建设中国高标准金融市场体系的着力点
王广谦
Focal Points for Building China’s High-Standard Financial Market System WANG Guang-qian
人民币国际化对中国金融风险的影响
马德功 罗雨柯 张 洋
The Impact of RMB Internationalization on China’s Financial Risks
MA De-gong, LUO Yu-ke, ZHANG Yang
货币政策、宏观审慎与汇率波动——基于时变效应的新视角
吴兆春
Monetary Policy, Macro-Prudential Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility
——From the Perspective of Time-Varying Effect
WU Zhao-chun
智力资本对上市商业银行绩效的影响——基于VAIC测算方法的实证研究
赫国胜 耿丽平
The Impact of Intellectual Capital on the Performance of Listed Commercial Banks
——An Empirical Analysis Based on VAIC Method
HE Guo-sheng, GENG LI-ping
中国类REITs产品投资属性研究——基于三个典型案例的分析
钟 腾 王文湛 易洁菲
The Research on Investment Attribute of Chinese Quasi-REITs Products
——An Analysis of Three Typical Cases
ZHONG Teng, WANG Wen-zhan, YI Jie-fei
员工外部薪酬差距与股价崩盘风险
黄小宝 邱 喃 陈关亭
The Employee External Pay Gap and the Risk of Stock Price Crash
HUANG Xiao-bao, QIU Nan, CHEN Guan-ting
套利限制会加剧A-H股定价偏差吗？
江 婕 李 颖 伍燕然
Do Limits to Arbitrage Increase Pricing Deviation of A-H Shares?
JIANG Jie, LI Ying, WU Yan-ran
银行理财产品与金融稳定——基于银行间风险传染的仿真分析
王占浩 于维娜 刘希玉
Bank’s Wealth Management Products and Financial Stability
——A Simulation Analysis of Interbank Risk Contagion
WANG Zhan-hao, YU Wei-na, LIU Xi-yu
建设中国高标准金融市场体系的着力点
王广谦
建设高标准金融市场体系，应该重在建立和完善相关的制度、法律和规则。货币市场改革重点在于完善货币政策的传导机制和利率的形成机制，资本市场改革应以新修订的《证券法》为指引，最紧迫的是加快证券发行注册制的实施并确保审核制向注册制转变的有效衔接。同时，需要特别重视完善企业上市退市制度和破产清算机制、建立严格的企业资本补充机制和投资人资产收益保障机制、加快发展多层次资本市场等。金融市场的改革还要与金融业的对外开放相匹配。
The construction of a high-standard financial market system should focus on establishing and improving relevant systems, laws, and rules. The money market reform should focus on improving the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission and interest rate setting. Capital market reform should be guided by the newly revised Securities Law. The most urgent task is to speed up the implementation of registration-based IPO system and ensure that approval-based system is changed into the registration-based system successfully. At the same time, special attention needs to be given to improving the company’s listing and delisting system and bankruptcy liquidation mechanism, establishing strict mechanisms for corporate capital replenishment and protection of investor’s asset and income, and accelerating the development of a multi-level capital market. The reform of financial markets should also be matched with the opening up of financial industry.
人民币国际化对中国金融风险的影响
马德功 罗雨柯 张 洋
本文运用VAR模型实证分析人民币国际化对中国金融风险的影响，结果表明，总体上人民币国际化过程中的货币交易媒介职能会促进中国金融风险的增长，人民币计价单位职能则使金融风险能得到一定抑制，而人民币价值储藏职能会降低中国金融风险。因此，中国应进一步推进人民币对外直接投资，加大人民币债券发行规模，稳步、有序推进资本账户和金融的对外开放，同时进一步完善汇率形成机制和外汇管理政策，构建货币政策与宏观审慎政策双支柱的调控框架，增强对金融风险的预警功能和干预职能。
The authors of this paper use the VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of RMB internationalization on China’s financial risks. The results of the paper show that, generally in RMB internationalization, its function as a medium of exchange will increase China’s financial risks, while the function as a unit of account will restrain the financial risk to a certain extent, and the function as a store of value will reduce China’s financial risk. Therefore, China should further promote RMB direct foreign investment, increase the scale of RMB bond issuance, and promote the opening up of the capital and financial accounts steadily and orderly. At the same time, China should further improve the exchange rate formation mechanism and foreign exchange management policies, and build a dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro prudential policy to strengthen the early warning function and intervention function on financial risk.
