牌照价值、资本要求与银行体系
张 杰 (3)
License Value, Capital Request and Banking System
ZHANG Jie (3)
资产短缺、家庭资产配置与商业银行转型
张 淦 高洁超 范从来 (13)
Asset Shortage, Family Asset Allocation and the Transformation of Commercial Banks
ZHANG Gan GAO Jie-chao FAN Cong-lai (13)
中国省级地方政府债务规模预测——基于全口径财政收支框架的研究
蔡 宁 刘 勇 (25)
The Forecast of the Debt Scales in China’s Local Governments——A Research Based on the Framework of Full-Dimension Financial Revenue and Expenditure
CAI Ning LIU Yong (25)
中国金融周期成分与随机冲击
孙彦林 陈守东 刘 洋 (35)
The Cycle Composition and Random Impacts in Chinese Finance
SUN Yan-lin CHEN Shou-dong LIU Yang (35)
定向降准货币政策的调控效果
马 理 潘 莹 张方舟 (46)
The Effects of Targeted Adjustment in Reserve Requirement of Monetary Policy
MA Li PAN Ying ZHANG Fang-zhou (46)
贷款集中、信贷跟随与产能过剩——以中国上市公司行业贷款为例
曹 森 史逸林（56)
Loan Concentration, Credit Follow-Up and Overcapacity——A Case Study of the Industrial Loans of Chinese Listed Companies
CAO Sen SHI Yi-lin (56)
异质市场人民币汇率预期的互动关系
张笑梅 郭 凯（70)
The Interaction between RMB Exchange Rate Expectations in Heterogeneous Markets
ZHANG Xiao-mei GUO Kai (70)
牌照价值、资本要求与银行体系
张 杰
［摘 要］ 现代银行体系稳健运行的要害在于维持市场竞争与准入限制的微妙平衡，而牌照价值是其中的关键因素。20世纪90年代以来的金融自由化浪潮打破了这种平衡，紧随其后的是监管当局越来越严格的资本要求。不过，与更高资本要求相伴随的却是银行体系的更加不稳定。银行演进史上的“北美分岔”为此提供了绝好的例证。循此逻辑，本文认为，中国在银行市场化改革进程中应当更加重视牌照价值而不是市场的竞争性；进而，对于民间资本进入银行市场，似应采取更为谨慎的政策步骤。
［关键词］ 牌照价值；资本要求；银行体系；民营资本；信贷非匿名命题；银行制度的“北美分岔”
［Abstract］ In order to sustain the sound operation of banking system, what matters most is to maintain a delicate balance between market competition and market access by means of license value. Unfortunately, the balance has been disrupted ever since the 1990s when financial liberalization began. Following the disruption is an increasingly higher demand for capital from supervision authority. However, accompanying the higher demand for capital, the banking system has become more stable, exemplified by the “north American divergence” in history. Along this line of argument, the author of the paper maintains that, in the process of China’s banking reform, it is essential to attach more importance to license value and to give more discretion to the access of private capital to financial market.
［Key words］ license value; capital demand; banking system; private capital; hypothesis of credit non-anonymity; the “north American divergence” of banking system
资产短缺、家庭资产配置与商业银行转型
张 淦 高洁超 范从来
［摘 要］ 本文研究发现，在资产短缺阶段，人们的储蓄行为发生了深刻变化，收入快速增长提高了人们的预防性需求和投机性需求，且投机性需求增长更快，这使得家庭在资产配置方面更倾向于高收益金融产品。在资产短缺时代，商业银行应以金融产品创新为核心和工作抓手，着力于提供更加丰富的金融产品，在满足家庭资产配置需求的同时实现自身的转型发展。
［关键词］ 资产短缺；商业银行转型；家庭资产配置；金融产品创新
［Abstract］ The study of this paper shows that, in the period of asset shortage, people’s saving behavior changed profoundly. The rapid growth in income increases people’s demand for prevention and speculation, and the speculative demand grows faster, which makes the asset allocation of families more inclined to high-income financial products. In the period of asset shortage, the commercial banks should focus on financial products innovation and provide more abundant financial products to meet the asset allocation needs of families, meanwhile realize their own transformation and deve-lopment.
［Key words］ asset shortage; commercial bank transformation; family asset allocation; financial product innovation
中国省级地方政府债务规模预测——基于全口径财政收支框架的研究
蔡 宁 刘 勇
［摘 要］ 本文通过预估中国30个省市的全口径财政收支，预测“十三五”期间中国省级地方政府的债务规模。研究发现：预测的全口径地方政府债务要高于财政部公布的实际地方政府债务；“十三五”期间，无论是经济向好情形，还是经济平稳、较弱情形，中国地方政府债务负债率都仅略高于30%，风险总体可控，但中国地方政府债务结构性、区域性问题突出，应当引起重视。
［关键词］ 地方政府债务；规模预测；全口径财政收支；预算约束恒等式
［Abstract］ Based on the estimates of the full-dimension financial revenue and expenditure of China’s 30 provinces, the author of this paper forecasts the debt scales of the China’s provincial local governments. It is found that the full-dimension local government debts are higher than the actual local government debts announced by the Ministry of Finance; in“the 13th Five-Year Plan” period, the debt rates of China’s local governments are only slightly higher than 30% whether the economy is good or stable or weak, and the overall risks are controllable, but the structural and regional issues in China’s local government debts are prominent, which needs to be paid attention.
