中国资本市场的改革、创新与风险防范
曹凤岐（ 3 ）
Reform, Innovation and Risk Prevention of China’s Capital Markets
CAO Feng-qi（ 3 ）
宏观审慎政策框架能否有效抑制金融风险？——基于宏观审慎评估的视角
李义举 冯 乾（ 9 ）
Can the Macro-Prudential Policy Framework Effectively Curb Financial Risks?——Based on the Perspective of Macro-Prudential Assessment
LI Yi-ju FENG Qian（ 9 ）
债务风险累积与商业银行不良贷款形成
张海亮 叶 群 王海军（21）
The Accumulation of Debt Risk and the Formation of Non-Performing Loans in Commercial Banks
ZHANG Hai-liang YE Qun WANG Hai-jun（21）
人民币汇率弹性变动与货币政策目标
田国强 尹 航（31）
Flexible Changes in RMB Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy Objectives
TIAN Guo-qiang YIN Hang（31）
扩大SDR使用与人民币国际化——基于国际经验的比较借鉴
王盼盼 石建勋（42）
The Expanding Use of SDR and the Internationalization of RMB——Based on the Comparison of International Experience
WANG Pan-pan SHI Jian-xun（42）
P2P网络借贷平台的利率定价合理吗？——基于“人人贷”的经验证据
彭红枫 徐瑞峰（61）
Is the Interest Rate Pricing in P2P Network Lending Platform Reasonable?——Empirical Evidence from “Renrendai”
PENG Hong-feng XU Rui-feng（61）
中国资本市场的改革、创新与风险防范
曹凤岐
［摘 要］ 实现党的十九大提出的“两步走”的战略目标必须有金融配合。提高直接融资比重，促进多层次资本市场健康发展非常重要。中国资本市场必须进一步改革与创新。中国资本市场发展的战略目标是建成公正、透明、高效的市场，为中国经济资源的有效配置做出重要贡献，成为更加开放和具有国际竞争力的市场。必须加强金融监管，健全金融监管体系，守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。
［关键词］ 直接融资；多层次资本市场；金融风险；金融监管
［Abstract］ To achieve the strategic goal of “two-step” proposed by the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the financial cooperation is needed. It is very important to increase the percentage of direct financing and promote the healthy development of multi-level capital markets. China’s capital markets should be further reformed and innovated. The strategic goals of the development of China’s capital markets include followings: to be fair, transparent and efficient markets, to make an important contribution to the effective allocation of China’s economic resources, and to become more open and more internationally competitive markets. It is necessary to strengthen financial supervision, improve financial supervision system, and maintain the bottom line of systemic financial risks.
［Key words］ direct financing; multi-level capital market; financial risk; financial supervision
宏观审慎政策框架能否有效抑制金融风险？——基于宏观审慎评估的视角
李义举 冯 乾
［摘 要］ 本文以破产风险Z值来代表商业银行的风险承担状况，基于宏观审慎评估视角实证分析宏观审慎政策框架的作用效果。结果表明：宏观审慎评估会降低商业银行的风险承担，因而宏观审慎政策能够显著抑制金融风险；由于存在显著非对称性，宏观审慎评估的效应差异显著存在，对于资本充足率相对较低、规模较小的银行，宏观审慎评估对其风险承担的影响更大。
［关键词］ 宏观审慎政策；金融风险；宏观审慎评估；政策效果
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the Z-value of bankruptcy risks to represent the risk-taking of commercial banks, and empirically analyze the effects of macro-prudential policy framework from the perspective of macro-prudential assessment. The results of the paper show that the macro-prudential assessment can reduce the risk exposure of commercial banks, so macro-prudential policies can significantly curb financial risks; due to the significant asymmetry, the effect difference of macro-prudential assessment is significant, and for the banks that their capital adequacy ratios are relatively low and the scales are relatively small, the macro-prudential assessment has a greater impact on their risk taking.
［Key words］ macro-prudential policy; financial risk; macro-prudential assessment; policy effect
债务风险累积与商业银行不良贷款形成
张海亮 叶 群 王海军
［摘 要］ 本文通过分析政府、企业和居民部门对金融部门的债务风险传导过程，研究商业银行不良贷款的形成机制。研究发现：（1）政府、企业和居民部门债务风险累积将导致商业银行不良贷款规模扩大；（2）商业银行信贷分布过度集中会导致商业银行不良率上升；（3）收益的激励效应对非上市城商行、农商行影响更大。进一步分析发现，金融部门承担了实体部门转移的风险。
［关键词］ 不良贷款；债务风险；商业银行；非金融部门；风险转移
［Abstract］ The authors of is paper research the formation mechanism of non-performing loans of commercial banks by analyzing the process of the debt risks of government, enterprises and residents transmitting to the financial sector. The results of the paper show that, (1) the accumulation of debt risks of government, enterprises and residents will lead to the expansion of non-performing loans of commercial banks; (2) the excessive concentration of loan distribution of commercial banks will lead to an increase in the ratio of non-performing loans of commercial banks; (3) the incentive effect of income has a greater impact on the non-listed city commercial banks and rural commercial banks than other banks. The further analysis shows that the financial sector has assumed the risks transferred by the real industrial sector.
