发展现代人身保险，深化保险业供给侧改革
曹凤岐（ 3 ）
Developing Modern Life Insurance and Deepening the Supply-Side Reform of Insurance Industry
CAO Feng-qi（ 3 ）
互联网金融发展与经济增长的关系 —— 非参数格兰杰检验
姜 松 黄庆华（ 6 ）
The Relationship between Internet Finance Development and Economic Growth ——A Non-Parametric Granger Test
JIANG Song HUANG Qing-hua（ 6 ）
农户正规信贷配给变化影响因素及传导机制 —— 来自中国银行业的证据
陈 言（24）
Factors to Impact the Formal Credit Ration to Farmers and the Transmitting Mechanism ——Evidences from China’s Banking
CHEN Yan（24）
创新活动与企业融资 —— 基于垄断竞争银行业视角的研究
芮红霞（36）
Innovative Activities and Firm Financing ——A Study from the Perspective of Monopolistic-Competition Banking
RUI Hong-xia（36）
宏观经济数据公布与中国股市日历效应
张金清 徐 阳（52）
The Release of Macroeconomic Data and the Calendar Effect in Chinese Stock Market
ZHANG Jin-qing XU Yang（52）
盈余管理行为与股票定价 —— 基于中国A股市场的检验
李心愉 赵景涛 段志明（66）
Earnings Management Behavior and Stock Pricing——A Testing Based on China’s A-Stock Markets
LI Xin-yu ZHAO Jing-tao DUAN Zhi-ming（66）
发展现代人身保险，深化保险业供给侧改革
曹凤岐
［摘 要］ 社会保险是解决退休、养老、医疗问题的主要途径，但面临资金不足、保障力度低、覆盖面不够和限制条件多的问题。商业健康保险作为现代金融业的重要组成部分和新兴专业领域，能够发挥经济补偿、社会管理、健康管理以及支付方等功能。提高群众的养老、医疗保障和健康水平，在推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化方面具有重要作用。必须大力发展与人身保障相关的保险品种。除了传统的人身保险外，还应发展现代人身保险。
［关键词］ 保险业；商业保险；现代人身保险；养老保险
［Abstract］ Social insurance is the main way to solve the problems of retirement, elderly-care and medical treatment. But it faces the problems of insufficient funds, low-level guarantee, insufficient coverage and many limited conditions. As an important part of the modern financial industry and a newly-emerging field, the commercial health insurance has the functions of economic compensation, social management, health management and payer, so as to enhance the people’s elderly-care, medical care and health, and has an important role in promoting the modernization of national governance system and governance ability. It’s needed to develop the insurance related to personal security. In addition to the traditional life insurance, it’s needed to develop modern life insurance.
［Key words］ insurance industry; commercial insurance; modern life insurance; endowment insurance
互联网金融发展与经济增长的关系
——非参数格兰杰检验
姜 松 黄庆华
［摘 要］ 本文基于非参数格兰杰因果检验方法，从总体、性别、年龄和业态等维度，实证检验互联网金融发展和经济增长关系及其结构性特征。总体检验结果表明，互联网金融发展是经济增长的格兰杰原因，但经济增长不是互联网金融发展的格兰杰原因；不同性别的分类检验结果与总体结果一致；不同年龄层的互联网金融发展指数与经济增长之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系和相互作用机制，但呈现非对称性特征；除互联网支付外，互联网货币基金、互联网投资和互联网保险均与经济增长存在双向格兰杰因果关系。
［关键词］ 互联网金融；金融发展；经济增长；非参数格兰杰检验
［Abstract］ Based on the non-parametric Granger causality test, this paper presents an empirical test on the relationship between Internet finance development and economic growth, and the structural characteristics. The test results show that Internet finance development is the Granger reason of economic growth, but economic growth is not the Granger reason of Internet finance development. The disaggregated-test results of different genders are consistent with the overall results. There is a two-way Granger causality and an interaction mechanism between the index of Internet finance development of different ages and the economy growth, but they show the asymmetry characteristics; Except the Internet payment, the Internet monetary funds, Internet investment and Internet insurance have a two-way Granger causality relationshiop with economic growth.
［Key words］ internet finance; financial development; economic growth; non-parametric Granger test
农户正规信贷配给变化影响因素及传导机制
——来自中国银行业的证据
陈 言
［摘 要］ 本文基于2 399家银行机构样本数据，从信贷供给方视角实证分析农户正规信贷配给变化影响因素及传导机制。研究发现：风险管理能力、区域信用环境等因素通过改变银行机构担保管理、审贷管理等行为，进而影响农户的贷款需求行为，导致数量配给、担保配给、风险配给、交易成本配给、社会资本配给等各类信贷配给现象强弱变化，最终表现为农户正规信贷配给的松紧变化。而政府干预因素可能主要通过改变银行机构担保管理行为的途径影响农户正规信贷配给的松紧变化。
［关键词］ 农户；正规信贷配给；风险管理能力；区域信用环境；农村金融市场
［Abstract］ Based on sample data of 2 399 banking institutions, the author of this paper analyzes the factors to impact the formal credit ration to farmers and the transmitting mechanism. It’s found that the risk-management ability, regional credit environment and other factors impact the farmers’ loan demand by changing the guarantee management and loan-checking management of banking institutions, and result in the degree change in the quantity ration, guarantee ration, risk ration, transaction-cost ration and social capital ration,etc., eventually the change turns into a change in the formal credit ration to farmers. The government intervention may impact the change in the level of the formal credit ration to farmers by changing the guarantee management of banking institutions.
