扩大中等收入群体是构建新发展格局的重要途径 (王一鸣)
金融助力构建双循环新发展格局的着力点 (胡 浩)
法定数字货币对货币政策的潜在影响研究—— 理论与实证 (姜婷凤 陈昕蕊 李秀坤)
央行货币政策时变调控模式识别—— 基于不同产出缺口的研究 (张小宇 刘永富)
杠杆交易、市场流动性与资产价格波动 (彭 桢 胡昌生)
认知能力、金融知识与家庭商业保险需求 (曹国华 王 楠 任成林)
人口老龄化与家庭金融资产选择—— 基于金融素养的调节效应 (康琛宇 胡日东)
QFII持股与企业技术创新 (谭 颖 杨 筝)
扩大中等收入群体是构建新发展格局的重要途径
王一鸣
中等收入群体是推动高质量发展的人力资本基础，是建设高品质生活的主力军。扩大中等收入群体是推动形成新发展格局的重要途径。从各方面条件判析，我国到2035年实现中等收入群体倍增，中等收入群体规模由现在的4亿人扩大到8亿人是可以实现的。“十四五”时期，要聚焦重点人群和突出问题，采取有针对性的措施，以深化户籍制度改革和基本公共服务均等化为重点打通农业转移人口市民化的通道，以农村土地制度改革和宅基地流转为重点提高农民财产性收益，以职业技能培训和提高技术工人待遇为重点拓展产业工人进入中等收入群体的空间，以建设高质量教育体系和保障教育公平为重点提升低收入群体进入中等收入群体的能力，以增进社会流动和打破阶层固化为重点创造进入中等收入群体的公平机会。
Expanding the Middle-Income Group Is an Important Way to Build a New Development Pattern
WANG Yi-ming
Expanding the middle-income group is an important way to promote the formation of a new development pattern. Judging from various conditions, it is possible for China to expand the size of middle-income groups from 400 million to 800 million by 2035. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, we should focus on the key groups and outstanding problems, and take the following targeted measures: deepening the household registration system reform and equalizing basic public services in order to facilitate the urbanization of farmers, promoting the rural land system reform and the rural residential land transferring to raise the property gains for farmers, improving the worker’s vocational skill and pay to expand the space for industrial workers to enter the middle-income group, constructing a high-quality education system guaranteeing the educational equity, enhancing the social mobility and breaking the class solidification to expand the space for industrial workers to enter the middle-income group.
金融助力构建双循环新发展格局的着力点
胡 浩
“双循环”新发展格局的提出，是党中央基于国内国际形势变化，推动我国经济向更高层次发展的重大战略部署，是事关全局的系统性深层次变革，有着重要的宏观背景和战略考量。理解“双循环”的内涵，要明确一个立足点，即以国内大循环为主体，同时辩证看待国内国外循环、全面促进消费和拓展投资空间、坚持创新驱动和巩固传统优势、公有制经济和非公有制经济这四对关系。金融系统应充分发挥服务实体经济的作用，全面助力加快构建“双循环”新发展格局。
The Focus of Financial Assistance in Building a New Development Pattern of Dual Circulation
HU Hao
The new development pattern of“dual circulation” is an important strategy of the Party Central Committee to promote China’s economic development to a higher level based on the changes in domestic and international situations, It is a systematic and deep-seated reform related to the overall situation and is proposed considering the macro background. To grasp the connotation of “dual circulation”, we should take the domestic circulation as the main body and dialectically understand four relationships between domestic and international circulation, consumption promotion and investment expansion, adherence to innovation-driven and consolidating traditional advantages, state-owned economy and non- state-owned economy. The financial system should fully play the role in serving the real economy and comprehensively help to accelerate the construction of the new development pattern of “dual circulation”.
