新冠疫情背景下人民币国际化的新机遇
张礼卿
New Opportunities for RMB Internationalization in the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic
ZHANG Li-qing
Libra的监管挑战——基于金融创新视角的研究
巴曙松 王 珂 朱元倩
The Regulatory Challenges of Libra——A Research from the Perspective of Financial Innovation
BA Shu-song, WANG Ke, ZHU Yuan-qian
国际反洗钱监管最新趋势及中资银行应对建议
邱牧远
Latest Trends in International Anti-Money Laundering
Regulations and Recommendations to Chinese Banks
QIU Mu-yuan
全球信用风险短期冲击对中国的溢出效应
刘志洋 孟祥璐
The Spillover Effect of Global Short-Term Credit Risk Shocks on China’s Financial Markets
LIU Zhi-yang, MENG Xiang-lu
中国金融控股公司的风险透视与监管应对——兼论中国金融监管的主框架
温长庆
The Risk Analysis of China’s Financial Holding Companies and the Regulatory Policies——A Discussion about the Main Frame of China’s Financial Regulation
WEN Chang-qing
企业履行社会责任影响因素研究——基于管理人员研究经历的视角
吴卫星 王晨宇 屈源育
A Research on Factors Affecting the Performance of Corporate Social Responsibility——From the Perspective of Listed Company Manager’s Research Experience
WU Wei-xing, WANG Chen-yu, QU Yuan-yu
投资者情绪如何影响公司股价？
马 勇 杨雯葳 姜伊晴
How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Company Stock Price?
MA Yong, YANG Wen-wei, JIANG Yi-qing
金融周期波动下银行流动性缓冲调整行为研究——来自美国银行业的经验证据
刘 琦
A Behavior Analysis of Bank Liquidity Buffer Adjusting in Financial Cyclical Fluctuations——Evidence From the US Banking Industry
LIU Qi
新冠疫情背景下人民币国际化的新机遇
张礼卿
受新冠疫情冲击，全球金融市场剧烈波动。作为应对，美联储祭出了无上限的量化宽松货币政策，此政策在未来几年将持续影响全球金融市场的稳定，同时也给人民币国际化带来新的机遇。在新形势下推进人民币国际化，必须防止中国经济增速下滑过快，进一步深化金融改革和扩大对外开放，加强国际经济与金融合作；充分利用G20政策对话平台，推动疫情防控和相关政策的国际合作，扩大以人民币计价的双边货币协议签订及人民币在“亚投行”和“金砖银行”贷款中的使用机会，加强与“一带一路”倡议沿线国家人民币业务合作。
With the shock of the novel coronavirus epidemic, there has been great fluctuations in the global financial market. As a response, the US Federal Reserve has launched the quantitative easing infinity, which would impact the stability of global financial market in the next few years and bring new opportunities to RMB internationalization. To promote RMB internationalization in this new situation, it is necessary to prevent the rapid slowdown of China’s economic growth, deepen financial reform and opening up, and strengthen international cooperation in finance and economy; it is also needed to make full use of the G20 dialogue platform, push forward international cooperation in epidemic prevention and policy-making, promote the RMB-denominated bilateral currency agreements and RMB loans in the AIIB and BRICS Bank, and strengthen RMB business cooperation in Belt and Road countries.
Libra的监管挑战——基于金融创新视角的研究
巴曙松 王 珂 朱元倩
Libra作为一项重要的金融科技创新，有望成为区块链和数字货币大规模实质性应用时代的开篇，具备颠覆全球货币金融体系的潜力，但能否真正落地取决于监管。因兼具私人数字货币和金融创新的双重属性，Libra面临多重监管挑战。在监管、市场和技术的不确定性背景下，本文从金融创新的视角分析Libra对货币政策及金融稳定的潜在冲击，探讨Libra受到广泛争议的原因，并尝试寻找金融科技监管的发展路径，就此把握金融科技监管的新范式以寻求科技创新和监管的平衡，或可找到当前监管困局的突破口。
As a fintech innovation, Libra is expected to start the new era of large-scale and substantial application of block chain and digital currency, and rebuild the global financial system. However, its implementation depends on the regulation, due to its dual nature as a private digital currency and financial innovation. With the uncertainty of regulation, market and technology and from the perspective of financial innovation, this paper analyzes Libra’s potential shocks to monetary policies, financial stability and the reasons for its disputes, and seeks for a new paradigm of fintech regulation, and balances regulation and innovation.
