loan shows when the growth rate of housing price, rate of price change, loan ratio and repayment term increase, the rate of initiative default rises; when the default cost or transaction cost rises, the rate of initiative default shows a declining trend.
［Key words］ commercial bank; individual housing mortgage loan; initiative default; default probability; sensitivity analysis
账面市值比效应真的是异象吗？——基于股利支付角度的分析
林煜恩 王柘君
［摘 要］ 本文以1996~2015年在沪深两市交易的A股公司为样本，分析原始股利、股利发放、增发股利三种情况对股票异常报酬率的影响；检验上市公司类型纳入账面市值比与股利支付的交互作用。结果显示，账面市值比效应并非“金融异象”，在企业发放股利的前提下，账面市值比效应存在且符合原有定价模型，净资产收益率与股票异常报酬率负相关。
［关键词］ 股利支付； 账面市值比效应；金融异象；股票异常报酬率
［Abstract］ In this paper, the A-share companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges during 1996-2015 are used as samples for the analysis of the impacts of original dividend, dividend payments, additional dividend payments on the rate of abnormal return, and the testing on the interaction between including listed companies type in the BM and dividend payments. The results of the paper show that the BM effect is not a financial anomaly; if the companies pay dividends, the BM effect exits and it is in line with the original pricing model; the ROA is negatively related to the rate of abnormal return.
［Key words］ dividend payment; BM effect; financial anomaly; rate of abnormal return
实施Basel Ⅳ对中国商业银行市场风险监管资本的影响——基于Basel Ⅲ与Basel Ⅳ内部模型的比较分析
贾正晞 杜 纲
［摘 要］ 本文实证分析Basel Ⅲ与Basel Ⅳ内部模型的差异。研究表明：中国商业银行采用ES为变量的新模型将大幅降低市场风险监管资本，而旧模型的变量VaR和SVaR在风险管理实践中仍然有效；实施Basel Ⅳ新模型有利于中国商业银行的经营结构转型和国际竞争力的提升，监管机构应尽早出台实施Basel Ⅳ的监管办法；商业银行应以实施新模型为契机，向资本节约的金融市场业务转型。
［关键词］ 市场风险；内部模型；风险价值（VaR）；预期尾部损失（ES）
［Abstract］ The paper presents an empirical analysis of the difference between Basel Ⅲ and Basel Ⅳ internal models. The conclusions of the paper shows that the new model in which the ES is used by Chinese commercial banks as variables will greatly reduce the capitals for market risk supervision, and the variables VaR and SVaR in old model will still valid in risk management practice; implementing Basel Ⅳ will help the business structure transformation and the international competitiveness enhancement of Chinese commercial banks; the regulatory institution should form the supervision policy for implementing Basel Ⅳ as soon as possible; the commercial banks should change their financial market business into a capital-saving one by means of implementing Basel Ⅳ new model.
［Key words］ market risk; internal model; value at risk (VaR); expected shortfall (ES)