银行影子的发展及其运作模式探析
梁 琪 涂晓枫 (3)
An Analysis of the Development and Operational Patterns of Bank Shadow
LIANG Qi TU Xiao-feng (3)
中国金融创新结构的指数度量与影响因素
李 健 林文浩 (13)
The Indexes and Factors to Affect Chinese Financial Innovation Structure
LI Jian LIN Wen-hao (13)
货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调配合
闫先东 张鹏辉 (30)
The Coordination of Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Policy
YAN Xian-dong ZHANG Peng-hui (30)
资本充足率会降低商业银行流动性创造吗？—— 基于中国商业银行的实证研究
周 凡 齐天翔 周伟峰 (42)
Does Capital Adequacy Ratio Reduce the Liquidity Creation of Commercial Banks? ——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Commercial Banks
ZHOU Fan QI Tian-xiang ZHOU Wei-feng (42)
金融发展、供应链集中度与企业债务融资成本
张 勇 (54)
Financial Development, Supply Chain Concentration and Corporate Debt-Financing Costs
Zhang Yong (54)
中国是国际黄金市场波动之源吗？
游士兵 吴欢喜（68)
Is China a Source of Fluctuation in International Gold Market?
YOU Shi-bing WU Huan-xi (68)
银行影子的发展及其运作模式探析
梁 琪 涂晓枫
［摘 要］ 本文研究银行影子的发展历程、运作模式、会计处理及受监管情况，给出每一种运作模式的流程图，展现银行影子的参与机构和运作流程。本文研究表明：银行影子本质是银行贷款，却规避了银行贷款应有的监管，致使银行系统可能隐藏巨大风险；银行影子增强了金融机构间的联系，增加了风险传染的渠道和传染的可能性，并且这些过桥机构使得资金链条相对传统贷款业务更长，增加了企业的融资成本。
［关键词］ 银行影子；影子银行；银信合作；银证合作；银银合作；系统性风险
［Abstract］ This paper presents a study of the development process, operational patterns, accounting treatment and supervision of bank shadow, and the chart of each operational pattern that diagrams the participation institutions and operational procedure of bank shadow. The study of the paper shows that the essence of bank shadow is loan, but it avoids the supervision of loan, so huge risks may hide in banking system; the bank shadow strengthens the connection between financial institutions, and increases the channels of risk transmission and the possibility of transmission, and these bridge-institutions make the fund chain longer relatively than that of traditional lending business, which increases the financing costs of firms.
［Key words］ bank shadow; shadow bank; bank-trust cooperation; bank-security cooperation; bank-bank cooperation; systemic risk
中国金融创新结构的指数度量与影响因素
李 健 林文浩
［摘 要］ 本文汇总1979~2015年中国金融创新事件，编制中国金融创新的结构指数。指数反映改革开放以来金融创新的总体结构日趋复杂和成熟；6种创新形式对创新结构变化的累计贡献更加趋同与稳定。实证分析表明，金融创新的探索是推动金融创新结构变化的持续动力；重大改革决策、对外开放和科技进步促进金融创新的结构变化，金融危机抑制金融创新的结构变化。本文的政策含义是，中国需要深化改革，营造更适宜内生性金融创新的环境，开展更多金融原始创新，重点推动制度、管理和技术创新，并关注创新时机和窗口期的选取。
［关键词］ 金融创新；金融创新的结构指数；创新结构；事件研究法
［Abstract］ The author of this paper summarizes the events of Chinese financial innovation during 1979-2015, and proposes the structural indexes of Chinese financial innovation. The Indexes reflect the increasingly complex and mature overall structure of innovation since the reform and opening-up, and the cumulative contribution of the six patterns of innovation to changes in innovation structure becomes more identical and more stable. The empirical analysis shows that the exploration of financial innovation is a consistent force to promote changes in financial innovation structure; the major reform decision-making, opening to the outside world and scientific and technological progress promote changes in financial innovation structure, and the financial crisis restrains the changes. The policy suggestions of the paper include that China needs to deepen reform, create a better environment for endogenous financial innovation, carry out more financial original innovation, focus on innovation in system, management and technology, pay attention to the selection of the time and window of innovation.
