“一带一路”建设和国家金融安全的共赢
万 喆 (3)
The Win-Win of “One Belt & One Road” Construction and National Financial Security
WAN Zhe (3)
新型全球化的前景、路径与中国角色
宗 良 黄雪菲 (7)
The Prospect, Path and China’s Role in the New Globalization
ZONG Liang HUANG Xue-fei (7)
经济下行期经济资本管理的难点和重点
汪小亚 张江帆 (14)
Difficulties and Emphases of Economic Capital Management in Economy-Downturn Period
WANG Xiao-ya ZHANG Jiang-fan (14)
网贷模式下投资者群体的风险偏好
宋唯实 (21)
The Risk Preference of Investor Group in P2P Lending Pattern
SONG Wei-shi (21)
业绩预期压力、高管股权激励与企业投资不足
翟淑萍 卓 然 王 玥 (38)
The Pressure of Performance Expectations, Executive Equity Incentive and Investment Shortage of Firms
ZHAI Shu-ping ZHUO Ran WANG Yue (38)
大股东持股、外部融资需求与股票转让方式选择
陈 辉 陈得文 胡 妍（50)
Equity of Large Shareholders, Demand for External Financing and Choice of Stock Transfer Mechanism
CHEN Hui CHEN De-wen HU Yan (50)
汇率风险与商业银行外汇资产结构优化
中国工商银行江苏省分行课题组（61)
Exchange Rate Risk and the Optimization of Foreign Exchange Asset Structure of Commercial Banks
The Study Group of JIANGSU Branch, ICBC (61)
房价波动对房地产企业偿债能力的影响
陆 婷 张 明（68)
The Impacts of Fluctuation in Housing Price on Solvency of Real Estate Firms
LU Ting ZHANG Ming (68)
“一带一路”建设和国家金融安全的共赢
万 喆
［摘 要］ 国家金融安全需要“一带一路”建设，“一带一路”建设保障国家金融安全。在推进“一带一路”建设中，首先，探索多元化、国际化投融资模式，增强金融合作、优化资源配置，升级金融机构经营管理风险防控水平；其次，构建跨区域的多层次金融组织体系，如建立多层次的合作基金，吸引沿线国家资金和社会资本参与“一带一路”建设；第三，加强保险体系建设，丰富保险品种，为“一带一路”提供有效的风险保障；第四，完善区域协调机制，加强沿线国家金融监管合作，健全金融监管体系。
［关键词］“一带一路”；金融合作；金融风险；金融安全；金融监管
［Abstract］ The national financial security needs the construction of “One Belt & One Road”, and the construction of “One Belt & One Road” is conducive to national financial security. The followings should be paid attention to: first, it’s needed to explore a diversified, international investment and financing pattern, enhance financial cooperation, optimize the allocation of resources, upgrade the levels of the risk-prevention in the operation and management of financial institutions; second, to build a cross-region and multi-level financial organization system, such as establishing a multi-level cooperation fund so as to attract national funds and social capitals to participate in “One Belt & One Road”construction; third, to strengthen the insurance system and increase the insurance varieties so as to provide effective risk-prevention for “One Belt & One Road” construction; fourth, to improve the regional coordination mechanism, strengthen financial regulatory cooperation between the nations along the “Belt & Road”, and improve the financial supervision system.
［Key words］ “One Belt & One Road”; financial cooperation; financial risk; financial security； financial supervision
新型全球化的前景、路径与中国角色
宗 良 黄雪菲
［摘 要］ 金融危机以后，全球经济增长放缓，“逆全球化”势力暗流涌动。虽然历经诸多波折，但是经济金融全球化的基本趋势不可逆转。本文通过分析传统全球化的重要作用，揭示“逆全球化”思潮出现的根源在于现有的全球治理体系不能适应未来发展的需要，认为打造“新型全球化”才是正确的路径选择，中国应以“中国智慧”引领构建“新型全球化”。
［关键词］ 逆全球化；新型全球化；全球治理体系；中国角色；中国智慧
［Abstract］ After the financial crisis, the global economic growth slows down and the “anti-globalization” force forms. Although the economic and financial globalization faces difficulties, its main trend is irreversible. By analyzing the important role of traditional globalization, the authors of this paper argue that the cause of “anti-globalization” force is that the existing global governance system can not meet the needs of future development, and the right path choice is “new globalization”; China should lead the “new globalization” by the Chinese wisdom.