国际反洗钱监管最新趋势及中资银行应对建议
邱牧远
国际反洗钱监管呈现出以下最新趋势：反洗钱内涵扩大，与国家战略利益联系日益紧密；监管渠道和监管对象拓宽；监管前移，KYC成为重点；执法力度趋严。中资银行反洗钱监管压力增大，内部原因包括合规意识不强、信息系统建设滞后、制度缺失、人才不足等，外部原因则包括中资银行国际地位上升，欧美国际推行保护主义和单边主义。为有效防范、化解并处置境外反洗钱合规风险，中资银行应全面提高合规意识和能力水平，建立差异化的反洗钱合规管理体系，提升金融科技的支持能力，设立专业团队，总结经验依法维权，积极参与国际交流。
The international anti-money laundering supervision shows the following trends lately: the connotation of anti-money laundering is expanding, and it is increasingly connected with national strategic interests; the supervision channels and supervision targets are widening; the supervision is moving forward, and KYC has become the focus; law enforcement has become stricter. The pressure of anti-money laundering supervision on Chinese banks has increased. Internal reasons include weak compliance awareness, lagging information system construction, lack of systems, and insufficient talents. External reasons include the rise in Chinese banks’ international status, the Europe and the United States promoting protectionism and unilateralism. In order to effectively prevent and resolve the overseas anti-money laundering compliance risks, Chinese banks should comprehensively improve compliance awareness and ability, establish a differentiated anti-money laundering compliance management system, improve fintech support capabilities, set up professional teams, summarize experiences in safeguarding legal rights, and actively participate in international communication.
全球信用风险短期冲击对中国的溢出效应
刘志洋 孟祥璐
本文以中国上市金融机构为代表，运用KMV模型和GARCH-MIDAS模型分别计算出金融机构加权平均倒闭概率和信用衍生产品指数短期波动率，使用向量自回归模型的脉冲反应函数构建风险传染指数，研究发现：第一，澳大利亚信用风险对中国证券业、中国金融控股公司影响显著；第二，欧洲高波动率指数信用风险对中国证券业、信托业和控股公司影响显著；第三，新兴市场国家信用风险和北美债券信用风险对中国银行业的风险溢出效应较高；第四，日本对中国金融市场风险影响很小。
Based on the sample of listed financial institutions in China, the authors of this paper measure the weighted average closure probability of financial institutions and short-term volatility of credit derivative index with the KMV model and GARCH-MIDAS model, and construct a risk contagion model with the impulse response function in vector auto regression model. It is found that: (1) Australia’s credit risks significantly influence China’s securities industry and financial holding companies; (2) the credit risks of high volatility index in Europe significantly influence China’s securities industry, trust industry and financial holding companies; (3) the credit risks of emerging countries and the bond credit risks of North America have high spillover effects on China’s banking industry; (4) Japan has little influence on the risks of China’s financial markets.
中国金融控股公司的风险透视与监管应对——兼论中国金融监管的主框架
温长庆
金融市场的对外开放和自由竞争加速了中国金融控股公司在分业监管框架内的适应性变革，其风险已经不再局限于混业风险；外部监管滞后和内部治理不健全有特殊的制度、市场、国情诱因。中国金融监管体制应当构建“伞形+双峰”的监管主框架，在既有的分业机构监管基础上，引入功能监管和机构监管相协调的监管机制；内部治理路径包括公司治理、股东资格、市场自律机制和信息披露规则。互联网金融控股公司的监管应当从技术和市场双轮驱动的特殊性出发，构建综合监管框架，适当引入监管外包等创新性监管手段。
The opening up and free competition of the financial market have accelerated the adaptive reform of China’s financial holding companies within the regulatory framework of separate regulation, and the risks are no longer limited to those of mixed operation; The causes of lagging external regulation and imperfect internal governance lie in the special system, market, and national conditions. China’s financial regulatory system should be built into a main regulatory framework with“umbrella + dual peak”, and introduce a regulatory mechanism in which functional regulation and institutional regulation are coordinated; the internal governance paths include corporate governance, shareholder qualification, market self-regulation mechanism and information disclosure rules. The regulation of Internet financial holding companies should be based on the particularity of the two-wheel drive of technology and market, build a comprehensive regulation framework, and appropriately introduce innovative regulation methods such as regulation outsourcing.
