从自贸区迈向自由贸易港：国际比较与中国的选择 —— 兼析厦门自由贸易港建设
朱孟楠 陈 冲 朱慧君（ 3 ）
From Free Trade Zone to Free Trade Port: International Comparison and China’s Choice
——Analysis of the Construction Xiamen Free Trade Port
ZHU Meng-nan CHEN Chong ZHU Hui-jun（ 3 ）
中国跨境服务贸易人民币结算的发展潜力
刘洪铎 陈晓珊（13）
The Development Potential of the RMB Settlement of China’s Cross-Border Service Trade
LIU Hong-duo CHEN Xiao-shan（13）
P2P网络借贷中历史投资经验对投资人决策的影响
彭 倩 秦 进（24）
The Impact of Historical Investment Experience on Investor’s Decision in P2P Network Leading
PENG Qian QIN Jin（24）
银行“长尾客户”资产配置行为—— 基于“有管户”与“无管户”分类的实证研究
咬 亮（40）
The Asset Allocation Behaviors of Bank “Long Tail Customers”——An Empirical Study Based on the Classification of “Managed Customers” and “Non-Managed Customers”
YAO Liang（40）
金融结构、金融波动与经济增长
李 振 陈忠阳 朱建林（54）
Financial Structure, Financial Volatility and Economic Growth
LI Zhen CHEN Zhong-yang ZHU Jian-lin（54）
政策风险指数与中国股市波动
贾德奎 李瑞海（66）
The Policy Risk Index and the Volatility of Chinese Stock Market
JIA De-kui Li Rui-hai（66）
从自贸区迈向自由贸易港：国际比较与中国的选择 ——兼析厦门自由贸易港建设
朱孟楠 陈 冲 朱慧君
［摘 要］自贸区发展应在税收制度、政府职能转变、金融开放、贸易监管和投融资管理等方面与国际高度开放贸易准则对接，形成改革引领作用，带动区域经济协调发展。建立中国特色的自贸港应在以下几方面所有创新：扩大税收优惠政策，优化政府管理体制，创造更有吸引力的投资环境，保证人员、金融、物流和公共服务这四个方面自由流动，做好配套的金融制度改革。
［关键词］自贸区；自贸港；厦门自由贸易港；一带一路
［Abstract］ The development of free trade zone should be in line with the highly-open international trade standards of taxation system, change in government functions, financial opening, trade supervision, investment and financing management, etc., so as to form a reform-leading role, and promote the coordinated development of regional economy. To establish free trade ports with Chinese characteristics, the innovations should be made in following aspects: expanding preferential tax policies, optimizing the government management system, creating a more attractive investment environment, guaranteeing free flow of personnel, finance, logistics and public services, and promoting the supporting reform of financial system.
［Key words］ free trade zone; free trade port; Xiamen Free Trade Port; Belt & Road
中国跨境服务贸易人民币结算的发展潜力
刘洪铎 陈晓珊
［摘 要］ 基于2009~2014年中国对全球100多个国家（地区）的跨境服务贸易人民币结算数据，本文研究中国跨境服务贸易人民币结算的实际水平相对于前沿水平的偏离程度。研究表明：中国跨境服务贸易人民币结算的下偏效应远大于上偏效应，对于不同收入类型和位于不同地域的贸易伙伴，中国的跨境服务贸易人民币结算水平均表现为下偏效应占主导地位，说明中国跨境服务贸易人民币结算业务的发展潜力存在明显不足。
［关键词］ 服务贸易；跨境人民币结算；人民币离岸中心；双边随机前沿模型
［Abstract］ Based on the RMB settlement data of China’s cross-border service trade during 2009-2014, the authors of this paper analyze the deviation of the real level to the frontier level of the RMB settlement in China’s cross-border service trade. The results of the paper show that downward effect of the RMB settlement is much greater than the upward effect; to the trading partners of different income types and located in different regions, the RMB settlement level show a downward-dominated effect, which indicates that the development potential of the RMB settlement in China’s cross-border service trade is obviously insufficient.
［Key words］ service trade; cross border RMB settlement; RMB offshore center; two-tier stochastic frontier model
P2P网络借贷中历史投资经验对投资人决策的影响
彭 倩 秦 进
［摘 要］ 本文基于“拍拍贷”平台的数据，研究P2P网络借贷中投资人的投资经验对于其投资行为的影响，即投资人会从以往的经历中学习，总结经验和教训，进而对投资策略做出调整，以获得更高的收益。本文将经验分为综合投资经验和失败的投资经验。经实证研究发现，随着综合投资经验的积累，投资人在借款项目的投标初期或投标晚期表现的同样积极；并且为了节约时间成本，富有经验的投资人倾向于选择低风险大额的投资组合。其次，随着失败的投资经验的积累，投资人更倾向于在借款项目的投标初期进行投资，并采取较为保守的投资策略。
［关键词］ P2P网络借贷；投资人经验；历史坏账率；投资策略
［Abstract］ Based on the data of Paipai Dai, the authors of this paper analyze the influence of investor’s investment experience on investment behavior in P2P network lending. The empirical analysis shows that, with the accumulation of comprehensive investment experience, the investors in the early stage of the tender of lending are as active as in late stage, in order to save the cost of time, the experienced investors are inclined to choose low-risk and large-scale investment portfolio. With the accumulation of failed investment experience, the investors are inclined to invest in the early stage of the tender of lending, and adopt a conservative investment strategy.