［Key words］ non-performing loan; debt risk; commercial banks; non-financial sector; risk transfer
人民币汇率弹性变动与货币政策目标
田国强 尹 航
［摘 要］ 本文基于开放经济的均衡模型，实证分析汇率弹性与货币政策目标间的相互作用机制。研究结论表明：在新古典的货币政策目标框架中，较低的汇率弹性具有较高的通胀管理效率，而汇率弹性的增加有助于通过汇率波动释放增长压力。央行在产出与通胀目标间的权衡决定了汇率弹性的实际水平。当人民币汇率进入升值通道时，央行是否愿意牺牲一定的货币政策效力而坚持推进人民币汇率市场化进程，将决定着未来人民币汇率弹性的变动。
［关键词］ 人民币汇率；汇率弹性；货币政策目标；升值恐惧；央行反应函数
［Abstruct］ Based on the equilibrium model of open economy, this paper presents an empirical analysis of the interaction mechanism between exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy objectives. The conclusions of the paper indicate that, in the framework of the neoclassical monetary policy, a lower exchange rate flexibility has a higher inflation management efficiency, and the increase in exchange rate flexibility helps release the growth pressure through exchange rate fluctuation. The central bank’s trade-off between output and inflation targets determines the actual level of exchange rate flexibility. When the RMB exchange rate enters the appreciation channel, whether the central bank is willing to give up certain monetary policy effects and insist on promoting the marketization of the RMB exchange rate will determine the future changes in the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.
［Key words］ RMB exchange rate; exchange rate flexibility; monetary policy objective; appreciation fear; function of central bank response
扩大SDR使用与人民币国际化——基于国际经验的比较借鉴
王盼盼 石建勋
［摘 要］ 本文实证分析SDR组成货币在SDR的权重与其占全球外汇储备份额的关系，以及扩大SDR使用对二者关系的影响。结果表明：一种货币在SDR的权重变化对该货币占全球储备份额的影响为正，扩大SDR使用有助于增强此正向影响的程度，而且这样的增强效应在发展中国家的外汇储备比发达国家更显著。上述结果的启示在于，扩大SDR使用应成为入篮后推动人民币国际化的重要环节之一。
［关键词］ SDR；SDR篮子权重；人民币国际化；国际外汇储备结构
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper empirically analyze the relationship between the weight of the SDR-currency in SDR and its share of global foreign exchange reserves, and the impact of expanding use of SDR on the relationship. The results of the paper show that the impact of the change in the currency’s weight in SDR on the global reserve share of the currency is positive, and the expanding use of SDR will help further enhance the positive impact of the share, and the enhancing effect in the foreign exchange reserves of developing countries is more significant than that of developed countries. The lesson of the above results is that the expanding use of SDR should be one of the important steps to promote the internationalization of the RMB after RMB entering the basket.
［Key words］ SDR; SDR basket weight; RMB internationalization; structure of international foreign exchange reserve
P2P网络借贷平台的利率定价合理吗？——基于“人人贷”的经验证据
彭红枫 徐瑞峰
［摘 要］ 本文基于“人人贷”平台的历史数据，研究P2P网络借贷平台的利率定价，结果表明：仅有12.18%的贷款项目利率定价基本合理；高信用等级贷款项目利率大多被高估，低信用等级贷款项目利率大多被低估；利率被低估的借款人所属行业大多为低端服务业及其它聘用人员流动性较强的服务行业，利率被高估的借款人所属行业则大多属于农业、制造业等劳动密集型产业，而其他行业理论利率与真实利率差异不大。
［关键词］ 互联网金融；P2P；违约风险；风险溢价；利率定价
［Abstract］ Based on the historical data of the “Renrendai”, the authors of this paper analyze the interest rate pricing in P2P network lending platforms. The results of the paper show that only 12.18% interest rate pricing of the loans is basically reasonable; the interest rates of high-credit-class loans are mostly overestimated, and the interest rates of low-credit-class loans are mostly underestimated; the most borrowers whose interest rates are underestimated belong to low-end service industries or other service industries with high-flowing hiring, and the most borrowers whose interest rates are overestimated belong to labor-intensive industries such as agriculture, manufacture, but the theoretical interest rates of other industries are not much different from real interest rates.
［Key words］ Internet finance; P2P; default risk; risk premium; interest rate pricing