中国货币政策的民间投资产业结构效应 彭明生 范从来（ 3 ）
The Effects of China’s Monetary Policy on Private-Investment Industry Structure
PENG Ming-sheng FAN Cong-lai（ 3 ）
银保协作、政府助保贷款与银行信用风险分散—— 基于信息甄别与信用增进的双重视角 顾海峰（14）
Bank-Guarantee Cooperation, Government Guaranteed Loans and Dispersion of Bank Credit Risks ——Based on the Perspectives of Information Screening and Credit Improving
GU Hai-feng（14）
综合化经营监管对交叉性金融风险的影响 张萌萌 叶耀明（28）
The Impacts of Comprehensive Operation Regulation on Cross-Financial Risks
ZHANG Meng-meng YE Yao-ming（28）
中国金融发展水平的空间动态差异与影响因素 程 翔 王曼怡 田 昕 康萌萌（43）
Spatial Dynamic Differences and Influencing Factors of China’s Financial Development Level
CHENG Xiang WANG Man-yi TIAN Xin KANG Meng-meng（43）
风险溢价、非流动性风险预警与基金净值暴跌风险—— 基于开放式股票型基金的研究 丁春霞 王唯先 于 瑾 侯伟相（55）
Risk Premium, Illiquid Risks Alert and Crash Risks of Fund Net Value——A Study Based on Open-End Stock Funds
DING Chun-xia WANG Wei-xian YU Jin HOU Wei-xiang（55）
风险结构错配视角下股价崩盘风险形成机理—— 理论推导与实证检验 董永琦 宋光辉 许 林 崔毅安（68）
The Formation Mechanism of Stock Price Crash Risks from the Perspective of Risk Structure Mismatch ——Theoretical Derivation and Empirical Test
DONG Yong-qi SONG Guang-hui XU Lin CUI Yi-an（68）
中国货币政策的民间投资产业结构效应
彭明生 范从来
［摘 要］ 本文运用SVAR模型分析中国货币政策对民间投资产业结构的影响。研究结果显示，货币政策宽松对民间投资的促进作用较弱。分产业来看，货币供给增加对第一、三产业民间投资起到较弱的推动作用，但对第二产业民间投资产生抑制作用；利率下降对第二产业民间投资产生推动作用，对第一产业民间投资产生较弱的抑制作用，而对第三产业民间投资的影响不明显。该研究结果表明货币政策对民间投资的总体影响较小，并且难以有效地推动民间投资的产业结构优化升级。
［关键词］ 货币政策；货币供给；利率；民间投资；产业结构；SVAR模型
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the SVAR model to analyze the impacts of China’s monetary policy on the private-investment industry structure. The results of the paper show that the loose monetary policy has a weak promoting effect on the private investment. In terms of industries, the increase in money supply has a weak promoting effect on private investment in the primary and tertiary industries, and a weak inhibiting effect on private investment in the secondary industry; the decline in interest rates has a promoting effect on private investment in the secondary industry, and a week inhibiting effect on private investment in the primary industry, but has no significant effect on private investment in the tertiary industry. The results of this paper show that the overall impact of monetary policy on private investment is small, and it is difficult to promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure of private investment effectively.
［Key words］ monetary policy; money supply; interest rate; private investment; industrial structure; SVAR model
银保协作、政府助保贷款与银行信用风险分散——基于信息甄别与信用增进的双重视角
顾海峰
［摘 要］ 本文研究政府助保贷款实现银行信用风险分散的内在机理，研究结果表明：在政府助保贷款下，助保金池的信息甄别与信用增进双重功能促使银行风险运营效率曲线沿梯度场方向发生上移，从而改进银行风险运营效率；助保金池通过信息甄别降低银行潜在贷款损失，通过信用增进分担银行贷款风险；助保金池对银行信用风险分散的贡献度主要取决于企业平均信用等级与银行事先设定的贷款信用阈值之间的信用差及贷款边际损失平均值，且风险分散贡献度与信用差及贷款边际损失平均值均呈正相关关系。
［关键词］ 银保协作；政府助保贷款；银行信用风险分散；信息甄别；信用增进
［Abstract］ This paper presents an analysis of the internal mechanism that the government guaranteed loan achieves the dispersion of bank credit risks. The results of the paper show that, by the government-guaranteed loan, the dual function of information screening and credit improving of the guaranteed capital pool makes the curve of bank risk operation efficiency move upward along the gradient field direction, thus improving the bank risk operation efficiency; the guaranteed capital pool reduces potential loan loss of banks through information screening, and shares loan risks of banks through credit improving; the contribution degree of the guaranteed capital pool to the dispersion depends mainly on the credit difference between the average credit rating of firms and the credit threshold set by banks, and the average marginal loss of loans, and the degree shows a positive correlation with the credit difference and the average marginal loss of loans.
