美国次贷危机大系统因素分析——对中国防范金融风险的启示
张陆洋 孔 玥
Systemic Factor Analysis of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis
——The Enlightenment to Financial Risk Prevention in China
ZHANG Lu-yang, KONG Yue
媒体理财信息是否助推了家庭金融参与？——基于股票和保险的研究
张旭阳 吴卫星
Does Media’s Financial Information Promote Financial Participation of Households?
——A Research Based on Stocks and Insurance
ZHANG Xu-yang, WU Wei-xing
金融制裁对目标国经济的影响——来自合成控制法下伊朗的证据
姜 薇 陶士贵
Impacts of Financial Sanctions on Target Countries’ Economy
——Evidence From Iran Based on the Synthetic Control Method
JIANG Wei, TAO Shi-gui
人民币汇率传递的金融渠道——理论分析与实证检验
陈晓莉 刘晓宇
Financial Channels of RMB Exchange Rate Transmission
——Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test
CHEN Xiao-li, LIU Xiao-yu
银行发展对企业创新的影响——基于商业银行县域密度的证据
金友森 张琴韵 许和连
The Impact of Banking Development on Enterprise Innovation
——Evidence from the Density of Commercial Banks at County Level
JIN You-sen, ZHANG Qin-yun, XU He-lian
银行股价对利率风险的敏感性——定量测度和影响因素
辛兵海 陶 江
The Sensitivity of Bank Stock Price to Interest Rate Risk
——Quantitative Measure and Influence Factors
XIN Bing-hai, TAO Jiang
城市商业银行与地方就业——来自准自然实验的证据
韩瑞栋
City Commercial Banks and Local Employment
——Evidences from Quasi-Natural Experiments
HAN Rui-dong
美国次贷危机大系统因素分析——对中国防范金融风险的启示
张陆洋 孔 玥
本文从大系统的视角，分析2008年美国爆发“次贷危机”的五个主要因素及其相互影响：（1）金融市场结构问题，美国金融市场的多层次化、衍生化，给危机的产生提供舞台；（2）货币政策问题，给危机提供宽松的资金供给；（3）房地产市场衍生化问题，房地产贷款的债务证券化可以衍生交易；（4）微观机制问题，中介机构运用金融衍生化机制，超越法律范畴；（5）公司治理机理问题，美国的公司治理以业绩或市值的高低激励高管。这五个因素共同完成了由次贷→引发次贷危机→演化成金融危机和经济危机的过程。
From the perspective of large-scale system, this paper analyzes the five main factors and their mutual influences of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States: (1) the financial market structure, characterized by multi-level and derivatization, provides a stage for the emergence of the crisis; (2) the monetary policy provides a loose supply of funds for the crisis; (3) the real estate market allows the real estate loans to be securitized and derived; (4) intermediaries are unregulated in using financial derivatives; (5) corporate governance in the US offers performance or the market value incentive to the executive. These five factors jointly cause the process of subprime mortgages→the subprime mortgage crisis→the financial and economic crisis.
媒体理财信息是否助推了家庭金融参与？——基于股票和保险的研究
张旭阳 吴卫星
随着生活水平的提高和科学技术的进步，媒体逐渐成为家庭获得理财信息的重要渠道。本文发现并不是所有媒体的理财信息渠道对家庭的金融参与都有显著影响。具体地，互联网渠道的理财信息对于家庭股票市场参与有显著正向作用，纸媒体渠道的理财信息对于家庭保险市场参与有显著正向作用；交互项分析发现，时间限制降低了互联网渠道理财信息对于家庭参与股票市场的可能，而对纸媒体渠道则没有显著影响；另外还发现，金融素养和学历对股票和保险参与有正向显著作用。
With the improvement in living standards and the progress in science and technology, the media has become an important channel for households to get financial information. The authors of this paper find that the impact of media on households’ financial participation varies among different channels; specifically, financial information from the Internet has a significant positive effect on households’ stock market participation, while the information from print media has a significant positive effect on households’ insurance participation, both of which have passed the IV test; the interaction analysis shows that the time constraint reduces households’ participation in stock market through the Internet channel, which is not significant through the print media channel; in addition, it is found that the financial literacy and education background have a positive and significant effect on stock and insurance participation.
金融制裁对目标国经济的影响——来自合成控制法下伊朗的证据
姜 薇 陶士贵
金融制裁作为外交政策的有效手段发生的频率越来越高，对目标国经济影响的具体程度在学术界仍未定论。本文从货币权力非对称视角解释金融制裁对目标国经济的影响，以伊朗为例，利用合成控制法实证评估2011年对伊朗金融制裁的具体经济效果。结果发现：合成控制法通过拟合虚拟伊朗更能准确地评估金融制裁后伊朗经济的损失情况，金融制裁不仅导致伊朗GDP总额和增长率下降，同时加剧伊朗经济的波动性。
Financial sanctions have been more frequently used as an effective tool of foreign policy, but their specific impacts are still uncertain. This paper studies the impacts of financial sanctions from the perspective of asymmetric currency power, and empirically evaluates the impacts on Iran in 2011 with the synthetic control method. The results show that, with GDP and GDP growth rate declining and economic volatility rising, Iran’s economic loss could be well assessed in comparison with the synthetic Iran.