［Key words］ anti-globalization; new globalization; global governance system; China’s role; Chinese wisdom
经济下行期经济资本管理的难点和重点
汪小亚 张江帆
［摘 要］ 经济下行期，银行资产质量下降预判风险难度、经济资本计量调整适应经济周期变化的难度、经济资本的调节系数与实际业务相吻合的难度、经济资本配置和计划管理的复杂性、经济资本对监管资本传导的准确性要求、经济资本在微观领域的管理应用难度均明显增加。目前，银行在提高资本监管的风险敏感性、经济资本管理在各专业条线的横向配置和动态调整、银行资本补充的市场化约束效力有待改进。银行应前瞻性做好资本管理规划；建立周期管理；夯实信贷全流程管理；发挥经济资本的政策导向职能，加快对新兴产业的战略布局。
［关键词］ 经济下行期；商业银行；经济资本；经济资本管理；非预期风险
［Abstract］ In economy-downturn period, the difficulties increase in the pre-evaluation of the risks of decrease in bank asset quality, the economic capital measurement adjustment to adapt to economic cycle change, the coincidence of economic capital adjustment coefficient and actual business, the application of economic capital in micro-field management, the complexity of economic capital allocation and planning management, and the requirements for accuracy in economic capital transmitting capital supervision. At present, risk sensitivity of bank capital supervision, the horizontal configuration and dynamic adjustment of economic capital management in special fields, the effects of market orientation on bank capital supplement should be improved. Banks should be plan their capital management in advance; implement cycle management; improve the whole process management of loans; make use of the policy-introduction functions of economic capital, and speed up the strategic programs aiming to emerging industries.
［Key words］economy-downturn period; commercial bank; economic capital; economic capital management; un-expecting risk
网贷模式下投资者群体的风险偏好
宋唯实
［摘 要］ 本文利用P2P网站“人人贷”的实际交易数据，探究P2P借贷模式下投资者群体的风险偏好。实证结果表明，P2P借贷中投资者群体是风险厌恶型的，当利率大于11%时，投资者群体的风险厌恶特性会显著表现出来。当投资者群体显著表现出风险厌恶特性时，随着利率的升高，投资者对优质标的的筛选力度变大，使得成交标的中借款人的潜在违约风险不再随利率上升而上升，标的的实际违约率同样不再与利率表现出正相关关系，这意味着利率对违约率反映能力的部分失效，造成产品收益与产品风险的失衡。
［关键词］ P2P借贷；投资者群体；风险偏好；风险厌恶；违约风险
［Abstract］ Based on the actual transaction data of peer-to-peer lenders, the author of this paper analyzes the risk preference of investor group in P2P lending pattern. The empirical results show that the investor group is risk-averse in P2P. When the interest rate is more than 11%, the risk-aversion characteristics of the investor group will be manifested. When the investor group clearly shows the risk-aversion characteristics, the investors, with the increase in interest rate, make more efforts to select the quality subject matter, so the potential default risks of borrowers don’t increase with the rise in borrowing rate, and the real default rate of the subject matter does not show a positive correlation with the interest rate, which means borrowing rate can not reflect default rate effectively, and results in an imbalance between the profits and risks of products.
［Key words］ P2P lending; investor group; risk reference; risk aversion; default risk
业绩预期压力、高管股权激励与企业投资不足
翟淑萍 卓 然 王 玥
［摘 要］ 本文以 2007~2015 年中国 A 股上市公司为研究样本，基于资本市场的业绩预期压力对企业投资不足的影响，探讨高管股权激励对该影响的治理效应，以及发挥治理作用的具体股权激励类型。研究发现：（1）业绩预期压力的增大会加剧企业投资不足；（2）高管股权激励能够缓解业绩预期压力带来的投资不足；（3）相对于限制性股票和激励型股权激励，股票期权与福利型股权激励对业绩预期压力引起投资不足的缓解作用更强。
［关键词］ 业绩预期压力；高管股权激励；激励类型；投资不足；倾向得分匹配
［Abstract］Based on the samples of A-share listed firms in China during 2007-2015 and the impacts of the pressure of performance expectation from capital market on the investment shortage of firms, the authors of this paper analyze the governance effects of executive equity incentive on the impacts, and the type of equity incentive that plays a role in governance. It’s found that, (1) the increase in the pressure of performance expectation will intensify the investment shortage of firms; (2) the executive equity incentive will reduce the shortage; (3) compared to the incentives of restricted stocks and incentive-type equity, the stock options and welfare-equity incentives are more likely to reduce the shortage.
