政府与市场“两只手”的有机结合—— 宏观经济理论历史演进、未来路径与理论模型
宗 良 范若滢（ 3 ）
The Effective Combination of Government and Market——The Historical Evolution, Future Path and Model of Macro-Economic Theory
ZONG Liang FAN Ruo-ying（ 3 ）
金融监管、流动性约束与货币政策效果—— 基于DSGE模型的实证研究
左 伟 朱元倩 巴曙松（12）
Financial Supervision, Liquidity Constraints and the Effects of Monetary Policy——A Research Based on DSGE Model
ZUO Wei ZHU Yuan-qian BA Shu-song（12）
银行过度信贷增长的测度与风险
辛兵海 胡逸飞 王重润（27）
The Measurement and Risk Effect of Excessive-Credit Growth of Banks
XIN Bing-hai HU Yi-fei WANG Chong-run（27）
黄金能对冲人民币汇率和股市风险吗？
刘志蛟 刘力臻（43）
Can Gold Hedge the RMB Exchange Rate and the Stock Market Risk?
LIU Zhi-jiao LIU Li-zhen（43）
汇率改革、短期国际资本流动与资产价格
王 博 王开元（56）
Exchange Rate Reform, Short-Term International Capital Flows and Asset Prices
WANG Bo WANG Kai-yuan（56）
资本开放与经常账户失衡—— 基于88个经济体的实证研究
蔡 兴 刘淑兰（69）
Capital Liberalization and Current Account Imbalance——An Empirical Study Based on 88 Economies
CAI Xing LIU Shu-lan（69）
政府与市场“两只手”的有机结合—— 宏观经济理论历史演进、未来路径与理论模型
宗 良 范若滢
［摘 要］ 本文分析宏观经济理论各流派争论以及混合思想的历史演进、宏观经济理论变革的未来路径，构建基于市场与政府“两只手”共同作用的模型，探讨不同发展阶段相应的经济发展模式，建立政府与市场共同作用的政策框架体系。本文认为，中国经济的成功实践是宏观经济理论创新的基础。未来中国既要坚定推进市场化改革，完善市场机制，让市场发挥决定作用；同时应进一步完善宏观调控机制，让政府发挥较好作用。“两只手”有机结合促进中国经济的高质量发展。
［关键词］ 市场与政府关系；宏观经济理论；混合经济；理性综合；经济发展模式
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper analyze the historical evolution of various debates and mixed ideas, and the future reform path of macro-economic theory, build a model based on the joint function of the“two hands” of market and government, explore the economic development modes at different stages of development, build the policy framework system based on the joint function of government and market. The authors argue that the successful practice of the Chinese economy is the basis for the innovation of macroeconomic theory; in the future, China should not only firmly promote market-oriented reforms, improve the market mechanism, let the market play a decisive role, but also further improve the macro-control mechanism so that the government can play a better role. The effective combination of the “two hands” will promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.
［Key words］ relationship between market and government; macro-economic theory; mixed economy; rational synthesis; economic development mode
金融监管、流动性约束与货币政策效果—— 基于DSGE模型的实证研究
左 伟 朱元倩 巴曙松
［摘 要］本文构建包含流动性约束下的银行部门的动态随机一般均衡模型，研究金融监管对货币政策的影响。研究结果表明：微观流动性约束会加大宏观货币政策对投资、产出等宏观经济变量的负面影响；面对技术冲击和货币政策冲击时，微观流动性约束对货币政策冲击的影响较大；逆周期金融监管有助于缓解流动性约束对货币政策调整的影响。因此，中央银行在货币政策的制定中，应充分考虑金融机构受到的监管约束；同时，在金融监管政策的制定中，必须结合当前的货币政策及宏观流动性状况。
［关键词］ 货币政策；金融监管；流动性约束；动态随机一般均衡模型
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including liquidity constraints on banking sector to analyze the impact of financial supervision on monetary policy. The results of the paper show that, the micro-liquidity constraint increases the negative impact of macro-monetary policy on macro-economic variables such as investment and output; comparing the technical shock, the micro-liquidity constraint has a greater impact on monetary policy shock; counter-cyclical financial supervision helps ease the impact of liquidity constraints on monetary policy adjustments. Therefore, while forming the monetary policies, the central bank should fully consider the regulatory constraints imposed on financial institutions; while forming the financial regulatory policies, the current monetary policy and macro liquidity conditions should be considered.
［Key words］ monetary policy; financial supervision; liquidity constraint; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model
银行过度信贷增长的测度与风险
辛兵海 胡逸飞 王重润
［摘 要］ 基于中国2003~2016年16家上市银行样本数据，本文应用HP滤波方法对个体银行的过度信贷增长进行测度，并实证分析过度信贷增长和事后信贷风险的关系。研究发现：（1）商业银行不良贷款率会受到过度信贷增长的正向影响，这证明中国信贷市场上存在“赢者诅咒”效应。（2）由于风险偏好存在差异，相对于其他中资上市银行而言，四大国有控股商业银行信贷风险对过度信贷的敏感性更强。（3）过度信贷在增加信贷风险的同时，也在一定程度上冲击了银行的稳定性，增加了银行的破产风险。
［关键词］ 商业银行；过度信贷；不良贷款率；信贷风险；赢者诅咒；HP滤波
［Abstract］ Based on the sample data of 16 listed banks in China during 2003-2016, the authors of this paper use the HP filtering method to measure the excessive-credit growth of the banks, and empirically analyze the relationship between excessive-credit growth and ex-post credit risk. The results of the paper show that, (1) The non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks is positively affected by excessive-credit growth, which proves the existence of the “winner’s curse” effect in Chinese credit market; (2) due to the difference in risk preference, the credit risk of the four state-holding commercial banks compared with other Chinese listed banks is more sensitive to excessive-credit; (3) the excessive-credit increases credit risk, and meanwhile it impacts the stability of the banks to a certain extent and increases the bankruptcy risk of the banks.
