企业部门杠杆率结构性特征研究——基于影子银行视角
陈丽萍 吴 军 杨 戈（3）
A Study of the Structural Characteristics of Leverages in Enterprise Sector——From the Perspective of Shadow Banking
CHEN Li-ping WU Jun YANG Ge（3）
目标企业创新能力对并购双方收益的影响——基于中国A股市场的实证分析
曹桂全 刘晓曦 谭庆美（15）
The Impact of Innovative Capacity of Target Enterprise on the Bilateral Benefits of M&A——An Empirical Analysis of Chinese A-Share Markets
CAO Gui-quan LIU Xiao-xi TAN Qing-mei（15）
金融服务实体经济的效率测度及影响因素——基于绿色发展视角
游士兵 杨 芳（29）
The Efficiency Measurement and Influencing Factors of Financial Support for the Real Economy——From the Perspective of Green Development
YOU Shi-bing YANG Fang（29）
第三方支付、创业与家庭收入
尹志超 张逸兴 于玖田（45）
Third-Party Payment, Entrepreneurship and Household Income
YIN Zhi-chao ZHANG Yi-xing YU Jiu-tian（45）
证券投资基金的择时与风格转换——基于市场流动性视角的研究
高金窑 王庆瑜（58）
The Timing and Style Shifting Abilities of Mutual Funds——A Research from the Perspective of Market Liquidity
GAO Jin-yao WANG Qing-yu（58）
中国三大城市群城市经济引力测度及对京津冀协同发展的启示
中国人民银行营业管理部课题组（71）
The Measurements of Urban Economic Gravity of China’s Three Agglomerations and Its Enlightenment to the Collaborative Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
The Research Group of The People’s Bank of China-Operations Office（71）
企业部门杠杆率结构性特征研究—— 基于影子银行视角
陈丽萍 吴 军 杨 戈
［摘 要］ 本文从高风险企业作为影子银行资金需求者的角度，通过理论推导和实证检验，发现在加息条件下，高风险企业杠杆率攀升幅度是低风险企业的4倍且持续时间更长。这不仅与高风险企业利润下滑幅度大且持续时间长有关，还与高风险企业贷款规模出现短暂“超调”有关，反映出高风险企业融资链条上商业银行、影子银行和企业三方博弈的现象。由此，本文建议加速降低“坏杠杆”，减缓降低“好杠杆”，同时发挥影子银行的股权融资功能，以避免企业过度缩表和经济的下滑。
［关键词］ 高风险企业；影子银行；杠杆率；融资链条；股权融资
［Abstract］ From the perspective of high-risk enterprises as fund demanders of shadow banks and based on the theoretical derivation and empirical test, the authors of this paper find that, under the conditions of interest rate increase, the leverage ratio of high-risk enterprises grows three times higher and lasts longer than the low-risk enterprise, the reason of which is not only because the high-risk enterprises have a larger-extent and longer-term decline in profits, but also because the the loan scale of high-risk enterprises is overshot in the short-term, which reflects the game process among commercial banks, shadow banks and enterprises in the financing chain of high-risk enterprises. It is suggested to accelerate the reduction in “bad leverage” and slow down the reduction in “good leverage”, and play the role of equity financing of shadow banking to avoid the excessive decrease in assets of enterprises and the economic slowdown.
［Key words］ high-risk enterprise; shadow banking; leverage ratio; financing chain; equity financing
目标企业创新能力对并购双方收益的影响——基于中国A股市场的实证分析
曹桂全 刘晓曦 谭庆美
［摘 要］ 本文以中国A股市场的2 143件并购交易为样本，以并购溢价和短期超额收益作为并购收益的测度指标，分析目标企业创新能力对并购收益的影响。结果表明，并购溢价与目标企业的创新能力显著正相关，且创新能力水平越高，并购溢价越显著；并购企业获得的短期超额收益也与创新能力显著正相关。因此，以有创新能力的企业为目标的并购交易能够使双方获得更大的短期收益，资本市场的并购是反映创新的市场价值的重要途径，能够提供激励企业创新的重要机制。
［关键词］ 企业创新能力；资本市场；并购溢价；短期超额收益
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the 2 143 M&A events of Chinese A-share listed companies as samples, and chose M&A premiums and short-term abnormal returns as the indexes to measure the benefits from M&A, and test the impact of target’s innovative capacity on the benefits from M&A. The results of the paper indicate that the M&A premium is significantly positively correlated with the innovative capacity of the target enterprise, and the higher the innovative capability is, the more significant the M&A premium is; the short-term abnormal return obtained by acquirers is also positively correlated with the innovative capacity of target enterprise. Therefore, the innovative capacity of target enterprise can bring short-term benefits to the both parties of M&A; the merger and acquisition in capital market is an important way to show the market value of innovation, and the capital market can provide an important mechanism to promote enterprises to innovate.