［Key words］ financial innovation; structural index of financial innovation; innovation structure; event-study method
货币政策与宏观审慎政策的协调配合
闫先东 张鹏辉
［摘 要］ 基于宏观审慎工具贷款价值比的动态化，本文考察货币政策与宏观审慎政策的相互协调，研究结果表明：（1）逆周期的宏观审慎政策和传统型货币政策配合可以在不损害实体经济的情况下，有效地维护货币目标、缓解金融顺周期造成的金融市场失衡问题；（2）纳入宏观审慎目标的加强型货币政策既无法维护货币政策目标也无法有效实现宏观审慎目标。
［关键词］ 宏观审慎政策；货币政策；贷款价值比；DSGE模型
［Abstract］ Based on the dynamic ratio of loan to value, a macro-prudential tool, the author of this paper analyzes the mutual coordination of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. The results of the paper show that, (1) the coordination of counter-cyclical macro-prudential policy and traditional monetary policy can achieve monetary policy goal effectively and reduce financial market disequilibrium due to financial pro-cycle without damaging the real economy; (2) the augmented monetary policy including macro-prudential goal is not conducive to realizing the monetary policy goal or the macro-prudential goal.
［Key words］macro-prudential policy; monetary policy; ratio of loan to value; DSGE model
资本充足率会降低商业银行流动性创造吗？——基于中国商业银行的实证研究
周 凡 齐天翔 周伟峰
［摘 要］ 本文基于中国202家商业银行2009~2014年度财务数据，研究资本充足率与银行流动性创造之间的关系。结果发现，资本充足率越高，流动性创造越低，二者具有因果关系；进一步看，银行市场集中度越高，越能促进二者之间的负向关系。结论认为：应降低高于巴塞尔协议Ⅲ的资本充足率；降低银行集中度，促进银行竞争活力，减弱资本充足率对流动性创造的负向影响。
［关键词］ 商业银行；资本充足率；流动性创造；市场集中度；双重差分法
［Abstract］ Based on the financial data of Chinese 202 commercial banks during 2009-2014, the author of this paper analyzes the relationship between capital adequacy ratio and bank liquidity creation. The results of the paper show that the higher the capital adequacy ratio, the lower the liquidity creation is, and the relationship is a causal one; further, the higher banking market concentration will promote the negative relationship more. The author suggests to reduce the capital adequacy ratio above the requirement of BASEL III, decrease the bank concentration, promote the bank competi-tiveness, decrease the negative impacts of capital adequacy ratio on liquidity creation.
［Key words］ commercial bank; capital adequacy ratio; liquidity creation; market concentration; difference-in-difference method
金融发展、供应链集中度与企业债务融资成本
张 勇
［摘 要］ 本文基于企业供应链管理的视角，研究较高的供应链集中度是否会诱发企业的经营风险，进而影响其债务融资成本。研究发现，供应链集中度越高，企业的债务融资成本越高；企业所处地区的金融发展水平越高，供应链集中度对债务融资成本的影响越大。这表明提升区域金融发展水平有利于发挥供应链集中度的风险揭示和债务定价作用。
［关键词］ 供应链集中度；经营风险；债务融资成本；金融发展
［Abstract］From the perspective of enterprise supply chain management, this paper examines whether the higher supply chain concentration results in corporate operational risks, and thus impacts the debt-financing cost. The study of this paper shows that the higher the concentration of supply chain, the higher the corporate debt-financing cost is; the higher the level of financial development in the region where the firm is located, the greater the influence of supply chain concentration on debt-financing cost is, which indicates the increase in the level of regional financial development will be conducive to the functions of the risk disclosure and debt pricing of supply chain concentration.
［Key words］ supply chain concentration; operational risk; debt-financing cost; financial development
中国是国际黄金市场波动之源吗？
游士兵 吴欢喜
［摘 要］ 本文利用混频数据模型分析中国宏观经济状况对国际黄金市场波动率的影响，并对模型的预测能力进行分析和评价；通过引入已实现波动率和宏观经济变量预期对模型进行拓展。研究表明，中国宏观经济对国际黄金市场波动率呈现出正向影响；中国宏观经济政策的不稳定性会导致市场的波动，即中国宏观经济从不同方面对国际黄金市场长期波动率产生影响。
［关键词］ 国际黄金市场；外汇储备资产；GARCH-MIDAS-X模型；MCS方法
［Abstract］ The author of this paper uses the MIDAS model to analyze the impacts of Chinese macroeconomic situation on fluctuation in international gold market, and presents the analysis and evaluation of the forecasting ability of the model. By the introduction of realized fluctuation and macroeconomic variable expectation, the model is reformed. It’s found that the Chinese macro-economy has a positive impact on fluctuation in international gold market; the instability of Chinese macroeconomic policies will result in fluctuation in the market, which means that Chinese macro-economy impacts the long-term fluctuation in international gold market in different aspects.
［Key words］ international gold market; foreign exchange reserve asset; GARCH-MIDAS-X model; MCS method