从审核制到注册制：新《证券法》的核心与进步
曹凤岐
From Approval to Registration: the Core and Progress of the New Securities Law
CAO Feng-qi
疫情背景下的中小微企业金融纾困模式
清华大学商业模式创新研究中心、国家金融与发展实验室联合课题组
The Financial Bailout of Micro-, Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises in the Coronavirus Pandemic
The Joint Research Group of the Research Center for Business Model Innovation of Tsinghua SEM and National Institution for Finance and Development
信任视角下的家庭借贷行为研究
尹志超 潘北啸
A Research on Household’s Borrowing and Lending from the Perspective of Trust
YIN Zhi-chao, PAN Bei-xiao
储户预期与金融稳定
刘立安 曹廷求 刘海明
Depositor’s Expectation and Financial Stability
LIU Li-an, CAO Ting-qiu, LIU Hai-ming
金融结构、宏观风险与经济增长—— 基于41个亚投行成员的实证分析
牛宝春 崔光莲 张喜玲
Financial Structure, Macro Risk and Economic Growth
——An Empirical Analysis of 41 AIIB Members
NIU Bao-chun CUI Guang-lian ZHANG Xi-ling
中国系统性金融风险度量与货币政策影响机制分析
郭 娜 祁 帆 李金胜
Measurement of China’s Systemic Financial Risk and
Analysis of the Impact Mechanism of Monetary Policy
GUO Na, QI Fan, LI Jin-sheng
投资者动机对众筹投资决策的影响
李连梦 吴 青 申立敬
The Influence of Investor Motivation on Crowdfunding Investment Decision
LI Lian-meng, WU Qing, SHEN Li-jing
地方政府债务影响金融风险的传导机制—— 基于房地产市场和商业银行视角的研究
马树才 华 夏 韩云虹
The Transmission Mechanism of Local Government Debt Affecting Financial Risk
——A Study from the Perspective of Real Estate Market and Commercial Banks
MA Shu-cai, HUA Xia, HAN Yun-hong
从审核制到注册制：新《证券法》的核心与进步
曹凤岐
全面推行注册制是中国资本市场发行制度的第三次改革。从审核制到注册制应有一个过渡期，应分步实施。新《证券法》的进步表现在：加大对违法行为的处罚力度，扩大证券范围，完善投资者保护、强化信息披露要求等方面。新《证券法》的出台和实施必将进一步促进资本市场的制度建设，促进资本市场向好的方向发展。
The full implementation of the registration system is the third reform of the issuance system of China’s capital market. There should be a transition period from the approval-based system to the registration-based system. The followings are also the progress of the new Securities Law: increasing penalties for illegal acts, expanding the scope of securities, improving investor protection, and strengthening information disclosure requirements. The promulgation and implementation of the new Securities Law will surely further promote the institutional construction of the capital market and the development of the capital market in a better direction.
疫情背景下的中小微企业金融纾困模式
清华大学商业模式创新研究中心、国家金融与发展实验室联合课题组
针对新冠病毒肺炎疫情，本课题组对中小微企业的生存压力进行调研，发现85%中小微企业现金流不足支持3个月；各级政府、金融机构的救助政策反应迅速、积极，但惠及效率有待提高；企业现金流救助需要发挥政府平台和产业链群形成的产业平台的作用，助推金融精准纾困中小微企业。建议政府部门短期积极利用两大平台资源，优化中央、地方政府专项纾困基金和支持性贷款、金融扶持资金和优惠贷款的管理模式；中期建立专项中小微企业发展的扶持基金和就业援助计划，推动中小微企业转型升级。
Based on the survival stress research of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia, this paper finds that 85% of the enterprises could not last for 3 months due to cash flow shortage; the responds of governments and financial institutions at different levels are fast and positive, but not inclusively efficient; the targeted bailout of enterprise’s cash flow should be based on the industrial platform combining the government and industrial chain. This paper suggests that, in the short term, the government should make full use of the platforms of the government and industry, optimize the management of special funds and support loans from central and local governments, as well as the support funds and concessional loans from financial institutions; in the medium term, supportive funds and employment rescue plans should be established for the transformation and upgrading of the enterprises.
信任视角下的家庭借贷行为研究
尹志超 潘北啸
基于2015年和2017年中国家庭金融调查数据，本文实证研究发现，信任能够提高家庭正规信贷可得性，降低家庭使用非正规信贷的概率。进一步地，信贷可得性的差异带来家庭负债结构的变化，信任能够提升家庭正规信贷占比，降低非正规信贷占比。信任提升家庭资金借出概率，但这种关系并不是单调递增的，而是存在适度信任现象。异质性分析表明，在户主文化程度低的家庭和农村地区家庭，信任对借出的影响更大。因此，本文的结果表明，信任能够在一定程度上缓解家庭融资的困难。
Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey in 2015 and 2017, the empirical study of this paper shows that trust can raise the household’s availability of formal credit, and reduce the household’s probability of using informal credit. Further, the difference in credit availability results in the change in the structure of household debt, and trust can raise the ratio of household’s formal credit and reduce the ratio of informal credit. Trust raises the probability of household fund to be lent, but this relationship is not monotonically increasing, and there exists a right level of trust. The heterogeneity analysis shows that trust has a greater impact on lending in the rural households and the households where the heads receive less education. The results of this paper show that trust can reduce the difficulty of household financing to some extent.