［Key words］local government debt; scale forecast; full-dimension financial revenue and expenditure; budget constraint identity
中国金融周期成分与随机冲击
孙彦林 陈守东 刘 洋
［摘 要］ 本文基于RTV-DFM合成的FCI分析中国金融状况，通过趋势周期分解试图揭示其趋势周期波动特征。研究发现：该金融状况指数能够很好地反映中国金融状况的历史趋势及非对称特征且具有较好的预警功能，结果显示金融危机期间的刺激政策存在滞后效应，没能及时、充分发挥其作用；中国目前已经历了两次完整的金融景气周期循环，且处在第三次循环的泡沫破灭阶段并深陷于此，结果表明中国金融周期性短期波动与FCI趋势变化背道而驰，随机性趋势成分与FCI保持一致，且随机冲击的驱动效应更为强劲。
［关键词］ 金融周期；金融状况指数；周期波动特征；随机冲击；趋势周期分解
［Abstract］ Based on the FCI synthesized by RTV-DFM, the author of this paper analyzes the Chinese financial situation, and reveals the fluctuation characteristics of trend-cycle through trend-cycle decomposition. It is found that the financial condition index can well reflect the historical trend and the asymmetric characteristics of China’s financial situation, and has a good early-warning function. The results show that the stimulus policy during the financial crisis has lagged effects and fails to play a role fully and timely; China has experienced two complete cycles of financial boom, and is deep in the bubble burst stage of the third cycle. The results also show that the cyclical short-term fluctuation in Chinese finance runs in the opposite direction with the change in FCI trend, but the random trend composition is consistent with the FCI, and the driving effect of random impact is more robust.
［Key words］ financial cycle; financial condition index; characteristics of cyclical fluctuation; random impact; trend period decomposition
定向降准货币政策的调控效果
马 理 潘 莹 张方舟
［摘 要］ 本文研究在不同经济状态下，定向降准对农业、工业以及服务业的产出、价格与固定资产投资的影响。结果显示，定向降准对不同产业产生了差异化的影响，该政策一定程度上提高了农业的产出、价格与固定资产投资水平，与此同时也对其他产业产生了溢出效应。为了加强定向降准支持农业经济发展的定向调控功能，需要建立农业贷款动态考核机制，放宽对农业贷款的抵押担保要求，加大对支农贷款的优惠力度，降低对农业贷款的资本约束要求等。
［关键词］ 定向降准；新型货币政策；固定资产投资；农业贷款；抵押担保
［Abstract］This paper presents a study of the effects of targeted adjustment in reserve requirement of monetary policy on the output, price and fixed asset investment in agriculture, industry and service industries in various economic conditions. The results of the paper show that the effects of the targeted adjustment on different industries vary and it has increased the output, price and fixed asset investment of agriculture to a certain extent, meanwhile has spillover effects on other industries. In order to further strengthen the function of the targeted adjustment supporting the development of agricultural economy, it is essential to establish a dynamic assessment mechanism for agricultural loans, relax the requirements for the mortgage of agricultural loans, increase the preferential treatment for agricultural loans, reduce the capital constraint requirements for agricultural loans.
［Key words］ targeted adjustment in reserve requirement; new financial policy; fixed asset investment; agricultural loan; mortgage
贷款集中、信贷跟随与产能过剩——以中国上市公司行业贷款为例
曹 森 史逸林
［摘 要］ 本文考察中国不同类型商业银行在向不同行业上市公司发放贷款时是否存在带有“羊群效应”的信贷跟随行为，并分析这种信贷跟随行为对行业实体经济的影响。研究发现，中国商业银行在不同行业上市公司的信贷行为中存在相互跟随的“羊群效应”，这种信贷跟随行为会在短期内促进行业实体经济的增长，但在中长期会造成行业产能过剩和行业收益率的反转，引起实体经济的波动。
［关键词］ 贷款集中；羊群效应；跟随行为；产能过剩；商业银行；实体经济
［Abstract］ This paper presents an analysis whether the credit follow-up, a herding-effect behavior, exists in the loans issued by various types of Chinese commercial banks to the listed companies in different industries, and the impacts of the credit follow-up on the real economy. It’s found that there is a mutual follow-up herding-effect in the loans issued by Chinese commercial banks to the listed companies in different industries, and it can promote the growth of the real industrial economy in the short term, but results in industrial overcapacity, the reversion of the industrial returns and the fluctuation in the real economy.
［Key words］ loan concentration; herding effect; follow-up; overcapacity; commercial bank; real economy
异质市场人民币汇率预期的互动关系
张笑梅 郭 凯
［摘 要］ 本文以CNY与CNH外汇市场为研究对象，结合境内外利率市场构建汇率预期变量，以人民币汇率形成机制改革为时间节点，构建VECM模型，研究异质市场人民币汇率预期互动关系。研究发现，境内外人民币汇率预期之间存在显著的互动关系，且以汇改时点为分水岭体现出不同特点。在2014年“3.17汇改”前，境内外人民币汇率预期之间不存在长期均衡关系，汇改后二者存在长期均衡关系。在2015年“8.11汇改”后，境内外人民币汇率预期的长期均衡关系再次发生显著的变化。
［关键词］ 汇率形成机制改革；汇率预期；汇率管理；异质市场
［Abstract］ The author of this paper uses the CNY and CNH foreign exchange markets as samples, combining the domestic and foreign interest rate markets, to construct the variables of exchange rate expectation, and takes the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism as the time mark to construct the VECM model for the research on the interaction between RMB exchange rate expectations in heterogeneous markets. It’s found that there is a significant interaction between Chinese and foreign RMB exchange rate expectations, and the time of the exchange rate reform is a watershed and the interaction shows different characteristics. Before the“3.17 exchange rate reform” in 2014, there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate expectations, but the relationship exists after the exchange rate reform. After the“8.11 exchange rate reform” in 2015, the long-term equilibrium relationship between Chinese and foreign RMB exchange rate expectations changes greatly again.
［Key words］ reform of exchange rate formation mechanism; exchange rate expectation; exchange rate management; heterogeneous market