［Key words］ P2P network lending; investor’s experience; rate of historical bad debt; investment strategy
银行“长尾客户”资产配置行为 ——基于“有管户”与“无管户”分类的实证研究
咬 亮
［摘 要］ 本文以工商银行某分行“长尾”客户5年的资产配置数据为依据，将“长尾”客户进行“有管户”和“无管户”划分，对两类客户的资产配置与金融市场指数（价格）进行线性回归及Chow突变点检验。研究发现，“无管户”客户的资产配置与“有管户”有较多的趋同，“无管户”在基金资产和黄金资产的配置上与市场指标有显著相关，与“有管户”相比，不仅资产的波动较大，而且在市场遭受重创时下跌幅度更大。
［关键词］ 工商银行；金融资产；资产配置；“长尾”客户；羊群行为；客户关系管理
［Abstract］ Based on the 5-year asset allocation data of “long tail” customers of a branch of ICBC, the author divides the “long tail customers” into “managed customers” and “non-managed customers”, and makes a linear regression and a Chow test on the the asset allocation of the two types of customers and the financial market index (price). It’s found that the asset allocation of “non-managed customers” is similar to that of “managed customers”, and the allocation of fund assets and gold assets of “non-managed customers” are significantly related to market indicators; the volatility of the assets is larger, and the decline in the allocation is greater than that of the “managed customers” when the markets are hit heavily.
［Key words］ ICBC; financial asset; asset allocation; “long tail customer”; herd behavior; customer relationship management
金融结构、金融波动与经济增长
李 振 陈忠阳 朱建林
［摘 要］ 本文基于77个国家1980~2014年跨国面板数据，研究金融结构、金融波动对经济增长的影响。实证结果发现：金融结构市场化、金融波动和股市波动均会对经济增长产生抑制作用，但银行波动对经济增长的影响并不显著；金融波动和股市波动程度的加大还会进一步通过边际效用削弱金融结构市场化对经济增长的负面影响，且金融波动的影响要大于股市波动。这一结论对于静态面板与动态面板具有高度的一致性，但只在2008年全球金融危机发生前成立，在发达国家要比发展中国家的影响更大。
［关键词］ 金融结构；金融波动；股市波动；经济增长
［Abstract］ Based on the transnational panel data of 77 countries during 1980-2014, the authors of this paper systematically examine the impacts of financial structure and financial volatility on economic growth. The empirical results of the paper show that, the marketization of financial structure, financial volatility and stock market volatility have inhibitory effects on economic growth, but the impact of banking volatility on economic growth is not significant; the increase in financial volatility and stock market volatility further reduces the negative impact of the marketization of financial structure on economic growth through marginal utility, and the impact of financial volatility is greater than that of stock market volatility. The above results are high-degree consistent between the static panel data and the dynamic panel data, but they are established only before the global financial crisis in 2008, and the impact in developed countries is greater than that in developing countries.
［Key words］ financial structure; financial volatility; stock market volatility; economic growth
政策风险指数与中国股市波动
贾德奎 李瑞海
［摘 要］ 本文利用财经报纸上与股市政策风险相关的文章报道频度，构建政策风险指数以用于度量股市中由监管政策引致的风险或不确定性。基于政策风险指数的实证研究结果表明，政策风险指数与中国股市波动性之间存在着显著的正向关联，这种影响在牛市阶段明显大于熊市阶段。用EPU指数衡量的中国宏观经济政策不确定性对股市波动性没有显著影响。
［关键词］ 股市波动性；政策风险指数；监管政策；经济政策不确定性
［Abstract］ Based on the frequency of articles related to the risks of stock market policies in financial newspapers, the authors of this paper construct policy risk indexes to measure the risks or uncertainty of the stock markets caused by regulatory policies. The empirical analysis based on the policy risk indexes shows that there is a significant positive correlation between the policy risk indexes and the volatility of the Chinese stock markets, and the correlation is obviously greater during bull markets than that during bear market. China’s macroeconomic policy uncertainty measured by the EPU index has no significant impact on the volatility of stock markets.
［Key words］ volatility of stock market; policy risk index; regulatory policy; economic policy uncertainty