美元加息对新兴市场国家的影响与对策
宗 良 冯兴科 刘津含（ 3 ）
The Impacts of Increase in US Interest Rate on Emerging Market Countries and the Countermeasures
ZONG Liang FENG Xing-ke LIU Jin-han（ 3 ）
反洗钱NCCTs黑名单与国家禀赋关系研究
孙陵霞 张成虎（11）
A Research on the Relationship between Anti-Money Laundering NCCTs
SUN Ling-xia ZHANG Cheng-hu（11）
银行同业业务与实体经济融资——基于货币供给创造的视角
吴 晗 张克菲（21）
Inter-Bank Business of Banks and Real Economy Financing——A Perspective of Money Supply Creation
WU Han ZHANG Ke-fei（21）
利率市场化增加企业信贷成本了吗？——基于中国某省信贷数据的研究
钱 龙（32）
Does Interest Rate Liberalization Increase the Loan Cost of Enterprises?——An Analysis Based on the Credit Data of Some China’s Province
QIAN Long（32）
中国非现金支付发展的空间集聚与经济增长效应——基于城市面板数据的空间计量分析
张培良 席旭文（46）
The Spatial Agglomeration and Economic Growth Effects of China’s Non-Cash Payment Development——A Spatial Econometric Analysis Based on Urban Panel Data
ZHANG Pei-liang XI Xu-wen（46）
高管薪酬与经营风险的内在联系及实证检验——基于上市银行的研究
方蔚豪 杨文慧（60）
The Internal Relationship between Executive Compensation and Operational Risks and the Empirical Test——A Research Based on Listed Banks
FANG Wei-hao YANG Wen-hui（60）
金融风险、政府救助与主权信用风险
郭 敏 黄亦炫 李金培（68）
Financial Risks, Government Bailout and Sovereign Credit Risks
GUO Min HUANG Yi-xuan LI Jin-pei（68）
美元加息对新兴市场国家的影响与对策
宗 良 冯兴科 刘津含
［摘 要］2018年4月以来，美元持续多次加息，多个新兴市场国家本币大幅贬值、股市急剧下跌、债市承压动荡，资本外流压力进一步显现。新兴市场国家金融动荡的导火索以外部因素为主，风险传播渠道以跨境联动因素为主，风险放大渠道以内部因素为主。在美元加息背景下，新兴市场国家要妥善处理自身货币与美元之间的关系，避免过于依赖美元，过多承担短期美元债务。支持法国、德国等提出的建立新独立国际支付体系的倡议，避免部分国家将国际公共的金融基础设施作为制裁手段。
［关键词］ 美元加息；新兴市场动荡；新独立国际支付体系；货币互换升级
［Abstract］ Due to the US dollar interest rate hikes since April 2018, the currencies of several emerging market countries depreciate greatly, the stock markets fall sharply, the bond markets run up and down, and the capital outflow pressure rises. In the emerging market countries, external factors are the main triggers of financial turmoil, cross-border linkage factors are the main risk transmission channels, and internal factors are the main risk amplification channels. In the context of the US dollar interest rate hikes, the emerging market countries should properly manage the relationship between their own currencies and the US dollar, avoid excessive dependence on the US dollar and excessive taking on short-term US dollar debts, support the initiative proposed by France, Germany and other countries to establish a new independent international payment system to prevent some countries from using international public financial infrastructure as the means of sanctions.
［Key words］ US dollar interest rate hike; emerging market turmoil; new independent international payment system; currency swap upgrade
反洗钱NCCTs黑名单与国家禀赋关系研究
孙陵霞 张成虎
［摘 要］ 本文基于“国家纵容洗钱最优数量—国家反洗钱监管宽松程度—反洗钱NCCTs黑名单”的逻辑关系，从理论和实证角度分析反洗钱NCCTs黑名单与国家禀赋的关系。研究表明，某国纵容洗钱最优数量取决于其自身的自然、经济、金融、犯罪、恐怖活动等条件，条件较差的国家会更倾向于纵容洗钱。2008年后的NCCTs黑名单制度更为合理，单纯的黑名单制度提高反洗钱有效性的作用有限。
［关键词］ 反洗钱；激励制度；NCCTs黑名单；国家禀赋；反洗钱监管
［Abstract］ Based on the logical relationship among “the best amount of money laundering in the country-the degree of national anti-money laundering regulation-the anti-money laundering NCCTs blacklist”, the authors of this paper analyze the relationship between the anti-money laundering NCCTs blacklist and national endowment from the perspective of theory and empirical test. The results of the paper show that the optimal amount of money laundering in a country depends on its own natural, economic, financial, criminal, terrorist activities and other conditions, and the poor-conditions countries are more inclined to condone money laundering. The NCCTs blacklist system after the year of 2008 is more reasonable, while the simple blacklist system has a limited effect on increasing the effectiveness of anti-money laundering.