法定数字货币对货币政策的潜在影响研究
——理论与实证
姜婷凤 陈昕蕊 李秀坤
本文结合相关货币理论和数据，分析法定数字货币发行对现有的货币体系及货币政策的潜在影响。研究发现：随着法定数字货币推行，活期存款会受到一定冲击，基础货币投放规模可能扩大；短期内货币乘数会出现一定的波动，其中狭义货币乘数趋于下降、广义货币乘数变化不确定，但是长期内两种货币乘数会重新变得较为稳定。经过良好设计的法定数字货币将能提供新的货币政策工具、有利于负利率政策的实施；有利于央行增强对货币供应量的控制、更有效地进行流动性管理并引导基准利率，减少货币政策时滞。
The Potential Impacts of Central Bank Digital Currency on Monetary Policy
——Theory and Empirical Evidence
JIANG Ting-feng CHEN Xin-rui LI Xiu-kun
This paper analyzes the potential impacts of CBDC on the existing monetary system and monetary policy in combination with relevant monetary theory and data. It is found that with the issuance of CBDC, demand deposits will be affected to a certain extent, and the scale of monetary base may increase. The money multiplier will fluctuate to a certain extent in the short term, with lower narrow money multiplier and uncertain broad money multiplier. However, the two money multipliers will become more stable in the long run. Besides, a well-designed CBDC will provide new monetary policy tools and facilitate the implementation of negative interest rate policies. It will also help the central bank to strengthen its control over the money supply, more effectively manage liquidity, guide benchmark interest rates, and reduce monetary policy time lags.
央行货币政策时变调控模式识别
——基于不同产出缺口的研究
张小宇 刘永富
本文首先采用收敛交叉映射因果关系检验（CCM）模型判断名义利率与不同产出缺口的因果关系，进而在前瞻性和后顾性泰勒规则的框架下，采用时变参数回归模型对由不同产出缺口构建的泰勒规则进行参数估计。结果发现，基于实际产出增速与目标增速构建的伪产出缺口与名义利率存在显著的因果关系，而基于不可观测成分模型和生产函数法计算的产出缺口与名义利率不存在因果关系；进一步研究表明无论基于理性预期还是适应性预期，央行均存在针对通胀缺口和伪产出缺口调整名义利率的政策偏好，同时央行调控模式也具有显著的时变特征。
Recognition of Time-Varying Regulation Pattern of Central Bank Monetary Policy
——A Research Based on Different Output Gaps
ZHANG Xiao-yu LIU Yong-fu
The authors of this paper first use the convergence cross mapping causality test (CCM) model to judge the causal link between nominal interest rate and different output gaps, and then use the time-varying parametric regression model to estimate the parameters of Taylor rule constructed by different output gaps in the framework of forward-looking and backward Taylor rules. The results show that there is a significant causal relationship between the nominal interest rate and the pseudo output gap constructed based on the real output growth rate and the target growth rate, while not between the nominal interest rate and the output gap calculated based on the unobservable component model and the production function method. The further research shows that the central bank has a policy preference of adjusting nominal interest rate for inflation gap and pseudo output gap whether based on rational expectations or adaptive expectations. At the same time, the central bank’s control mode shows significant time-varying characteristics.
杠杆交易、市场流动性与资产价格波动
彭 桢 胡昌生
本文基于中国A股市场融资融券数据，运用TVP-SV-VAR模型对杠杆交易、市场流动性和资产价格波动性之间的反馈机制进行实证检验。结果表明：“杠杆率—市场流动性—资产价格波动性—杠杆率”反馈环显著存在，并且具有时变性和结构突变性特征；无论是市场处于暴涨还是暴跌状态，资产价格波动都会显著恶化市场流动性状况，但在市场处于暴跌状态时会导致市场流动性状况更加迅速恶化。中国监管部门在市场价格崩盘后及时为市场注入宝贵的流动性，对于减弱去杠杆冲击对金融市场的负面影响非常重要。
Leveraged Trading, Market Liquidity and Asset Price Volatility
PENG Zhen HU Chang-sheng
Based on the data of China’s A-share margin trading, this paper empirically examines the feedback mechanism of leveraged trading, market liquidity and asset price volatility with TVP-SV-VAR model. The results show that, the feedback loop of “leverage ratio-market liquidity-asset price volatility leverage ratio” is significant, time-varying and structurally mutable; whether in a boom or bust market, the asset price volatility would worsen the market liquidity , but more rapidly in a bust market. It is very important that China’s regulators inject the valuable liquidity into the market after a price collapse to ease the negative impact of deleveraging on the financial market.
