金融创新如何推动高质量发展：新结构经济学的视角
林毅夫 付才辉 任晓猛
How Financial Innovation Promotes High Quality Development: A Perspective of New Structural Economics
LIN Yi-fu, FU Cai-hui, REN Xiao-meng
内部控制对银行信贷风险的影响——信息不对称与代理成本的中介效应
王 蕾 张向丽 池国华
The Impact of Internal Control on Bank Credit Risk——Intermediary Effects of Information Asymmetry and Agent Cost
WANG Lei, ZHANG Xiang-li, CHI Guo-hua
IFRS9实施对商业银行影响的评估及政策建议
熊启跃 倪凯扬
The Assessment of the Impacts of IFRS9 on Commercial Banks and the Policy Suggestions
XIONG Qi-yue, NI Kai-yang
地方政府债务的非线性与异质性经济增长效应
徐家杰 姚耀军
The Nonlinear and Heterogeneous Effects of the Local Government’s Debts on Economic Growth
XU Jia-jie, YAO Yao-jun
利率市场化必然会降低商业银行盈利能力吗？——基于信贷资源配置效率的探讨
王 灿 刘子宁 李 栋
Will Interest Rate Liberalization Reduce the Profitability of Commercial Banks?——An Analysis Based on the Efficiency of Credit Resource Allocation
WANG Can, LIU Zi-ning, LI Dong
城乡二元转型、政府干预与农户融资约束放松
许月丽 王 飞 刘志媛
Transformation of Urban-Rural Dual Structure, Government Intervention and Weakening the Financing Constraints of Farmers
XU Yue-li, WANG Fei, LIU Zhi-yuan
金融素养与信用消费行为——以信用卡为例
孟德锋 田 亮 严伟祥
Financial Literacy and Credit Consumption Behavior——A Study Based on the Sample of Credit Cards
MENG De-feng, TIAN Liang, YAN Wei-xiang
金融创新如何推动高质量发展：新结构经济学的视角
林毅夫 付才辉 任晓猛
我国金融创新的内涵从需求特色来讲就是金融精准支持的金融产品创新，从改革特色来讲就是金融结构改革的制度创新。现代化的金融体系要以服务现代化经济体系为金融创新的根本原则。目前中国金融体系的根本问题不在于总量不足和水平不高，而在于结构性矛盾，导致其服务实体经济的能力低下，跟不上高质量发展的需求。各地应该结合自身禀赋结构特征因地制宜地采取因势利导的金融创新，以更精准地满足本地实际的金融需求，而不是采取“一刀切”式的做法来落实国家的金融规划与金融政策或模仿其他地区的金融创新。
The characteristic connotation of China’s financial innovation is the financial product innovation of financial precise support in terms of demand, and the institutional innovation of financial structure reform in terms of reform. In a modern financial system, serving the modern economic system should be regarded as the fundamental principle of financial innovation. At present, it is not the fundamental problem of China’s financial system that the total amount is insufficient or the level is not high, but that the structural contradiction results in the financial system’s low ability to serve the real economy and keep up with the high quality development. The localities should take advantage of their own endowment structures and implement financial innovations according to their local conditions and actual financial demands, rather than adopting a “one size fits all” approach to implement national financial planning and policies or imitating the financial innovation of other localities.
内部控制对银行信贷风险的影响——信息不对称与代理成本的中介效应
王 蕾 张向丽 池国华
本文以2007-2015年A股上市银行为样本，采用固定效应和动态面板模型检验内部控制对银行信贷风险的影响。结果表明，内部控制能够显著降低银行信贷风险；内部控制的风险防控作用在系统重要性银行中更加显著；进一步从信息不对称和代理成本两个视角，探究内部控制抑制银行信贷风险的具体路径，结果发现，代理成本在内部控制抑制银行信贷风险的影响中发挥中介效应，而信息不对称并没有发挥这一作用。
Based on the samples of A-share listed banks during 2007-2015, the authors of this paper use fixed effect and dynamic panel models to test the impact of internal control on bank credit risk. The results of the paper show that the internal control can significantly reduce bank credit risk; the internal control in risk prevention plays a more significant role in systemically-important banks; from the perspective of information asymmetry and agency cost, the paper further explores the specific path of internal control to curb bank credit risk and the result shows that agency cost, rather than information asymmetry, plays an intermediary role in internal control’s curbing effect on bank credit risk.
IFRS9实施对商业银行影响的评估及政策建议
熊启跃 倪凯扬
本文基于欧洲大型银行和中资H股上市银行财务数据，分析《国际财务报告准则（第9号）》（IFRS9）实施对银行的影响。研究结论表明：IFRS9实施使银行资产“缩水”，加大资产减值准备计提幅度，侵蚀银行核心一级资本；更重要的是，IFRS9对银行风险偏好产生较大影响，银行对长期贷款、信用贷款和高风险贷款的投放意愿明显降低。随着时间的推移和实施银行的增多，IFRS9对银行资产配置行为的影响会持续发酵并放大，这些行为变化对实体经济产生的影响值得关注。
Based on the financial data of of some large banks in Europe and H-share listed banks in China, the authors of this paper analyze the impacts of International Financial Reporting Standards (No.9) (IFRS9) on banks. The conclusions of the paper show that the implementation of the IFRS9 could result in reduction in bank assets, increase in asset impairment provision and reduction in core tier 1 capital of banks; what is more, the IFRS9 has a great impact on the risk preference of banks, and reduce the banks’ willingness to issue long-term loans, credit loans and high-risk loans; In the long run, it’s necessary to pay more attention to the increasing impact of IFRS9 on bank asset allocation and the real economy.
