新冠疫情冲击下中国家庭财富变动趋势 西南财大中国家庭金融调查与研究中心 蚂蚁集
团研究院
银行干预与企业风险转移
——来自创新活动的经验证据 程京京 李瑞晶 杨 宜 李俊强
影子银行对金融稳定的动态影响研究 王 晰 王雪标 白智奇
美联储重启扩表政策背后的深层次问题 任羽菲 李宏瑾
财务报告问询函与上市公司融资约束 翟淑萍 王 敏 毛文霞
PM2.5年均浓度对企业股利政策的影响 王 营
绿色金融改革创新与企业履行社会责任
——来自绿色金融改革创新试验区的证据 沈 璐 廖显春
新冠疫情冲击下中国家庭财富变动趋势
西南财大中国家庭金融调查与研究中心 蚂蚁集团研究院
本调查主要围绕家庭财富变化、家庭投资、家庭信贷和家庭消费等方面展开。研究发现：疫情下家庭整体偏好中低风险类资产；家庭线上投资意愿逐年增加；疫情增加了家庭商业保险类资产的配置意愿；家庭购房意愿有所上升；对海外资产的投资意愿进一步降低；对基金的投资意愿增加可能是中长期行为；消费负债和未来预期等对家庭日常消费产生重要影响；逾四分之一家庭信贷需求增加，低收入群体信贷获取难度下降；信贷资金并未进入股市，而是投资定存类或保险类资产。
The Changing Trend of China’s Household Wealth under the Shocks of COVID-19
Survey and Research Centre for China Household Finance of SWUFE, Ant Group Research Institute
This survey is mainly focused on household’s wealth changes, investment, credit and consumption. The research finds that: low- and medium-risk assets are preferred by the general households under the epidemic; the willingness of online investment increases annually; the epidemic increases the willingness for commercial insurance assets; the willingness of house purchasing increases; the willingness of overseas investment further decreases; the increasing willingness of fund investment might be a medium- to long-term behavior; consumer debt and future expectation significantly influence household daily consumption; demand for credit increases in over a quarter of the households and the access to credit is easier for low-income people; credit funds enter fixed deposits or insurance assets, rather than the stock market.
银行干预与企业风险转移——来自创新活动的经验证据
程京京 李瑞晶 杨 宜 李俊强
文章从债务违约角度探讨银行干预对企业风险转移的影响，并用创新活动衡量企业股东风险转移动机的强弱。文章以2007-2018年A股上市公司为样本，采用倾向值匹配和双重差分法进行检验，研究发现，银行干预后企业研发资金投入并未有显著变化，但研发人力资本投入却显著降低，且企业管理成本也显著降低，因此，银行干预会提高企业组织管理水平进而提升企业价值。进一步研究发现，银行干预后民营企业风险转移动机相对下降更多。
Bank Intervention and Corporate Risk Transfer
——Empirical Evidence from Innovation Activities
CHENG Jing-jing LI Rui-jing YANG Yi LI Jun-qiang
The authors of this paper explore the impact of bank intervention on corporate risk transfer and estimate shareholders’ motivation of risk transfer with innovation activities. Using the samples of A-share listed companies during 2007-2018 and the PSM-DID method, this paper finds that, although there are few changes in R&D costs after bank intervention, the human capital invested in R&D is significantly reduced and corporate management cost is lower. Therefore bank intervention could improve corporate value through improving organizational management. It is further found that the risk transfer motivation of private enterprises is relatively lower after bank intervention.
影子银行对金融稳定的动态影响研究
王 晰 王雪标 白智奇
本文从商业银行表外业务、影子银行机构和互联网金融三方面估算影子银行规模，并构建四维动态金融稳定指数。利用2010-2019年数据，基于TVP-VAR模型探究影子银行对金融稳定的影响机制。研究发现：（1）同期来看影子银行对金融稳定的影响持续向好，但提前期冲击于2016年转变为负，2018年负向影响最大；（2）影子银行不利于金融体系有序发展和平稳运转，但对金融防御有积极作用，且规模可控时有利于金融恢复；（3）商业银行表外业务的影响与影子银行总规模更接近，影子银行机构的影响更积极，互联网金融则波动较大。
The Dynamic Impact of Shadow Banking on Financial Stability
WANG Xi WANG Xue-biao BAI Zhi-qi
The authors of this paper study the dynamic impact mechanism of shadow banking on financial stability using the data during 2010-2019 and TVP-VAR model, through estimating the scale of shadow banking in the three aspect of commercial banks’ off-balance-sheet activities, shadow banking institutions and Internet finance, and constructing a four-dimension dynamic financial stability index. The results indicate that: (1) shadow banking’s impact on financial stability is constantly positive with data in the current period, but turns negative in 2016 and reaches the peak in 2018 with data in periods ahead. (2) shadow banking is unfavorable for the orderly development and steady operation of the financial system, but beneficial to financial defense, as well as financial recovery when the scale is under control. (3) the impact of commercial banks’ off-balance sheet activities is close to that of shadow banking in terms of scale. The impact of shadow banking institutions is more positive, and the impact of Internet finance has big fluctuations.