人民币汇率传递的金融渠道——理论分析与实证检验
陈晓莉 刘晓宇
本文根据中国涉外金融联系特征，构建理论模型分析人民币汇率波动影响中国经济的金融传导渠道，并利用中国经济数据实证检验这种金融渠道的存在性与具体作用机制。结果表明，人民币汇率波动通过金融渠道对中国经济产生显著的影响；这种影响比贸易渠道的影响大，且作用方向相反；对于具体作用机制，虽然中国持有巨额外汇储备，但人民币汇率波动通过外币资产的估值效应对中国经济的影响非常有限，主要还是通过企业和银行资产负债表上外币负债的变化来影响中国经济。
Based on the characteristics of China’s foreign-related financial links, the authors of this paper construct a theoretical model to analyze the financial transmission channels of RMB exchange rate fluctuations affecting China’s economy, and use China’s economic data to empirically test the existence and specific mechanism of the financial channels. The results of the paper show that the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a significant impact on China’s economy through financial channels; the influence is greater than that of trade channels, but in opposite direction; as for the specific mechanism, although China holds a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, the impact of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China’s economy is very limited through the valuation effect of foreign currency assets, but mainly through changes in foreign currency liabilities on the balance sheets of enterprises and banks.
银行发展对企业创新的影响——基于商业银行县域密度的证据
金友森 张琴韵 许和连
本文基于2001-2009年手工查找的中国商业银行县域分支机构数据、中国工业企业数据库以及国家专利数据库的匹配数据，研究以银行密度为代理变量的银行发展对企业创新的影响效应及其内在传导机制。结果表明：银行发展对企业创新产生显著且稳健的促进作用，这一效应对于非国有企业和高技术企业而言更强；缩短银企距离、促进同业竞争和强化关系融资是银行发展促进企业创新的主要渠道；进一步的生存分析发现，银行发展显著延长了企业创新持续时间。
Based on the data of banks manually collected at county level, and data from the China Industrial Enterprise Database and the China Patent Database during 2001-2009, this paper uses bank density as an indicator of the banking development and studies its impact on enterprise innovation and the underlying mechanism. The results show that the impact is significantly positive and robust, especially stronger for non-state-owned and high-tech enterprises; shortening the bank-enterprise distance, promoting banking competition and reinforcing related party financing are the main impact channels; through further survival analysis, it is found that banking development could significantly prolong the enterprise innovation duration.
银行股价对利率风险的敏感性——定量测度和影响因素
辛兵海 陶 江
本文基于经济价值视角研究中国上市银行的利率风险问题，动态测度并分析银行股价对国债收益率曲线变动的敏感性，实证检验影响银行利率风险敞口的微观因素。研究发现：（1）样本期间银行业股价对利率波动显著敏感。国债收益率期限结构的斜率因素对银行股价具有正向影响，水平因素和曲率因素对银行股价的影响存在年度差异性。（2）期限错配增加流动性风险，也放大银行所面临的利率风险敞口。（3）银行规模、贷款占比等指标上升时，会扩大银行利率风险敞口；非利息收入占比的提高，则会缩小银行的利率风险敞口。
From the perspective of economic value, this paper studies the interest rate risk of listed banks in China, measures and analyzes the sensitivity of bank stock price to the shifting yield curve of government bond, and empirically tests the micro factors influencing the risk exposure of bank interest rate. It is found that: (1) Bank stock price reacts sensitively to interest rate volatility. The impact of term structure of government bond yield on bank price is positive through the slope factor, and is time-varying through the level factor and the curvature factor. (2) Maturity mismatch increases banks’ liquidity risk and interest rate risk exposure. (3) For commercial banks, the increasing bank size and loan ratio would increase interest rate risk exposure, while the increasing non-interest income would reduce the interest rate risk exposure.
城市商业银行与地方就业——来自准自然实验的证据
韩瑞栋
本文从地方金融机构改革实践出发，利用城市非平衡面板数据和小微企业数据，估计城商行设立对地方就业的影响。研究表明：城商行设立有助于促进地方就业规模扩张，对三次产业划分的就业结构影响存在差异；城商行通过影响区域经济增长、改善信贷资源配置状况以及服务于小微企业等渠道引致就业需求增加，并对第二产业内采矿业、制造业以及第三产业内生产性服务业就业结构产生异质性影响；此外，基于小微企业数据库的实证研究发现，城商行有助于改善小微企业的信贷资源获取能力和企业经营绩效，从而有助于提高小微企业就业吸纳能力。
Based on the reform practice of local financial institutions, this paper uses the urban unbalanced panel data and the data of small and micro enterprises to estimate the impacts of the establishment of city commercial banks on local employment. The results of the paper show that the establishment of city commercial banks is conducive to the expansion of local employment scale, and its impact on the employment structure varies among the three industries; the city commercial banks increases the employment demand by affecting regional economic growth, improving the allocation of credit resources, and serving small and micro enterprises, and have heterogeneous impacts on the employment structure of the secondary industry such as mining and manufacture, and the tertiary industry, i.e. the productive service industry; in addition, the empirical research based on the database of small and micro enterprises shows that the city commercial banks are conducive to credit resources obtaining and the business performance of small and micro enterprises, which helps improve the employment absorption capacity of the enterprises.