非金融企业金融化程度与杠杆率变动的关系
—— 来自A股上市公司和发债非上市公司的证据
吴 军 陈丽萍（ 3 ）
The Relationship between the Degree of Financialization of Non-Financial Enterprises and the Change in Leverage of Non-Financial Enterprises
——Evidences of A-Stock Listed Companies and Non-Listed Bond-Issuing Companies
WU Jun CHEN Li-ping（ 3 ）
金融危机的传导效应
—— 以欧洲金融危机为例
孙红梅 朱伟琪 崔百胜（16）
The Transmission Effect of Financial Crisis
——The Sample of European Financial Crisis
SUN Hong-mei ZHU Wei-qi CUI Bai-sheng（16）
货币政策、流动性监管与银行风险承担
庞晓波 钱 锟（27）
Monetary Policy, Liquidity Regulation and Risk-Taking of Banks
PANG Xiao-bo QIAN Kun（27）
百度搜索、风险感知与金融风险预测
—— 基于行为金融学的视角
罗 鹏 陈义国 许传华（39）
Baidu Search, Risk Perception and Financial Risk Prediction
——A Perspective of Behavioral Finance LUO Peng CHEN Yi-Guo XU Chuan-hua（39）
高新技术企业认证能缓解融资约束吗？
卢君生 张顺明 朱艳阳（52）
Can the High & New-Tech Enterprise Identification Reduce Financing Constraints?
LU Jun-sheng ZHANG Shun-ming ZHU Yan-yang（52）
P2P网贷平台本息保障与投资者反应
郑迎飞 陈晓静（66）
The Principal and Interest Guarantee of P2P Online Lending and Investors’ Reaction
ZHENG Ying-fei CHEN Xiao-jing（66）
非金融企业金融化程度与杠杆率变动的关系
——来自A股上市公司和发债非上市公司的证据
吴 军 陈丽萍
本文对2007~2015年2 232家上市公司和发债非上市公司的平衡样本研究后发现：中国非金融企业金融化程度不断提高，总体来看金融资产配置比例适度且风险可控，对非金融企业充分利用资金、增加收益、调结构、降杠杆起到了积极作用；其中，上市公司金融资产配置提高对降杠杆具有正面作用，且其金融化行为特征基本上都为“盈余效应”或“盈余效应”和“替代效应”共存；而非上市公司金融资产配置提高对降低杠杆率存在负面影响，且其金融化行为特征基本上都为“替代效应”。
［关键词］ 非金融企业；金融化；杠杆率；上市公司；发债非上市公司
［Abstract］ This paper presents a study of the impacts of financialization of non-financial enterprises on the leverage ratio. The study of the balanced samples of 2 232 listed companies and non-listed bond-issuing companies during 2007-2015 shows that the financialization of non-financial enterprises in China is continuously improving, the ratio of financial assets is appropriate and the risks are controllable overall, and it has played a positive role in making full use of funds, increasing returns, adjusting structure and reducing leverage in non-financial enterprises; the increase in the financial assets allocation of listed companies has a positive effect on lowering leverage, and the characteristics of financial behavior are basically “surplus effect” or the co-existence of “surplus effect” and “substitution effect”, but the increase in non-listed companies has a negative effect, and the characteristics are basically “substitution effect”.
［Key words］ non-financial enterprise; financialization; leverage; listed company; non-listed bond-issuing company
金融危机的传导效应
——以欧洲金融危机为例
孙红梅 朱伟琪 崔百胜
［摘 要］ 本文以欧洲金融危机为研究事件，建立GARCH模型与C-Vine Copula函数来检验金融危机传染的影响程度。研究结果表明：欧洲金融危机发生时，各区域间相关性较低，欧洲市场对于中国市场的直接传递效应较强，通过美国与香港的间接传递性较弱。从长期来看，随着全球经济一体化进程的加快，金融危机的传染效应正在不断加强，对此需要提高警惕。
［关键词］ 金融危机；欧洲金融危机；国际传染；C-Vine Copula函数
［Abstract］ In this paper, the European financial crisis is used as a sample for the testing of the impact of financial crisis contagion based on the the GARCH model and C-Vine Copula function. The results of the paper show that the inter-regional correlation is low when the European financial crisis occurs; the direct transmission effect of the European markets on the Chinese markets is strong, and the indirect transmission effect through the United States markets and Hong Kong markets is weak. In the long run, with the acceleration of global economic integration, the contagion effect of the financial crisis will constantly strengthen, and it needs to be paid attention.