［Key words］ innovative capacity of enterprise; capital market; M&A premium; short-term abnormal return
金融服务实体经济的效率测度及影响因素——基于绿色发展视角
游士兵 杨 芳
［摘 要］ 本文从“金融—实体经济”结构匹配视角分析两者匹配度对金融服务实体经济绿色发展效率的影响。结果显示，当前中国金融服务实体经济绿色发展效率的提升主要靠规模效率拉动，且东部地区高于中西部地区；资本密集型产业比重高则市场型融资结构更有利于金融服务实体经济绿色发展效率的提升；中小企业规模比重高，则大银行的低比重更有利于金融服务实体经济绿色发展效率的提升。
［关键词］ 金融服务；实体经济；绿色发展；结构协调度
［Abstract］ From the perspective of “financial-real” economy structure matching, this paper presents an analysis of the impacts of matching degree on the efficiency of financial support for the green development of real economy. The results of the paper show that the current improvement in the efficiency of China’s financial support for the green development of real economy is mainly driven by scale efficiency, and the efficiency in eastern region is higher than that in central and western regions; if the proportion of capital-intensive industries is high, a market-oriented financing structure is conducive to the improvement in the efficiency; if the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises is high, a low proportion of large banks is conducive to the improvement in the efficiency.
［Key words］ financial support; real economy; green development; structural coordination
第三方支付、创业与家庭收入
尹志超 张逸兴 于玖田
［摘 要］ 本文利用2017年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据，研究京津冀地区第三方支付、创业与家庭收入之间的关系。研究发现，第三方支付有助于促进家庭创业，进而提高家庭收入；有助于促进城乡家庭主动创业和农村地区生存型创业；因此，第三方支付会改善家庭创业意愿，进而提高家庭非工资性收入。第三方支付作为便捷的支付方式，可成为家庭创业的有效激励，促进家庭非工资性收入的提高。
［关键词］ 第三方支付；创业；家庭收入；非工资性收入；京津冀地区
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper use the 2017 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data to study the relationship between third-party payment, entrepreneurship and household income in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results of the paper show that the third-party payment helps promote family entrepreneurship, and thereby increase household income; it helps promote the active entrepreneurship of urban and rural households, and the survival-based entrepreneurship of rural households; therefore, the third-party payment will improve family’s entrepreneurial willingness, and thereby increase the non-wage incomes of households. As a convenient payment method, the third-party payment can be an effective incentive for family entrepreneurship and promote the improvement in household non-wage income.
［Key words］ third-party payment; entrepreneurship; household income; non-wage income; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
证券投资基金的择时与风格转换——基于市场流动性视角的研究
高金窑 王庆瑜
［摘 要］ 本文在四因子模型基础上实证研究中国证券投资基金的流动性择时能力与风格转换能力。结果表明，中国的证券投资基金不具有流动性择时能力，同时也不具有市场收益择时能力与市场波动择时能力；但是中国的证券投资基金表现出显著的流动性风格转换能力；市场流动性好时证券投资基金倾向于提高大盘股和价值凤的权重，降低小盘股和成长股的权重。
［关键词］ 证券投资基金；市场流动性；择时能力；风格转换
［Abstract］ Based on the four factor model, this paper presents an empirical study of the timing and style shifting abilities of Chinese mutual funds. The results of the paper indicate that the mutual funds have no liquidity timing ability, and also has no market return timing and volatility timing abilities; but show a significant liquidity style shifting ability; when the market liquidity is high, the mutual funds tend to increase the investment ratios of large-cap stocks and value stocks, and decrease those of small-cap stocks and growth stocks.
［Key words］ mutual fund; market liquidity; timing ability; style shifting
中国三大城市群城市经济引力测度及对京津冀协同发展的启示
中国人民银行营业管理部课题组
［摘 要］ 本文从城市经济联系的角度，基于修正后的城市经济引力模型，对中国京津冀、长三角和珠三角这三大城市群内城市相互经济引力进行比较分析。结果显示，城市群内城市经济联系日益紧密，但京津冀区域发展的协同性、紧密性、均衡性均落后于长三角和珠三角。京津冀城市间经济联系紧密度不足，京津虹吸效应明显，经济流动单向性突出。鉴于此，应引导京津资源向河北各市有序流动，着力提升城市间经济流动的均衡性，促进区域发展的协同性。
［关键词］ 城市群；城市经济引力测度；京津冀协同发展；雄安新区
［Abstract］ From the perspective of urban economic linkage and based on the modified urban economic gravity model, the paper presents a comparative analysis of the the mutual economic gravitation of the cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The results of the paper show that the urban economic relationship within the urban agglomeration is increasingly close, and the coordination, closeness and balance of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional development lag behind those of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The urban economic link of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is not close; the siphon effects of Beijing and Tianjin are obvious, and the economic flow in the region is an one-way type. Therefore, it is necessary to guide the orderly flow of resources of Beijing and Tianjin to Hebei, improve the balance of economic flows between cities, and promote the coordination of regional development.
［Key words］ urban agglomeration; measure of urban economic gravity; coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei; Xiong’an New District