地方政府债务的非线性与异质性经济增长效应
徐家杰 姚耀军
本文估算中国地方政府的直接债务规模，并通过PSTR模型考察其经济增长效应。研究表明，债务对经济增长的影响在高低两个机制中转换，表现出非线性，其中低机制即促进效应占据主导；但若债务产出比超越临界值54%，则促进效应将被抑制效应取代；债务产出比临界值相对较低主要与财政支出低效率和预算软约束两大因素有关，暗示债务积累对经济增长的正效应会较快地出现逆转；债务产出比临界值具有省际异质性，近年来与对外开放度的省际差异高度负相关。
The authors of this paper estimate the direct debt scale of Chinese local governments and analyze its effect on economic growth with the PSTR model. The results of the paper show that the impact of debts on economic growth is non-linear and transforming between low- and high-mechanism, with the low-mechanism, i.e. promotion effect, as the dominant; when the debt-to-output ratio rises over the threshold of 54%, the promotion effect would be replaced by the inhibition effect; the relatively low threshold of debt-output ratio is mainly because of inefficient fiscal expenditure and soft budget constraint, which suggests that the positive effect of debt accumulation on economic growth will be reversed soon; the threshold of debt-output ratio is provincially heterogeneous, and highly and negatively related to the level-difference of provincial opening up in recent years.
利率市场化必然会降低商业银行盈利能力吗？——基于信贷资源配置效率的探讨
王 灿 刘子宁 李 栋
本文研究利率市场化对商业银行盈利能力的影响。研究结果表明，利率市场化对商业银行盈利能力的影响有两种效应，利差效应倾向于降低表内业务利润，而由信贷资源配置效率提升所产生的再配置效应则倾向于提高商业银行的利润，最终影响取决于这两种效应的相对强弱。利用理论模型和数值模拟，本文证实了在中国再配置效应可能大于利差效应，因而利率市场化有可能提升商业银行的利润水平。
The authors of this paper research the impact of interest rate liberalization on the profitability of commercial banks. The results of the paper show that the interest rate liberalization has two kinds of effects on the profitability of commercial banks; the interest rate spread effect tends to reduce the profit of the balance-sheet business, while the re-allocation effect tends to increase the profit of commercial banks due to the improved efficiency of credit resource allocation; and the overall impact depends on which effect is greater. Based on the theoretical models and numerical simulations, the authors conclude that the re-allocation effect in China tends to be greater than the interest rate spread effect, thus the interest rate liberalization might increase the profit of commercial banks.
城乡二元转型、政府干预与农户融资约束放松
许月丽 王 飞 刘志媛
本文从长期动态的视角考察政府干预与城乡二元转型如何影响农村金融发展的问题。研究结果表明，二元转型与政府干预都对弱化农户融资约束具有显著作用，但二元转型的作用更强；政府干预的有效性具有对二元转型阶段的敏感性，政府干预须随二元转型阶段变化而适时变化；农户融资约束对于政府干预的政策类型具有很强的敏感性，其中政府介入担保最为有效；农户融资约束对于二元转型所引致的不同机制的反应也不相同，其中，二元转型所引起的农业经营组织形式变化，对于农户融资约束的放松效果最为明显。
From the long-term and dynamic perspective, the authors of this paper analyze how the government intervention and the transformation of urban-rural dual structure impact the rural financial development. The results of the paper show that both transformation of dual structure and government intervention could significantly weaken the financing constraints of farmers, and the effect of structure transformation is stronger; the government intervention is sensitive to the transformation phase of the dual structure, and should keep pace with the transformation; the financing constraints of farmers are very sensitive to different types of government intervention policies, with the government guarantee as the most effective relief; the financing constraints of farmers also react differently to the mechanisms caused by the transformation, with changing the organization form of agriculture as the most effective relief of the constraints.
金融素养与信用消费行为——以信用卡为例
孟德锋 田 亮 严伟祥
本文以信用卡为例，分析金融素养对消费者信用消费行为的影响。结论如下：（1）消费者金融素养对其信用消费需求有积极的促进作用；（2）提高消费者金融素养，能显著提升信用消费对短期消费和长期潜在消费的刺激作用；（3）提高消费者金融素养，可以显著减少其高成本的信用消费行为。因此，提高消费者金融素养，是促进信用消费发展的有效途径。
Based on the sample of credit cards, the authors of this paper analyze the impacts of financial literacy on credit consumption behavior. The conclusions are as follows: (1) consumers’ financial literacy has a positive effect on their credit consumption demand; (2) improving financial literacy in credit consumption could significantly stimulate short-term consumption and potential long-term consumption; (3) improving financial literacy could significantly reduce high-cost credit consumption. Therefore, improving consumers’ financial literacy is an effective promotion to credit consumption.