国际系统性金融风险防范模式的转变与启示 张陆洋 齐 想（ 3 ）
The Change in Prevention Mode of International Systematic Financial Risks and Its Revelation
ZHANG Lu-yang QI Xiang（ 3 ）
货币政策透明度与宏观经济稳定
—— 基于国际面板数据的经验分析 谭天骄 李 亘（ 8 ）
Monetary Policy Transparency and Macroeconomic Stability
——An Empirical Analysis Based on International Panel Data
TAN Tian-jiao LI Gen（ 8 ）
中国金融周期波动的产出缺口效应阐释与风险分析 陈守东 孙彦林（25）
The Analysis of the Output Gap Effect and Risks of Fluctuation in China’s Financial Cycle
CHEN Shou-dong SUN Yan-lin（25）
网络社交媒体提升了股票市场流动性吗？
—— 基于投资者互动视角的研究 李思龙 金德环 李 岩（35）
Does Online Social Media Increase the Liquidity of Stock Markets?
——A Study from the Perspective of Investor Interaction
LI Si-long JIN De-huan LI Yan（35）
短期国际资本流动逆转对中国货币政策传导机制的影响 郭 娜 刘潇潇（50）
The Impacts of the Reversal of Short-Term International Capital Flows on the Transmission Mechanism of China’s Monetary Policy GUO Na LIU Xiao-xiao（50）
异质性风险与企业现金持有
—— 基于股价崩盘风险视角的检验 白 旻 王仁祥 李雯婧（64）
Heterogeneity Risks and Corporate Cash Holdings
——A Testing Based on the Crash Risks of Stock Prices
BAI Min WANG Ren-xiang LI Wen-jing（64）
国际系统性金融风险防范模式的转变与启示
张陆洋 齐 想
［摘 要］ 2008年国际金融危机后，发达国家有针对性地制定相关法律政策及改革监管机构，加强系统重要性金融机构监管，扩大金融监管范围，加强对金融衍生品的监管，加强对金融消费者与投资者的保护。国际系统性金融风险防范模式的转变对我们的启示：应加强对系统性金融风险的研究，树立系统性金融风险监管理念，设立专业的风险监管机构，建立更加全面的系统性金融风险监管体系，注重消费者权益的保护。
［关键词］ 金融危机；系统性金融风险；金融监管；系统重要性金融机构
［Abstract］ After the international financial crisis in 2008, developed countries formulate laws and policies and reform regulatory agencies, strengthen the supervision of systemically-important financial institutions, expand the scope of financial supervision, strengthen the supervision of financial derivatives and the protection for financial consumers and investors. The revelation of the change in the prevention model of international systemic financial risks is that it’s necessary to strengthen the research on systematic financial risks, establish the concept of systematic financial risk supervision, set up professional risk supervision agencies, establish a more comprehensive supervision system of systematic financial risks, and pay attention to the protection of consumer’s rights.
［Key words］ financial crisis; systemic financial risk; financial supervision; systemically-important financial institution
货币政策透明度与宏观经济稳定
——基于国际面板数据的经验分析
谭天骄 李 亘
［摘 要］ 本文基于一个包含中央银行和私人部门的理论模型和国际面板VAR模型，考察货币政策透明度对稳定宏观经济的作用。结果显示：（1）提高货币政策透明度能够减少因中央银行和私人部门之间信息不对称导致的通胀波动；（2）一个单位正向货币政策透明度指数冲击对CPI、PPI通胀率缺口的影响呈现非对称性，但整体上表现出负向影响；（3）在PPI通胀率环境下一个单位正向M2增长率冲击短期内能够降低通胀和产出波动。
［关键词］ 货币政策透明度；实际干预；宏观经济稳定；PVAR模型
［Abstract］ Based on a theoretical model and an international panel VAR model including central banks and private sectors, the authors of this paper analyze the role of monetary policy transparency in macroeconomic stability. The results of the paper show that, (1)the increase in the transparency of monetary policy can reduce the inflationary fluctuation caused by the information asymmetry between central banks and private sectors; (2)the effects of the impact of one-unit positive impact of monetary policy transparency index on the inflation gaps of CPI and PPI are asymmetry, but negative as a whole; (3)in the environment of PPI inflation, one-unit positive impact of M2 growth rate can reduce the inflation and the output fluctuation in the short term.