［Key words］ farmer; formal credit ration; risk-management ability; regional credit environment; rural financial market
创新活动与企业融资
—— 基于垄断竞争银行业视角的研究
芮红霞
［摘 要］ 本文针对垄断竞争银行业市场构建创新活动与企业融资的理论模型，探究创新企业“融资贵”和“融资难”的内在机制。研究发现，创新活动的不确定性导致银行贷款间替代弹性降低是创新企业“融资贵”的根本原因，而金融机构数量不足抑制创新企业投资，产生“融资难”现象；创新活动增加企业融资成本，地区银行业生产率的提高将降低企业融资成本并促进企业投资，而地区银行业金融机构数量的增加通过丰富金融产品和专业金融服务实现企业资本综合成本的降低，提高企业资本—劳动要素比。
［关键词］ 创新活动；创新企业；企业融资；融资成本；垄断竞争银行业
［Abstract］ The author of this paper constructs a theoretical model of innovative activities and firm financing in the monopolistic-competition banking market, and analyzes the internal mechanism of the“expensive financing” and “difficult financing” of innovative firms. It’s found that the basic cause of“expensive financing” is the uncertainty of innovative activities resulting in the decrease in the substitution elasticity of bank loans; the lack of financial institutions restrains the investment of innovative firms, and results in the “difficult financing”; the innovative activities increase the financing cost of firms, the increase in regional banking productivity reduces the financing cost and promotes the investment of firms; the increase in the number of banking institutions in the region reduces the comprehensive cost of the capitals of firms and increases the capital-labor ratio of firms through providing more financial products and professional financial services.
［Key words］ innovative activity; innovative firm; firm financing; financing cost; monopolistic-competition banking
宏观经济数据公布与中国股市日历效应
张金清 徐 阳
［摘 要］ 本文研究发现，2001年1月至2016年7月间，在国家统计局公布包括CPI、PPI在内的通胀数据的前一日，上证指数会出现-0.291个百分点，且在1%的水平保持显著的负收益。此现象并非来源于通胀数据中的信息对股市的冲击影响，而是由市场对已知的数据公布日程的反应所致，在本质上更接近于一种另类的日历效应。本文认为其成因在于中国股市高度的信息不对称及卖空限制引发的投资者在通胀数据公布前的避险行为。研究还发现，类似效应在其他重大宏观经济数据公布前也存在。
［关键词］ 通胀数据；股票市场；上证指数；公布效应；日历效应
［Abstract］ The research of this paper indicates that, during January, 2001-July, 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index shows a -0.291 percentage-point return at the 1% significant level on the day before the National Bureau of Statistics releasing the inflation data including CPI and PPI. This phenomenon does not originate from the impact of the information in inflation data on the stock market but rather from the reaction of the market to the publication schedule of the known data, and in essence it is closer to a different kind of calendar effect. The authors of the paper argue that its causes lie in the highly asymmetric information of Chinese stock markets and the hedging behavior of investors resulting from the the short selling restriction before the release of the inflation data. The research indicates that the similar effect exists in the markets on the day before the release of the other major macroeconomic data.
［Key words］ inflation datum; stock market; Shanghai Composite Index; release effect; calendar effect
盈余管理行为与股票定价
—— 基于中国A股市场的检验
李心愉 赵景涛 段志明
［摘 要］ 本文建立引入盈余管理行为的资产定价模型，结合贝叶斯概率模型得到盈余管理前后的盈余偏差，考察该偏差对股票价格的影响，并基于中国A股市场的数据进行实证分析，最终得出两个结论：从短期来看，可操控盈余对披露的盈余水平和股票收益率具有正向作用；从长期来看，可操控盈余不会对股票的价格产生影响，因而不具有定价作用。
［关键词］ 中国A股市场；盈余质量；可操控盈余；股票价格；股票收益率
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper introduce the earnings management behavior in the asset pricing model, use the Bayesian Probability Model to gain the earnings deviation before and after the earnings management, and examine the impacts of the deviation on stock price. Based on the data of China’s A-stock markets, the authors make an empirical analysis and come to two conclusions: in the short term, the discretionary earnings have a positive effect on the level of disclosing earnings and the returns on equity; in the long term, the discretionary earnings have no effect on stock price and thus have no pricing effect.
［Key words］ China’s A-stock markets; earnings quality; discretionary earnings; stock price; return on equity