［Key words］ anti-money laundering; incentive system; NCCTs blacklist; national endowment; anti-money laundering regulation
银行同业业务与实体经济融资——基于货币供给创造的视角
吴 晗 张克菲
［摘 要］ 本文基于同业业务货币供给创造的视角，分析银行同业业务对货币供给量和实体经济融资规模的不同影响及其对实体经济融资成本的影响、金融去杠杆的政策效果。研究结果表明，同业业务可以创造信用货币，但这些资金并非全部流向实体经济。虽然短期内同业业务的发展有利于实体经济融资，但长期内不再显著，反而会提升实体经济融资成本。为此，应持续推进金融去杠杆政策，降低实体经济融资成本，优化实体经济融资结构。
［关键词］ 同业业务；实体经济融资；货币供给量；金融去杠杆
Inter-Bank Business of Banks and Real Economy Financing
——A Perspective of Money Supply Creation
WU Han ZHANG Ke-fei
［Abstract］ From the perspective of the money supply creation of inter-bank business, the authors of this paper analyze the different impacts of inter-bank business on the money supply and the financing scale of real economy, the impacts on the financing cost of real economy, and the effect of financial deleveraging policy. The results of the paper show that the inter-bank business can create credit currency, but not all of these funds can flow to real economy. Although the development of inter-bank business in the short term is conducive to the financing of real economy, it will not be significant in the long run, and it will increase the financing cost of real economy. Therefore, it’s needed to promote the financial deleveraging, reduce the financing cost and optimize the financing structure of real economy.
［Key words］ Inter-bank business; real economic financing; money supply; financial deleveraging
利率市场化增加企业信贷成本了吗？——基于中国某省信贷数据的研究
钱 龙
［摘 要］ 本文运用中国某省2011-2016年间近100万笔信贷数据，考察利率市场化对企业信贷成本的影响。结果显示，利率市场化加剧银行之间市场竞争，考察利率市场化的影响不仅需要区分企业特征因素，还要考察不同类型贷款的差异。从企业视角看，利率市场化利于缓解银行对企业的“套牢”问题，降低大企业和高资信企业信贷成本，但会增加普通中小企业信贷成本。从银行视角看，利率市场化对企业信贷成本的影响与贷款契约有关，贷款期限会弱化利率市场化对增加企业信贷成本的影响，且不同类型银行的差别化定价策略存在差异。
［关键词］ 利率市场化；企业；异质性；信贷成本；商业银行
［Abstract］ Based on nearly 1 million lending data in some China’s Province during 2011-2016, the author of this paper researches the impacts of interest rate liberalization on loan cost of enterprises. The results of the paper show that the interest rate liberalization intensify the banking competition; to analyze the impacts of interest rate liberalization, it’s needed to consider not only the enterprise characteristics, but also the types of banks and loans. From the perspective of the enterprises, the interest rate liberalization is conducive to easing bank’s holding up to enterprises, reducing the loan cost of large and high credit enterprises, but it increases the loan cost of ordinary SMEs. From the perspective of banks, the impacts of interest rate liberalization on loan cost are related to the loan contract, and the loan maturity weakens the increase in the loan cost, and the pricing strategy varies in different type of banks.