企业履行社会责任影响因素研究——基于管理人员研究经历的视角
吴卫星 王晨宇 屈源育
本文基于2009-2017年沪深A股上市公司数据，实证分析企业管理人员研究经历对企业社会责任履行的影响。研究发现，企业管理人员研究经历会对其任职企业社会责任履行起到显著的促进作用，这一结论经过内生性检验后依然稳健。从作用机制上看，企业管理人员研究经历提高了企业会计稳健性；进一步地，企业管理人员研究经历对企业社会责任履行的促进效应在处于高污染行业的企业中更为突出。
Based on the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies during 2009-2017, the authors of this paper empirically analyze the impacts of manager’s research experience on the performance of corporate social responsibility. It’s found that the research experience of managers will play a significant role in promoting the performance of the corporate social responsibility, and this conclusion is still stable in the endogenous testing. From the perspective of the affecting mechanism, the research experience has improved the accounting conservatism of companies; the further research shows that this positive effect is more significant in listed companies in highly polluting industries.
投资者情绪如何影响公司股价？
马 勇 杨雯葳 姜伊晴
本文通过构建投资者情绪指数，研究投资者情绪变化对公司股价变化的影响。基于2003- 2017年中国A股月度数据的实证结果显示，投资者情绪因子的加入可以进一步提升定价模型的有效性，这说明中国股票市场的定价并不完全由公司基本面决定，而是存在较为明显的情绪推动因素。进一步的分行业回归结果显示，投资者情绪的存在进一步强化周期性行业公司股价的顺周期性表现，并与非周期性行业公司股价的表现之间存在一定程度的“跷跷板”效应。
The authors of this paper research the impact of changes in investor sentiment on the company stock price by constructing an investor sentiment index. The empirical results based on the monthly data of China’s A-shares during 2003-2017 show that the introduction of the investor sentiment factors can further improve the effectiveness of the pricing model, which means that the pricing of the Chinese stock market is not entirely determined by the company’s fundamentals, but there are relatively obvious emotional drivers. The results of industry regression show that the existence of investor sentiment further strengthens the pro-cyclical performance of stock prices of cyclical industry company, and there is a certain degree of “seesaw effect” between the performance of cyclical industry company and that of non-cyclical industry company.
金融周期波动下银行流动性缓冲调整行为研究——来自美国银行业的经验证据
刘 琦
本文研究金融周期波动下银行流动性缓冲的调整行为，并采用1999-2018年美国4 719家银行的季度面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明：第一，银行持有流动性缓冲具有明显的顺周期效应；第二，银行业务特征会影响流动性缓冲的周期性调整：核心存款占比越高、贷款承诺越多的银行波动幅度越大；而批发融资占比越高、对证券化依赖程度越深的银行波动幅度越小；第三，实施LCR监管所带来的改善具有局限性，未纳入监管范围和压力时期的银行顺周期性依然显著。
This paper studies the adjustment behaviors of bank liquidity buffer, and empirically tests the effect with the quarterly panel data of 4 719 banks in the US during 1999-2008. The results show that (1) banks liquidity buffer is obviously pro-cyclical; (2) bank’s business characteristics would affect the cyclical adjustment of liquidity buffer: banks with higher ratio of core deposit and more loan commitments have larger fluctuations, while banks with higher ratio of wholesale financing and greater dependence on securitization have smaller fluctuations; (3) the benefit of LCR supervision is limited, and bank’s pro-cyclicality is still significant when the bank is without supervision or under pressure.