认知能力、金融知识与家庭商业保险需求
曹国华 王 楠 任成林
本文基于2018 年“中国家庭追踪调查”项目数据（CFPS），考察认知能力、金融知识对家庭商业保险需求的影响。研究结果显示：认知能力能显著提升家庭商业保险需求意愿及参与程度，其中字词能力促进作用最大；金融知识在认知能力对家庭商业保险的需求影响中起部分中介作用；认知能力对中老年家庭的商业保险需求促进作用明显，金融知识对农村、低收入家庭的商业保险需求也有一定的促进作用。
Cognitive Ability, Financial Knowledge and Demand for Family Business Insurance
CAO Guo-hua WANG Nan REN Cheng-lin
Based on the data of “China Family Panel Studies” in 2018 (CFPS), this paper examines the impact of cognitive ability and financial knowledge on the demand for family commercial insurance. The results show that the cognitive ability can significantly improve the willingness and participation in family business insurance, in which word ability plays the most important role; the financial knowledge plays a partial mediating role in the influence of cognitive ability on the demand for family commercial insurance; the cognitive ability plays a greater role in promoting the demand for commercial insurance in middle-aged and elderly families; the financial knowledge plays a more important role in promoting the rural and low-income families’ demands for commercial insurance.
人口老龄化与家庭金融资产选择
——基于金融素养的调节效应
康琛宇 胡日东
本文基于2015年中国家庭金融调查数据，分析老龄化对家庭金融资产选择的影响，并实证检验金融素养的调节作用。研究发现，老龄化会增加家庭对安全性资产如定期存款和银行理财产品的投资，减少家庭对风险性资产如股票和互联网理财产品的持有。进一步调节效应检验表明，金融素养的提高可抵消老龄化对风险性资产投资的负面效应，增强老龄化对安全性资产投资的促进作用，但对前者的调节效应更大。此外，老龄化和金融素养还会交互影响家庭投资组合的多样性。
Population Aging and Family Financial Assets Selection
——Regulatory Effect Based on Financial Literacy
KANG Chen-yu HU Ri-dong
Based on the data of China’s household finance survey in 2015, this paper analyzes the impact of aging on household financial asset selection, and empirically tests the moderating effect of financial literacy. It is found that the aging will increase household investment in security assets such as time deposits and bank financial products, and reduce household holdings of risky assets such as stocks and Internet financial products. The further moderating effect test shows that the improvement of financial literacy can offset the negative effect of aging on risk asset investment and enhance the promotion effect of aging on safe asset investment, but the moderating effect on the former is greater. In addition, the aging and financial literacy also affect the diversity of household portfolio.
QFII持股与企业技术创新
谭 颖 杨 筝
本文基于中国2009-2017年上市公司样本，研究合格境外机构投资者是否影响企业创新活动并揭示作用机制。研究发现：上市公司QFII持股比例越高，企业创新投资活动越多，其创新产出和创新质量也显著提高，该发现在控制QFII持股决策内生性后依然成立。QFII持股对企业创新活动的促进作用在非国有企业和知识产权保护程度较差的地区更大。理论机制检验发现：QFII持股能通过信号效应机制促进企业技术创新。
QFII Shareholding and Enterprise Technological Innovation
TAN Ying YANG Zheng
Based on the sample of China’s listed companies during 2009-2017, this paper studies the impact and mechanism of qualified foreign institutional investors on enterprise innovation activities. The result shows that the higher the proportion of QFII shares, the more innovation investment activities of listed companies are, with significantly improved innovation output and quality. This resultis still significant after controlling the endogeneity of QFII shareholding decision. The promotion effect of QFII shareholding on enterprise innovation activities is greater in non-state-owned enterprises and regions with poor intellectual property rights protection. The theoretical mechanism test shows that, QFII shareholding can promote enterprise technological innovation through signal effect mechanism. The findings of this paper are helpful to understand the economic impact of China’s capital market participants, and provide referential significance for reasonably introducing foreign institutional investors to improve the quality of business activities.