四次人民币汇改的经验与启示
管 涛 (3)
The Experience and Lessons from the Reform of RMB Exchange Rate
GUAN Tao (3)
资本监管压力、收入多元化与上市银行稳健性
曲洪建 GONG Tao 迟运鹏 (9)
Capital Supervision Pressure, Income Diversification and the Stability of Listed Banks
QU Hong-jian GONG Tao CHI Yun-peng (9)
监管质量、政治法律环境与商业银行风险承担——基于全球样本面板数据的经验证据
段军山 肖友生 (19)
Supervision Quality, Political & Legal Environment and the Risk-Taking of Commercial Banks——Empirical Evidences from the Panel Data of Global Samples
DUAN Jun-shan XIAO You-sheng (19)
商业银行转型升级的内驱动力——基于创新效率视角的研究
于文强 郭继辉 李 烨 邹小玉 (37)
Internal Driving Force of Transformation and Upgrading of Commercial Banks——An Analysis from the Perspective of Innovation Efficiency
YU Wen-qiang GUO Ji-hui LI Ye ZOU Xiao-yu (37)
中国家庭商业人身保险需求现状及其影响因素——基于中国家庭金融调查的实证研究
王宏扬 (51)
The Status Quo and Factors to Impact the Commercial Life Insurance Demand of Chinese Households——An Empirical Research Based on CHFS
WANG Hong-yang (51)
A+H交叉上市股票涨跌幅度的溢出效应
乔 扬 戴洛特 朱宏泉（66)
The Spillover Effects of the Rise-Fall of A + H Cross-Listed Stocks
QIAO Yang DAI Luo-te ZHU Hong-quan (66)
四次人民币汇改的经验与启示
管 涛
［摘 要］ 1994年以来，中国外汇体制完成了4次重大改革，第5次外汇改革正在进行中。本文系统梳理前4次汇改的经验及启示并得到以下结论：第一，没有汇率市场化就不会有强势人民币；第二，汇率改革必须经历从量变到质变的惊险一跃；第三，汇率改革要注意把握时机和做好政策储备；第四，汇率市场化即使不是开放的前提条件也必定是配套措施；最后，人民币汇率改革是一项系统工程。
［关键词］ 人民币；汇率改革；汇率并轨；有管理的浮动；汇率市场化
［Abstract］ Since 1994, China’s foreign exchange system has completed four major reforms, and the fifth reform is in progress. The author of this paper analyzes the four reforms and summarizes the following conclusions: first, there is no strong RMB without the liberalization of foreign exchange; second, the exchange rate reform has to undergo a risky process from the quantitative change to the qualitative change; third, the exchange rate reform needs good opportunity and policy; fourth, the liberalization of exchange rate is certainly a supporting measure even if it’s not a prerequisite for the opening; finally, the RMB exchange rate reform is a systematic project.
［Key words］ RMB; exchange rate reform; unification of exchange rate; managed floating; liberalization of exchange rate
资本监管压力、收入多元化与上市银行稳健性
曲洪建 GONG Tao 迟运鹏
［摘 要］ 基于2003~2015年中国16家上市银行的非平衡面板数据，实证分析资本监管压力通过收入多元化的中介作用对银行稳健性的影响。研究发现，资本监管压力能够约束银行风险行为，提高银行稳健性；收入多元化程度越大，银行稳健性越好；收入多元化在资本监管压力影响银行稳健性的过程中发挥显著的中介作用。因此，提高资本监管压力，能够促使银行拓展收入来源，提高银行稳健性。
［关键词］ 资本监管压力；收入多元化；上市银行；中介效应；银行稳健性
［Abstract］ Based on the non-equilibrium panel data of 16 listed banks in China during 2003-2015, the author of this paper analyzes the influence of capital supervision pressure on the bank stability through the intermediary role of income diversification. It’s found that the capital supervision pressure can restrain the risk behaviors of banks and improve the bank stability; the greater the degree of income diversification, the better the bank stability is; the income diversification plays a significant intermediary role in the process of capital regulation pressure affecting the bank stability. Therefore, to raise the capital supervision pressure can promote banks to expand the income source and improve the stability.
［Key words］ capital supervision pressure; income diversification; listed bank; intermediary effect; bank stability
监管质量、政治法律环境与商业银行风险承担——基于全球样本面板数据的经验证据
段军山 肖友生
［摘 要］ 本文采用93个国家共4 498家商业银行的数据，研究监管质量、政治法律制度环境对商业银行风险承担的影响。研究发现：第一，监管质量的提升在总体上确实抑制了商业银行的道德风险，使得商业银行降低了其风险承担。第二，健全的法律制度环境有效地降低了商业银行的风险承担，但单一的政治制度环境因素并未如预期般抑制或约束商业银行风险承担，反而使其承担更多的风险。第三，监管当局对商业银行经营设置过于苛刻的监管要求并配套相应的政治法律制度环境，会提高商业银行的风险承担。
［关键词］ 商业银行；风险承担；监管质量；政治法律制度；固定效应模型
［Abstract］ In this paper, the data of 4 498 commercial banks in 93 countries are used for a research on the influence of supervision quality, political and legal environment on the risk-taking of commercial banks. It’s found that, first, the improvement in supervision quality has indeed inhibited the moral hazards of commercial banks as a whole, and reduce the risk-taking of commercial banks; second, the sound legal-system environment effectively reduces the risk-taking of commercial banks, but a single factor of political-system environment doesn’t inhibit or restrict the risk-taking of commercial banks as it’s expected, and leads to more risk-taking on the contrary; third, if the the regulatory authorities set up too severe regulatory requirements and supporting political and legal environment for the commercial banks, the risk-taking of commercial banks will rise.