［Key words］ monetary policy transpare
中国金融周期波动的产出缺口效应阐释与风险分析
陈守东 孙彦林
［摘 要］ 本文研究发现：金融周期波动变量包含了产出缺口的预测信息，其与经济不确定性对产出缺口均表现出明显的非线性区制时变特征；中国产出缺口自发性表现出明显的顺周期性质，宏观调控在要素投入与资源利用过程中十分必要；消费是中国经济稳定增长的重要着力点；中国的真实失业率低于自然失业率，物价的小幅回升与积极财政政策均有利于经济稳定增长。
［关键词］ 金融周期波动；产出缺口；稳增长；防风险；MS-TVTP
［Abstract］ The study of this paper shows that the variables of fluctuation in financial cycle contain the information of forecasting output gap, and they as well as the economic uncertainty show obvious non-linear time-varying characteristics in output gap; the spontaneity of China’s output gap is obviously pro-cyclical, and the macro-control is necessary in the process of factor input and resource utilization; the consumption is an important power to promote the steady growth of China’s economy; the China’s real unemployment rate is lower than the natural unemployment rate, and the slight increase in price and active fiscal policy are conducive to the steady economic growth.
［Key words］ fluctuation in financial cycle; output gap; steady growth; prevent risk; MS-TVTP
网络社交媒体提升了股票市场流动性吗？
—— 基于投资者互动视角的研究
李思龙 金德环 李 岩
［摘 要］ 本文从投资者互动的角度研究其对股票市场流动性的影响，从股东基数和信息不对称两方面分析投资者互动影响股票流动性的机理，结果表明：（1）投资者互动增加了上市公司的股东基数，表明投资者互动驱动了投资者交易股票。（2）信息不对称越大，投资者互动对股票流动性的促进作用越强，说明投资者互动减少了投资者间的信息不对称，降低了非知情交易者要求的信息补偿。
［关键词］ 社交媒体；投资者互动；股东基数；信息不对称；股票流动性
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper research the impacts of investor interaction on the liquidity of stock markets from the perspective of investor interaction, and analyze the mechanism of investor interactions affecting stock liquidity from shareholder quantity and information asymmetry, the results of the paper show that, (1) the investor interaction results in the increase in shareholder quantity, which indicates that the investor interaction promotes the investors to trade stocks; (2) the greater the information asymmetry is, the stronger the investor interaction promotes the stock liquidity, which indicates that the interaction reduces the information asymmetry between investors and the information compensation required by uninformed traders.
［Key words］ social media; investor interaction; shareholder quantity; information asymmetry; stock liquidity
短期国际资本流动逆转对中国货币政策传导机制的影响
郭 娜 刘潇潇
［摘 要］ 本文通过构建小型开放经济环境下的DSGE模型，研究短期国际资本流动逆转在不同货币规则下对货币政策传导机制的影响。结果表明，短期国际资本流动逆转会对利率、汇率产生持续的影响，它通过作用于中国货币政策传导机制来影响货币供应量，进而影响产出、投资、通货膨胀等经济变量，单一目标货币政策规则下通货膨胀与产出波动更为强烈，其货币政策有效性低于多种目标制的货币政策。
［关键词］ 国际资本流动逆转；货币政策传导机制；货币政策规则；DSGE模型
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper construct a DSGE model in a small open economy environment to research the impacts of the reversal of short-term international capital flows on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in different currency rules. The results of the paper show the reversal of short-term international capital flows impacts the interests and exchange rates continuously, and affects the monetary supply by affecting the transmission mechanism of China’s monetary policy, and then affects the output, investment and inflation and other economic variables; the fluctuation in inflation and output is greater in single-target monetary policy rules, and the effectiveness of monetary policy is lower than that in a multiple-target system.
［Key words］ reversal of international capital flow; transmission mechanism of monetary policy; monetary policy rule; DSGE model
异质性风险与企业现金持有
——基于股价崩盘风险视角的检验
白 旻 王仁祥 李雯婧
［摘 要］ 本文以中国A股上市公司2003~2015年的数据作为研究样本，探究股价崩盘风险对企业现金持有水平的影响。结果表明：（1）其他条件不变时，股价崩盘风险的增大将会显著增加公司现金持有水平，且其作用对于非国有企业更为显著；（2）宽松的外部融资环境可缓解股价崩盘风险对企业现金持有水平的影响，而外部融资环境的不确定性会加剧股价崩盘风险对企业现金持有水平的影响；（3）企业股价崩盘风险越大，现金持有价值越低。进一步研究发现，股价崩盘风险的增大提升了企业的融资约束，并体现在其债务融资能力上。
［关键词］ 股价崩盘风险；现金持有；信息不对称；融资约束
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the data of Chinese A-share listed companies during 2003-2015 as samples to research the impacts of the crash risks of stock prices on the level of corporate cash holdings. The results show that, (1)if other conditions remain unchanged, the increase in the crash risks of stock prices will significantly increase the cash holding level, and the effect is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises; (2)the loose external financing environment can reduce the impacts of the crash risks on the cash holding level, and the uncertainty of external financing environment increases the impacts; (3)the greater the crash risks are, the lower the value of cash holdings. The further research shows that the increase in the crash risks intensifies corporate financing constraints, which is reflected in the corporate debt-financing capacity.
［Key words］ crash risk of stock price; cash holding; information asymmetry; financing constraint