［Key words］ financial crisis; European financial crisis; international contagion; C-Vine Copula function
货币政策、流动性监管与银行风险承担
庞晓波 钱 锟
［摘 要］ 本文基于2008~2015年87家银行的微观数据，实证检验货币政策对银行风险承担的影响以及流动性监管中净稳定资金比率的调控作用。实证结果表明：（1）宽松货币环境下，利率下降和房地产价格上涨使银行风险承担增加；（2）提高净稳定资金比率可以削弱利率对银行风险承担的影响，净稳定资金比率超过107.9%时，银行风险加权资产比例对利率的敏感性下降。
［关键词］ 货币政策；流动性监管；银行风险承担；风险加权资产；金融稳定
［Abstract］ Based on the micro-data of 87 banks during 2008-2015, the authors of this paper empirically test the impacts of monetary policy on the risk-taking of banks and the regulatory role of net-stable-capital ratio in liquidity regulation. The empirical results show that: (1) in a loose monetary environment, the decrease in interest rates and the rise in real estate prices will increase the risk-taking of banks; (2) increasing the net-stable-capital ratio can reduce the impacts of interest rates on the risk-taking of banks, and while the net-stable-capital ratio exceeds 107.9%, the sensitivity of the ratio of bank risk-weighted assets to interest rates drops.
［Key words］ monetary policy; liquidity regulation; risk-taking of bank; risk-weighted asset; financial stability
百度搜索、风险感知与金融风险预测
——基于行为金融学的视角
罗 鹏 陈义国 许传华
［摘 要］ 本文利用百度搜索大数据、金融风险指标滞后项以及结构数据变量滞后项建立金融风险预测模型，研究发现：（1）包含百度搜索大数据的风险预测模型有助于提升金融风险预测的准确度，并且模型在金融风险上升时期的预测效果要好于金融风险下降时期的预测效果。（2）公众搜索宏观经济类风险、银行机构类风险和互联网金融类风险产生“追涨杀跌”的非理性行为，搜索非银行机构类风险的当期产生“追涨杀跌”的非理性行为，随后转变为“追跌杀涨”的理性行为。
［关键词］ 百度搜索；风险感知；金融风险预测；行为金融
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the big data of Baidu search, lagged financial risk indicators and lagged structure data variables to set up a financial risk prediction model. The study of the paper shows that, (1) the risk prediction model with the big data of Baidu search helps improve the accuracy of financial risk prediction, and the prediction result of the model in the period of financial risk rising is better than that in the period of financial risk falling; (2) the public search for macroeconomic risk, banking risk and Internet financial risk leads to a irrational behavior“chasing sell”, and the search for banking risk leads to a irrational behavior “chasing sell” in the current period, then a rational behavior.
［Key words］ Baidu search; risk perception; financial risk prediction; behavioral finance
高新技术企业认证能缓解融资约束吗？
卢君生 张顺明 朱艳阳
［摘 要］ 本文以2008年高新认证办法为背景，基于2005~2009年中国工业企业大样本数据，实证考察高新认证在信贷市场的信号效应。研究发现，高新认证可以显著促进企业的外部信贷融资，缓解其融资约束；高新认证的信号效应受认证环境与企业自身特征的影响；相对于不规范认证环境、国有企业和大型企业，高新认证对处于市场中介运作较为规范环境的企业、民营企业以及中小企业的作用更为显著。
［关键词］ 高新技术企业认证；信号功能；融资约束；双重差分倾向得分匹配
［Abstract］ Based on the 2008 high & new-tech identification regulation and the large sample data of Chinese industrial enterprises during 2005-2009, this paper presents an examination of the signal effect of high & new-tech identification in credit market. It is found that the high & new-tech identification can significantly promote the external credit financing of enterprises and reduce their financing constraints; the signal effect of high & new-tech identification is affected by the identification environment and the characteristics of the enterprises. Compared with the non-standard identification environment, state-owned enterprises and large enterprises, the role of the high & new-tech identification is more significant for the enterprises in environment that market intermediary operates regularly, the private enterprises and the SMEs.
［Key words］ high & new-tech enterprise identification; signal function; financing constraint; PSM-DID
P2P网贷平台本息保障与投资者反应
郑迎飞 陈晓静
［摘 要］ 本文利用拍拍贷和温州贷两大网贷平台的交易数据，实证检验在不同本息保障方式的平台上，P2P网贷投资人对借款人信息的利用强度是否存在差异，以及投资者是否存在羊群行为。结论表明，平台承诺本息保障的规则对投资者的投资决策具有显著影响。当平台承诺对投资者的逐笔投资提供本息保障时，投资者对信息的利用强度较低，甚至不屑于跟随其他投资者。
［关键词］ P2P网贷；网贷投资；本息保障；投资者行为；羊群行为；网贷征信系统
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper uses the transaction data of PPDAI and WZDAI to verify whether there are differences in the online lending investors’ application of borrowers’ information in the principal and interest guarantee platform, and whether investors show a herd behavior. The results of the paper show that the rule of the principal and interest guarantee of the platform has a significant impact on investors’ investment decision; If the platform promises to provide principal and interest guarantee for investor’s investment, the investor uses less information and even does not follow other investors.
［Key words］ P2P online lending; online lending investment; principal and interest guarantee; investor behavior; herd behavior; credit reporting system of online lending