［Key words］ pressure of performance expectation; executive equity incentive; incentive type; investment shortage; propensity score matching
大股东持股、外部融资需求与股票转让方式选择
陈 辉 陈得文 胡 妍
［摘 要］ 本文以大股东持股为视角，提出了一个解释股票转让方式选择影响因素的新假说，并以新三板市场转让机制变化为契机，对这一假说进行了实证检验。研究发现：大股东持股比例越高，挂牌公司越不倾向于选择做市转让，但大股东持股比例和做市商数量之间的相关关系不显著；在外部融资需求越强的公司中，大股东持股比例与是否选择做市转让之间的关系越弱。
［关键词］ 做市转让；协议转让；大股东持股；外部融资需求；新三板市场
［Abstract］ From the perspective of the equity of large shareholders, the authors of this paper present a new hypothesis to explain the factors to impact the choice of stock transfer mechanism, and an empirical test on the hypothesis in the context of change in stock transfer mechanism of the New Third Board. It is found that the higher the ratio of large shareholders, the less possibly the listed firms choose market-making transferring mechanism, but the relationship between the equity ratio of large shareholders and the number of market makers is not significant; in the firms that have more financing need, the relationship is weaker between the equity ratio and the choice of market-making transferring mechanism.
［Key words］ market-making transferring; agreement transferring; equity of large shareholder; external financing need; New Third Board
汇率风险与商业银行外汇资产结构优化
中国工商银行江苏省分行课题组
［摘 要］ 本文利用VAR模型，分析和预测美元、欧元、人民币、英镑和日元的实际有效汇率及五种货币的汇率在未来不同的趋势，利用均值—方差模型估算外汇资产的有效前沿表明，通过调整外汇资产的结构，可以在风险不变的情况下提升商业银行外汇资产的收益率；降低美元资产比例，增加欧元、英镑和日元资产比重，可以有效减少商业银行外汇资产所承担的汇率风险。
［关键词］ 商业银行；实际有效汇率；外汇资产结构；汇率风险；汇率风险管理
［Abstract］ This paper presents an analysis and a forecast of the real effective exchange rates of USD, EUR, RMB, GBP and JPY based on the VAR model, so as to show the different trends of the five currencies in the future. The estimate of the effective frontier of the foreign exchange assets based on the mean-variance model indicates that, by adjusting the structure of foreign exchange assets, the return rate of foreign exchange assets can be increased in the case of the same risk; the decrease in the ratio of USD assets and increase in the ratios of EUR, GBP and JPY assets can effectively reduce the exchange rate risks of foreign exchange assets of commercial banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; real effective exchange rate; structure of foreign exchange asset; exchange rate risk; management of exchange rate risk
房价波动对房地产企业偿债能力的影响
陆 婷 张 明
［摘 要］ 本文利用2005~2015年中国上市房地产企业的相关数据，围绕房价对房地产企业偿债能力的影响进行考察。结果显示，房价上涨有助于提升房地产企业的短期偿债能力，但由于房价上涨改变了企业对未来现金流的预期，同时增强了企业获取贷款的能力，导致企业主动增加杠杆，从而削弱了其长期偿债能力。房价对房地产企业杠杆率的正向影响进一步为该结论提供了佐证。
［关键词］ 住房价格；偿债能力；房地产开发企业；抵押品渠道；企业融资结构
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the data of Chinese listed real estate firms during 2005-2015 to analyze the impacts of housing price on the solvency of firms. The results show that the increase in housing price improves the short-term solvency of firms, but leads the firms to increase leverage that weakens their long-term solvency because the increase in housing price changes the expectation of firms for the future cash flow and improve the ability of firms to obtain loans. The positive impacts of housing prices on the leverage of real estate firms support the above results further.
［Key words］ housing price; solvency; real-estate development firm; collateral channel; financing structure of firm