［Key words］commercial bank; risk-taking; regulatory quality; political and legal system; fixed-effect model
商业银行转型升级的内驱动力——基于创新效率视角的研究
于文强 郭继辉 李 烨 邹小玉
［摘 要］ 本文立足金融业务创新效率视角，建立商业银行转型升级内驱动力模型，应用基于产出距离函数的随机前沿分析方法，选取17家商业银行2008~2013年的面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明，对于商业银行转型升级的内驱动力而言，独立意见、员工激励和企业家精神均对商业银行转型升级产生正向推动作用，驱动力依次减弱，并受到利益冲突的负面影响。
［关键词］ 创新效率；商业银行；转型升级；内驱动力；随机前沿分析
［Abstract］ From the perspective of the efficiency of financial service innovation, the author of this paper sets up a model of the internal driving force of the transformation and upgrading of commercial banks, and uses the random frontier analysis method based on the output-distance function and the panel data of 17 commercial banks during 2008-2013 for an empirical analysis. The results of the paper show that, for the internal driving force of transformation and upgrading of comm- ercial banks, the independent opinions, employee motivation and entrepreneurship have positive promotion effects on the transformation and upgrading; the driving force decreases in turn and are adversely affected by the interest conflicts.
［Key words］ innovation efficiency; commercial bank; transformation and upgrading; internal driving force; random frontier analysis
中国家庭商业人身保险需求现状及其影响因素——基于中国家庭金融调查的实证研究
王宏扬
［摘 要］ 本文利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，分析中国家庭商业人身保险需求现状及其影响因素。研究表明，中国家庭的商业人身保险需求较低，从保险需求方家庭的角度看，对保险产品不信任、金融市场参与积极性不高，是抑制家庭保险需求的重要原因；家庭重要性的感知越强，家庭的商业人身保险需求越大；风险偏好较强的家庭更可能购买商业人身保险；少儿占比、老年人占比与商业人身保险需求呈现倒U形关系。
［关键词］ 商业人身保险；保险信任；金融市场参与；中国家庭金融调查
［Abstract］The author of this paper uses the data of China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) to analyze the status quo and factors to impact the commercial life insurance demand of Chinese households. The results of the paper show that the commercial life insurance demand of Chinese households is low, and the reasons of the low demand from the perspective of households, the insurance demand side, include the non- trust in insurance products and low participation in financial markets; the stronger the perception of the importance of household, the greater the commercial life insurance demand; the stronger the risk preference of households, the greater the possibility that they buy the commercial life insurance; the ratios of the child and the elderly in household show an inverted U-shaped relationship with the commercial life insurance.
［Key words］ commercial life insurance; insurance trust; financial market participation; Chinese household financial investigation
A+H交叉上市股票涨跌幅度的溢出效应
乔 扬 戴洛特 朱宏泉
［摘 要］ 本文研究A+H交叉上市股票涨跌幅度溢出效应。选取1997年1月1日到2015年8月19日87对A+H股日收益率数据，通过计算相关系数、历史收益回测及Granger因果关系检验进行实证研究，得出结论：H股上市股票上涨15%后会对相应A股产生明显的溢价效应；H股下跌15%后对应A股中短期内有一定下跌风险，要回避抄底买入对应A股，特别是当A股股价处于历史高位时。此外，A + H股有很强的相关性，且随时间推移相关关系日益密切，近年来A股对H股影响显著增强。
［关键词］ A+H股；溢价效应；涨跌幅限制；动量效应；反转效应
［Abstract］ This paper presents a study of the spillover effects of the rise-fall of A+H cross-listed stocks. The 87 sets of daily return data of A+H stocks during January 1, 1997-August 19, 2015 are used for an empirical analysis based on the calculations of the correlation coefficient and historical return and the Granger causality test. The conclusions of the paper include that the 15% rise in H-stock price has a significant spillover effect on the corresponding A stock; the 15% fall in H-stock price will result in the risk of fall in price of the corresponding A stock in the short and medium terms, so the bargain-hunting buy of A stocks, especially when A stocks are at historically high levels, is not suggested. In addition, there is a strong correlation between A+H stocks, and it becomes stronger with time; in recent years, the impacts of A stocks on H-stocks have significantly enhanced.
［Key words］ A+H stock; spillover effect; price limit; momentum effect; reversal effect