美联储重启扩表政策背后的深层次问题
任羽菲 李宏瑾
2019年10月，美联储开启“不是量宽的扩表政策”。目前，针对美联储为何采取该措施的讨论，主要围绕准备金数量不足、国债和税收缴款、加强流动性监管等导致流动性紧张的直接因素。其实，在提前停止缩表的背景下，扩表不仅凸显联储利率操作框架尚未构建对称利率走廊安排、主要依赖公开市场操作的明显缺陷，更反映其政策操作难以有效兼顾量与价、货币决策独立性面临挑战等其他深层次问题，这对于完善中国公开市场操作与利率走廊相结合的利率操作框架、顺利实现货币价格调控方式转型具有一定的启示意义。
Problems Underlying the US Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Expansion
REN Yu-fei LI Hong-jin
The balance sheet expansion that is “not quantitative easing” started by the US Federal Reserve in October 2019, has triggered the discussion on its reasons, mainly focused on the direct factors causing liquidity constraints, such as insufficient reserves, national debt, taxation and tighter regulation for liquidity. Considering the early cessation of balance sheet contraction, the balance sheet expansion has exposed the flaws of the Fed’s interest rate operations, including not only the lack of symmetrical interest rate corridor, and excessive reliance on open market operations, but also the underlying problems of quantity-price balance, and monetary policy independence. Therefore, China is enlightened to establish the interest rate operation system combining the open market operations with the interest rate corridor, and smoothly implement the monetary price control transformation.
财务报告问询函与上市公司融资约束
翟淑萍 王 敏 毛文霞
本文以交易所发放的财务报告问询函为研究对象，检验交易所问询函制度对公司融资约束的影响。实证结果表明，上市公司收到财务报告问询函会加剧融资约束；检验其影响机理证实，问询函将公司推向聚光灯下，坏消息传播，降低收函公司声誉，并引起其股价波动性增加、违规风险提高，进而加剧公司融资约束；进一步研究发现，问询函提高公司的债务与股权融资成本；此外，问询函异质性特征对公司融资约束的影响程度存在差异。
The Inquiry Letter of Financial Report and Financing Constrains of Listed Companies
ZHAI Shu-ping WANG Min MAO Wen-xia
The authors of this paper analyze the impact of the stock exchange’s inquiry letter system on corporate financing constraints. The empirical results show that, receiving inquiry letters would increase the financial constraints of listed companies; the mechanism is that the inquiry letter puts the company into the spotlight and the spreading bad news therefore reduces the corporate reputation, increases the stock price volatility and irregularity risk, and intensifies the financing constraints; further studies show that the inquiry letter increases the financing costs of debt and equity; the heterogeneity of inquiry letters has different impacts on financing constraints.
PM2.5年均浓度对企业股利政策的影响
王 营
本文分析了PM2.5年均浓度对企业股利政策的影响。研究发现，当所处地区的雾霾污染严重时，企业会发放更多的现金股利，并且很可能采取高派现做法，而非送转；这种效应不会因地域特征、企业污染特征以及政策的变化而消失。进一步分析表明，当所处地区的雾霾污染严重时，企业发放现金股利的做法降低了两类代理成本，但这并未迎合所有投资者的利益需求，而仅迎合了机构投资者尤其是独立机构投资者的利益需求。
The Impact of PM2.5’s Annual Average Concentration on Corporate Dividend Policy
WANG Ying
This paper analyzes the impact of PM2.5 concentration on the corporate dividend policy. The results show that, enterprises in heavily smog-polluted regions prefer higher cash dividends to stock splits; this effect exists regardless of the changes in location, pollution production and regulations. Further analysis shows that, cash dividends reduce the two types of agency costs, which only meets the interests of institutional investors，especially the independent institutional investors, among all the investors.
绿色金融改革创新与企业履行社会责任
——来自绿色金融改革创新试验区的证据
沈 璐 廖显春
本文利用2017年国务院批准试点建立绿色金融改革创新试验区作为准自然实验，选取2015-2018年A股上市重污染企业为样本，使用双重差分法实证检验建立绿色金融改革创新试验区对企业履行社会责任的影响。研究发现，建立绿色金融改革创新试验区能倒逼重污染企业履行社会责任，尤其是环境社会责任，且该影响主要集中在非国有、未持股金融机构、市场化程度较低地区的企业中。作用机制检验表明，绿色金融改革创新试验区的建立主要通过加强重污染企业的融资约束倒逼企业履行社会责任，且企业积极履行社会责任能缓解融资约束。
Reform and Innovation of Green Finance and Fulfillment of Corporate Social Responsibility
——Evidence from the Green Finance Pilot Zones
SHEN Lu LIAO Xian-chun
The authors of this paper examine the impact of Green Finance Pilot Zones on the fulfillment of corporate social responsibility, selecting the samples of heavily polluting A-share listed enterprises during 2015-2018 and using the DID method in the quasi-natural experiment based on establishment of Green Finance Pilot Zones in 2017. It is found that, the establishment of pilot zones could force heavily polluting enterprises to fulfill their social responsibility, especially the environmental social responsibility, and mainly affect enterprises that are non-state owned, without shareholding of financial institutes and located in less market-oriented regions. The mechanism test shows that the forcing impact of Green Finance Pilot Zones is mainly through strengthening the financing constraints of the heavily polluting enterprises, while enterprises’ social responsibility fulfillment could alleviate their financing constraints in return.