储户预期与金融稳定
刘立安 曹廷求 刘海明
本文利用中国88家银行的面板数据及中国人民银行的储户问卷调查数据，研究储户对未来经济和收入感知的预期对金融稳定性的影响。研究发现，通过储户资产配置、货币政策预期与银行风险承担三个渠道储户预期水平上升有助于提高金融稳定性；机构储户对金融稳定性的边际影响高于居民储户；城市储户的预防动机需求会降低金融稳定性；从系统重要性银行角度看，储户预期对非系统重要性银行的影响更大，储户对房价信息与股市波动等信息的适应性学习会降低储户预期对金融稳定性的影响。
The authors of this paper use the panel data of 88 Chinese banks and the data of the depositor survey of the PBC to study the impact of depositor’s expectations and perceptions of future economy and income on financial stability. The results of the paper show that the rise in the level of depositor’s expectation through the three channels of depositor asset allocation, monetary policy expectation and bank’s risk-taking is helpful to improve financial stability; the marginal impact of the institutional depositor on financial stability is higher than that of the residential depositor; and the urban depositor’s preventive-motivation need will reduce financial stability; from the perspective of systemically important banks, depositor’s expectation has a greater impact on non-systemically important banks, and depositor’s adaptive learning on house price information and stock market fluctuation will reduce the impact of saver’s expectation on financial stability.
金融结构、宏观风险与经济增长——基于41个亚投行成员的实证分析
牛宝春 崔光莲 张喜玲
本文采用面板交互固定效应模型对41个亚投行成员2005-2017年面板数据进行实证分析，考察金融结构、宏观风险以及二者交互项对经济增长的影响。实证结果表明，在不考虑其他因素的情况下，宏观风险冲击对经济增长有削弱作用；金融结构银行化水平提高有助于抑制宏观风险冲击对经济增长不利影响；另外，虽然金融结构银行化水平提高有助于抑制宏观风险的负向效应，但随着经济增长水平提高，这种抑制作用呈递减趋势。
Empirically analyzing 41 AIIB members during 2005-2017 with the panel data model with interactive fixed effects, this paper examines the impacts of financial structure, macro risk and their interaction term on economic growth. The results show that all the other factors excluded, macro risk shock could depress economic growth; the higher proportion of banking in financial structure helps restraining the negative effect of macro risk shock, which benefit, however, decreases as economy develops.
中国系统性金融风险度量与货币政策影响机制分析
郭 娜 祁 帆 李金胜
本文从宏观总体层面构建中国系统性金融风险指数，以SV-TVP-VAR模型分析国内外货币政策对系统性金融风险的影响。结果表明，2001-2018年中国系统性金融风险基本维持在较为稳定的状态并呈现下降趋势；国内货币政策对系统性金融风险产生重要影响，数量型货币供给量的冲击效应更加直接；国外货币政策在金融危机期间对系统性金融风险的冲击较强但冲击在不断减弱。
The authors of this paper construct an index of China’s systemic financial risk from a macro-level perspective, and use the SV-TVP-VAR model to analyze the impact of domestic and foreign monetary policies on systemic financial risk. The results of the paper show that China’s systemic financial risk has basically maintained a relatively stable state and showed a downward trend during 2001-2018; the domestic monetary policy has an important impact on systemic financial risk, and the impact of quantitative money supply is more direct; the impact of the foreign monetary policy on systemic financial risk during the financial crisis was strong but was steadily weakening.
投资者动机对众筹投资决策的影响
李连梦 吴 青 申立敬
基于慈善理论，投资者动机分为内源动机、外源动机和提升声誉动机，这些动机既能影响众筹投资者的投资决策，也会相互影响。本文借助“众筹网”的投资数据，对投资者进行分类，考察投资者动机对众筹决策的影响。研究结果显示外源动机投资者、提升声誉动机投资者的投资金额更高；进一步探究内源动机与声誉动机的相互影响，结果显示二者负相关，内源动机投资者更关注内心满足，而对声誉需求较少。该研究可以辅助筹资者设置项目内容吸引不同动机投资者，并帮助众筹平台优化服务，从而提高项目融资效率和成功率。
Based on the theory of charity, the investor motivations are divided into endogenous motivation, exogenous motivation and reputation-promotion motivation. These motivations could affect the crowdfunding investors’ investment decisions and also affect each other. Based on the investment data of “Crowdfunding Network”, the authors of this paper classify the investors and investigate the influence of investor motivation on crowdfunding decision. The results of the paper show that the investment amount from exogenous motivation investors and reputation-promotion motivation investors is greater; the further exploration, shows that the interaction between endogenous motivation and reputation-promotion motivation are negatively related, and endogenous motivation investors are more concerned with inner satisfaction, and less with reputation.
地方政府债务影响金融风险的传导机制——基于房地产市场和商业银行视角的研究
马树才 华 夏 韩云虹
本文基于房地产市场和商业银行双重视角，利用2005-2017年省级面板数据和中介效应模型，实证检验地方政府债务对金融风险的风险传递关系和传导路径。实证结果显示，地方政府债务规模扩张的财政风险转化为房地产市场风险和商业银行风险；同时，土地财政、信贷扩张和影子银行是地方政府债务风险的传导路径。为防范金融风险与化解地方政府债务风险，应降低金融部门与地方政府债务的关联，厘清金融与财政的关系。
From the perspective of real estate market and commercial banks, the authors of this paper use the 2005-2017 provincial panel data and mediation effect model to empirically test the transmission relationship and path of local government debt to financial risk. The empirical results show that the fiscal risk of local government debt expansion is transformed into the risks of real estate market and commercial banks; at the same time, land finance, credit expansion and shadow banking are the transferring paths of the risk of local government debt. In order to prevent financial risk and resolve the risk of local government debt, it’s needed to reduce the relevance between the financial sector and local government debt, clarify the relationship between finance and fiscal affairs.