［Key words］ interest rate liberalization; enterprise; heterogeneity; loan cost; commercial bank
中国非现金支付发展的空间集聚与经济增长效应——基于城市面板数据的空间计量分析
张培良 席旭文
［摘 要］ 本文运用中国35个主要城市的面板数据分析非现金支付发展的空间集聚和经济增长效应。研究结果表明，中国非现金支付发展表现出较强的区域专业化差异、空间正自相关性、空间溢出效应和集聚效应；中国非现金支付发展对经济增长具有正向的促进作用，票据和银行卡交易金额每增长1%，将分别促进GDP增长0.11%和0.13%，第三产业发展是非现金支付促进经济增长的主要途径。本文认为，应促进非现金支付健康发展，发挥其积极作用的同时防范潜在风险，运用“空间—制度”互动效应解决区域不平衡性。
［关键词］ 非现金支付；空间集聚；经济增长；现金支付体系；空间计量模型
［Abstract］ Based on the panel data of China’s 35 major cities, the authors of this paper analyze the spatial agglomeration and economic growth effects of non-cash payment development. The results of the paper show that the development of non-cash payment in China shows strong regional specialization differences, positive spatial auto-correlation, spatial spillover effect and agglomeration effect. The results of the spatial econometric analysis show that the development of non-cash payment in China has a positive effect on economic growth, and each 1% increase in the transaction amount of bills or bank cards will result in the 0.11% or 0.13% of GDP growth respectively; the development of the tertiary industry is the main way for non-cash payment to promote economic growth. This paper holds that it’s needed to develop the non-cash payment steadily, make use of its positive role，prevent potential risks and solve regional imbalances by use of the interplay between spatial and institutional structures.
［Key words］ non-cash payment；spatial agglomeration；economic growth；cash payment system; spatial econometric model
高管薪酬与经营风险的内在联系及实证检验——基于上市银行的研究
方蔚豪 杨文慧
［摘 要］ 本文基于委托代理理论和上市银行的数据，研究银行高管薪酬与经营风险的内在联系。研究结论显示，高管长期薪酬及总薪酬与银行风险水平呈现负相关性，即高管长期薪酬和总薪酬水平较高时，银行经营风险相对较低。因此，应发挥银行董事会在高管薪酬制定中的作用，制定科学合理的薪酬水平和薪酬结构，运用股权激励、延期支付等长期薪酬激励方式激励银行高管，促进银行控制风险，创新经营和可持续发展。
［关键词］ 银行高管；高管薪酬；长期薪酬激励；经营风险；上市银行
［Abstract］ Based on the principal-agent theory and the data of listed banks, the authors of this paper research the internal relationship between bank executive compensation and operational risks. The results of the paper show that the executive long-term compensation and total compensation are negatively correlated with the risk level of banks, which is means that the operational risks of banks are relatively low if the levels of executive long-term compensation and total compensation are high. Therefore, the board of directors of the banks should play the role in the formulation of executive compensation, determine a scientific and reasonable compensation level and compensation structure, use equity incentive, deferred payment and other long-term compensation incentives to encourage bank executives, promote the risk control, innovative management and sustainable development of banks.
［Key words］ bank executive; executive compensation; long-term compensation incentive; operational risk; listed bank
金融风险、政府救助与主权信用风险
郭 敏 黄亦炫 李金培
［摘 要］ 本文构建政府、企业、银行的三部门经济模型，研究政府救助行为对主权信用和金融风险的影响，理论模型指出政府对金融救助所增发的债务越多，财政缺口引发的主权信用风险越高；被救助银行作为政府债券的持有者和被担保者，其风险随着主权信用风险上升而上升。实证检验结果表明：在控制了保障性支出等经济社会因素后，政府债务增长率对主权信用违约互换价差存在显著的正向影响；在政府救助后，主权部门与金融部门之间形成了风险“闭环”。
［关键词］ 政府救助；金融风险；政府债务；主权信用风险
［Abstract］ The authors of this paper construct a three-sector economic model including government, enterprises and banks, and research the impacts of government bailout on sovereign credits and financial risks. The theoretical model shows that the more government debts issued by financial bailout, the higher the risk of sovereign credits caused by fiscal gap. The rescued bank is the holder of government bonds and a vouchee, and its risks rise with the increase in the risks of sovereign credits. The empirical test results show that the growth of the government debts has a significant positive impact on the default swap spread of sovereign credits when the economic and social factors such as guaranteed expenditure are controlled; a risk “doom loop” forms between sovereign sector and financial sector after the government provides bailout.
［Key words］ government bailout; financial risk; government debt; sovereign credit risk