货币政策、宏观审慎与汇率波动——基于时变效应的新视角
吴兆春
本文研究央行政策对人民币外汇市场压力的时变性影响。研究发现，央行数量型货币政策和宏观审慎政策主要通过影响人民币在国际货币市场的“相对”供给水平来影响人民币外汇市场压力的波动，宽松政策在经济高涨时期和经济新常态时期会引起人民币外汇市场贬值压力，在经济萧条时期会引起人民币外汇市场升值压力；央行价格型货币政策主要通过影响人民币在国际货币市场的“相对”需求水平来影响人民币外汇市场压力的波动，宽松政策在经济高涨时期和经济新常态时期会引起人民币外汇市场升值压力，在经济萧条时期会引起人民币外汇市场贬值压力。
This paper studies the time-varying effect of the central bank’s monetary policy on the pressure of RMB foreign exchange market. The results show that, the central bank’s quantitative monetary policy and macro-prudential policy influence the volatility of RMB foreign exchange market pressure through the “relative” supply of RMB in the international money market; the easy monetary policy would increase the pressure of RMB depreciation in foreign exchange market during the period of high economic growth and the new normal, but increase the pressure of RMB appreciation during the period of economic depression; the central bank’s price-based monetary policy influence the pressure volatility of RMB foreign exchange market through the “relative” demand and the easy monetary policy would increase the RMB appreciation pressure during the period of high economic growth and the new normal, but increase the depreciation pressure during economic depression.
智力资本对上市商业银行绩效的影响——基于VAIC测算方法的实证研究
赫国胜 耿丽平
本文使用VAIC测算方法测算2013-2017年31家上市商业银行智力资本，使用静态面板模型和动态面板模型探究智力资本对商业银行绩效的长短期影响。研究发现，智力资本及其组成对商业银行绩效具有显著促进作用，其中结构资本效率的作用大于人力资本效率；智力资本对商业银行绩效的作用受银行的所有制结构影响；智力资本对商业银行绩效的作用具有持续性。结果带来的启示在于，商业银行应积极响应国家金融供给侧结构性改革政策，充分重视对智力资本资源的利用，不同所有制结构的商业银行对组织结构变革要有针对地实施不同措施。
This paper studies the short- and long-term impact of intellectual capital on bank performance, measuring the intellectual capital of 31 listed commercial banks during 2013-2017 with the value added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) method. The results show that intellectual capital and its components have significantly positive effect on bank performance, with the efficiency of structural capital higher than that of human capital; the impact varies according to the bank’s structure of ownership; the impact on bank performance is sustainable. Commercial banks should pay more attention to intellectual capital and implement different organization reforms according to their ownership structures.
中国类REITs产品投资属性研究——基于三个典型案例的分析
钟 腾 王文湛 易洁菲
本文通过对中国市场上类REITs典型案例的分析研究发现，与国内近年来房价增速和国外REITs收益率相比，类REITs产品的收益率较低，三个因素可能影响收益率：（1）大部分类REITs产品更接近一种发行人的抵押融资方式，投资人得到的一般是较低的固定利率；（2）类REITs产品内部治理结构的“委托—代理”关系会产生道德风险的问题；（3）没有类REITs相关的税收优惠政策，过低的租金收入导致类REITs收益率相对偏低。
The analysis of this paper on the cases of quasi-REITs in China shows that, compared with the recent growth in domestic house price and the yield of foreign REITs, the yield of quasi-REITs products is lower. Three factors may affect the yield: (1) most quasi-REITs products are closer to the issuer’s mortgage financing, and the investors generally get lower fixed interest rates; (2) the “principal-agent” relationship in the internal governance structure of quasi-REITs products will result in moral hazard; (3) there is no tax-preferential policy related to quasi-REITs, and the low rental income results in relatively low yield of quasi-REITs.
