“一带一路”绿色金融（投资）指数研究
中国工商银行带路绿色指数课题组
A Research on the Belt and Road Green Finance (Investment) Index
The Study Group of the Belt and Road Green Index of ICBC
信贷、房价、股价及GDP的关系——基于TVP-VAR方法的分析
刘 璐 王晋斌 郝超鹏
Relationships among Credit, House Price, Stock Price and GDP——An Analysis Based on TVP-VAR Method
LIU Lu, WANG Jin-bin, HAO Chao-peng
区块链技术与信托租赁业融合发展机制
王定祥 覃 维
Integrative Development of Blockchain Technology and Trust Lease
WANG Ding-xiang, QIN Wei
信贷期限错配视角下企业金融化动因分析
俞毛毛 马妍妍
A Motivation Analysis of Enterprise Financialized Investment
from the Perspective of Credit Maturity Mismatching
YU Mao-mao, MA Yan-yan
已婚女性劳动参与对家庭风险资产配置的影响
徐小华 吴恩平 王 琪
The Impact of Married Women’s Labor Participation on Household Risk Asset Allocation
XU Xiao-hua, WU En-ping, WANG Qi
国际油价不确定性对中国股票市场的影响——基于成品油定价改革前后的对比分析
李素梅 李兆军 刘 通 苏宏波
The Impact of the Uncertainty of International Oil Price on Chinese Stock Markets——An Analysis Based on the Comparison Before and After Refined Oil Pricing Reform
LI Su-mei, LI Zhao-jun, LIU Tong, SU Hong-bo
险资介入、投资者情绪与股价崩盘风险
郝芳静 孙 健 谢远涛
Insurance Funds Intervention, Investor Sentiment and Stock Price Crash Risk
HAO Fang-jing, SUN Jian, XIE Yuan-tao
社会信任与个人贷款供给行为
董诗涵
Social Trust and Personal Loan Supply Behaviour
DONG Shi-han
“一带一路”绿色金融（投资）指数研究
中国工商银行带路绿色指数课题组
本文在全面搜集、整理各国数据的基础上，构建“一带一路”绿色金融（投资）指数，对“一带一路”沿线79个国家的绿色经济表现和绿色发展能力进行测算。结果显示，“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色发展水平和能力差异较大，各国未来增长的环境、资源压力巨大。为应对上述挑战，“一带一路”沿线各国在未来发展中应按照自身资源禀赋与现实条件，制定差异化的绿色发展策略。金融机构应积极践行绿色负责任投资理念，通过创新引领资金流向“一带一路”的绿色产业和绿色项目。
On the basis of comprehensively collecting and collating the data of 79 countries along the Belt and Road, this paper constructs the Belt and Road Green Finance (Investment) Index, and measures the green economic performance and green development capacity. The results show that the green development levels and capabilities of countries along the Belt and Road vary greatly, and the pressure on the environment and resources for future growth in various countries is great. In order to cope with the above challenges, the countries along the Belt and Road should develop differentiated green development strategies based on their own resource endowments and realistic conditions in their future development; the financial institutions should actively comply with the concept of green and responsible investment, and lead the flow of funds to the Belt and Road green industries and green projects through innovation.
信贷、房价、股价及GDP的关系——基于TVP-VAR方法的分析
刘 璐 王晋斌 郝超鹏
本文使用TVP-VAR方法从时变角度对信贷、房价、股价和GDP之间的关系进行实证研究。研究发现：（1）中国信贷扩张仅在特殊时期大幅拉升房价，对股价短期波动影响显著，能够提升GDP。（2）房价提升促使信贷收紧，对股价短期波动影响显著，对GDP的作用在2012年10月左右由正转负。（3）股价上升会拉升信贷，对房价也有拉升作用，对GDP则有轻微的负向作用。
With the TVP-VAR method, the authors of this paper empirically study the time-varying relationships among credit, house price, stock price and GDP. It is found that: (1) China’s credit expansion increases house price in special period only, significantly influences the short-term stock price volatility, and improve GDP; (2) increasing house price tightens credit, has a significant influence on the short-term stock price volatility, and its impact on GDP turns from positive to negative since October, 2012; (3) rising stock price increases credit and house price, but has a slightly negative influence on GDP.
区块链技术与信托租赁业融合发展机制
王定祥 覃 维
信托租赁业的主要功能在于受托盘活闲置的资金或资产，以支持实体经济发展，但资金或资产委托方与代理方存在信息不对称等带来的信托风险问题，在一定程度上阻碍了信托租赁业的快速发展。本文基于区块链技术原理及技术特性，分析区块链技术与信托租赁业融合发展的前景与通道，探究区块链技术与信托租赁业融合发展的制度困境，据此提出促进区块链技术融入信托租赁业的机制重构及制度创新思路。
Trust lease industry is mainly to revitalize the idle capital or asset and support the real economy, however, its development is hindered by trust risk problems for the information asymmetry between the principal and agent. The authors of this paper base on the theory and features of blockchain technology, analyse the prospect, approach and institutional difficulties of integrative development of blockchain and trust lease, and propose institutional innovation and system reestablishment to integrate blockchain into trust lease industry.