［Key words］ commercial bank; excessive-credit; non-performing loan ratio; credit risk; winner’s curse; HP filtering
黄金能对冲人民币汇率和股市风险吗？
刘志蛟 刘力臻
［摘 要］ 本文从平均水平和收益分布角度考察黄金对人民币贬值和股市下跌风险的对冲和安全港功能。结果表明，黄金对汇率贬值和股市下跌风险的对冲或安全港功能受黄金市场条件影响。黄金几乎不能规避股市下跌风险，仅在黄金高度牛市条件下是股市暴跌的安全港。黄金对汇率贬值风险的规避作用随币种变化而变化：人民币对美元贬值，黄金仅在自身处于牛市条件下是汇率过度贬值的安全港；人民币对欧元贬值，黄金在平均水平上是汇率贬值的对冲和安全港，但随着黄金市场条件变化，对冲和安全港功能会发生变化。
［关键词］ 人民币汇率；股票市场；黄金；对冲；安全港；风险规避
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper examine the hedging and the haven roles of gold against the devaluation of RMB and the risks of falling stock markets from the perspective of average and income distribution. The results of the paper show that the hedging or the haven role of gold is affected by the conditions of gold market. Gold can hardly evade the risks of a falling stock market, and it’s a haven for the falling stock market only in the context of the mega-bull gold market. The role of gold in evading the risks of exchange rate depreciation varies according to currency. When the RMB is depreciated against the U.S. dollar, gold is a haven for the excessive exchange rate depreciation only in the context of the bull gold market; When the RMB is depreciated against the Euro, gold can hedge the risks and is a haven at the average level, but the roles of hedging and haven change accordingt to gold market.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; stock market; gold; hedging; haven; evading risk
汇率改革、短期国际资本流动与资产价格
王 博 王开元
［摘 要］ 本文结合DCC-GARCH模型和DAG-SVAR模型对中国资产价格与短期国际资本流动的相互关系进行分析，并考察三次汇改对二者关系的影响。研究表明：资产价格与短期国际资本流动之间存在显著的相关性和因果性，但在汇改的不同阶段表现有所差异；在汇率改革的不同阶段，短期国际资本流动对于资产价格的上涨均具有推动作用；汇率改革对资产价格与短期国际资本流动的关系有一定影响。
［关键词］ 汇率改革；资产价格；短期资本流动；股价；房价
［Abstract］ Based on the DCC-GARCH model and the DAG-SVAR model, the authors of this paper analyze the relationship between Chinese asset prices and short-term international capital flows,and the impacts of the three exchange rate reforms on the relationship. It’s found that there are significant correlations and causalities between asset prices and short-term international capital flows, and they vary in different stages of exchange rate reform; in all stages of exchange rate reform, the short-term international capital flows promote the increase in the asset prices; the exchange rate reform impacts the relationship between asset prices and short-term international capital flows.
［Key words］ exchange rate reform; asset price; short-term capital flow; stock price; housing price
资本开放与经常账户失衡——基于88个经济体的实证研究
蔡 兴 刘淑兰
［摘 要］ 本文利用88个经济体的平衡面板数据，实证研究资本开放对经常账户失衡的影响。实证结果表明：（1）资本开放对经常账户失衡存在显著的负向影响，即经济体资本开放程度越高，其经常账户余额越低。（2）资本开放主要通过国民储蓄率和国民投资率来影响经常账户失衡，其中，资本开放对国民储蓄率产生显著的负向影响，对国民投资率产生正向影响。（3）对于不同发展水平的经济体，资本开放影响经常账户失衡的渠道存在差异，发展中经济体和发达经济体的资本开放分别主要通过国民储蓄渠道和国民投资渠道影响经常账户失衡。
［关键词］ 资本开放；资本流动；储蓄率；投资率；经常账户；外部经济失衡
［Abstract］ Based on the balance panel data of 88 economies, the authors of this paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of capital liberalization on current account imbalance. The empirical results show that, (1) there is a significant negative effect of capital liberalization on current account imbalance,and the higher the degree of the capital liberalization of economy, the lower its current account balance is; (2) the capital liberalization mainly affects the current account imba- lance through the national savings rate and the national investment rate, and it has a significant negative impact on the national savings rate and a positive impact on the national investment rate; (3) for the economies at different levels of development, there are differences in the channels through which the capital liberalization affects current account imbalance; the capital liberalization of the developing economies affects the current account imbalance through national savings channels, and that of the advanced economies affects the imbalance through national investment channels.
［Key words］ capital liberalization; capital flow; saving rate; investment rate; current account; external economic imbalance