员工外部薪酬差距与股价崩盘风险
黄小宝 邱 喃 陈关亭
本文基于2008年至2018年信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业上市公司的经验数据，研究发现非国有企业员工外部薪酬差距与股价崩盘风险显著正相关。进一步研究发现，员工外部薪酬差距与股价崩盘风险的显著关系只存在于业绩中等的企业。本文的结论有助于扩展关于股价崩盘风险影响因素的研究，为防范股价崩盘风险和制定合理的员工薪酬政策提供经验数据支持。
Based on the empirical data of listed companies in the industries of information transmission, software and information technology service during 2008-2018, the study of this paper shows that the employee external pay gap in the non-state-owned companies is significantly and positively related to the risk of stock price crash. The further research shows that the significant relationship between the gap and the risk only exists in mid-performance companies. The conclusions of this paper are conducive to expanding the studies of the factors affecting the risk of stock price crash, and providing dada support to prevent the risk and make employee pay policy.
套利限制会加剧A-H股定价偏差吗？
江 婕 李 颖 伍燕然
本文从资产交易面临的直接约束视角，对套利限制与A-H股定价偏差之间的关系进行分析。以A-H股交叉上市公司为样本，研究发现：（1）套利限制会显著加剧A-H股定价偏差；（2）机构持股比例较高的公司和沪（深）港通开通之后的时间段，套利限制引起的定价偏差边际效应显著降低；（3）相比于制度性限制因子，机构持股和沪（深）港通开通能够更显著降低市场性限制因子对A-H股定价偏差的影响。结果表明，机构投资者的成长、互联互通政策有助于降低市场性限制，从而提高资本市场定价效率，但仍受到内地资本市场既有交易制度设计的约束。
From the perspective of direct constraint in asset trading and based on the sample of A-H share listed firms, this paper analyzes the relationship between limits to arbitrage and pricing deviation of A-H shares. It is found that, limits to arbitrage significantly increase pricing deviation of A-H shares, and the marginal effect significantly decreases in firms with higher institutional shareholding ratio or after the Shanghai(Shenzhen)-Hong Kong stock connect; compared with the impact of regulation constraints on A-H pricing deviation, the impact of market constraints could be significantly reduced by institutional shareholding and the stock connect, thus improving the capital market pricing efficiency.
银行理财产品与金融稳定——基于银行间风险传染的仿真分析
王占浩 于维娜 刘希玉
理财产品业绩受市场波动影响加大，有可能与原有银行间风险传染机制共振、放大银行系统风险。基于此视角，本文将银行理财产品嵌入银行间风险传染模型，研究银行理财产品对银行间风险传染的影响。结果发现：（1）在模型假定的条件下，考虑理财产品后，风险传染引发的平均损失增加28.76%。（2）如果考虑破产银行对理财产品的信息传染，平均损失进一步增加17.5%。（3）在投资者敏感性、资产非流动性较高时，银行对理财产品进行救助可以有效抑制风险传染；但冲击较大时，救助则会造成更大范围的风险传染。
Under the influence of market volatility, the performance of wealth management products (WMPs) might resonate with the interbank risk contagion and increase the banking systemic risk. The authors of this paper integrate WMPs into interbank risk contagion model and simulate the impact. The results show that: (1) WMPs increase the loss through risk contagion by 28.76% on average; (2) with the information contagion of bank failure to WMPs, the loss increases by another 17.5%; (3) bank bailouts could effectively help control the risk contagion when the sensitivity of investors and the illiquidity of asset are high, but could spread the contagion in case of big shocks.