［Key words］ bank-guarantee cooperation; government-guaranteed loan; dispersion of bank credit risk; information screening; credit improving
综合化经营监管对交叉性金融风险的影响
张萌萌 叶耀明
［摘 要］ 本文测度中国金融子行业（银行业、证券业与保险业）间的动态风险相关性，并验证调整分业经营壁垒的综合化经营监管政策对跨行业交叉金融风险的影响效应。研究表明，综合化经营监管总体上对交叉性金融风险的影响作用较小。内部综合化经营壁垒的放松对跨行业交叉风险具有微小的正向作用；外部综合化经营壁垒的放松对交叉风险的正向影响程度相对较大，但金融控股公司在一定程度上发挥了稳定风险的作用。
［关键词］ 交叉性金融风险；金融监管；综合化经营；DCC-CARRX模型
［Abstract］ This paper presents an evaluation of dynamic risk correlation between China’s financial sectors (banking, securities and insurance), and a verification of the impacts of comprehensive operation policy to adjust comprehensive operation barriers on cross-financial risks. The results of the paper show that the impacts of comprehensive operation regulation on the cross-financial risks are small overall, and loosening the internal comprehensive operation barriers has a small positive impact on the cross-financial risk; loosening the external comprehensive operation barriers has a small positive impact, but financial holding companies play a role of stabilizing risks to some extent.
［Key words］ cross-financial risk; financial regulation; comprehensive operation; DCC-CARRX model
中国金融发展水平的空间动态差异与影响因素
程 翔 王曼怡 田 昕 康萌萌
［摘 要］ 本文运用探索性空间统计技术对2005-2015年中国31个省区市研究影响区域金融发展水平的因素及其特性。结果表明：中国区域金融发展不平衡依旧存在，金融超前区和滞后区的极差明显，区域间金融发展水平具有较为显著的空间相关性，且空间溢出效应明显；经济发展水平、科技发展水平在空间计量模型和地理加权回归模型中均表现为显著的正向影响，工业化水平在上述两个模型成为金融发展的反向制约因素，对外开放水平、基础设施水平、政府规制水平在空间计量模型中是正向因素，但在地理加权回归模型中双向变动。
［关键词］ 金融发展水平；空间自相关；空间计量回归；地理加权回归
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis to analyze the characteristics of the regional financial development level of China’s 31 provinces , autonomous regions and municipalities during 2005-2015 and the factors to impact the level. The results indicate that the regional financial development imbalance in China still exists; the gap between financial advanced areas and lagging areas is very obvious; the inter-regional financial development level shows a significant spatial-correlation, and the spatial spillover effect is obvious;the economic development level and the technological development level show significant positive impacts in the spatial econometric model and the geographically-weighted regression model, and the industrialization level becomes a negative factor to impact financial development in the above two models; the external opening level, infrastructure level and government regulation level are positive factors; but they vary in both directions in the geographically-weighted regression model.
［Key words］ financial development level; spatial auto-correlation; spatial econometric regression; geographically-weighted regression
风险溢价、非流动性风险预警与基金净值暴跌风险——基于开放式股票型基金的研究
丁春霞 王唯先 于 瑾 侯伟相
［摘 要］ 本文研究基金非流动性风险与基金净值暴跌风险之间的关系。研究表明：基金非流动性风险敏感系数可较好地量化基金非流动性风险；基金非流动性风险预警指标可较好地预警基金非流动性风险；股票型基金面临的非流动性风险越大，其净值暴跌风险也越大；基金非流动性风险净暴露越大、重大预警次数越多，基金净值暴跌风险越大。
［关键词］ 非流动性风险；股票型基金；非流动性风险预警；基金净值暴跌风险
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper analyze the relationship between illiquidity risks of funds and crash risks of fund net value. The results of the paper show that the the illiquidity risks of funds can be quantified well by the sensitivity coefficient of the illiquidity risks of funds; the alert indexes of the illiquidity risks of funds can predict the illiquidity risks of the funds well; the greater the illiquidity risks of stock funds are, the greater the crash risks of fund net value; the greater the net exposure of the illiquidity risks and the number of major alerts is, the greater the crash risks of fund net value.
［Key words］ illiquidity risk；stock fund；illiquidity risk alert；crash risk of fund net value
风险结构错配视角下股价崩盘风险形成机理——理论推导与实证检验
董永琦 宋光辉 许 林 崔毅安
［摘 要］ 本文基于投资者风险偏好视角，结合供需理论提出证券市场上风险结构错配的概念，并通过数理推导得出股价崩盘风险是风险结构错配的增函数。基于此，选取2007~2016年中国2 549家上市公司和882家股票型基金作为研究样本进行检验，结果表明：（1）风险结构错配与股价崩盘风险之间的相关系数显著为正，风险结构错配对股价崩盘风险具有显著的正向影响；（2）风险结构错配是股价崩盘风险的Granger原因，且风险结构错配对股价崩盘风险的影响具有持续性。
［关键词］ 风险结构错配；投资者风险偏好；证券风险特征；股价崩盘风险
［Abstract］ From the perspective of investor’s risk bias, the authors of this paper use the theory of supply and demand to propose the concept of risk structure mismatch in the securities market, and reach a conclusion by the mathematics derivation that the risk of stock price collapse is an increasing function of risk structure mismatch. Based on the conclusion, authors use China’s 2 549 listed companies and 882 equity-based funds during 2007-2016 as samples for the test. The results show that, (1) the correlation coefficient between the risk structure mismatch and the risk of stock price collapse is significantly positive, and risk structure mismatch has a significant positive impact on the risk of stock price collapse; (2) the risk structure mismatch is the Granger cause of the risk of stock price collapse, and the impact of the risk structure mismatch on the risk of stock price collapse is sustainable.
［Key words］ risk structure mismatch; investor’s risk bias; characteristics of securities risk ; risk of stock price collapse