信贷期限错配视角下企业金融化动因分析
俞毛毛 马妍妍
本文利用A股上市公司2009-2017年的数据，在现有文献对于企业实体领域投融资期限错配动机及后果研究的基础上，运用非线性模型，结合金融化行为中的“脱实向虚”与“雪中送炭”特征，分析金融化投资的双重特征。研究发现：金融化投资存在“长贷短投”现象，在长期信贷超出门槛值后，体现出“脱实向虚”特征；金融化期限错配又能缓解实体领域的“短贷长投”问题、抑制过度投资，存在“雪中送炭”的合理性特征。
Based on the data of 2009-2017 A-share listed companies and the available studies of non-financial enterprise’s motivation and consequence of maturity mismatching in investment and financing, and with the nonlinear model, the authors of this paper analyse the dual features, the deviation from real economy and alleviation of fund shortage, in financialized investment behaviour. The results show that the long-term loan to finance short-term financial investment exists in the financialized investment, and it will show a feature of deviation from real economy while the long-term loans exceed the threshold value; the maturity mismatching could help alleviate the short-term loan to finance long-term financial investment and the deviation from real economy and curb over-investment, and shows a feature of alleviation of fund shortage.
已婚女性劳动参与对家庭风险资产配置的影响
徐小华 吴恩平 王 琪
本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据，以Probit和Tobit回归为基准模型，借助中介效应模型，实证研究已婚女性劳动参与对家庭风险资产配置的影响。研究结果表明：（1）已婚女性参与劳动会降低家庭参与风险市场的可能性，也会降低家庭风险资产比例；（2）健康水平、金融知识、城乡背景、自有房及风险爱好等特征不同，会使女性劳动参与对家庭风险资产配置的影响表现出异质性；（3）已婚女性劳动参与可以通过自有房、风险偏好渠道降低家庭风险资产配置，通过社会互动渠道提高家庭风险资产持有。
Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey and with the benchmark model of Probit and Tobit regression, and the mediation effect model, the authors of this paper empirically study the impact of married women’s labor participation on household risk assets allocation. The results show that: (1) married women’s labor participation would lower the probability of household participation in risk market, as well as the proportion of household risk assets; (2) the impact shows heterogeneity for women with different characteristics in heath condition, financial knowledge, urban or rural residence, home ownership and risk preference; (3) married women’s labor participation could reduce the household risk asset holding through home ownership and risk preference, and increase the holding through social interaction.
国际油价不确定性对中国股票市场的影响——基于成品油定价改革前后的对比分析
李素梅 李兆军 刘 通 苏宏波
本文以2000年1月7日至2018年12月28日的周频数据为样本，研究成品油定价改革前后国际油价不确定性对中国股市的影响。研究发现：（1）油改前国际油价不确定性对中国股市有负向影响，但不显著程度较大，油改后仍具有负向影响，但油改后油价不确定性对中国股市的影响程度加大；（2）油改前国际油价不确定性对中国股市影响逐渐减弱，而油改之后呈现出正负交叉影响，油改使中国股市面对国际油价冲击的反应呈现显著的差异性。
The authors of this paper use the weekly data during January 7, 2000-December 28, 2018 as samples to research the impact of the uncertainty of international oil prices on Chinese stock markets before and after the refined oil pricing reform. It's found that, (1) the uncertainty of international oil price before the reform has a negative impact on Chinese stock markets, and the significance is fairly small; after the reform, the impact is still negative but greater; (2) the impact on Chinese stock markets before the reform gradually weakens, and it shows a positive-negative cross effect after the reform; the reform causes a significant difference in the response of Chinese stock markets to international oil price shock.
险资介入、投资者情绪与股价崩盘风险
郝芳静 孙 健 谢远涛
本文以险资介入作为切入点，研究投资者情绪与股价崩盘风险的作用机理。运用2007-2016年上市公司的数据建立面板模型，研究发现：投资者情绪加大股价崩盘风险，二者呈正向关系；险资介入能够在投资者情绪过度高涨、股价有崩盘风险时稳定投资者情绪，在投资者情绪悲观时提高投资者情绪，防止发生股价崩盘风险，此效应在国企样本中更加明显。
With the insurance funds intervention as an entry point, this paper researches the interaction mechanism of investor sentiment and stock price crash risk. The authors of the paper establish a panel model based on the data of listed companies during 2007-2016, and find that the investor sentiment increases stock price crash risk, and their relationship is positive; the insurance funds intervention can stabilize investor sentiment when the investor sentiment is excessively high and the stock price is at crash risk, and can also increase the investor sentiment when the investor shows a pessimistic sentiment so as to prevent the stock price crash risk; this effect is more significant in the samples of state-owned enterprises.
社会信任与个人贷款供给行为
董诗涵
与现有的强调社会网络影响民间借贷的研究不同，本文研究个体社会信任水平与个人贷款供给行为之间的关系。运用CFPS（2014）微观数据，本文发现个体社会信任对个人贷款供给行为的影响主要集中在农村而非城市地区，且在正规金融不发达的农村，信任水平越高的债权人会提供更多的贷款；在社会信任水平影响下的父母辈个人贷款供给行为会影响下一代的贷款决策。
Unlike the studies of social network’s impact on private lending, this paper studies the relationship between individual social trust and lending behaviour. With the micro-data of CFPS (2014), it is found that the social trust’s impact on personal lending is more common in rural areas than urban areas, and lenders with more trust would offer more loan supply in rural areas with less developed formal finance. Under the influence of social trust, the lending behaviours of parents would affect the lending decision of their children.